Total Return Bond Management:
Full Market Cycle Demystified
An over-emphasis on interest rates risks missing the potential spread cycle
alpha opportunities that result in more consistent outperformance across
investment grade strategies.
. Total Return Bond Management:
Full Market Cycle Demystified
CONTENTS
2 Bond Management 101
An over-emphasis on interest rates risks missing the potential
spread cycle alpha opportunities that result in more consistent
outperformance across investment grade strategies.
3 Managing Market Change
4 Defining a Cycle with
Controllable Risk
5 Positioning for Evolving
Spread Environments
6 Implications for Current
Holdings
7 Conclusion
BOND MANAGEMENT 101
Total return bond management is ultimately about generating excess yield
by opportunistically overweighting spread sectors when risk premiums are
most attractive. Success over a full market cycle requires the discipline to
harvest gains, reduce spread risk and not reach for yield when risk premiums
are compressed. Given the mean-reverting nature of the spread sectors,
we believe this discipline best protects our clients’ capital amidst the typical
late cycle “reach for yield” momentum behavior that chases less and less
return per unit of risk. Such discipline is critical in the investment grade
universe that naturally offers a negative risk skew.
Remember, investment
grade bonds typically offer an income stream with some potential upside if
the spread offered at purchase is attractive (i.e., the spread can tighten and
provide modest capital appreciation). This upside potential is asymmetric
with the potential downside should a manager’s bond-picking skills prove
inadequate. In short, winning can be as much about not losing when
investing in investment grade bonds at or toward the end of the cycle.
Current market deliberations have evolved into a narrow, singular emphasis
on the direction of rates, with a particular obsession only on when and
how high interest rates will rise.
While the direction of rates will always drive
nominal returns, the timing and certainty of such a shift is hardly the easy call
it is made out to be. In fact, the certainty of rising rates and the subsequent
“bloodbath” in bond markets have been a consensus expectation for many,
many years.
“We believe rising interest rates in the foreseeable future are far from certain,
a contrarian view we have steadfastly held for several years,” says James F.
Keegan, Chief Investment Officer and Chairman of Seix Investment Advisors.
“From our perspective, delivering stronger long-term risk-adjusted returns in
this core bond segment is more about understanding how the spread cycle
changes risk/reward dynamics over time in the context of the overall interest
rate cycle.” Identifying how evolving risk premiums shape opportunity can
add considerable relative return potential in almost all types of interest rate
markets.
TOTAL RETURN BOND MANAGEMENT
2
. MANAGING MARKET CHANGE
“Our goal as a total return manager is to deliver consistent outperformance over full
market cycles,” says Perry Troisi, Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager at Seix.
“At the core of our investment process is a rigorous bottom-up research methodology,
with portfolios built security-by-security based on disciplined underwriting criteria and a
very seasoned team of sector specialists and career analysts. Each investment decision
is driven by a detailed individual security evaluation in three critical areas of analysis:
fundamentals and technicals in the context of relative valuations.” The nature of bond
investing, however, also requires an awareness of how the macro climate might affect
portfolio risk/reward attributes.
Key to this credit market analysis is an understanding of how to deploy risk capital
effectively throughout the bond market cycle. Many investment grade bond managers
tend to outperform in one type of environment, often at the risk of underperforming when
conditions change. Taking a more active approach to calibrating risk exposures as yield
spread dynamics continuously adjust can help pursue greater performance consistency
through changing markets, rather than shining under one particular set of conditions.
Over
the long term, we expect these steadier results to secure stronger risk-adjusted returns,
even though performance might appear more staid as the cycle extends and ages.
“Long-term outperformance is about consistently employing risk effectively across cycle
changes, not in just one particular market climate,” states Keegan.
“We believe a longer-term, full cycle view is a more prudent approach, with
investors better served by evaluating how a strategy performs trough-totrough or peak-to-peak throughout a bond market spread cycle to gain more
meaningful insights into manager performance and consistency.”
Jim Keegan - Chief Investment Officer and Chairman, Seix Investment Advisors
Think about the metrics investors typically use to rank bond manager performance.
Perhaps they compare yields or one-, three- and five-year total returns. The trouble,
of course, is that these performance snapshots are rarely aligned with actual changing
market cycles. As such, they can be incomplete measures that are arbitrary at best, and
potentially misleading at worst.
Unfortunately, fund flows almost invariably seem to follow
these types of return fluctuations at precisely the wrong time, potentially introducing
unnecessary volatility into an investor’s portfolio.
FULL MARKET CYCLE DEMYSTIFIED
3
. DEFINING A CYCLE WITH CONTROLLABLE RISKS
Seix believes that yield spreads, rather than interest rates, reflect the best measure of a bond
market cycle for several reasons:
Long-term interest rate trends are usually more secular than cyclical in nature. In
fact, the current declining environment began in 1982 – more than 30 years ago. Within
this secular interest rate cycle there have been many spread cycles.
Short- and intermediate-term interest rate movements are typically more about
shifting investor psychology. Hence, they offer more limited—and often more risky—
potential to capitalize on opportunistic duration plays or mispricings along the yield curve
in a consistently meaningful manner.
Yield has historically been the largest determinant of the segment’s return.
Extreme
price movements can certainly have a significant performance impact, but capturing the
most attractive yields while avoiding undue risk has historically generated the strongest
risk-adjusted returns over time.
Yield spread movements offer more actionable portfolio strategies. Managers may
be able to periodically capitalize on short-term interest rate changes, but few investors
are desirous of outsized market-timing interest rate bets. In contrast, yield spread cycle
changes can provide attractive opportunities to manage risk exposure within the asset
class, as well as delineate which sectors appear to offer the most compelling risk/return
profile at any given part of the spread cycle.
Several past yield spread cycles are shown in Exhibit 1 below, which details historical optionadjusted spreads for investment grade corporate bonds, one of the primary spread sectors in
the investment grade market.
The wider the spread, the greater the potential
reward investors are provided for taking on the sector risk. All other things being equal,
viewing market opportunity through this lens can provide a clearer picture of when it appears
appropriate to take on additional relative sector or security risk within the
underlying investment grade bond universe.
“Spread cycles can help identify when risk premiums make sense – and when
they don’t.”
Perry Troisi - Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager, Seix Investment Advisors
TOTAL RETURN BOND MANAGEMENT
4
. Of course, the investment grade bond segment offers a diverse mix of investment potential
that extends well beyond U.S. Treasuries and corporate credits. Government-related
securities, asset-backed securities and mortgage-backed securities (residential and
commercial) all have spread cycles to consider. Capturing the optimal risk/reward balance in
any particular market climate requires viewing the individual securities within each of these
sectors in the overall context of how they compare to one another.
Exhibit 1: Investment Grade Corporate Bond Option-Adjusted Spreads
(6/30/89 – 6/30/16)
800
LAST
156 bps
Basis Points
600
MIN
51 bps
MAX
607 bps
6/30/16
700
7/31/97
MEAN
134 bps
STDEV
81 bps
11/28/08
11/28/08
Wide
10/31/02
Wide
500
400
06/30/14
Tight
09/30/06
Tight
300
200
100
I Corporate Bond Option-Adjusted Spreads
June 16
June 15
June 14
June 13
June 12
June 11
June 10
June 09
June 08
June 07
June 06
June 05
June 04
June 03
June 02
June 01
June 00
June 99
June 98
June 97
June 96
June 95
June 94
June 93
June 92
June 91
June 90
June 89
0
Source: Barclays
Option-adjusted spreads measure yields relative to comparable duration U.S.
Treasury yields, adjusted to take into account embedded options, offering a more
accurate risk/reward measure than simply comparing bond yields to maturity.
POSITIONING FOR EVOLVING SPREAD ENVIRONMENTS
Exhibit 2 on page illustrates how this spread cycle analysis can drive portfolio positioning.
The three charts in Exhibit 2 show sector holdings for the Seix Core Plus Strategy at various
points in the past spread cycle.
“In 2006, when spreads were at a cyclical trough, the
strategy held a smaller corporate credit allocation with greater U.S. Treasury exposure given
that the market was not, in our view, compensating investors adequately for the added risk
exposure,” explained Troisi. Two years later, spreads had widened to a dramatic cyclical
peak, offering extremely attractive opportunities across higher-yielding sectors that resulted
in almost the exact opposite positioning: minimal U.S.
Treasury exposure and higher
allocations to the primary spread sectors.
FULL MARKET CYCLE DEMYSTIFIED
5
. Once yield spreads began to tighten as the spread cycle evolved and higher-yielding bonds
began to experience greater momentum, relative valuation opportunities across sectors
naturally shifted. Spreads again reached a cyclical bottom in mid-2014, and U.S. Treasury
holdings were expanded to help mitigate overall risk exposure across the portfolio, this time at
the expense of mortgage-backed securities, which appeared less attractive from a risk/reward
perspective. “It is interesting to note that although our research process focuses on individual
security analysis, we find that our portfolio over/underweight allocations are typically validated
by these macro shifts in relative valuations,” noted Keegan.
Exhibit 2: Portfolio Sector Allocations (% of duration contribution)
September 30, 2006
U.S.
Treasury
23.02%
December 31, 2008
Mortgage
Backed
40.56%
ABS
0.24%
Mortgage Backed
25.98%
Gov’t Related
9.69%
Corporate
22.67%
U.S.
Treasury
37.96%
U.S.
Treasury
11.14%
CMBS
8.00%
Gov’t Related
0.05%
Mortgage
Backed
23.97%
ABS
2.04%
Municipals
4.49%
ABS
2.57%
CMBS
3.82%
June 30, 2014
Corporate
47.77%
CMBS
4.46%
Gov’t
Related
2.55%
Corporate
29.02%
Source: RidgeWorth Seix Total Return Bond Fund
IMPLICATIONS FOR CURRENT HOLDINGS
“At this point in the cycle, we believe a more cautious allocation of risk appears warranted,”
Troisi stated.
The current investment grade corporate option-adjusted spread is 156 basis
points,1 slightly above the long-term historical mean of 134 basis points. “Whereas, we
are still identifying select opportunities in higher-yielding sectors, in this type of investment
environment we also want to ensure ample portfolio liquidity should a market dislocation
present broader buying opportunities,” continued Troisi.
Many investors tend to reflexively reach for yield when spreads are near cyclical troughs,
even though that has frequently proven to be the most inopportune time to take on additional
risk exposure. Strategies taking the most risk today generally may be posting the most
favorable numbers, but return dispersions are low given that lower risk premiums offer less
compensation for such risk.
This small advantage evaporates quickly when the market shifts,
as it has in past cycles.
1
As of 06/30/16.
TOTAL RETURN BOND MANAGEMENT
6
. There are certainly numerous headwinds that could easily curtail the performance of riskier
bond holdings. Seix’s Investment Grade team continues to anticipate that interest rates are
likely to stay lower for longer than general market expectations. The main drivers behind this
belief are the persistently slow growth environment and disappointing economic performance
that continue to hang over markets after seven-plus years and trillions of dollars of monetary
stimulus intended to strengthen this anemic economic recovery. The broader implications
of these dynamics across investment grade sectors are how they have translated into
constrained top-line growth in this low nominal gross domestic product (GDP) environment,
which has led to more aggressive financial engineering to create earnings-per-share (EPS)
growth at the expense of capital investment.
“Consequently, we want to be on the right side
of the risk equation when markets turn down,’ explained Keegan.
“We want to be providers of liquidity when the market is illiquid to help ensure our
valuation entry points offer the greatest risk/reward potential.”
Jim Keegan - Chief Investment Officer and Chairman, Seix Investment Advisors
CONCLUSION
Investors’ obsession with interest rates may cause them to miss the more practical
opportunity to add consistent performance alpha to their investment grade bond allocations.
Seix believes that spread cycles have offered deeper, more actionable alpha opportunities
through appropriate risk positioning across changing market environments. Analyzing metrics
such as option-adjusted spreads can serve as the compass in the context of fundamental and
technical analysis against which to deploy risk capital or move into capital preservation mode
across the investment grade universe, taking advantage of the most attractive relative risk/
reward opportunities at any given point in the cycle. With this in mind, investors can focus on
a real target that can help add meaningful alpha to their long-term return potential.
FULL MARKET CYCLE DEMYSTIFIED
7
.
One Maynard Drive, Suite 3200
Park Ridge, New Jersey 07656
seixadvisors.com
201.391.0300
Alpha is a measure of performance on a risk-adjusted basis.
Credit Ratings noted herein are calculated based on S&P, Moody’s and Fitch ratings.
Generally, ratings range from AAA, the highest quality rating, to D, the lowest, with BBB
and above being called investment grade securities. BB and below are considered
below investment grade securities. If the ratings from all three agencies are available,
securities will be assigned the median rating based on the numerical equivalents. If the
ratings are available from only two of the agencies, the more conservative of the ratings
will be assigned to the security.
If the rating is available from only one agency, then that
rating will be used. Ratings do not apply to a fund or to a fund’s shares. Ratings are
subject to change.
Spread is the difference between the bid and the ask price of a security or asset.
Bonds offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will fluctuate
providing the potential for principal gain or loss.
Intermediate-term, higher-quality bonds
generally offer less risk than longer term bonds and a lower rate of return. Generally, a
portfolio’s fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise and vice
versa. Although a portfolio’s yield may be higher than that of fixed income portfolios that
purchase higher rated securities, the potentially higher yield is a function of the greater
risk of that fund’s underlying securities.
Mortgage-backed investments involve risk of loss
due to prepayments and, like any bond, due to default. Because of the sensitivity of
mortgage-related securities to changes in interest rates, a portfolio’s performance may
be more volatile than if it did not hold these securities. Although a portfolio’s yield may
be higher than that of fixed income portfolios that purchase higher-rated securities, the
potentially higher yield is a function of the greater risk of that fund’s underlying securities.
Yield Curve shows the relationship between yields and maturity dates for a set of similar
bonds, usually Treasuries, at any given point in time.
Before investing, investors should carefully read the prospectus or
summary prospectus and consider the fund’s investment objectives,
risks, charges and expenses.
Please call 888.784.3863 or visit
ridgeworth.com to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus,
which contains this and other information about the funds.
The assertions contained herein are based on RidgeWorth’s opinion. This information is
general and educational in nature and is not intended to be authoritative. All information
contained herein is believed to be correct, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
This
information is based on information available at the time, and is subject to change. It is
not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment advice. Investors are
advised to consult with their investment professional about their specific financial needs
and goals before making any investment decisions.
©2016 RidgeWorth Investments.
All rights reserved. RidgeWorth Investments is the trade
name for RidgeWorth Capital Management LLC, an investment adviser registered with
the SEC and the adviser to the RidgeWorth Funds. RidgeWorth Funds are distributed
by RidgeWorth Distributors LLC, which is not affiliated with the adviser.
Seix Investment
Advisors LLC is a registered investment adviser with the SEC and a member of the
RidgeWorth Capital Management LLC network of investment firms. All third party marks
are the property of their respective owners.
Standard Deviation is a statistical measure of dispersion about an average, which depicts
how widely returns varied over a certain period of time.
All investments involve risk. There is no guarantee a specific investment strategy will be
successful.
SXWP-BCYCLE-0616
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