A Review by Seix Investment Advisors LLC
SECOND QUARTER 2016
RIDGEWORTH INSIGHTS:
INVESTMENT GRADE FIXED INCOME
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
•
•
•
Yields on sovereign debt worldwide continued to fall,
declining to record lows in some markets. Globally, over
$12 trillion in sovereign debt now trades with a negative
yield.
Economic growth remains sluggish worldwide and
central banks in developed economies continue to ease
monetary policy, but a global recession (global gross
domestic product below 3%) is now more likely than it
was at the end of 2015.
Perry Troisi
Chief Investment Officer
and Chairman,
Seix Investment Advisors
Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU), raising
the possibility that other EU member states will follow.
This resulted in market volatility and a flight to safety at
the end of the quarter.
•
James F. Keegan
A more dovish Federal Reserve Board (Fed) lent an
atypical tail wind to both Treasuries and risk assets over
most of the quarter and the central bank’s mid-June
meeting, press conference and updated summary of
economic projections ratified this cautious policy stance
in the face of “uncertainty.”
Managing Director,
Seix Investment Advisors
Senior Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Senior Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Michael Rieger
Seth Antiles, PhD
Managing Director,
Seix Investment Advisors
Managing Director,
Seix Investment Advisors
Senior Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Senior Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Carlos Catoya
Jon Yozzo
Head of Investment Grade
Credit Research,
Seix Investment Advisors
Head of Investment Grade
Corporate Bond Trading,
Seix Investment Advisors
Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
Portfolio Manager,
RidgeWorth Investments
RIDGEWORTH FUNDS
RidgeWorth Seix Core Bond
RidgeWorth Seix Corporate Bond
RidgeWorth Seix Limited Duration
RidgeWorth Seix Short-Term Bond
RidgeWorth Seix Total Return Bond
RidgeWorth Seix U.S. Government Securities
Ultra-Short Bond
RidgeWorth Seix U.S.
Mortgage
RidgeWorth Seix Ultra-Short Bond
The second quarter came to a close with British voters
choosing to leave the EU in a closely divided referendum,
surprising capital markets worldwide. The vote raised the
possibility that exit referendums could follow in other EU
member states, contributing to market volatility. Safe haven
assets such as government bonds, the dollar, yen, Swiss franc
and gold benefited from the turmoil.
.
SECOND QUARTER 2016 | PAGE 2
RIDGEWORTH INSIGHTS: INVESTMENT GRADE FIXED INCOME
The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index closed out the
second quarter up 2.21% while the Barclays U.S. Treasury
Index rose by 2.10%. Yield on the 10-year Treasury fell from
1.77% to 1.47%.1
EVEN LOWER FOR EVEN LONGER?
Yields on sovereign debt continued to fall during the
quarter, becoming increasingly negative and/or declining
to record lows in some markets.
As of June 30th, using
the Barclays Global Aggregate Index, over $12 trillion in
sovereign debt now trades with a negative yield. The total
grows to just under $25 trillion for debt trading at 1% or
lower.
Yields on U.S. Treasuries also declined further during the
quarter, though not quite to record levels.
A number of
factors are responsible for these low and declining yields.
First, deflationary pressures (excessive debt, excess global
capacity, negative interest rate policies in other markets
and low productivity) are overwhelming any inflationary
pressures resulting from modestly higher commodity
prices.
Second, negative yields on sovereign debt in other
markets make even the near-record low yields on
Treasuries attractive from a global relative value
perspective. Third, demand for duration and high quality
income producing assets from pension funds and
insurance companies ensures that the Treasury market is
well-bid. These factors are all keeping a cap on yields at
this point.
Exhibit 1: $12 Trillion of Negative-Yielding Bonds
15
$12.17T
$12.80T
$11.75T
Trillion ($)
12
$10.60T
9
Performance in the second quarter for the broader fixed
income markets was strong with long treasuries gaining
nearly 6.5% while CCC-rated corporate bonds returned
nearly 12.0%.
Year-to-date returns are somewhat atypical
in that the opposite ends of the spectrum are both
performing very well, with long treasuries up 15.1% while
CCC-rated corporate bonds are up 16%. Corporate bonds
overall also posted a good quarter and first half of the
year, up nearly 3.6% and 7.7% respectively, led by energy
and metals & mining in both periods.
RISING RISKS
While Brexit does create uncertainty in the short term
for the United Kingdom (UK), in the longer term, more
uncertainty is likely with respect to the EU, especially if
the Brexit vote is followed by exit referendums in other
EU member countries. In the near term, Italy will hold a
constitutional reform referendum in October while France
and Germany will hold major elections in 2017.
In our opinion, leaving the EU will not be catastrophic for
the UK.
In fact, over the long term, leaving the centrally
planned bureaucratic super-state that the EU has become
presents the UK with an opportunity to become the most
dynamic, innovative economy in Europe.
Risks are also rising in Europe’s financial system, as
highlighted after the Brexit vote as financials came under
significant pressure. While European banks generally
are undercapitalized, Italian banks have recently been
exposed in the market because of longstanding issues
with very high nonperforming loans, and shares of these
banks are down substantially. These developments are
not new, but exogenous shocks like Brexit expose the
fragility of the EU banking system and the lack of progress
made recapitalizing and restructuring the system since the
global financial crisis.
6
3
0
Less than Zero
Zero to 1%
1% to 2%
More than 2%
Yield-to-Worst
1
Source: Barclays Global Aggregate Index as of 6/30/16.
Date pulled: 7/12/16.
RIDGEWORTH INSIGHTS: INVESTMENT GRADE FIXED INCOME
Bloomberg as of 6/30/16. Date pulled: 7/11/16.
.
SECOND QUARTER 2016 | PAGE 3
Please contact 866.595.2470 or visit www.ridgeworth.com for more information.
OUTLOOK
In our view, the risk of a global recession is rising. First
quarter economic growth in the U.S. was revised to 1.1%
in the final estimate (up from just 0.5% in the first of three
estimates) and second quarter growth is expected to
come in around 2.5%, which would put first half growth at
about 1.8%. As such, the U.S.
economy continues to just
muddle along. As for a U.S. recession, we would put the
chances somewhere between 33% and 50% over the next
12 months.
Japan’s economy remains weak, and “Abenomics,” the
plan put forth by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2012,
which involves loose monetary policy, fiscal stimulus and
structural reforms, has failed.
China’s structural slowdown
is also affecting the global economy, particularly
emerging markets. At the beginning of 2016, we put a
50% probability on a global recession in the next 12 – 18
months, but that probability has increased, in our opinion.
Barclays Global Aggregate Index is a flagship measure of global investment grade
debt from twenty-four local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark
includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds
from both developed and emerging markets issuers.
Barclays U.S.
Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of U.S. bonds, which
includes reinvestment of any earnings and is widely used to measure the overall
performance of the U.S. bond market.
Barclays U.S.
Treasury Index includes public obligations of the U.S. Treasury with a
remaining maturity of one year or more.
Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Credit Ratings noted herein are calculated based on S&P, Moody’s and Fitch ratings.
Generally, ratings range from AAA, the highest quality rating, to D, the lowest,
with BBB and above being called investment grade securities. BB and below are
considered below investment grade securities.
If the ratings from all three agencies
are available, securities will be assigned the median rating based on the numerical
equivalents. If the ratings are available from only two of the agencies, the more
conservative of the ratings will be assigned to the security. If the rating is available
from only one agency, then that rating will be used.
Any security not rated by S&P,
Moody’s, or Fitch is placed in the NR (Not Rated) category. Ratings do not apply to a
fund or to a fund’s shares. Ratings are subject to change.
Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of principal) of a
fixed-income investment to a change in interest rates.
Duration is expressed as a
number of years.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the market value of all final goods and
services produced within a country in a given period. GDP per capita is often
considered an indicator of a country’s standard of living.
Investment Risks:
Bonds offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will fluctuate
providing the potential for principal gain or loss. Intermediate-term, higher-quality
bonds generally offer less risk than longer-term bonds and a lower rate of return.
Generally, a fund’s fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise
and vice versa.
Mortgage-backed investments involve risk of loss due to prepayments
and, like any bond, due to default. Because of the sensitivity of mortgage-related
securities to changes in interest rates, a fund’s performance may be more volatile
than if it did not hold these securities. U.S.
Government guarantees apply only to the
underlying securities of a fund’s portfolio and not a fund’s shares.
In light of economic weakness, and in the wake of Brexit,
we expect more easing by the European Central Bank
and the Bank of Japan. The Bank of England (BOE) has
also indicated that rate cuts are likely this summer. A
return to quantitative easing by the BOE is also on the
table.
In the U.S., the Fed was dovish even before the
Brexit vote, and now is even less likely to act. We do not
expect a rate hike in 2016, and in fact, the Fed Funds
futures imply the Fed may not hike until 2018.
We believe economic weakness and uncertainty
around the Brexit negotiations will result in greater
market volatility, and that flows into safe haven assets
will continue to benefit Treasuries, the dollar, the yen,
the Swiss franc and gold. In fact, the yield on the 10year Treasury is likely headed to 1%.
We believe that
investment grade corporate bonds will benefit in this
environment as international investors’ search for positive
carry persists.
The views expressed herein are as of the quarter-end specified. This information is
general in nature, provided as general guidance on the subject covered, and is not
intended to be authoritative. It is subject to change without notice as market conditions
change, and is not intended to predict the performance of any individual security,
market sector, or RidgeWorth Fund.
All information contained herein is believed to
be correct, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Investors are advised to consult with
their investment professional about their specific financial needs and goals before
making any investment decision.
Before investing, investors should carefully read the
prospectus or summary prospectus and consider the fund’s
investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Please
call 888.784.3863 or visit ridgeworth.com to obtain a
prospectus or summary prospectus, which contains this and
other information about the funds.
©2016 RidgeWorth Investments.
All rights reserved. RidgeWorth Investments is
the trade name for RidgeWorth Capital Management LLC, an investment adviser
registered with the SEC and the adviser to the RidgeWorth Funds. RidgeWorth
Funds are distributed by RidgeWorth Distributors LLC, which is not affiliated with
the adviser.
Seix Investment Advisors LLC is a registered investment adviser with
the SEC and a member of the RidgeWorth Capital Management LLC network of
investment firms. All third party marks are the property of their respective owners.
.
SECOND QUARTER 2016 | PAGE 4
ridgeworth.com | 866.595.2470
3333 Piedmont Road, NE
Suite 1500
A
tlanta, GA 30305
ABOUT RIDGEWORTH INVESTMENTS
RidgeWorth Investments—a global investment management firm headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia with approximately $37.0 billion
in assets under management as of June 30, 2016—offers investors access to a select group of boutique investment managers and
subadvisers. RidgeWorth wholly owns three boutiques: Ceredex Value Advisors LLC, Seix Investment Advisors LLC and Silvant Capital
Management LLC, and holds a minority ownership in Zevenbergen Capital Investments LLC. WCM Investment Management and Capital
Innovations, LLC serve as subadvisers to the RidgeWorth Funds. Through these six investment managers, RidgeWorth offers a wide variety
of fixed income and equity disciplines, providing investment management services to a growing client base that includes institutional,
individual and high net worth investors.
For more information about RidgeWorth, its boutiques and its subadvisers, visit ridgeworth.com.
ABOUT SEIX INVESTMENT ADVISORS LLC
Seix Investment Advisors, one of RidgeWorth’s investment management boutiques, has exclusively focused on managing fixed income
assets since 1992.
Seix seeks to generate competitive absolute and relative risk-adjusted returns over the full market cycle through
a bottom-up focused, top-down aware process. Seix employs multi-dimensional approaches based on strict portfolio construction
methodology, sell disciplines and trading strategies with prudent risk management as a cornerstone.
For more information about Seix, visit seixadvisors.com.
RFRI-INVG-0616
.