Our Perspective
TAX REFORM AND MUNIS – JANUARY 2017
Ronald Schwartz, CFA
Managing Director,
Senior Portfolio Manager,
Tax-Exempt
Ron is a Senior Portfolio
Manager focused on the TaxExempt Strategies. He has
worked in the investment
management industry since
1982. Ron received a B.A. in
Business Administration from
Adelphi University and is a CFA
Charterholder and a member of
the CFA Society of Orlando.
The Trump election is clearly a potential paradigm shift for the U.S.
economy and asset markets,
and until there is greater clarity surrounding budget and policy priorities in the coming weeks and
months, market volatility will likely remain high. Per our election report, we believe the election
impact on the municipal market will surround three key policies: tax reform, repeal of the
Affordable Care Act (ACA), and an increase in domestic infrastructure spending. This month we
are going to focus on tax reform and the possible implications for tax exempt bonds.
Tax reform could impact municipal bonds directly by eliminating or capping the tax exemption or
indirectly by lowering of the personal and corporate marginal tax rates, thereby possibly changing
investor demand.
As you can see in the pie chart below, direct retail investors subject to
individual tax rates constitute the largest holders of municipal debt at 66% (Households, Mutual
Funds, and Money Market Funds). Institutional investor base is primarily made up of banks with
14%, P&C insurance at 10%, and life insurance companies that own 5% of the municipal bond
market.
Scott Andreson
Director, Municipal Research
Scott is the Director of Municipal
Research for Seix Investment
Advisors. He has more than 18
years of investment experience.
He earned his MPA from USC
and is a current officer of the
National Federation of Municipal
Analysts.
CONTRIBUTORS
Dusty Self
Managing Director,
Senior Portfolio Manager,
Tax-Exempt
Phillip Hooks, CFA
Vice President,
Municipal Credit Research
Source: Fed Flow of Funds, J.P.
Morgan as of 9/30/16
. Our Perspective
TAX REFORM AND MUNIS – JANUARY 2017
Tax reform will likely be one of the main public policy issues in 2017, as both President Trump and House Speaker Ryan have
repeatedly called for a lower and simpler tax code. The probability of tax reform has clearly increased with Republican control
of Congress and the White House. The table below shows the current individual tax rates, along with the Trump Plan, and the
House GOP Plan.
Tax
Current Law*
Trump Plan
House GOP Plan
Individual Tax Rates
10, 15, 25, 28, 36, 35, 39.6%
12, 25, 33%
12, 25, 33%
Top Capital Gains/
Dividend Tax Rate
20% (plus 3.8% surtax)
20%
16.50%
Itemized Deductions
3% lost for AGI > $313,800
Limited to $200K
Eliminates with exceptions and caps
AMT
Parallel tax calculation
Eliminates
Eliminates
Investment Surtax
3.80%
Eliminates
Eliminates
Estate Tax
40%, $5,490,000 exemption
Eliminates (s.t. cap gain limit)
Eliminates
Corp Interest Deduct.
Max CIT rate 35%
Max CIT rate 15%, Caps
Ends deferral of income from controlled foreign subsidiaries, preserves the foreign tax credit.
Taxes pass through businesses at the rate of 15 percent commensurate with the traditional corporations.
Source: Merrill Lynch
* Inflation adjusted amounts for 2017
As we have previously noted, past tax-cuts have shown no correlation to a change in muni yields, and a drop to 33% for high
income earners will likely have limited impact (see Exhibit 1 below).
Since 1980, the top marginal tax rate has fluctuated from 70%
in 1980 to 28% in 1988, and municipal rates have trended down with Treasury rates with minimal change in demand for tax exempt
bonds. The most recent tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 did not impact muni rates at all (see Exhibit 2 below). Over 75% of the country’s
infrastructure has historically been funded by municipal bonds, which will remain a strong headwind against any tax reform that
negatively impacts the value of tax exemption going forward.
President Trump’s tax plan did not mention the municipal tax
exemption and last month he met with the U.S. Conference of Mayors and assured them that he supports the municipal tax
exemption.
Exhibit 1: Marginal rates would fall by 7pp on half
of all muni interest claimed by individuals
Exhibit 2: 10YR AAA MMD yields have followed 10YR
UST yields downwards and show no correlation with the
top marginal tax-rate
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, IRS
Source: Citi Research
. Our Perspective
TAX REFORM AND MUNIS – JANUARY 2017
Municipal bonds are less attractive to corporations if the after-tax yields are comparable to taxable alternatives. As you can see
below, the largest increase in municipal holdings over the past several years has come from institutional investors with U.S.
Banks (+139%) and Life Insurance companies (+187%), while mutual funds have increased only 50%. Municipal bonds have
provided attractive after tax yield versus other taxable fixed income investments, which has led to the strong growth in corporate
holdings. Municipal bond yields would have to increase a minimum of 60bps in order to compensate for the reduction in the
corporate tax to 25%.* Therefore, the lowering of the corporate tax rate, which we think is highly likely, is likely to limit market
liquidity and increase market volatility by lowering institutional tax exempt demand.
Source: Fed Flow of Funds, J.P.
Morgan as of 9/30/16
2017 will likely be a very volatile year for municipal bonds due to headlines surrounding tax policy, much like the final quarter of
2016. While we feel strongly that tax exemption will be maintained for municipal bonds, market volatility will remain high due to
policy uncertainty and possible shifts in investor demand going forward.
*According to Morgan Stanley 1/5/2017 “Muni Strategy Playbook”
The assertions in this perspective are Seix Investment Advisors’ opinion.
Investment Risks: All investments involve risk. Debt securities (bonds) offer a relatively stable level of income, although bond prices will fluctuate providing the
potential for principal gain or loss.
Intermediate-term, higher-quality bonds generally offer less risk than longer-term bonds and a lower rate of return. Generally,
a portfolio’s fixed income securities will decrease in value if interest rates rise and vice versa. A portfolio’s income may be subject to certain state and local
taxes and, depending on your tax status, the federal alternative minimum tax.
There is no guarantee a specific investment strategy will be successful.
This information and general market-related projections are based on information available at the time, are subject to change without notice, are for
informational purposes only, are not intended as individual or specific advice, may not represent the opinions of the entire firm, and may not be relied upon for
individual investing purposes. Information provided is general and educational in nature, provided as general guidance on the subject covered, and is not
intended to be authoritative. All information contained herein is believed to be correct, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
This information may coincide or
conflict with activities of the portfolio managers. It is not intended to be, and should not be construed as investment, legal, estate planning, or tax advice. Seix
Investment Advisors does not provide legal, estate planning or tax advice.
Investors are advised to consult with their investment processional about their
specific financial needs and goals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
©2017 Seix Investment Advisors LLC. Seix Investment Advisors is a registered investment adviser with the SEC and a member of the RidgeWorth Capital
Management LLC network of investment firms.
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