A Review by Seix Investment Advisors LLC
THIRD QUARTER 2016
RIDGEWORTH INSIGHTS:
INVESTMENT GRADE FIXED INCOME
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
•
Despite ultra-accommodative policies by the BOJ, the
Yen has continued to strengthen (+15.7% year-to-date
as of September 30), suggesting that investors believe
monetary policy has run its course and that additional
easing is unlikely.
•
Managing Director,
Seix Investment Advisors
In the most notable move by central banks in the quarter,
the Bank of Japan (BOJ) set a target of 0% for the 10-year
yield in an effort to boost bank profitability. Quantitative
and Qualitative Easing (QQE) with yield curve control is the
name of this latest monetary policy twist.
A constitutional reform referendum in Italy, to be held on
December 4, could revive anxieties about the Eurozone
unraveling. Polls suggest the outcome is too close to call.
Perry Troisi
Chief Investment Officer
and Chairman,
Seix Investment Advisors
•
•
James F. Keegan
The Federal Reserve Board (Fed) left the federal funds rate
unchanged, as expected, but three governors dissented,
voting for an increase.
Expectations of a December hike
ended the quarter at about 50/50.
Senior Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Senior Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Michael Rieger
Seth Antiles, PhD
Managing Director,
Seix Investment Advisors
Managing Director,
Seix Investment Advisors
Senior Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Senior Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Carlos Catoya
Jon Yozzo
Head of Investment Grade
Credit Research,
Seix Investment Advisors
Head of Investment Grade
Corporate Bond Trading,
Seix Investment Advisors
Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
RIDGEWORTH FUNDS
RidgeWorth Seix Core Bond
RidgeWorth Seix Corporate Bond
RidgeWorth Seix Limited Duration
RidgeWorth Seix Short-Term Bond
RidgeWorth Seix Total Return Bond
RidgeWorth Seix U.S. Government Securities
Ultra-Short Bond
RidgeWorth Seix U.S. Mortgage
RidgeWorth Seix Ultra-Short Bond
In the third quarter, financial markets once again took their
cue from central banks, but signs emerged that markets and
policymakers are beginning to question the efficacy of the
unconventional monetary policy that has dominated global
capital markets since the financial crisis.
The quarter began with markets reacting to central bank
pledges to provide any liquidity necessary in the aftermath of
the historic June 23 Brexit vote.
Investors piled into risk assets,
driving both stocks and credit markets higher. The Bloomberg
Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index finished the third quarter
up 0.46%, bringing the year-to-date total return to 5.80%.
Exhibit 1 illustrates the total return of select risk asset proxies.
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THIRD QUARTER 2016 | PAGE 2
RIDGEWORTH INSIGHTS: INVESTMENT GRADE FIXED INCOME
The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Index fell 0.28%.
The short end of the yield curve underperformed the long
end, and as a result the yield curved flattened slightly. The
yield on the 10-year Treasury rose from 1.47% to 1.60%,
after hitting an all-time low of 1.36% on July 8 (Source:
Bloomberg). While this benchmark yield was expected
to trade between 1.5% and 2.0%, we anticipated that any
breakout was likely to be lower, not higher.
6
5
The most noteworthy move in monetary policy came in
Japan, where the central bank announced that it would set
a yield target of 0% for the 10-year Japanese government
bond (JGB).
Yields on JGBs have fallen into negative
territory, in part due to the BOJ’s negative interest rate
policy (NIRP), and the yield on the 10-year note has been
negative since March 2016. The new policy is designed to
address the unintended consequence of NIRP: weakened
bank profitability.
4
3
2
1
0
6/30/16
7/15/16
7/29/16
8/15/16
8/31/16
9/15/16
9/30/16
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index
Bloomberg Barclays U.S.
Corporate High Yield Bond Index
S&P 500 Index
Sources: Bloomberg, as of 9/30/16. Date pulled: 10/10/16.
ARE DOUBTS EMERGING ABOUT ZIRP AND NIRP?
Despite stronger labor market conditions, the Fed opted
to leave the federal funds target unchanged, as markets
anticipated. But the September decision was not without
some dissent.
For the first time since 2011, three of 10
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voters dissented
with the FOMC decision, with all three favoring an
increase. This is only the fifth time in the last 30 years this
has occurred. It is worth noting that three FOMC officials
had no increase in the target rate in 2016 according to
the Fed’s “dot plot” (a quarterly projection where FOMC
members outline how they see the target rate evolving
over time).
A still unchanged fed funds target rate stands
in marked contrast to expectations at the beginning of the
year, when the median prediction by the FOMC was for
four rate hikes by year-end.
We do not anticipate, however, that NIRP, begun in
January 2016, will achieve the desired effect of stronger
economic growth and higher inflation. Negative interest
rates are deflationary rather than inflationary, in our
opinion, by virtue of the fact that they take income out of
the economy thereby forcing people to save more, and
as a result, they end up being counterproductive to both
growth and inflation.
We are not alone in our skepticism about ultraaccommodative monetary policies. Despite shifting to a
NIRP, the Yen has continued to appreciate.
Exhibit 2 below
illustrates the Yen’s gains in 2016. Speculative positioning
in the Yen also shifted to a net long in 2016, contrary to the
net short positioning that persisted for the better part of
2014 and 2015.
If the Fed is going to tighten this year, it is most likely to
occur in December, and as of late September, fed fund
futures were giving that scenario roughly a 50/50 chance.
Exhibit 2: The Yen Continues to Appreciate Despite NIRP
(12/31/15 – 9/30/16)
125
Last Price
High on 1/29/16
Average
Low on 8/18/16
120
115
110
105
101.35
100
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Sources: Bloomberg, as of 9/30/16. Date pulled: 10/10/16.
RIDGEWORTH INSIGHTS: INVESTMENT GRADE FIXED INCOME
101.35
121.14
108.56
99.89
Yen
Comparative Returns (%)
Exhibit 1: Stocks and Spread Assets Surge Post Brexit Vote
(6/30/16 – 9/30/16)
Odds of a hike may decline, however, in light of risks on
the horizon, including growing weakness in Europe’s
banking sector and a political referendum in Italy that
could revive fears of a Eurozone collapse.
July
Aug
Sep
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THIRD QUARTER 2016 | PAGE 3
Please contact 866.595.2470 or visit www.ridgeworth.com for more information.
FIRST BREXIT, NOW ITA-LEAVE?
Negative rates remain in place at the European Central
Bank (ECB), while the quantitative easing program is set
to end in March 2017. Additional action by the ECB could
certainly be forthcoming should either of the two primary
risks previously noted—weakening European banks and
the Italian reform referendum—materialize.
Of the two, the latter appears to be the more significant
threat. The proposed reform would strengthen the Prime
Minister and weaken the Senate. The growing anti-euro
Five-Star Movement opposes the referendum, and polling
data indicates the contest is a close call.
But in reality,
these tight poll numbers could signal a win for the anti-euro
vote, if Britain’s experience is any indication. There, Brexit
polling data failed to correctly gauge a fervent Euroskeptic
sentiment, surprising pollsters and markets alike.
If the anti-euro vote wins the December 4 referendum,
further calling the Eurozone’s future into question, central
banks are again likely to respond. A “No” vote could
provide the Fed with a “new risk” and therefore a reason
to postpone the expected December rate increase.
Bloomberg Barclays U.S.
Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of U.S.
bonds, which includes reinvestment of any earnings and is widely used to measure
the overall performance of the U.S. bond market.
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index is a widely recognized
index that tracks the performance of investment grade corporate bond funds.
Bloomberg Barclays U.S.
Corporate High Yield Bond Index is an unmanaged market
value-weighted index that covers the universe of fixed rate, non-investment grade
debt.
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Index includes public obligations of the U.S.
Treasury with a remaining maturity of one year or more.
Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the market value of all final goods and
services produced within a country in a given period. GDP per capita is often
considered an indicator of a country’s standard of living.
Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) is an unconventional monetary policy tool
whereby nominal target interest rates are set with a negative value, below the
theoretical lower bound of zero percent.
Yield Curve is a curve that shows the relationship between yields and maturity dates
for a set of similar bonds, usually Treasuries, at any given point in time.
Investment Risks:
Bonds offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will fluctuate
providing the potential for principal gain or loss.
Intermediate-term, higher-quality
bonds generally offer less risk than longer-term bonds and a lower rate of return.
Generally, a fund’s fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise
and vice versa. Mortgage-backed investments involve risk of loss due to prepayments
In Asia, China is also a vulnerability for the global
economy. China’s financial system is overleveraged, and
now its economy is undergoing a secular slowdown.
It
appears, however, that markets remain sanguine that
the government has ample resources to backstop the
financial system. Another round of market stress will surely
test the certitude of that belief.
OUTLOOK
Global economic growth is likely to remain sluggish,
and near-term gross domestic product (GDP) outlooks
have largely been revised downward. In September
the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development lowered its prior 2016 global growth
forecast, published last June.
The group now expects
2016 global GDP to expand by 2.9%, down from 3.0%,
and expects 2017 GDP to rise by 3.2%, down from 3.3%.
The World Trade Organization is less optimistic, estimating
global growth for 2016 to be 2.2%. The latter would
qualify as a global recession, which we alluded to at the
beginning of the year as a better than 50/50 proposition.
and, like any bond, due to default. Because of the sensitivity of mortgage-related
securities to changes in interest rates, a fund’s performance may be more volatile
than if it did not hold these securities.
U.S. Government guarantees apply only to the
underlying securities of a fund’s portfolio and not a fund’s shares.
The views expressed herein are as of the quarter-end specified. This information is
general in nature, provided as general guidance on the subject covered, and is not
intended to be authoritative.
It is subject to change without notice as market conditions
change, and is not intended to predict the performance of any individual security,
market sector, or RidgeWorth Fund. All information contained herein is believed to
be correct, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Investors are advised to consult with
their investment professional about their specific financial needs and goals before
making any investment decision.
Before investing, investors should carefully read the
prospectus or summary prospectus and consider the fund’s
investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses.
Please
call 888.784.3863 or visit ridgeworth.com to obtain a
prospectus or summary prospectus, which contains this and
other information about the funds.
©2016 RidgeWorth Investments. All rights reserved. RidgeWorth Investments is
the trade name for RidgeWorth Capital Management LLC, an investment adviser
registered with the SEC and the adviser to the RidgeWorth Funds.
RidgeWorth
Funds are distributed by RidgeWorth Distributors LLC, which is not affiliated with
the adviser. Seix Investment Advisors LLC is a registered investment adviser with
the SEC and a member of the RidgeWorth Capital Management LLC network of
investment firms. All third party marks are the property of their respective owners.
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THIRD QUARTER 2016 | PAGE 4
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A
tlanta, GA 30305
ABOUT RIDGEWORTH INVESTMENTS
RidgeWorth Investments—a global investment management firm headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, with approximately $40.1 billion
in assets under management as of September 30, 2016—offers investors access to a select group of boutique investment managers
and subadvisers. RidgeWorth wholly owns three boutiques: Ceredex Value Advisors LLC, Seix Investment Advisors LLC and Silvant
Capital Management LLC, and holds a minority ownership in Zevenbergen Capital Investments LLC. WCM Investment Management and
Capital Innovations, LLC serve as subadvisers to the RidgeWorth Funds. Through these six investment managers, RidgeWorth offers a
wide variety of fixed income and equity disciplines, providing investment management services to a growing client base that includes
institutional, individual and high net worth investors.
For more information about RidgeWorth, its boutiques and its subadvisers, visit ridgeworth.com.
ABOUT SEIX INVESTMENT ADVISORS LLC
Seix Investment Advisors, one of RidgeWorth’s investment management boutiques, has exclusively focused on managing fixed income
assets since 1992.
Seix seeks to generate competitive absolute and relative risk-adjusted returns over the full market cycle through
a bottom-up focused, top-down aware process. Seix employs multi-dimensional approaches based on strict portfolio construction
methodology, sell disciplines and trading strategies with prudent risk management as a cornerstone.
For more information about Seix, visit seixadvisors.com.
RFRI-INVG-0916
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