To:
Jeff Hunter, Director, Office of Debt Management
From:
Drew Forbes, Treasury Desk, Daiwa Securities America
Eric Welles, Repo Desk, Daiwa Securities America
Re:
Securities Lending Facility
Date:
August 10, 2006
We strongly support the adoption of a securities lending facility at the Treasury
Department. We agree with the view that such a facility would minimize or eliminate
problems like those in 2003, thereby enhancing the efficiency and liquidity of the
Treasury securities market. Your counterargument about promoting moral hazard and
preempting private market solutions is well taken, but we suspect that usage of the
facility would be so limited that these would not be problems in practice.
The system described in your report is generally sound. We would like to highlight two
aspects that we view as essential ingredients of the final program.
First, the system
should be of the fixed-rate, variable-quantity type. This is the only type of system that
will adequately address issue shortages that might arise. Second, the implied repo rate
should be zero percent.
This will discourage unnecessary usage and make the system a
backstop rather than frequently used borrowing facility.
We recommend a change to another aspect of the system described in your memo.
Specifically, we feel that forward settlement and term transactions would discourage
usage and leave the system ineffective in countering many market disruptions. We feel
the system should offer same-day settlement and overnight lending as the core transaction.
Such a system would offer maximum flexibility and therefore be most effective in
remedying market imbalances. Some might argue that same-day settlement and
overnight borrowing might lead to abuse of the system or gaming by market participants.
However, we do not feel this will occur, as the zero percent repo rate would discourage
overuse and abuse.
Moreover, if the Treasury detected abuse, the problem could be
corrected with a verbal reprimand to the violating dealers and the imposition of
administered limits on their access to the facility.
We hope you find our comments useful. Please call if you have questions (212-6126800).
. Comments on Securities Lending Facility
General Comments: We support the Treasury’s goal of alleviating periods of chronic fails, such as the
2003 episode referenced in Treasury’s white paper, “Consideration Of A Proposed Treasury Securities
Lending Facility.”
As the Treasury mentions in its white paper, there exists the possibility that the creation of an SLLR
“would undermine or reduce private sector incentives to better (and perhaps more efficiently) resolve the
issues that the SLLR is intended to address.” We agree that this possibility exists, especially given steps
market participants have made in the past year. These steps include:
•
CBOT position limits instituted
•
CBOT margin requirements made more stringent
•
BMA Negative Rate Trading Guideline agreed-upon & released
The CBOT’s position limits appear to have reduced the likelihood of supply shortages in the CTD issues.
As for negative rate trading, it may be something that could use some time to develop (perhaps with more
BMA or Treasury prodding/involvement). If the market gets comfortable processing fails on negative-rate
trades, normal market incentives could work to avoid periods of chronic fails.
Also, a market-clearing price (& one in which there is significant incentive to make delivery) could also be
arrived at via other mechanisms that utilize the existing private market- such as formalizing ‘guaranteed
delivery’ (as opposed to 'prompt delivery') trades for which borrowers could ‘pay up’ to obtain greater
protection against failing to receive.
While ‘guaranteed delivery’ trades may never evolve, it is possible that the other recent changes (CBOT
position limits, BMA’s negative-rate trading guidelines) could work sufficiently well, given time and the
attention of market participants, to lessen the necessity of an SLLR.
Comments On Possible SLLR Structure: If the facility is created, we agree with Treasury’s stated
objective that the SLLR be structured such that “it would act as a form of ‘catastrophe’ insurance,” used
solely when chronic fails “threaten the overall functioning of the Treasury and broader financial markets.”
In addition, we agree that the facility should have minimal impact on the market when it is not being used.
Given that the market’s awareness of large supply being available at a certain rate can impact market
conditions for an issue (even when the supply is available at rates well below current market-clearing rates),
we have some comments on an SLLR’s structure. In our view, these characteristics could help achieve the
Treasury’s goals of limiting SLLR’s usage to periods of “extreme market disruption,” and ensuring that the
SLLR has limited impact on the market’s normal incentives & operations.
•
Settlement & term periods: T+5 (or perhaps a longer lag) & a 1-week+ term seem ideal.
o
The settlement lag could assist in alleviating May 2013-type chronic fails, yet be long
enough to limit usage to clearly dire situations.
If a prospective borrower decides not to
use the facility due to (for example) T+5 settlement - but would have if settlement had
been T+2 or T+3 - then the fail situation likely does not meet Treasury’s definition of
“acute and protracted fails.”
o
Lengthy forward-settlement & term periods would reduce the moral hazard mentioned by
Treasury in the white paper, that of excessive risk-taking as investors know they can be
‘bailed-out’ by the SLLR.
o
The market is more likely to get comfortable with negative-rate repo trading if the SLLR
does not set an effective ‘floor’ rate of zero. Longer settlement & term periods increase
. the likelihood that dealers will have a chance to become comfortable with the BMA’s
recommended negative-rate trading conventions.
•
Rate: Zero or lower; similar rationale as the comments on above regarding settlement & term
periods.
•
Reporting requirements: If the requirements mentioned in the white paper (“daily cash, repo, and
futures positions, and fails to deliver and receive in the security borrowed over an interval
bracketing the period of borrowing”) do not already infer this, then we also suggest requiring the
same information for the period immediately preceding the borrow request (perhaps for the prior
week). This could be beneficial in discouraging active or ill-intentioned use of the SLLR.
•
Right of substitution: We agree with the suggested bonds vs. bonds lending basis, however
offering borrowers the right of substitution may be an unnecessary trait of the transaction. While
likely desirable by those who borrow from the facility, the right of substitution may be an
accommodation that runs counter to the Treasury’s goal that the facility only being tapped in the
most extreme situations.
To wit: If the lack of right-of-substitution is what ultimately stops a
dealer from borrowing from the facility on a given day, then it is unlikely that the dealer’s
situation is the kind of acute, chronic need for which Treasury intends the facility be used.
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. Joseph Shatz
Senior Director, Government/FF&O Strategy
Merrill Lynch
4 World Financial Center, North Tower
New York, NY 10080
August 9, 2006
Jeff Huther
Director, Office of Debt Management
Room 2412, Department of the Treasury
1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20220
Re: Comments on Securities Lending Facility
Dear Jeff:
We strongly support the introduction of a Treasury securities lending facility and believe
that if it is implemented properly, the benefits could be substantial. The purpose of the
facility should be to relieve protracted fail situations associated with making delivery into
Treasury bond and note futures contracts such as with the 4.875% 2/15/12, catastrophic
events such as 9/11 which caused the Treasury to reopen the 5% 8/15/11, and other
extraordinary circumstances such as occurred with the 3.625% 5/15/13 as the result of
extremely low interest rates leading to a “low cost of fail”.
The potential benefits of a well constructed securities lending facility outweigh the
potential costs, in our opinion. We understand that there are some negatives associated
with its construction. For example, one unintended consequence of the facility could be
the possibility of a larger short base in some Treasuries because the shorts would know
that they can always borrow the security from the Treasury.
We also realize that there
are a number of issues to address from a legislative and regulatory perspective such as
changes in Treasury’s borrowing authority, debt limit accounting and tax treatment of
borrowed securities. Yet, a properly constructed securities lending facility will protect
the efficiency and liquidity of the Treasury market under extraordinary circumstances
which could otherwise impair its functioning. This will safeguard investor confidence in
the US Treasury markets and thus help fulfill Treasury’s objective of keeping borrowing
costs as low as possible over time.
Below we present our views on each of the design features discussed in the Treasury
Securities Lender of Last Resort (SLLR) Facility White Paper "Consideration of a
Proposed Securities Lending Facility." (referred to as “Proposed SLLR paper”
.
hereafter).1 In general, we agree with the large majority of the potential design features
of the facility suggested by Treasury in their paper.
Distribution Mechanism: Auctions versus Fixed-Rate (Price) Standing Facility
Securities borrowed from the SLLR, in our opinion, should be fixed in rate with the
quantity determined by the borrower. We believe that the Treasury should stand ready to
lend an unlimited amount of each issue through the facility. If the amount is limited, then
the facility will suffer from the same problem as the Fed SOMA securities lending
program; in situations where the market shortage is at an extreme, there will not be
enough supply available for lending to prevent protracted fails.
Rate, Maturity, Delivery and Reporting Options
The facility should be structured in a fashion that allows parties to borrow specific issues
versus effectively lending money at an implied repo rate that is relatively close to or at
zero. The rate should not be much above zero because the facility should not be designed
in a manner that will prevent issues from trading “on special” (i.e.
below general
collateral repo). Allowing issues to trade on special is an important natural function of
the market determined by supply and demand for individual issues. It is vital that any
securities lending facility does not interfere with the normal functioning of the market.
In order to ensure that borrowing from the facility will be economical only when delivery
fails in a security become chronic or systemic, we recommend a loan maturity of about
three to five days (unlike the UK non-discretionary repo facility which is overnight).
The
longer (shorter) the loan term, the less (more) the facility will likely be used by market
participants. We believe that a three to five day loan maturity strikes a reasonable
balance.
We recommend same day settlement/delivery to alleviate the liquidity problem as quickly
as possible. The Proposed SLLR paper discusses the possibility of a lengthy forward
settlement to discourage strategic use of the facility in implementing short-run trading
strategies, but we believe that the benefits of a rapid settlement process outweigh the
risks.
Finally, we agree that requiring borrowers to report daily positions and fails during the
borrowing period could be useful in guarding against inappropriate uses of the facility.
Collateral
We agree that the SLLR should lend securities on a ”bond-for-bond” basis (i.e.
borrower
must pledge other Treasury securities of equal market value, plus a margin, as collateral
to borrow securities from the facility) in order to avoid affecting Treasury’s cash position.
This is the method that the UK DMO non-discretionary repo facility uses successfully.
1
The UK Debt Management Office’s (DMO) non-discretionary repo facility, in our opinion, also provides
a relatively good example of how many features of the facility could be structured.
. Treasury should allow borrowers to substitute collateral while borrowing from the SLLR.
It is important to market participants to be able to substitute collateral in the event that the
original collateral begins to trade “on special” (i.e. below general collateral rates) or, for
example, if the borrower just needs back the original collateral to make delivery of that
specific issue to a counterparty. Inclusion of a tri-party arrangement in the SLLR (as
described in the Proposed SLLR paper) would be very helpful.
Available Securities
The SLLR should stand ready to lend supply of any existing Treasurys, not just specific
issues (e.g. on-the-run securities).
It is too difficult to anticipate in advance which issues
may have problems which require the use of the facility to address. For example, as the
Treasury bond and note futures quarterly contracts expire and new contracts are listed,
there are constantly new Treasuries which become the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD).
Borrowing Mechanics and Public Transparency
We agree that borrowing requests should be submitted to the NY Fed, and that the
aggregate daily volume of these requests by CUSIP should be promptly disclosed (with
the names of individual borrowers kept confidential).
Eligible Borrowers
Limiting direct participation in the SLLR to primary dealers, as discussed in the Treasury
proposal, makes sense from an operational standpoint for Treasury and the NY Fed.
Collateral Margin and Valuation
In order to protect Treasury, the amount of collateral (in market value of other Treasury
securities) required from the borrower should be equal to the market value of the security
borrowed plus some margin. This margin should be calculated as a percentage of the
market value of the security borrowed rather than as an absolute dollar amount.
The
collateral and the borrowed securities should be marked-to-market daily, and margin calls
should be made (or excess collateral returned) as required.
Borrowing Limitations
There should not be any limit on the amount of securities that can be borrowed by any
one participant, in our opinion. As long as there is daily reporting of borrowers’ cash,
repo, and futures positions to the Treasury/NY Fed, and also prompt public disclosure of
aggregate SLLR positions for each CUSIP (without disclosing positions of individual
borrowers), we do not feel there is a need to limit the amount that can be borrowed.
Rollovers/Loan Extensions
. We agree that it would not make sense to impose significant penalties if borrowers are
unable to return borrowed securities to Treasury on the closing leg of the lending
transaction. Extending the loan on a day to day basis at an effective implied repo rate of
zero percent (i.e. same way private fails are treated) seems appropriate.
Sincerely,
Joseph Shatz
Senior Director, Government/FF&O Strategy
Merrill Lynch
(212) 449-9196
Joseph_Shatz@ml.com
. Wrightson ICAP
Harborside Financial Center
Plaza V – 12th Floor
Jersey City, NJ 07311
Tel: (212) 815-6540
August 10, 2006
Mr. Jeff Huther
Director, Office of Debt Management
Room 2412
Department of the Treasury
1500 Pennsylvania Avenue
Washington, D.C. 20220
Re: Comments on Securities Lending White Paper
Dear Mr. Huther:
The proposed backstop securities lending facility would be a valuable tool for use
in resolving, and indeed forestalling, systemic breakdowns in the clearing process
for Treasury securities of the kind seen on several occasions in recent years.
The
Treasury delivery process has been smooth in recent quarters, but that does not
mean that the risk of logjams has evaporated. We strongly support the Treasury’s
efforts to design a low-impact mechanism for ensuring the efficiency of the
government securities clearing process. To that end, we have taken the liberty of
submitting below a previously published article on this subject in the form of a
public comment.
Sincerely,
Louis vB Crandall
Chief Economist
LC@Wrightson.com
.
Proposed Securities Lending Facility. We’re big believers in the old adage that “if ain’t
broke, don’t fix it”. However, we’re also big believers in an often-overlooked corollary to
that rule: “If it’s breakable, build a safety net”.
The current settlement system for Treasury securities is demonstrably breakable. The
severe delivery logjams that developed in 2003 and 2004 haven’t been repeated lately, but
the possibility of a recurrence cannot be ruled out.
The market has made tentative progress
toward facilitating negative-rate trading1, which might improve the elasticity of the supply
of collateral in the financing market during a squeeze, but that doesn’t mean that the threat
of future dislocations has been eliminated altogether.
There are several possible ways of responding to future squeezes. On the regulatory side,
the authorities might bring Treasury buy-in rules into line with those in effect in other,
less-favored markets, or they might find a way to force customers to cooperate with dealers
in industry-wide trade-netting round-robins in the event of a future logjam. Alternatively,
the Treasury might lower the bar for future snap reopenings in response to endemic
delivery fails.
All of these solutions seem heavy-handed. A backstop lending facility, in
contrast, would provide a temporary safety valve in the event that the clearing system
comes under serious pressure again in the future.
Unfortunately, the Treasury does not have the luxury of waiting until the need for such a
facility once again becomes obvious before moving forward. The process of obtaining the
necessary authorizations from
Congress and working out the
Total Weekly Delivery Fails in Treasury Securities to
operational details could easily
Primary Dealers
take a couple of years.
The
Sum of daily failures to receive at dealers
Treasury will have to start laying
In billions of dollars -- through July 12, 2006
the groundwork now if it wants
1,750
to have such a facility available
1,500
to deal with future cases of
settlement gridlock. The
1,250
Treasury will naturally be
1,000
cautious about tinkering with a
system that has not caused
750
problems in recent quarters, but
500
we suspect that concerns about
250
the lead-time involved will
persuade the Treasury to proceed
with the backstop lending
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
proposal.
In responding to the Treasury’s request for comments about how such a program should be
structured, the Street has to address one fundamental issue: how far “back” from the
market should a backstop facility be erected? Should the program be intended to be
tapped, say, once a month? Once a year? Once a decade? Treasury officials have said
Backstop Lending Facility Comment
Page 2/4
. that one possibility is to set the parameters of the program at levels that would make it
uneconomical for dealers to borrow securities in all but the most extreme circumstances.
Our own view is that borrowing from the facility should be expensive, but not
prohibitively so.
As some market participants have pointed out, capping the potential gains on a particular
trade may remove an incentive for investors to participate, which ultimately could hurt
liquidity. That’s a fair point about financial markets in general, and is relevant to the
Treasury market up to a point. For example, that is the reason why the Treasury is
scrupulous about not reopening securities opportunistically when markets are functioning
well. It wants to leave room for market-makers to smooth out the normal underwriting
swings in Treasury yields.
At the same time, though, concerns about capping these sorts of arbitrage gains are
probably less pertinent to active Treasury issues (on-the-runs, near on-the-runs, cheapest to
deliver, etc.) than to almost any other class of security.
Primary dealers report roughly half
a trillion dollars of Treasury coupon transactions each day. The vast majority of those
trades depend on the fact that individual Treasury securities don’t trade erratically relative
to nearby issues. The liquidity of active Treasury securities owes more to their role as
hedging instruments and trading vehicles than to the participation of speculative accounts
exploiting special situations in individual issues.
Placing boundaries on the potential mispricing of individual securities is not the main
objective of the Treasury’s proposal, but we don’t view it as a negative side effect.
A
lending facility with an effective borrowing rate set, say, at 800 or 1000 basis points below
the fed funds target would leave plenty of room for ordinary relative-value arbitrage while
protecting market-makers and other participants from the adverse effects of the most
severe dislocations.
Ultimately, however, the justification for this proposal rests on the need to ensure the
integrity of the market’s clearing mechanism. This is important in two respects:
Treasury market liquidity. The logjams that developed in 2003 and 2004 forced marketmakers to curtail their exposure, and raised questions about the reliability of the Treasury
market settlement process in general among suppliers of collateral to the sec lending
market.
In doing so, those disruptions posed a direct threat to the liquidity of the Treasury
market. A recent issue of our newsletter2 discusses the role played by the Fed’s securities
lending program in allowing dealers to make liquid markets in bills in the face of declining
supplies. We think a similar argument would hold for benchmark coupon issues in the
event of a new outbreak of delivery failures.
The inelasticity of supply in the issues that
are cheapest to deliver into futures contracts has already induced the CBOT to place endof-contract position limits on Treasury futures.3 Those sorts of constraints would
proliferate in less formal ways if a shift in market conditions were to produce a new
epidemic of delivery fails.
Backstop Lending Facility Comment
Page 3/4
. Financial market stability. Financial markets have been able to support breathtaking
increases in leverage in recent years by making more efficient use of collateral. That is
true of asset-backed securities and collateralized derivatives markets in addition to repos.
For a given level of capital, the amount of borrowing that can be done on a secured basis in
any sector is a large multiple of what can be done on unsecured terms. The stability of
today’s secured leverage system depends crucially on the timely, accurate posting of
collateral.
Anything that clogs the settlement system can result in collateral mismatches,
which represents a more serious systemic danger in the context of today’s balance sheet
practices than ever before. Furthermore, current trends suggest that the financial system’s
dependence on collateralized financial arrangements will only grow over time. In this
context, any obstacle to the smooth exchange of collateral poses unacceptable risks.
The
Treasury is unlikely to ignore the risk that the cascading delivery failures of 2003 and 2004
might re-appear, with more damaging results, in the future.
Nominal GDP and Total Domestic Credit Market Debt
Quarterly observations in trillions of dollars
45
40
Credit Market
Debt
35
30
25
20
15
10
GDP
5
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
1
http://www.bondmarkets.com/assets/files/Final%20Negative%20rate%20guideline.pdf
2
http://www.wrightson.com/mmo/2006/07/24/#Bills
3
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/docs/73604.pdf
Backstop Lending Facility Comment
Page 4/4
. 360 Madison Avenue
New York, NY 10017-7111
Telephone 646.637.9200
Fax 646.637.9126
www.bondmarkets.com
1399 New York Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20005-4711
Telephone 202.434.8400
Fax 202.434.8456
St. Michael’s House
1 George Yard
London EC3V 9DH England
Telephone 44.20.77 43 93 00
Fax 44.20.77 43 93 01
August 9, 2006
Mr. Jeff Huther
Director, Office of Debt Management
Room 2412
Department of the Treasury
1500 Pennsylvania Avenue
Washington, D.C. 20220
Re: Comments on Securities Lending Facility
Dear Mr.
Huther:
The Bond Market Association (the “Association”)1 appreciates the opportunity to comment on
the Department of the Treasury’s (“Treasury”) White Paper “Consideration of a Proposed
Treasury Securities Lending Facility” published in April 2006 (the “White Paper”). The
Association broadly supports the efforts of the Treasury to address proactively issues that may
compromise the high liquidity and efficiency in the market for U.S. Treasury Securities
(“Treasury Securities”).
Indeed, we believe, as noted in the White Paper, that the Treasury
market is an invaluable national asset.2 However, given the importance of the Treasury
market to the nation and financial markets globally, care should be taken to understand fully
the costs and benefits of introducing a securities lender of last resort facility (“Lending
Facility”) as outlined in the White Paper. A Lending Facility represents a significant
structural change in the Treasury market and, while it may add to the tools Treasury already
has to address certain market liquidity issues, the ancillary costs, in both increased moral
hazard and possible diminution of the specials premium, need to be considered and addressed
before moving forward with a Lending Facility.
We would also urge Treasury to consider the impact of both the continued study of a Lending
Facility and the implementation of such a facility on the market’s continuing efforts to
examine and recommend market-based solutions to the liquidity and systemic risks posed by
widespread and lasting fails in the Treasury market. We appreciate that Treasury has
consistently since August 2005 engaged market participants on whether this change is
advisable and we encourage Treasury, as it continues to study this option, to seek further
market participant input.
1
The Association represents securities firms and banks that underwrite, distribute and trade in fixed income
securities, both domestically and internationally.
Our members are also actively involved in the funding markets
for such securities, including the repurchase and securities lending markets. More information about the
Association and its members and activities is available on its website, www.bondmarkets.com. The Association
is expected to merge with the Securities Industry Association in November 2006.
2
See also Statement of Under Secretary for Domestic Finance Randal K.
Quarles to the Association’s Annual
Meeting, May 19, 2006 (“…[a]s we all know, the Treasury market is a critical national asset.”) at
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js4274.htm.
. Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 2
Executive Summary
Given the length of this letter we thought it would be helpful to highlight the Association’s
significant observations:
â–º The Association supports the objectives and principles outlined in the White Paper
for a Lending Facility but believes that it may be more efficient to address them in a way
other than through a Lending Facility. The question, put more broadly, is whether there has
been a market failure that can best be addressed through a government response, and whether
the liquidity of the Treasury market has been negatively impacted by chronic fails. We
believe that a governmental policy response is unwarranted because the market, as noted
throughout this letter, has made significant progress to address identified market anomalies
with respect to price and risk.
Indeed, we believe that there is no evidence that recent
incidents of chronic fails have negatively impacted the liquidity of the Treasury market. We
believe, as well, that the current regulatory framework for the treatment of aged fails,
including increased capital requirements and, in some cases, buy-in requirements provide
sufficient additional safeguards to manage the risks posed by chronic fails.
â–º The Association believes that while a Lending Facility may offer some marginal
protection from the risks posed by continuing widespread fails in the Treasury securities
market, on balance, the costs of setting up a Lending Facility and the potential ancillary
negative consequences to the normal trading environment outweigh the potential benefits.
â–º Changes in market practice and sensitivity to the risk issues raised in recent chronic
fails events have lessened the probability that such events will occur with any frequency.
â–º The market has adopted practices that, should a large-scale fails event occur, make
it less likely that such an event would continue for any significant length of time. The market
is also actively exploring and plans to implement market practices that will permit market
participants to manage any risk that aged fails pose.
â–º In addition, the Treasury has a number of current tools at its disposal that have
proved effective during past chronic fails events.
Since we believe that the risk of the
occurrence of widespread, chronic and long-lived fails events is remote, current Treasury tools
provide further protections against a fails event becoming the catalyst for an unprecedented
systemic breakdown in the Treasury securities market.
â–º Notwithstanding that we believe, on balance, that the costs of implementing a
Lending Facility outweigh the benefits, if the Treasury decides to move forward with a facility
care should be taken to address only the risks posed by an extreme market event. In no event
should the normal trading environment—an environment that yields the most liquid securities
market in the world – be compromised. Indeed, we believe that any Lending Facility should
only address catastrophic infrastructure failures that prevent normal settlement.
â–º The Association believes that Treasury should pay particular attention to pricing
issues.
In particular, to the maximum extent possible the market should be able to take
advantage of market-based pricing incentives, including negative rate repo pricing. Any
. Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 3
pricing formula should work on a coordinated basis with current market-based pricing
mechanisms.
â–º Other terms of the facility should reflect the expectation that the facility would be
used only in the most extreme circumstances which market participants expect to continue for
a significant period of time and which cannot be mitigated by available market practices.
Settlement timing and term of transaction should be such that market participants will find a
facility loan attractive only in extreme circumstances.
I. Background: Treasury Market Generally
The importance of the Treasury market to the global financial system cannot be overstated.
There is no fixed-income market that is more crucial to the global economy, nor more liquid,
than today’s primary and secondary market for U.S. government securities.3 U.S.
Treasury
securities exhibit a high level of liquidity with low transaction costs and no credit risk.4 The
liquidity of the Treasury market makes Treasury securities an important hedging vehicle
because dealers may sell Treasuries short with confidence of obtaining the shorted security.5
The ability to short Treasuries allows for efficient and transparent price discovery because it
allows dealers to manage their positions and thus quote two-way prices. The attractiveness of
the Treasury market is global in nature and, as cross-border capital flows increase, the
importance of a liquid Treasury market only increases.6
Treasury securities’ importance to individual investors and the federal government should also
not be underestimated. Many loan rates are set by reference to Treasury security yields.
As
the issuer of the world’s most liquid debt instrument, the Treasury –and thus U.S. taxpayers –
benefits from the presence of this liquid secondary market by receiving the lowest financing
costs available. As has been extensively noted, economists generally acknowledge that
market participants will pay a liquidity premium7 in order to obtain a particularly liquid
financial asset.8 The Treasury captures this premium whenever it auctions new securities.
3
For example, in the first half of 2006, daily trading volume as reported by the primary dealers in Treasury
securities averaged $ 547 billion.
See Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
http://www.ny.frb.org/pihome/statistics/.
4
Robert P. O’Quinn, “Economic Benefits from U.S. Treasury Securities,” Report of the Joint Economic
Committee, U.S.
Congress, 2nd Session, Feb. 2002 at 2 (“O’Quinn”); see also White Paper, Introduction.
5
Market participants who short a Treasury security may seek to cover the short in the repurchase (“repo”) and
securities lending market. Thus, an active repo and securities lending market in Treasury securities plays an
important role in our financial markets and our economy.
The Federal Reserve also uses the repo market in
Treasury securities to implement monetary policy.
6
Information on net purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds and notes by foreigners is available at
http://www.treas.gov/tic/tressect.txt.
7
See O’Quinn at 2-4; See also Association Comment Letter on Interagency White Paper on Structural Change in
the Settlement of Government Securities, available at http://www.bondmarkets.com/legislative/t108001_appenda.pdf.
8
A large and efficient Treasury market allows market participants to develop a “true” credit risk-free yield curve,
thereby facilitating more efficient pricing of financial instruments and allowing financial institutions to hedge
interest rate risk more effectively. Treasury securities also serve as a good source of collateral and funding for
swaps and other derivative transactions.
See O’Quinn.
. Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 4
It is not surprising, therefore, that Treasuries are the most widely held debt securities in the
world. It is also not surprising that protecting the liquidity premium associated with Treasury
securities is of paramount concern to the Treasury and to market participants. The
Association recognizes, therefore, that it is essential that every effort be made to ensure this
high efficiency and unique liquidity be preserved during both normal times and during times
of market stress.
Market participants have, in the past few years, enhanced operational
resiliency to address settlement disruptions, implemented trading practices -- both preemptive
and risk mitigating practices -- and worked with industry utilities to limit the risk of
widespread and chronic fails in the Treasury market. Work continues to be done and the
Association believes that the Lending Facility proposal contributes to the ongoing dialogue
between market participants and official policymakers.
II. Fails in the Treasury Securities Market
A.
Fails in the Normal Course
As the White Paper notes, Treasury market safety, liquidity and efficiency may be threatened
by elevated levels of fails associated with market dislocation, catastrophic operational
disruptions and very low interest rate environments. In order to address the risks posed by
elevated and chronic levels of fails, a broader understanding of fails in the normal course is
warranted.9
Fails to deliver contracted for securities occur in the Treasury securities market every day.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (“FRBNY”) began publishing weekly statistics on
fails in March 2004. The data includes historical information back to 1990.
This data shows
that fails occurred during every week in the period.10 Indeed, fails to deliver involving
Treasury securities averaged $11.4 billion per day during the period July 4, 1990 to July 7,
2006. Fails to receive averaged $12.9 billion per day over the same period. A graphic
presentation of the FRBNY’s fails data is included in Annex A to this letter.
Fails in a normal trading environment occur for a number of reasons.
Operational issues
cause the bulk of day-to-day fails. Incorrect trade details result in mismatches, but, generally,
these types of fails are resolved very quickly through communications between the
counterparties. These fails are usually fully resolved within a day or two of the originally
scheduled settlement date.
A market participant may also fail to deliver securities that it expected to receive from another
counterparty in a different transaction.
This original fail may occur for operational or other
reasons, but it can set off a chain of fails that, in some circumstances, returns to the original
failing party. Essentially what may happen is that Party A fails to deliver to Party B who then
fails to deliver to Party C who had failed to Party A. Given the speed at which transactions
occur in the Treasury market, a chain of fails or a round-robin of fails could involve a large
number of dealers.
9
This discussion draws on Michael Fleming’s and Kenneth Garbade’s, “Explaining Settlement Fails”,
September 2005, available at http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/cill-9.html.
10
See http://ww.newyorkfed.org/markets/pridealers_failsdata.html.
.
Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 5
Finally, parties may fail to deliver a security if they have little economic incentive to deliver
or to go to the market to borrow or otherwise obtain the security. This can occur as interest
rates become very low and the related cost of failing becomes very low. It becomes less
expensive to fail than to enter the repo or securities lending market to obtain the security
needed for delivery.
For these reasons fails never drop to zero and the fact that market participants have developed
conventions for resolving these fails quickly and efficiently contributes to the significant
liquidity enjoyed by the Treasury market.
Market participants know that slight operational
glitches will be resolved quickly. Market participants understand that minor operational
issues will not cause them significant and enterprise-wide harm so the incentive to participate
actively in the Treasury market remains high. For example, the market has developed a
convention allowing a failing seller to make delivery the next business day at an unchanged
delivery price.
This convention allows parties to resolve operational glitches quickly without
the threat of penalty, thus adding to the attractiveness of this market.
Fails data indicate that the gross level of fails even in normal trading environments in the
Treasury market has generally risen over the last five years. This is not surprising given the
significant growth in both the volume of trading in the cash and repo markets and the dramatic
growth in hedge fund community participation in the Treasury market, along with a
corresponding growth in prime brokerage clearance, over this time. The attached graph in
Annex B plots the settlement fails data against the rise in overall cash market trading volume.
Annex D shows the significant rise in repo transaction activity in the recent past.
The fact that fails never fall to zero and the ease with which market participants resolve them
does not indicate that fails do not impose costs on the failing party.
A failing seller loses the
use of the funds it would receive at settlement for the period of the fail. Generally, the seller
loses its ability to invest the funds in the general collateral repo market with a return roughly
equivalent to the Fed Funds rate. The loss of the time-value of the cash for the period of the
fail is usually (except in extraordinary market conditions) sufficient incentive for a failing
party to resolve fails quickly.
Thus, any Lending Facility should not seek to eliminate the
day-to-day fails that occur in the Treasury market as these fails pose no significant risk to the
market or to market participants and, indeed, contribute to the liquidity and efficiency of the
market by making the market operationally attractive and efficient.
B. Elevated and Chronic Levels of Fails
As illustrated by Annexes A and C, the FRBNY’s data on fails also show incidents of
significantly elevated levels of fails. Two prominent periods of elevated fails include the
period immediately after the 9/11 attacks and during the summer of 2003.
An examination of
each of these incidents, and the differing triggering events that led to them, is helpful to
understanding when a Lending Facility may be useful and any alternatives to a Lending
Facility.11
11
An additional period of elevated fails occurred during May/June 2005. This incident involved the security
cheapest-to-deliver into the Chicago Board of Trade’s (“CBOT”) June 2005 futures contract. Because the fails
in that instance resulted from a level of futures contracts that exceeded the supply of cheapest-to-deliver Treasury
securities, CBOT has imposed position limits on Treasury futures contracts.
See
http://www.CBOT.com/CBOT/docs/60840.pdf.
. Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 6
1. Settlement Fails After 9/11
Following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, fails in the Treasury market increased significantly,
caused, in large part, by operational and infrastructure problems at significant market
participants including inter-dealer brokers and the clearing banks.12 Fails had averaged $1.7
billion a day during the week prior to 9/11 but rose to approximately $190 billion a day during
the week of 9/19. This level is in sharp contrast with the previous fails high of $35 billion a
day during the week of May 16, 2001.13
On Thursday October 4, 2001, the Treasury announced that it would reopen an additional $6
billion of the on-the-run ten-year note thereby increasing the outstanding supply of the note to
$18 billion.
This was the first unscheduled snap auction of a coupon-bearing security since
the regularization of note and bond auctions in the late 1970s and early 1980s.14 Treasury
clearly had become concerned with the chronically high fails rate and particularly concerned
that a continued high-level of fails might begin to affect the performance and efficiency of the
market. Under Secretary Peter Fisher stated that “we want to reduce the risk that these
settlement problems turn into a much bigger problem to the Treasury market” and that “we
wanted to prevent technical problems in the back office from causing wider problems in the
pricing of government securities.”
The fails data suggests that the reopening had a direct and immediate impact on the level of
fails in the market. Daily average fails fell from $142 billion during the week ending October
3 to $63 billion the next week and then to about $18 billion in each of the following weeks.
The specials rate for the ten-year note also rose in the immediate aftermath of the reopening.15
While the reopening in 2001 appears to have been effective in lowering the gross level of
fails, Under Secretary Fisher was careful to alert the market that reopenings would be
extremely rare and that Treasury undertook such extraordinary measures only in response to
truly extraordinary conditions in the market.
Well after the situation had been resolved he
stated that “never is a long time, so it would be imprudent of me to say that the Treasury will
never again hold such an auction. But you should not count on it…We want to rely on
[market participants] to reconcile the forces of supply and demand.”16
12
While much of the increase in fails on 9/11 can be attributed to operational problems experienced by
significant market participants, including inter-dealer brokers and the clearing banks, there is evidence that some
market participants, reacting to the geo-political uncertainty, chose to increase cash balances and withhold
Treasury securities from the lending market. This withholding of supply further hampered liquidity.
See
“Summary of ‘Lessons Learned’ and Implications for Business Continuity”. Discussion Notes a2 (Feb. 13.
2002), available at http://www.sec.gov/divisions/marketreg/lessonslearned.htm.
13
A full account of fails and settlement problems after 9/11 is available in Garbade’s and Fleming’s, “When the
Back Office Moved to the Front-Burner: Settlement Fails in the Treasury Market after 9/11”
(“Fleming/Garbade”), available at http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/02v08n2/0211flem/0211flem.html.
This discussion of the 9/11 fails incident draws on that account.
14
See Fleming/Garbade.
15
See Fleming/Garbade.
16
Remarks by Under Secretary Fisher before the Association’s Legal and Compliance Conference, January 8,
2002, available at http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/po906.htm.
.
Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 7
After 9/11 all market participants, including the clearing banks and settlement utilities,
significantly upgraded backup facilities and operational resiliency. The Association believes
that had these operational backups been in place before 9/11, the operationally caused
settlement fails would not have occurred in significant size and would not have persisted for
an extended period.
2. Fails during the Summer of 2003
Early in the summer of 2003 short-term interest rates reached their lowest level in forty-five
years.
By June of 2003 the Fed Funds target rate had been reduced to 1% (and thus the
general collateral repo rate hovered around 1%). Interest rate expectations, though, were
changing and intermediate-term yields rose sharply. In response, hedging activity,
particularly with the on-the-run ten-year note, increased sharply.
Market participants believed
that rates would increase. In order to cover short positions, market participants looked to the
repo market and the increased demand forced the specials rate on the on-the-run-ten year note
down. In addition, the FRBNY had a relatively small position in this note, and thus had a
limited supply to lend to the street through its securities lending program.17
Given that the Fed Funds/general collateral rate hovered around 1%, the rate at which special
securities traded did not have far to go before the rate hit zero.
As the specials rate approached
zero there was little incentive to borrow the note to cover short positions. In fact, those
shorting the on-the-run security were buying a low cost option on the expected rise in repo
rates. If the specials rate rose they would benefit, but if rates remained static there was no, or
very little, cost to continued fails.
As long as the specials rate remained at or very near zero,
leveraged market participants had strong incentives to add to short positions, thus adding to
the fails in the market.
In addition, some market participants with large positions were reluctant to lend into the
market because they questioned whether securities could be returned. Thus, less supply –
supply that could have alleviated supply/demand imbalances – was available for delivery.
The Association has engaged in educational efforts since 2003 –particularly in Asia – to
describe for holders of large positions in Treasury securities the dynamics of the Treasury
market. We believe that these efforts have encouraged these holders to participate actively in
the Treasury lending and repo markets.
III.
Chronic Settlement Fails and the Market Response
The Association shares Treasury’s concern with maintaining the deep liquidity and efficient
market-pricing mechanism that characterizes secondary trading in Treasury securities and
does not want to see a repeat of the chronic fails situation that developed in 2003.
To that end
the Association has worked with its members to address chronic fail issues with respect to
risk, pricing and liquidity.
Indeed, the Association has focused its efforts on developing preemptive practices that would
make it unlikely that a significant fails event would occur. As noted extensively in studies of
17
Information on FRBNY’s portfolio for lending is at http://ww.neyworkfed.org/markets/soma/tnotes.html.
. Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 8
the 2003 incident, our members suffered a number of consequences as fails continued to
remain unresolved. Most particularly, regulatory capital requirements imposed lost
opportunity costs on dealers as capital requirements increased.18 Firm personnel spent
significant time in back-office and industry-wide attempts to resolve fails. In addition,
customer relations became strained as fails to receive and deliver in customer transactions
increased.
The Association agrees with Under Secretary Fisher’s remarks in discussing the snap
reopening after the 9/11 attacks: “We want to rely on [market participants] to reconcile the
forces of supply and demand.” To this end, the Association has instituted a number of
initiatives that we believe will -- collectively, materially and preemptively -- reduce the risk of
a chronic fails situation from developing and will, should a chronic fails event develop,
provide the market-based solutions, incentives and pricing that will help reduce chronic aged
fails and manage the risk posed by such fails.
We have worked closely as well with the Fixed
Income Clearing Corporation (“FICC”) on initiatives to reduce fails at the clearing
corporation level. The Association believes that these mechanisms address the specific
concerns that have led Treasury to explore the Lending Facility. We believe that had the
recently developed mechanisms been in place prior to the 2003 event, that event would, most
likely, not have occurred to the same extent.
A.
Prompt Delivery Repo Trading Practice
The Association, through its Funding Division Executive Committee, published a trading
practice guideline for “prompt delivery” repo trading in the fall of 2004. The guideline allows
market participants to more easily source securities in situations where a particular
government security is experiencing high levels of settlement fails. The guideline encourages
entities with supply to make a security available by allowing for cancellation of a transaction
without penalty if the seller fails to deliver within the prescribed 15 minutes.
Prompt delivery
trades now are available to market professionals when market conditions warrant and increase
when shortages occur in the market, as was the case with fails associated with the CBOT 10year futures contract in the summer of 2005.19
B. Negative Rate Repo Trading Practice
The Funding Division of the Association approved a Negative Rate Repo Trading Practice.
Published in March 2006, the trading practice enables the pricing of a repo transaction in a
negative rate trading environment, and standardizes practices regarding failure to deliver on a
repo transaction where the Repo Rate is negative. The mechanism described in the trading
practice consists of resetting the Pricing Rate to the absolute value of the original negative
Pricing Rate (i.e.
negative rate 1 is reset to positive rate 1) upon the failure to deliver in the
opening leg of a repo. If during the term of a Negative Rate Repo for which the Seller has not
delivered the securities and the Buyer has not exercised its right to declare a default, the Seller
delivers the securities subject to the transaction, the Pricing Rate will revert to the originally
18
See 17 C.F.R. 240.15c3-1.
The prompt delivery trading practice is available at
http://bondmarkets.com/assets/files/Revised%20Repo%20Trading%20Practices%20Guidelines.pdf.
19
.
Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 9
agreed upon Pricing Rate (i.e., the negative rate) but only for the remaining term of the
transaction. The Association believes that this trading practice will promote liquidity by
allowing market participants to continue to participate in the market during periods when rates
for a particular security go negative, and by encouraging market participants who act as a
Seller in negative rate repo transactions to deliver the underlying security. The Association
has discussed the trading practice with the FICC to ensure its operational capability to flip
repo pricing rates.20
We believe that a robust negative rate repo market, with clearly defined practices, addresses
one of the significant contributing factors to the elevated fails levels of 2003 and can be used
to source and price securities whenever supply and demand imbalances dictate that a
significant premium be paid for a particular security.
In addition, the Association’s negative
rate repo trading practice when combined with other incentives that raise the costs of
continued failing (such as increased capital requirements for aged fails, increased labor costs
and fraying customer relationships), should encourage market participants that would view a
negative rate trade as uneconomic (and thus continue to fail) to source securities at a negative
rate. During the summer of 2003, market participants were reluctant to enter into such trades
as the repo buyer, because under conventions in place at the time, repo sellers would have a
free option to fail and still get the benefit of negative rate financing. Clarifying the trading
conventions will specifically encourage buyers to seek securities in the repo market in a way
that didn’t occur in 2003.
Had there been clarity around the trading conventions for negative
rate repo transactions prior to 2003, we believe that that fails incident would, most likely, not
have occurred to the same extent.
C. Fails Margining
The Association, through its Government and Federal Agency Securities and Funding
Divisions, continues actively to pursue fails margining as a method to reduce the credit
exposures to which firms may become subject during prolonged fails events. These credit
exposures become acute if a fail event crosses a coupon payment date and the market value of
a security changes materially.
Discussions are active in the Executive, Legal and Operations
committees of the Divisions regarding the business, legal, operations and systems issues
associated with margining fails. Fails margining and the legal infrastructure needed to
implement fails margining will be reviewed by the Funding Division Legal Advisory
Committee and the Government Division Legal and Compliance Committee in connection
with a revision to master trading documentation. The groups are currently considering a
trading practice that would recommend margining of fails that have aged beyond a set time
limit.
The Association believes that a fails margining trading practice can be available by the
end of 2006.
D. Buy-in Procedures for Government Securities
The Government and Funding Divisions have embarked on an initiative to review and update,
as appropriate, the Association’s Buy-in Procedures for Government Securities. Specifically,
20
The negative rate trading practice is available at
http://www.bondmarkets.com/assets/files/Final%20Negative%20rate%20guideline.pdf.
.
Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 10
as has been discussed with Treasury staff, the Association continues to investigate whether to
update its procedures to provide for a mandatory cash settlement of transactions that have
been in a fail status for an extended period of time. The Association believes that a
mandatory cash settlement will close-out transactions that remain on dealers’ books, reduce
risk, minimize increased capital requirements, and decrease significantly operational labor
costs.21 We expect to publish an Exposure Draft of revised buy-in procedures by the end of
the third quarter of 2006.
E. Operational Resiliency
As noted above, subsequent to 9/11 all market participants, including the clearing banks and
settlement utilities, significantly upgraded backup facilities and operational resiliency.
The
Association believes that these efforts reduce the potential for widespread operational and
settlement failures similar to those that occurred after the 9/11 attacks.
F. FICC Changes
The Association has encouraged FICC to fully implement its fails netting service. The net
settlement system of FICC’s Government Securities Division (“GSD”) is being modified to
include all daily outstanding failed settlement obligations in GSD’s regular overnight netting
process.
After such modification, each participant’s fail obligations for the current business
day will be netted with its other government securities transactions having the same CUSIP
number and the next business day’s settlement date. A fail will therefore be outstanding for
only one day on GSD’s books before entering the net settlement cycle for the next settlement
date. Implementation of this service will eliminate clearance obligations by netting
outstanding fails versus new activity, thereby lowering clearance costs and reducing
participant risk exposure stemming from outstanding fail positions.
FICC’s implementation
for the fails netting service is slated for September 2006.22
IV. Lending Facility
In August of 2005, Treasury announced at its Quarterly Refunding that it was exploring the
possibility of developing a backstop securities lending facility and solicited dealer input. The
concept was also discussed at meetings of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee.23 In
April 2006, Treasury provided more detail with a straw man proposal for a facility and asked
for input on fundamental questions regarding a potential facility.
Specifically Treasury asked
for comment on the question of whether establishment by Treasury of a Lending Facility
would be an appropriate response to the potential threat of market dislocation, catastrophic
operational disruptions and complications associated with historically low interest rates. As
21
The Association previously submitted to the Treasury recommendations with respect to the buy-in rules for
Treasury securities. The letter is available at
http://www.bondmarkets.com/assets/files/letter_to_treasury_re_fails.pdf.
22
See the FICC Important Notice available here: http://www.ficc.com/gov/notices/GOV159.05.htm?NS-query.
23
The Treasury Borrowing Committee minutes for August 2005 and November 2005 are available at
http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/adv-com/minutes/.
.
Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 11
described in the White Paper, Treasury continues to be concerned that these types of events
could lead to distorted prices in the Treasury cash, derivative and collateral markets, and lead
to deterioration in dealers’ market-making activities. Treasury is concerned that, if the issues
raised by these types of events are unaddressed, the smooth functioning of the Treasury
market could be compromised and thus result in increased borrowing costs for the Treasury
over time.
A. Need for the Lending Facility
In order to determine if a Lending Facility is needed, we believe the following issues should
be addressed:
•
What market conditions will a Lending Facility address?
•
What is the impact of widespread fails on Treasury market liquidity and Treasury’s
cost of borrowing?
•
Will current Treasury tools address supply/demand imbalances?
•
Will private market solutions efficiently address these issues?
In our discussion below we will address each of these issues, but we would first make some
general observations about the need for a Lending Facility.
The White Paper describes a number of objectives and principles which Treasury believes will
need to be incorporated into any lending facility.
The Association supports these objectives
and principles but believes that it may be more efficient to address them in a way other than
through a Lending Facility. The question, put more broadly, is whether there has been a
market failure that can only be addressed through a government response, and whether the
liquidity of the Treasury market has been negatively impacted by chronic fails. We believe
that a governmental policy response is not warranted because the market, as noted above, has
made significant progress to address identified market anomalies with respect to price and
risk.
Indeed, we believe that there is no evidence that recent incidents of chronic fails have
negatively impacted the liquidity of the Treasury market. We believe, as well, that the
current regulatory framework for the treatment of aged fails, including increased capital
requirements and, in some cases, buy-in requirements provide sufficient additional safeguards
to manage the risks posed by chronic fails. There could, of course, be extreme market
conditions not yet identified for which a Lending Facility may be helpful to maintain orderly
market conditions where a catastrophic settlement disruption makes it impossible for the
market to address imbalances.
The Association believes continued study of those extreme
market conditions would be prudent given the importance of this market.
In the White Paper, Treasury describes an objective of the Lending Facility to act as a form of
“catastrophe” insurance in the Treasury market with minimal impact in normal circumstances.
We believe, however, that, notwithstanding attempts to minimize the impact during normal
. Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 12
circumstances, a significant structural change of this magnitude could force material changes
in the dynamics of the Treasury market. If Treasury moves forward with the Lending Facility,
the greatest challenge will be to create a structure that does not impact the current economics
and incentives that the Treasury market enjoys today.
Specifically, we believe that a lending facility consistent with the broad parameters described
in the White Paper could potentially have a significant adverse impact on secondary market
trading, particularly in specials trading in the repo market. Specials trading in the repo market
is an important contributor to the overall liquidity enjoyed by the Treasury market.
The
specialness of a security contributes to the liquidity premium enjoyed by Treasury at auction.
One study has noted that the “size of the price premium at the auction depends on the total
number of basis-point days of ‘specialness’ that the security will generate during its life. The
security’s total specialness can increase either through the overnight spread increasing or by
the security being on special for a longer time.”24
In developing a facility with an implicit floor on repo pricing, Treasury runs the risk of
limiting the potential for market participants to profit from positions in on-the-run Treasury
securities. This could discourage market participants from taking positions in those securities
by reducing the premium associated with the on-the-run securities relative to the off-the-run
securities and may limit the amount of securities that might be available in the specials
market.
This, in turn, would make shorting the on-the-run securities less attractive as a
hedging and risk management tool. During the 2003 chronic fails event it became clear that
there was an implicit floor on the specials repo rate of zero. This floor existed
notwithstanding that market participants were clearly willing to pay the equivalent of a
negative repo rate to the New York Fed’s securities lending program.
Now that the Association has developed guidance on negative rate repo trades and that the
significant market participants are, on the whole, in a position to implement that trading
practice,25 the Association believes that the pricing mechanism in the market is better able to
provide efficiently a source for securities than the Lending Facility which, at whatever price it
is implemented, will inevitably reprice the floor for specials trading.
In addition, and alternatively, any floor for the rate at which specials may trade could, in a
very low rate environment, create incentives for market participants to put on short positions
merely in order to speculate on the probability that the Lending Facility would be tapped
shortly causing a rise in the specials rate.
Market participants will see the short-term
opportunity to take advantage of a very inexpensive option and thus increase the volume of
potential fails in the system. Behavior during the 2003 incident illustrates the situation. Thus,
care should be taken to ensure that a Lending Facility does not provide incentives that would
permit market participants to game the system and thus weaken, rather than strengthen,
investor confidence in the continued safety, liquidity and efficiency of Treasury markets.
24
Mark Fisher, “Special Repo Rates: An Introduction”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Second Quarter 2002,
available at http://ww.frbatlanta.org/filelegacy.doc/fisher_2q02.pdf.
25
See the discussion below in Paragraph V.2.(a).
.
Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 13
1. What market conditions will a Lending Facility address?
Treasury identifies three types of incidents – severe operational disruption, very low shortterm interest rate environment, and market dislocation -- that may give rise to severe stress in
the Treasury market. Simply put, each of these may create supply/demand imbalances that
have not been easily remedied in the past.
However, we note that different mechanisms may
be appropriate to ease the stresses in different circumstances and that different mechanisms
have, in fact, contributed to the easing of fails stresses. While it may be advisable to increase
the supply of a security (either through a reopening or through a Lending Facility) in the case
of severe operational disruptions, enforcement through market surveillance may be the
preferred approach to combat large potentially manipulative positions. In most cases the
Association believes that supply/demand imbalances are best addressed through the pricing
mechanism in the market.
For example, although the supply-side was addressed immediately
after 9/11 by a snap and extraordinary reopening, the regulatory capital charges and the
increased ancillary costs imposed by the market, as well as the probable introduction of
additional supply because of attractive pricing contributed to the cleanup of the chronic fails
in 2003.
2. What is the impact of widespread fails on Treasury market liquidity and
Treasury’s cost of borrowing?
Before Treasury moves ahead with implementation of a Lending Facility, it should quantify,
to the extent possible, the cost to Treasury of widespread and chronic fails. While we agree
that both the post-9/11 settlement disruptions and the 2003 chronic fails event imposed costs
on market participants through capital charges and labor costs, we have seen little evidence
that there was either a cost to Treasury at auction at the time of the events or that a negative
perception of the Treasury market lingered after the event.
3.
Will Current Tools Available to Treasury Address Supply/Demand Imbalances?
Treasury has a number of tools that have been shown to be effective in addressing the market
conditions that concern Treasury. One such tool authorized by the Government Securities Act
authorizes Treasury to call for Large Position Reports (“LPR”) to monitor secondary market
activity. 26 This authority specifically gives Treasury a potent tool to combat the development
of positions in Treasury securities large enough to allow for manipulative behavior that could
threaten secondary market liquidity.
LPRs require entities with direct or indirect control of a
specified amount in a Treasury security to maintain records in order to facilitate compliance
with potential Treasury information requests. LPRs give Treasury a significant window into
those firms that are large enough to control positions that could be used in a manipulative
manner. Under Secretary Quarles noted his concern that large positions can, but do not
necessarily, indicate potential manipulative behavior and intent.27 The Association believes
that LPRs, coupled with the surveillance regime instituted after the Salomon incident in the
early 90s, are more than sufficient to uncover real manipulative behavior in a changing market
26
See 15 U.S.C.
§ 78o-5.
Under Secretary Quarles’ remarks to the Association’s Annual Meeting are available at.
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js4274.htm.
27
. Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 14
environment. In addition, LPRs allow Treasury to identify those holders of large positions
that have chosen for good economic reasons to withhold supply from the lending market.
In addition, Treasury may exercise its authority under the Treasury’s Uniform Offering
Circular for the Sale and Issue of Marketable Book-Entry Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds
(the “UOC”) to reopen a security in order to provide additional quantities of securities to the
marketplace.28 A reopening may take the form of a standard auction, a “tap” issue whereby
the securities are offered to the market on a continuous basis until the shortage is alleviated, or
through any other means that the Treasury deems appropriate. As noted above, unscheduled
reopenings are extremely uncommon and will be generally undertaken by Treasury to
alleviate liquidity concerns only after the normal market mechanisms have failed.29 As noted
above, market conditions have caused Treasury to exercise this authority only once since the
adoption of the regular and predictable auction schedule.
The Association believes that these tools have proven effective in practice and address the risk
of manipulative behavior and the risk of severe operational disruption.
Further, while the
unpredictability of a reopening may seem to threaten the regular and predictable schedule for
issuance that Treasury has fostered,30 we believe that the rarity of such reopening and the
extremity of the circumstances would not alter the ongoing benefits of regular issuance nor
change market participants’ reliance on Treasury predictability.
4. Will private market solutions more efficiently address these issues?
As described more fully above, the Treasury market through the Association has developed
and continues to develop market-based solutions to the differing risks posed by chronic fails.
We believe that each of these, while not a complete solution in its own right, will significantly
reduce the risk of a severe supply/demand imbalance occurring and will reduce both the
systemic and entity risk should such severe circumstances occur. We believe that the
appropriate economic incentives and market discipline will make necessary supply available
and allow demand to source needed securities.
B.
Criteria for a Lending Facility
We believe, on balance, that the evidence does not support Treasury moving forward with a
facility at this time. However, if Treasury determines that a Lending Facility is needed, the
facility should meet the following criteria:
â— a Lending Facility should only be used in extreme circumstances and only in
circumstances of a significant operational settlement disruption;
â— a Lending Facility should not reprice or alter the structure of the market;
28
See 31 C.F.R. Part 356.
See Under Secretary of the Treasury for Domestic Finance Peter Fisher, Remarks before the Bond
Market Association Legal and Compliance Conference (January 8, 2002).
30
See Minutes of the Meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of The Bond Market Association,
May 2, 2006, at http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/54226.htm.
29
.
Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 15
â— a Lending Facility should not diminish the benchmark liquidity premium of on-therun issues;
â— borrowings from a Lending Facility should be at a significantly higher cost than
those available in the market;
â— a Lending Facility’s terms and conditions and use by market participants should be
transparent; and
â— a Lending Facility should always be readily available, predictable and nondiscretionary.
Again, we believe a few general observations would help frame the discussion. While the
Association believes that, in the vast majority of cases, market-based incentives and practices
are best placed to prevent elevated levels of fails and to alleviate the risks posed by such fails,
a backstop Lending Facility may be worth further consideration for extreme situations such as
catastrophic settlement disruptions. This consideration should carefully assess the types of
events for which a Lending Facility is intended and receive further input from market
participants to ensure that a Lending Facility will be available and will be used only in the
most extreme circumstances in which no other less intrusive solution, either from Treasury
itself or from market participants, is evident.
Also, we believe that, in developing further the
design features of a Lending Facility, Treasury should take into consideration the work that
has been done in the market since the recent instances of high levels of fails and ensure that
the terms of the facility complement those initiatives.
1. A SLLR should only be used in extreme circumstances and only in circumstances
of a significant operational settlement disruption.
As noted throughout this letter, this facility should not be a substitute for the natural market
mechanisms and its terms should ensure that it is used only during times of extreme stress
when other mechanisms, both market-based and those that Treasury currently has, have failed
to alleviate significant and unresolved risks to the system. We believe that these
circumstances should be limited to significant disruptions to the settlement system and
infrastructure.
2.
A Lending Facility should not reprice or alter the structure of the market.
As described more fully in Section V.2.a, care should be taken to ensure that the terms of a
Lending Facility do not change the current price discovery process in the market or the current
structure of this market and the benefits that flow to Treasury and market participants from
this structure.
3. A Lending Facility should not diminish the benchmark liquidity premium of onthe-run issues.
A structural change of this significance to the market needs to be done with great care. As the
liquidity of the Treasury market is unique and the low-cost financing that that liquidity affords
.
Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 16
Treasury is the underlying reason for studying the Lending Facility, Treasury will need to be
sure that no ancillary negative effects will be evident in Treasury liquidity.
4. Borrowings from a Lending Facility should be at a significantly higher cost than
that available in the market.
The Association believes that a Lending Facility should be used only in the most extreme
circumstances and only when all avenues to private sector availability of securities have been
explored. The Lending Facility should truly be a lender of last resort and should provide
incentives, either through its pricing mechanisms or otherwise, for market participants to
source bonds in the private market before coming to the Treasury.
5.
A Lending Facility should always be readily available, predictable and nondiscretionary.
Given the impact that additional supply of a given security could have on the market and the
expectations of market participants, we believe that the availability of securities from a
Lending Facility should not be discretionary. Rather, the terms at which securities will be
available should be fully transparent and predictable for market participants. In essence, the
facility should always be open.
6.
A Lending Facility’s terms and conditions and use by market participants should
be transparent.
As noted above, in order to avoid potential dislocations in the market, the terms of use and the
use of a Lending Facility should be fully transparent.
C. Other Potential Costs of a Proposed Lending Facility: Increased Moral Hazard
In addition to the above discussion, the White Paper notes a number of benefits and costs that
should be considered in implementing a Lending Facility including an increase in moral
hazard that may exacerbate highly speculative trading. The moral hazard risk of bailing out
and encouraging speculative short positions may be significant and may weaken investor
confidence and impact normal trading conditions.
While it may be hard to quantify these
costs precisely, Treasury should not move forward until it is clear that the Lending Facility
will not create such ancillary problems.31
V. Comments on the Possible Structure and Possible Terms
While the Association is skeptical that a Lending Facility can be designed that meets all the
objectives and principles outlined in the White Paper, we also believe that continued study of
the concept may be warranted to address the limited case of catastrophic operational and
31
The White Paper refers to securities lending facilities that have been implemented in other countries with
minimal disruptive effects. We believe that the size of the Treasury market and the uses to which the Treasury
market is put make comparisons to other sovereign issuer markets inapposite.
As noted at the beginning of this
letter, the Treasury market is global and the significant advantages to holding long positions and hedging through
the use of short positions is unmatched in any other sovereign market.
. Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 17
settlement disruptions. Unforeseen events that could serve to cripple the Treasury market and
that are not easily addressed by current tools, both official tools and market trading practices,
may require a policy response that includes use of a Lending Facility. The discussion below
addresses the terms, conditions and other operational details specifically outlined in the White
Paper and offers some suggestions that we believe, should Treasury choose to move forward
with this proposal, would both address Treasury concerns and minimally affect the market in a
normal trading environment.
1.
Auction vs. Fixed-Rate (Price) Standing Facility
Should the Treasury move forward with a form of Lending Facility, the Association strongly
believes that it should be structured as a fixed-rate standing facility available to all eligible
participants with the quantity borrowed determined by the borrower (perhaps with per dealer
limits to avoid any one dealer getting an opportunity to dominate an issue). This method is
consistent with an approach that would leave to the market a determination as to the
appropriate amount that would reconcile supply/demand imbalances.
Further, we believe that
any facility that left discretion to the Treasury as to when borrowing would be available could
create significant uncertainty in the market and undermine the regular and predictable
schedule that has given Treasury securities their benchmark status. However, if Treasury
moves forward with a facility that is meant only to be available in the event of a catastrophic
settlement disruption, we believe that the criteria for the facility’s availability should be
objective and publicly available.
2. Rate, Maturity, Delivery and Reporting Options
The Association believes that the pricing structure of a Lending Facility requires careful
scrutiny as the pricing structure presents the greatest potential to change the dynamics of the
market and to alter the price-discovery mechanisms that contribute to the liquidity of the
Treasury market.
a.
Implied Rate of Zero Percent
As noted above, the Association believes that the Lending Facility, if implemented, should be
designed to address only those disruptions caused by catastrophic settlement and
infrastructure failures. It should never be available to address market trading conditions as the
market pricing mechanism is best suited to address market imbalances. Any pricing structure
should reflect the limited scope that we believe a Lending Facility should address.
The White Paper suggests that the Lending Facility make securities available at an implied
repo rate of zero percent.
The Association believes that a rate of zero percent would
institutionalize an effective floor of zero percent on the repo market and would eviscerate the
power of a market-based negative rate repo market to reconcile supply and demand through
pricing incentives. Setting the rate at an implied rate of zero, without other terms that would
increase the cost to a securities borrower (for example, a delayed settlement convention),
would destroy the incentive for market participants to source the bonds at a market price that
appropriately reflects the securities’ value. We believe, as discussed above, that an implied
.
Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 18
rate of zero raises the serious potential to undermine the specials market in a low-rate
environment and that such a pricing structure could make it less attractive to market
participants that hold a particular security to make that security available in the specials
market.
Should the Treasury move forward with a Lending Facility, a pricing methodology that allows
market participants to capture the full specials price of a security should be sought. In a low
rate environment, there may be little specials value to capture if there is an effective floor of
zero percent. There may be little incentive to participate in the specials market in such an
environment and there would be no incentive for market participants to continue to develop a
robust negative repo rate capability.
As Under Secretary Quarles noted in his remarks at the
Association’s recent Annual Meeting, there would be a rationale for reconsidering the pricing
structure of the Lending Facility “if market participants took the steps necessary to foster
active negative rate repo trading.”32 As described above, the Association and its members
have taken significant steps to provide the trading practice and operational infrastructure to
allow for robust negative rate repo trading should the pricing environment require it. After
the publication of the Association’s Negative Repo Rate Trading Practice, which was
endorsed unanimously by the Association’s Funding Division, the Association engaged its
primary dealer members to assess the operational readiness of firms to support negative rate
repo trading. A majority of this group has represented that they have the operational and
systems support in place today to allow for negative rate repo trading.
For the remaining
minority that would treat negative rate trading on an exception basis for operational purposes
today, it was clear that they were committing the resources to implement the necessary system
changes within a short time frame, in most cases within six months from the date of our
discussions. The Association is committed to working with our member firms to ensure that
systems capability can support negative rate repo trading in a seamless fashion. We believe
that this commitment to negative rate repo trading by the primary dealer firms argues strongly
against an implied rate of zero percent for the Lending Facility and we believe that the
Treasury should clearly state that it will focus on other pricing structures so that firms will
complete their operational changes to allow for negative rate trading.
b.
Alternative Pricing Structure of a Lending Facility
In developing an alternative pricing structure for a Lending Facility, Treasury needs to
consider two goals: (1) allow the market pricing forces of the Treasury market to operate
unfettered to address supply/demand imbalances as much as possible; and (2) price the
securities from the Lending Facility at a level that would only encourage market participants
to borrow from the Treasury when there a clear threat to the market’s efficiency.
In order to achieve these goals, a Lending Facility should only make securities available at a
fee materially higher than the price quoted and available in the market. We believe that such a
pricing mechanism would only encourage market participants to borrow from the Lending
Facility if securities are, in fact, not clearing due to settlement disruptions. In these market
conditions market participants would recognize that Treasury is the only source for securities.
32
See http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js4274.htm.
.
Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 19
c. Maturity and Settlement Timings
The Association further believes that, whatever fee rate is chosen, both the maturity and
settlement timings should be set in a way so that market participants will borrow from the
Lending Facility only when conditions are extreme and it is expected that they would remain
extreme for a significant period of time. For example, delayed settlement of the borrowing -T+5 was suggested in the White Paper – is appropriate and would ensure that a market
participant borrowing from the Treasury believes that the fails event is truly chronic and that
the ancillary costs of continuing to fail (labor costs, capital costs, and relationship costs) are
such that the market participant is willing to wait to secure the securities and that the
securities will not become available in the market.
However, there may be circumstances
where it may be necessary, because of catastrophic settlement disruptions, to make securities
available on an immediate basis. The criteria for making this determination should be
objective and publicly available.
Furthermore, the logic of severe and extended market disruption would support a structure
that requires borrowing for a term rather than for overnight and the Association believes that
in order to ensure that the facility is used very rarely, both delayed settlement and term
transactions with a term not under a week be utilized.
d. Reporting
With respect to reporting, the Association believes that if the structure of the facility,
particularly the economic, settlement and term parameters, is designed appropriately for use
only during extreme circumstances, reporting daily cash, repo, and futures positions, and fails
to deliver and receive in the security borrowed over the period bracketing the time of
borrowing would be unduly burdensome on dealers that make use of the facility.
As Treasury
has noted throughout the White Paper, its intent is that the Lending Facility be used only
during extreme market conditions. We believe that during such periods of extreme market
stress personnel within firms will be focused on sourcing bonds, maintaining appropriate
levels of capital and working with customers. Additional reporting requirements, while a
marginal disincentive to using the facility, would not significantly add to the Treasury’s
ability to police the Lending Facility’s use.
Treasury continues to have its market surveillance
tools, the LPRs and the Interagency Working Group, for example, to guard against possible
inappropriate uses of the facility.
3. Collateral
The White Paper suggests that the Lending Facility would lend securities on a bond-for-bond
basis. The Association believes that this approach serves best the needs of both the Treasury
and the market.
As noted in the White Paper, a bond-for-bond transaction would have no
effect on the Treasury’s cash position and thus would have minimal impact on Treasury’s
cash management and the Federal Reserve’s open market operations. However, should the
Treasury adopt a bond-for-bonds collateral approach we would urge that, particularly if the
borrowings are for periods beyond one day, a mechanism be put in place that would permit
collateral substitution as dealers would not want to tie particular bonds for an extended period.
. Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 20
4. Available Securities
Assuming that Treasury designs a pricing mechanism that would attract borrowing from the
Lending Facility only in extreme market conditions, we believe that any Lending Facility
should not limit availability to the on-the-run sector but should be available to lend additional
supply for any outstanding CUSIP. The causes and effects of future extreme conditions are
impossible to predict and maximum flexibility would be consistent with the underlying
rationale of the Lending Facility to address any severe disruptions in the supply/demand
balance in the Treasury market.
5.
Borrowing Mechanics and Public Transparency
As borrowings from the Lending Facility would immediately affect the available supply of
securities, we believe that full transparency consistent with the information that the FRBNY
makes available with respect to its securities borrowing program will be needed. Borrowing
from the Treasury would be a crucial piece of market information that would need to be
incorporated into prices immediately in order to address the supply/demand imbalance that a
Lending Facility would be expected to remedy, and transparency would contribute to the
achievement of the Lending Facility’s objectives quickly. In addition, transparency would
prevent, as the White Paper noted, the borrowing firm from gaining an informational
advantage over other market participants.
6.
Eligible Borrowers
We agree that any Lending Facility should be limited to primary dealers. The primary dealers
are the significant market makers in Treasury securities and have the necessary experience in
dealing with the FRBNY on these types of operations. Full transparency of the rate at which
securities will be available will allow other market participants to instruct a dealer to borrow
on its behalf.
7.
Collateral Margin and Valuation
The Association agrees that appropriate margin, at levels consistent with market norms,
should be maintained at the Treasury, as this reflects the market convention for these types of
transactions.
8. Borrowing Limitations
The Association believes that specific borrowing limitations should not be necessary if the
facility is designed in a way that encourages its use only in extreme market conditions. By its
terms, the Lending Facility should be uneconomic for purposes other than remedying a large
scale disruption.
Treasury could continue to use its other market surveillance tools to ensure
that any large volume borrowings are for a purpose reflecting the goals of the Lending
Facility.
. Mr. Jeff Huther
August 9, 2006
Page 21
9. Rollovers/Loan Extensions
Again, in keeping with the Association position that any Lending Facility should mirror, to
the extent consistent with its goals, standard market practices for repos and securities
borrowings, we believe that fails back to the Treasury should not be treated punitively.
Creating unequal incentives for failing to different classes of counterparties could exacerbate a
fails situation.
Thank you for the opportunity to respond to the Treasury’s proposals as outlined in the White
Paper. The Association and its membership looks forward to working with Treasury on the
issues raised in the White Paper.
Please feel free to contact Robert Toomey (646.637.9224 or
rtoomey@bondmarkets.com) at the Association should you have any questions or comments
regarding our response.
Sincerely,
/s/ Stephen G. Malekian
/s/ John A. Roberts
Stephen G.
Malekian, Managing Director
Citigroup
Chairman
Funding Division Executive Committee
John A. Roberts, Managing Director
Barclays Capital Inc.
Chairman
Government Division Executive
Committee
/s/ Robert B. Toomey
Robert B.
Toomey, Vice President and Assistant General Counsel
The Bond Market Association
Principal Staff Advisor to the Funding and Government Divisions
cc:
Treasury Department:
Randall Quarles, Under Secretary for Domestic Finance
Emil Henry, Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions
Bureau of Public Debt:
Lori Santamorena, Executive Director
Michael Sunner, Deputy Assistant Counsel
Federal Reserve Bank of New York:
Dino Kos, Executive Vice President
Debbie Perelmuter, Senior Vice President
Joyce Hansen, Deputy General Counsel and Senior Vice President
Michael Nelson, Vice President
The Bond Market Association
Funding Division Executive Committee
Government Division Executive Committee
Primary Dealers Committee
Micah Green, President
Randy Snook, Executive Vice President
John Vogt, Executive Vice President
. August 11, 2006
BY FEDERAL EXPRESS AND E-MAIL
Mr. Jeff Huther, Director
Office of Debt Management
Room 2412
Department of the Treasury
1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, D.C. 20220
Re:
Comments on Securities Lending Facility – 71 Fed. Reg.
26174 (May 3, 2006)
Dear Mr. Huther:
The Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. (“CBOT®” or “Exchange”) appreciates
the opportunity to comment on the Department of the Treasury’s (“Treasury”) request for
comment regarding whether it should establish a securities lender of last resort facility
(“SLLR”).
The CBOT is one of the world’s leading and most liquid derivatives exchanges based on
contract volume.
Our flagship U.S. Treasury products include futures and options on 30Year U.S Treasury Bonds, and futures and options on Ten-Year, Five-Year, and TwoYear U.S. Treasury Notes.
The Exchange’s U.S. Treasury futures and options play an
important role in the interest rate risk management strategies of a number of foreign and
domestic market participants, including governmental entities, banks, insurance
companies, pension funds, and mutual fund managers, among others. Approximately
535 million futures and options contracts on U.S.
Treasury securities were traded on the
CBOT in 2005, representing a notional value of approximately $55.6 trillion.
The Exchange shares the Treasury’s interest in the maintenance of a safe, liquid and
efficient U.S. Treasury securities market. At the same time, the CBOT desires to
continue to be able to provide fair, efficient and orderly U.S.
Treasury futures and options
markets. The Exchange commends the Treasury’s continued proactive approach to
promoting market efficiency in the Treasury securities market and the broader financial
markets through its consideration of a proposed SLLR.
The liquidity of the cash Treasury market and the ease of arbitrage between the cash and
futures markets can either facilitate or impair the process of convergence of cash and
futures prices. It is precisely this convergence of the two prices that makes a futures
contract relevant and useful for market participants.
The increased incidence of fails in
recent years in the cash Treasury market, and especially in the Treasury repurchase
market, has eroded trade certainty in the cash Treasury market in ways that impair the
. Mr. Jeff Huther
August 11, 2006
Page 2 of 2
ability of market participants to perform cash-futures arbitrage. Therefore, we believe
that the Treasury’s implementation of an SLLR would have a positive impact on the
Treasury securities and futures markets by making available an additional, temporary
supply of Treasury securities in those instances when market shortages might threaten to
impair the functioning of these markets.
The CBOT stands ready, in its role as the leading U.S. Treasury futures and options
marketplace, to assist the Treasury with respect to the appropriate structure, including
terms and conditions and other operational details, at such time as the Treasury
determines to move forward in implementing an SLLR.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact Anne Polaski, Assistant General
Counsel, at (312) 435-3757 or apolaski@cbot.com.
Sincerely,
Bernard W.
Dan
. . . . . .