A Review by Seix Investment Advisors LLC
THIRD QUARTER 2016
RIDGEWORTH INSIGHTS:
TAX-EXEMPT FIXED INCOME
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Ron Schwartz, CFA
Senior Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
•
Municipals benefited from the flight to safety that
occurred in the immediate aftermath of the late
second quarter Brexit vote. But speculation about
a rate hike by the Federal Reserve Board (Fed),
combined with a spike in issuance, later put upward
pressure on yields.
•
Inflows remained strong for much of the quarter, but
new regulations set to take effect in October resulted
in significant outflows from municipal money market
funds.
•
With budget reserves declining, pension costs rising,
and the economy slowing, municipal fundamentals
continued to deteriorate.
Managing Director,
Seix Investment Advisors
Dusty Self
Senior Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Managing Director,
Seix Investment Advisors
Christopher D. Carter, CFA
Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Director,
Seix Investment Advisors
RIDGEWORTH FUNDS
RidgeWorth Seix Investment Grade
Tax-Exempt Bond
RidgeWorth Seix High Grade Municipal Bond
RidgeWorth Seix Short-Term Municipal Bond
RidgeWorth Seix Georgia Tax-Exempt Bond
RidgeWorth Seix North Carolina Tax-Exempt
Bond
RidgeWorth Seix Virginia Intermediate
Municipal Bond
Returns in the municipal bond market were driven largely
by technical factors, with two consecutive months of
record supply challenging unrelenting demand. The
Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index returned
-0.30% in the third quarter.
Municipal to Treasury
yield ratios across the curve rose during the last half
of September potentially providing investors with an
attractive opportunity.
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THIRD QUARTER 2016 | PAGE 2
RIDGEWORTH INSIGHTS: TAX-EXEMPT FIXED INCOME
The supply of new issues continued to be
ample in the third quarter. Year-to-date, new
issues totaled approximately $323.4 billion,
according to Thomson Reuters, a nearly 7.4%
increase from the same period in 2015. August
was a particularly heavy month, with volumes
amounting to 41% more than a year earlier, as
issuers sought to come to market ahead of
the presidential election and a possible Fed
rate hike. Estimates for the full year stand at
approximately $400 billion, roughly matching
2015’s total.1
Exhibit 1: Relative Value Ratios Have Increased
130
Increased Value
in Municipal Bonds
6/30/16 Ratio
3/31/16 Ratio
1992-2016 Average
120
110
Percent (%)
DEMAND LARGELY KEEPS PACE
100
90
80
70
60
1-Year
Demand, however, largely continued to absorb this new
issuance during the quarter with modest yield concessions.
Net new inflows to the municipal market remained
strong, as year-to-date inflows to municipal mutual funds
amounted to approximately $50 billion.
Including separate
accounts would push that figure above $75 billion and
perhaps closer to $100 billion. Demand was supported by
interest from international investors, who continue to find
municipals attractive, given that yields on many foreign
sovereign issues are near or below zero.1
Demand waned somewhat toward the end of the quarter,
particularly at the short end of the curve, as anticipation
of new regulations, set to take effect on October 14, led
to outflows from municipal money market funds. The new
regulations require a floating net asset value on institutional
municipal money market funds.
Yield ratios at the short end of the curve felt the impact of
these outflows, with yields on two-year AAA-rated munis
climbing to about 108% of those on comparable Treasuries.
Elsewhere on the curve, softening demand toward the end
of the quarter pushed yields up relative to Treasuries, with
10-year and 30-year AAA-rated munis at 95% and 100%,
respectively.
2-Year
3-Year
5-Year
7-Year
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
Increased Value
in Taxable Bonds
Municipal Bond Maturities
Source: Northern Trust Fixed Income
FUNDAMENTALS HAVE PEAKED
Attractive yields and low volatility have helped maintain
investor interest in municipal bonds, which continues to
be strong despite a deterioration of fundamentals.
Falling
revenues, combined with rising pension costs and a need
for new investment in infrastructure, continue to pressure
state and local finances.
In fact, according to a new report from the Pew Charitable
Trust, most states’ reserves, consisting of so-called “rainy
day funds” and end-of-year balances, are lower than before
the Great Recession. In 2007, just before the downturn,
reserves would have enabled the states to operate, on
average, for 41.3 days. But in fiscal 2015, that number
declined to 31.6, and for fiscal 2016 it is estimated to be just
29.2.2
The funding status of public pensions has deteriorated
as well.
Demographic factors and low investment returns
have combined to erode the average funding ratio by
nearly 30 percentage points since 2001, from 102.1% to just
73.6% in 2015.3 And with investment returns failing to meet
performance assumptions of 7-8%, public pensions are
likely to continue needing large contributions.
We believe that with these risks and the prospect of a
slow-growth economy over the long term, it is likely that
municipal credit fundamentals peaked in 2015.
RIDGEWORTH INSIGHTS: TAX-EXEMPT FIXED INCOME
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THIRD QUARTER 2016 | PAGE 3
Please contact 866.595.2470 or visit www.ridgeworth.com for more information.
Exhibit 2: The Annual Required Contribution for Public
Employees’ Pensions Continues to Rise
Percent (%) of Payroll
20
Portion of ARC left unpaid
Portion of ARC paid
15
14.0
10
9.2
9.8
10.4 10.9 10.8
14.5
15.4
16.0
14.4
11.8
7.4
5
0
5.3
2001
5.1
5.8
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Volatility is also likely to increase, given major events on
the horizon. These include the November election, the
Fed’s likely rate hike at the December Federal Open
Market Committee meeting and continued concerns
in the Eurozone over the European banking sector and
sovereign elections. As has been the case on several
occasions in the last year, the potential exists for event
risk to rekindle a flight to safety bid for high quality fixed
income assets that would drag municipal yields lower. In
addition, taxes are high and likely to remain so, continuing
to give an edge to tax-exempt investments.
2015
1
Fiscal Year
Source: Public Plans Database
OUR OUTLOOK
The coming months could provide investors with an
attractive entry point.
The supply of new issuance is likely to
remain high in the coming quarter, as issuers will continue
to come to market ahead of the presidential election and
the Fed’s December meeting. Inflows, on the other hand,
have been waning relative to prior months, so downward
pressure on prices could persist.
Credit Ratings noted herein are calculated based on S&P, Moody’s and Fitch ratings.
Generally, ratings range from AAA, the highest quality rating, to D, the lowest,
with BBB and above being called investment grade securities. BB and below are
considered below investment grade securities.
If the ratings from all three agencies
are available, securities will be assigned the median rating based on the numerical
equivalents. If the ratings are available from only two of the agencies, the more
conservative of the ratings will be assigned to the security. If the rating is available
from only one agency, then that rating will be used.
Any security not rated by S&P,
Moody’s, or Fitch is placed in the NR (Not Rated) category. Ratings do not apply to a
fund or to a fund’s shares. Ratings are subject to change.
Yield Curve is a curve that shows the relationship between yields and maturity dates
for a set of similar bonds, usually Treasuries, at any given point in time.
Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index is a widely recognized index of
investment grade tax-exempt bonds.
The eight subsets of the Index are market
weighted. The Index includes general obligations, revenue bonds, insured bonds,
and pre-refunded bonds. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Investment Risks:
Bonds offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will fluctuate
providing the potential for principal gain or loss.
Intermediate-term, higher-quality
bonds generally offer less risk than longer-term bonds and a lower rate of return.
Generally, a fund’s fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise
and vice versa. A fund’s income may be subject to certain state and local taxes and,
depending on your tax status, the federal alternative minimum tax. The geographical
concentration of portfolio holdings in a fund may involve increased risk.
The views expressed herein are as of the quarter-end specified.
This information is
general in nature, provided as general guidance on the subject covered, and is not
intended to be authoritative. It is subject to change without notice as market conditions
Thomson Reuters, as of 9/30/16. Date pulled: 10/3/16.
Pew analysis is based on data from The Fiscal Survey of States, which is
published each fall and spring by the National Association of State Budget
Officers.
Data for fiscal 2000 through 2013 are from “State General Fund,
Actual” tables published in fall reports, downloaded June 13, 2014, and
Dec. 9, 2014. Data for fiscal 2014 and 2015 are from the spring 2015 report
in tables “Fiscal 2014 State General Fund, Actual” and “Fiscal 2015 State
General Fund, Estimated,” downloaded June 16, 2015.
3
Source: PublicPlansData.org.
2
change, and is not intended to predict the performance of any individual security,
market sector, or RidgeWorth Fund.
All information contained herein is believed to
be correct, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Investors are advised to consult with
their investment professional about their specific financial needs and goals before
making any investment decision.
Before investing, investors should carefully read the
prospectus or summary prospectus and consider the fund’s
investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Please
call 888.784.3863 or visit ridgeworth.com to obtain a
prospectus or summary prospectus, which contains this and
other information about the funds.
©2016 RidgeWorth Investments.
All rights reserved. RidgeWorth Investments is
the trade name for RidgeWorth Capital Management LLC, an investment adviser
registered with the SEC and the adviser to the RidgeWorth Funds. RidgeWorth
Funds are distributed by RidgeWorth Distributors LLC, which is not affiliated with
the adviser.
Seix Investment Advisors LLC is a registered investment adviser with
the SEC and a member of the RidgeWorth Capital Management LLC network of
investment firms. All third party marks are the property of their respective owners.
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THIRD QUARTER 2016 | PAGE 4
ridgeworth.com | 866.595.2470
3333 Piedmont Road, NE
Suite 1500
A
tlanta, GA 30305
ABOUT RIDGEWORTH INVESTMENTS
RidgeWorth Investments—a global investment management firm headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, with approximately $40.1 billion
in assets under management as of September 30, 2016—offers investors access to a select group of boutique investment managers
and subadvisers. RidgeWorth wholly owns three boutiques: Ceredex Value Advisors LLC, Seix Investment Advisors LLC and Silvant
Capital Management LLC, and holds a minority ownership in Zevenbergen Capital Investments LLC. WCM Investment Management and
Capital Innovations, LLC serve as subadvisers to the RidgeWorth Funds. Through these six investment managers, RidgeWorth offers a
wide variety of fixed income and equity disciplines, providing investment management services to a growing client base that includes
institutional, individual and high net worth investors.
For more information about RidgeWorth, its boutiques and its subadvisers, visit ridgeworth.com.
ABOUT SEIX INVESTMENT ADVISORS LLC
Seix Investment Advisors, one of RidgeWorth’s investment management boutiques, has exclusively focused on managing fixed income
assets since 1992.
Seix seeks to generate competitive absolute and relative risk-adjusted returns over the full market cycle through
a bottom-up focused, top-down aware process. Seix employs multi-dimensional approaches based on strict portfolio construction
methodology, sell disciplines and trading strategies with prudent risk management as a cornerstone.
For more information about Seix, visit seixadvisors.com.
RFRI-TAXEX-0916
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