ESG Momentum Stocks:
Sustainable Investing’s Diamonds in the Rough
Rolf Kelly, cfa | Portfolio Manager
Charles Roth | Global Markets Editor
September 2016
One of the challenges that confronts retirees and their advisors is
how to prevent having to sell their hard-earned retirement assets at
the wrong time. We have all heard the age-old investment adage
“Buy Low and Sell High,” which tells us to buy assets when they are
out of favor but to time the disposition of the assets when the markets are in your favor.
Executive Summary
• A company’s efforts to improve its sustainability are often a better gauge of future success
than its current ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) score.
• Numeric ESG scoring doesn’t factor in momentum, judgment and perspective, giving active
managers a clear edge in the search for long-term outperformance.
• Independent judgment in assessing relative ESG values in companies across regions,industries and market capitalization is crucial for portfolio diversification and risk-adjusted returns.
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. 2 | ESG Momentum Stocks: Sustainable Investing’s Diamonds in the Rough
The old investment maxim “buy low and
sell high” has an additional corollary in the
fast-growing world of sustainable investing. Companies that strive to improve their
environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) standards, it turns out, may
generate market-beating returns for their
shareholders. The reasons are simple: first,
firms that integrate ESG factors tend to
have better risk and return characteristics.
Second, for investors who seek to benefit
from the improvement in firms’ ESG standards, we believe the best time to invest is
before the improvement is widely recognized—and rewarded—by the market.
Contrary to lingering investor concerns
that including ESG attributes in the
investment research process would undercut risk-adjusted returns, index provider
MSCI is providing growing evidence
that ESG investing can produce superior
returns. At the end of June, the five-year
annualized total net return of the MSCI
EAFE ESG Index stood at 3.03%, nearly
doubling the MSCI EAFE Index’s 1.68%
annualized return.
Likewise, the MSCI
ACWI ESG Index’s annualized net
return over the same period amounted to
6.13%, handily outperforming its MSCI
ACWI Index cousin’s 5.38% gain. Even
the MSCI EM ESG Index showed strik-
“An improvement in ESG scores signals that a
company is better equipped to avoid ESG-related
risks; this reduction in potential future liabilities is
quickly discounted by market participants and built
into the share price.”
ing outperformance, with a five-year
annualized net return of 0.75%, besting
the MSCI EM Index’s negative 3.78%
yearly return by just more than four points.
Momentum vs. Tilt
In a study examining stock returns in
strategies that focus on ESG “momentum” and “tilt” criteria, MSCI found
that both led to outperformance against
global benchmarks over seven-year and
eight-year periods, respectively.1 The tilt
strategy favored stocks with higher ESG
ratings; the momentum strategy focused
on stocks that had recently improved their
ESG scores.
With respect to the latter,
“an improvement in ESG scores signals
that a company is better equipped to
avoid ESG-related risks; this reduction in
potential future liabilities is quickly discounted by market participants and built
into the share price,” MSCI reported.
Importantly, the momentum strategy
wasn’t focused on lifting “the ESG profile
of the resulting portfolio because stocks
with the largest increase in ESG scores
are not necessarily the best-rated stocks at
the time.”
During the seven-year sample period,
the momentum strategy produced yearly
benchmark-beating returns of 223 basis
points, of which stock-specific return
amounted to 132 basis points (Figure 2).
As MSCI pointed out, “overall, most of
the portfolio’s risk and return came from
picking the right stocks, but factor tilts
also played a role.” Moreover, both the
momentum and tilt strategies “experienced very low tracking error with respect
to a global benchmark,” MSCI noted.
1 Can ESG Add Alpha? MSCI, June 2015
Figure 1 | Green is the New Black
Annualized 5-Year Total Returns (as of 6/30/16)
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
MSCI EAFE ESG
Source: Morningstar
MSCI EAFE
MSCI ACWI ESG
MSCI ACWI
MSCI World ESG
MSCI World
MSCI EM ESG
MSCI EM
. ESG Momentum Stocks: Sustainable Investing’s Diamonds in the Rough | 3
Figure 2 | Active Return, Risk in ESG Momentum Strategy
Source of Return
Active Return (%)
Active Risk Contribution (%)
0.72
0.08
Style
Industry
0.44
0.35
Country
-0.28
0.14
Currency
0.03
-0.05
Stock Specific
1.32
2.07
Total Active
2.23
2.59
Decomposition of the active return and risk of the ESG Momentum portfolio, annualized figures, February
2007 – March 2015.
Source: MSCI
Limitations in ESG Scoring
The MSCI ESG study largely parallels
our own research and decade-long experience managing socially responsible
separate accounts, and, since September
2015, running our own Thornburg Better
World International Fund and, for institutional investors, International Equity ESG
Strategy. However, we would highlight
important caveats. While investment and
market research firms provide some helpful
data on a company’s ESG integration, we
believe judgment and perspective are crucial for assessing any company’s day-to-day
application of expanding ESG standards,
particularly in the case of ESG momentum
investing. ESG momentum prospects are,
almost by definition, initially tagged with
low ESG scores by research firms, which
don’t have much choice.
As MSCI indicated, companies are scored on their current ESG levels, not the potential outcome
of their nascent efforts to improve their
ESG characteristics. As a result, ESG
mutual funds that employ a momentum
strategy typically receive lower “sustainability scores” by the research firms, even
as portfolio stocks progress toward higher
ESG marks and, potentially, returns.
Due to a lack of resources, the research
firms can also generate an unintentional
bias against mid- and small-capitalization
stocks simply by not rating them, even
if they have solid ESG attributes. That
unrated status counts against them and,
by extension, drags down the ESG profile
As active managers, we find that we have
to make judgment calls that are often at
odds with the ESG scoring of investment
research firms, given the limitations of
their methodology or resources for scoring
a wide array of companies globally, especially international small- and mid-capitalization stocks.
We also believe that
rating companies versus industry peers
and assigning a “controversy” score often
doesn’t accurately capture the social benefits of some companies, such as Korea
Zinc, or the social detriment of others, say
tobacco and gaming companies.
score of multi-capitalization ESG mutual
funds. Likewise, companies may be rated
against industry peers without a social
overlay, meaning those in socially dubious
sectors (say, firearms or tobacco) might
receive a higher relative scoring. Research
firms generally try to adjust for this by
assigning a “controversy” score.
But even
then, an ESG rating may not reflect a
company’s true ESG profile. For example, Korea Zinc might get a “controversy”
knock against it for its mining sector classification, even though it sources much
of its zinc, which is indispensable for
human, animal and plant life and a necessary ingredient in a huge spectrum of
consumer goods and appliances, through
environmentally friendly recycling.
Moreover, quite apart from the obvious shortcomings of scoring on ESG
momentum strategies, portfolio diversification and reduced correlation between
portfolio holdings can only be achieved
by accounting for relative differences
in context. Should culturally distinct
Northeast Asian firms be held to the same
disclosure standards as North American
companies? Should Latin American
firms be held to the same gender diversity standards as Scandinavian peers?
Relative differences in context matter
when assessing the strength of the trend
toward ESG integration in momentum
names, or the extent of ESG values integration in companies that already exhibit
strong ESG factors.
On the flip side, ESG funds angling for
high sustainability ratings by research
firms may end up with insufficiently
diversified portfolios, leading to higher
correlations between portfolio holdings,
with greater risk and return volatility.
Correlations within a portfolio can
be reduced without sacrificing adherence to ESG principles.
For example,
Thornburg’s ESG strategy shuns hydrocarbon and certain types of metals producers, but we can compensate for those
exposures by investing in firms with
strong ESG standards and high return on
capital in countries whose economies and
currencies benefit from cyclical uptrends
in the commodity complex. That partly
explains our recent investments in South
African hospital group Life Healthcare,
Norwegian seafood producer Marine
Harvest, and Chilean water utility Aguas
Andinas. All three have improving or
strong ESG attributes, strong financial
characteristics and offer indirect exposure to commodities and energy via the
ESG Investing:
More Than a Score
It’s difficult to over-emphasize the necessity of sound judgment and perspective in constructing an ESG portfolio.
At Thornburg, we employ fundamental financial analysis coupled with ESG
research, which we derive partly from
third-party research firms but mostly
from direct engagement with companies.
.
4 | ESG Momentum Stocks: Sustainable Investing’s Diamonds in the Rough
rand, the krone, and the peso, helping
offset the lack of direct exposure to oil
and materials.
Alongside an attractive share price with a
good margin of safety, these are the sorts
of synergistic financial and ESG characteristics that we like in our portfolio
holdings. Such attributes also offer real
downside protection, which can deliver
higher portfolio returns over time by
establishing a higher base off which to
rebound following bouts of market volatility. And financially strong companies that
don’t yet enjoy high ESG scores but that
demonstrate a concerted effort to achieve
them can also in time produce increasingly attractive, sustainable returns. n
assumed that any of the referenced securities were or will
be profitable or that the investment decisions we make in
the future will be profitable.
relative to their sector peers.
MSCI ACWI ESG consists
of large and mid cap companies across 23 developed
markets and 23 emerging markets countries.
Active Return – The differential between the portfolio
return and that of the benchmark.
The MSCI World Index is an unmanaged market-weighted index that consists of securities traded in 23 of the
world’s most developed countries. Securities are listed on
exchanges in the U.S., Europe, Canada, Australia, New
Zealand, and the Far East. The index is calculated with net
dividends reinvested in U.S.
dollars.
Important Information
Thornburg Better World International Fund
Top 10 Holdings (as of 5/31/16)
Holding
ING Groep N.V.
Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc.
Europris ASA
Telenet Group Holding NV
Empiric Student Property plc
AIA Group Ltd.
Novartis AG
Brenntag AG
Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp.
Nokia Oyj
Percentage
3.0%
3.0%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
The views expressed by the portfolio managers reflect their
professional opinions and are subject to change. Under no
circumstances does the information contained within
represent a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Securities mentioned herein are for illustrative purposes
only and are presented to describe the due diligence process for purchasing or selling an individual stock. Under
no circumstances does the information contained within
represent a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
This information is current as of the date indicated and
represents current holdings of Thornburg; however, there
is no assurance that any security referenced will remain
in any portfolio and Thornburg undertakes no obligation to
update the information or otherwise advise the reader of
changes in its ownership of the holdings.
It should not be
Active Risk Contribution – The total percentage contribution to active risk (tracking error).
The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index is an
unmanaged index. It is a generally accepted benchmark
for major overseas markets. Index weightings represent
the relative capitalizations of the major overseas developed
markets on a U.S.
dollar adjusted basis. The index is
calculated with net dividends reinvested in U.S. dollars.
The MSCI EAFE ESG Index is a capitalization weighted index
that provides exposure to companies with high Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) performance relative to
their sector peers.
MSCI EAFE ESG consists of large and
mid cap companies across developed markets countries
around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada.
The MSCI All Country (AC) World ex-US Index is a market
capitalization weighted index representative of the market
structure of 45 developed and emerging market countries
in North and South America, Europe, Africa, and the
Pacific Rim, excluding securities of United States’ issuers.
The index is calculated with gross dividends reinvested in
U.S. dollars.
The MSCI ACWI ESG Index is a capitalization weighted
index that provides exposure to companies with high
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) performance
The MSCI World ESG Index is a capitalization weighted
index that provides exposure to companies with high Environmental, Social and Governance performance relative to
their sector peers.
The parent index is MSCI World Index,
which consists of large and mid-cap companies in 23
developed markets countries.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted
market capitalization index that is designed to measure
equity market performance of emerging markets. The
MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following
23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China,
Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India,
Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines,
Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand,
Turkey and United Arab Emirates.
The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) ESG Index is a
capitalization weighted index that provides exposure to
companies with high Environmental, Social and Governance performance relative to their sector peers. MSCI EM
ESG consists of large and mid cap companies across 23
emerging markets countries.
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9/13/16
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