Institutional Investing Trends
for a Deleveraging Economy
Lee Partridge
Jeremy Radcliffe
Worth Wray
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2
.
Executive Summary
Credit typically acts like fuel for economic growth. As we saw in the United States from 1944 to 2009,
credit expansion can drive unnaturally strong economic growth as cash flows and additional
borrowing boost consumption and investment; while contraction in credit (“deleveraging”), which last
occurred in the United States from 1929 to 1943, can impose unnaturally weak economic growth as
cash flows are diverted to retire debts incurred in previous years.
After the largest credit expansion in history and a truly global financial crisis, the United States
economy – along with the rest of the developed world – has just begun a long process of
deleveraging, which is already dragging on growth, suppressing interest rates, and distorting the
market cycle. At Salient, we believe understanding this deleveraging environment and its implications
for investing is an important task for anyone who chooses to put capital at risk today.
In this paper, we are going to briefly explain deleveraging, how it typically happens, and why we
believe it requires a different approach to the investing process. Then, we are going to describe five
actionable examples of strategies being employed by institutional investors in this environment: (1)
balancing core portfolio risks at a specific volatility level, (2) gathering diversifying “alternative betas”
with rules-based tools, (3) identifying yield opportunities supported by durable cash flows, (4)
migrating active equity exposure from style boxes to a global, unconstrained framework, and (5)
focusing private investments in opportunities to garner the potential illiquidity premium.
3
.
Beyond the Business Cycle:
How Credit Shapes the Investing Environment
Conventional wisdom suggests that investors should manage their portfolios around changes in the
business cycle, or the tendency for economic activity to swing from expansion to recession every five
to ten years. The cycle typically begins with positive economic growth and low levels of inflation. As
an expansion builds, momentum and credit growth accelerate, aggregate demand starts to exceed
aggregate supply, production is stretched as the actual output (or GDP) of the economy exceeds its
long-run potential output (a “positive output gap”), inflation increases, and the economy begins to
feel the strain of this disparity. The business cycle usually peaks after the central bank raises interest
rates to slow credit growth and prevent excessive inflation.
When the actual output of the economy
falls below potential output (“negative output gap”), inflation moderates, economic growth slows, and
the economy eventually contracts. Recession typically ends with central bank stimulus that is
intended to encourage economic growth, and a new expansion typically begins… but not this time. 1
Nearly four years after the financial crisis ended in March 2009, the US economy continues to muddle
through its weakest recovery in more than sixty years.
Unlike “normal” business cycles, the Fed has not
been able to restore the economy to trend growth even after dropping its policy interest rate to zero
and expanding its balance sheet by trillions of dollars through direct asset purchases (often called
“quantitative easing” or “QE” for short). In response to unprecedented Fed policy action, economic
growth is still running well below its long term average, the money supply has only increased at a
sluggish pace, and policymakers are more concerned about Japanese-style deflation than inflation. 2
So what is going on today that is so different from every other business cycle in recent memory? Why
is real GDP growth only running around 2% per year? 3 We believe the answer lies in the graph on the
next page, and, as the graph suggests, we believe these challenges could potentially last for the next
decade—if not longer.
1
Dalio, Ray, (2012).
How the Economic Machine Works: A Template for Understanding What is Happening Now. Bridgewater Associates White Paper.
Koo, Richard, (2012). The World in Balance Sheet Recession: Causes, Cures, and Politics.
Real World Economics Review, Issue 58, 19-37.
3
Federal Reserve z.1 Report, Statistical Abstract of the United States. January 2013
2
4
. *
Source: Federal Reserve z.1 Report, Statistical Abstract of the United States. January 2013. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
*Debt to GDP is the amount of national debt of a country as a percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). “Private Debt/GDP” measures private
debt against this measure whereas “Government Debt/GDP” measures the debt of the federal government.
A low debt-to-GDP ratio indicates an
economy that produces a large number of goods and services and probably profits that are high enough to pay back debts.
The business cycle is ultimately driven by changes in the rate of credit growth, but history suggests
there is typically a larger credit cycle that repeats every fifty to eighty years as total debt rises and falls
relative to total GDP. 4 As you can see in the graph of US total debt to GDP, this multi-generation credit
cycle has two distinct phases: credit expansion and deleveraging. Credit expansion tends to support
economic growth over several generations as current cash flows are used to increase consumption
and investment; and deleveraging tends to drag on economic growth as current cash flows are used
to retire debt incurred in previous years.
These are fundamentally different economic environments
that we believe require different investment plans. Credit expansion tends to boost GDP growth and
favor growth-oriented assets, like equity; and deleveraging tends to reduce GDP growth and favor
deflation-oriented assets, like government bonds. 5
According to the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, the US economy has moved through
twelve complete business cycles since 1945, and five since 1980; 6 but every expansion and every
recession played out against the backdrop of a single credit expansion that lasted from 1944 to early
2009.
7 Over the course of this 65 year credit expansion, strong returns from the equity markets have
reinforced a “stocks for the long run” view, and investors have grown accustomed to betting on
growth. Conventional wisdom has dictated that the bulk of an investor’s portfolio should be split
between stocks and bonds: stocks for capturing growth when times are good and bonds for
generating income and preserving wealth when times are bad. As a result, many individuals today
tend to own a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, or a variation of this design.
The traditional “60/40
portfolio” may appear diversified in dollar terms, but in risk terms it is heavily concentrated toward
equity markets because stocks have exhibited nearly three times the volatility of bonds over the past
4
Reinhart, Carmen, and Kenneth Rogoff, (2008). This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. NBER Working Paper 13882.5 Dalio, Ray, (2012).
How the
Economic Machine Works: A Template for Understanding What is Happening Now. Bridgewater Associates White Paper.
5
Dalio, Ray, (2012). How the Economic Machine Works: A Template for Understanding What is Happening Now.
Bridgewater Associates White Paper.
6
Business Cycle Expansions & Contractions, (2013). NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. (http://www.nber.org/cycles/US_Business_Cycle_Expansions_and_Contractions_20120423.pdf)
7
Roxburgh, Charles, Susan Lund, Tony Wimmer, Eric Amar, Charles Atkins, Ju-Hon Kwek, Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, (2010).
Debt and Deleveraging: The Global Credit Bubble and its
Economic Consequences. McKinsey Global Institute.
5
. four decades. 8 Therefore, it is no wonder the 60/40 portfolio has closely tracked the equity market
over time. Almost all of its potential earning power is in equities.
Source: Salient Capital Advisors, LLC. February 2013.
The calculation of Risk Contribution from equities and bonds is based on Modern Portfolio Theory’s calculation of portfolio risk where the contribution
of equities and bonds to the portfolio risk are calculated based on dollar weights, standard deviation and correlation of equities and bonds.
Within this framework, it is logical to think of equities as the primary tool for capturing growth and
bonds as the primary tool for reducing potential risk across the portfolio.
Moving beyond the passive,
regularly-rebalanced 60/40 allocation, many active investors have typically used this allocation
framework as their starting point for decades – raising the allocation to equities when their outlook for
growth is positive and lowering the allocation to equities when their outlook for growth is negative or
uncertain.
Until recently, even the most sophisticated institutions have created actively-managed portfolios that
approximate a 60% allocation (or more) to equity-substitutes and 40% (or less) to bond substitutes.
Based on our research, several of the largest university endowments (assets exceeding $1 billion), for
example, have broadened their portfolios to include more asset classes, like commodities, or
alternative strategies, such as hedge funds and private equity. Expanding the mix of assets and
strategies in these portfolios was intended to boost potential returns and achieve better
diversification, while providing better downside risk; but in practice, these institutions’ portfolios were
still loading on growth-oriented risk factors, like equity risk and credit spreads, 9 while often adding
unnecessary costs through outside managers. 10
8
PerTrac, by Salient Capital Advisors, LLC.
March 2013.
Page, Sebastien and Mark Taborsky, (2010). The Myth of Diversification: Risk Factors vs Asset Classes. PIMCO Viewpoints (September).
10
Ellis, Charles, (2012).
Murder on the Orient Express: The Mystery of Underperformance. Financial Analysts Journal, Volume 68, 13-19.
9
6
. NACUBO is the National Association of College and University Business Officers. Data displayed here has been rounded for illustrative purposes only.
September 2011.
We believe the original endowment model was an important first step toward diversification, but still
fails to provide truly balanced exposures across many risk factors. Ultimately, the 60/40 and
endowment approaches depend on the same thing, a bet on economic growth, which is unlikely to
produce favorable results against a weak growth backdrop. The dilemma is that deleveraging may
happen once, or maybe twice, in a lifetime.
This is an unfamiliar economic environment since few
people living in the United States today can rely on personal experience from the last US deleveraging
which lasted from 1929 to 1943. Against the pro-growth backdrop of credit expansion, equity-heavy
portfolio allocations, like the 60/40 and endowment style portfolios, have been profitable for many
investors; but we believe deleveraging demands an altogether different approach to asset allocation
and portfolio construction. 11
Fortunately, balance sheet deleveraging is not uncommon throughout history.
12 There have been 32
relevant deleveraging episodes around the world since 1930 and all of them followed major financial
crises. Building on insights from Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, recent research from the
McKinsey Global Institute reveals that an economy can deleverage in four ways: (1) belt-tightening or
austerity, (2) default or restructuring, (3) inflation, and (4) rapid economic growth. 13
(1) Austerity: Reduces debt slowly relative to income by increasing savings and reducing
spending.
This process of slowly paying down debt typically takes many years, if not decades,
and often leads to below average real GDP growth. Central banks and federal governments
typically play a key role in engineering this kind of deleveraging. Policy errors can result in the
“default” path, but the right mix of monetary and fiscal policy can produce what Ray Dalio at
Bridgewater has called the “beautiful deleveraging.” Most economies have followed this
deleveraging path since 1930, but rarely from such high private and public debt levels across
the developed world.
(Example: United States from 2009 to 2013)
11
Dalio, Ray, (2012). How the Economic Machine Works: A Template for Understanding What is Happening Now. Bridgewater Associates White Paper.
The Great Deleveraging, (2012).
UBS Financial Services Inc.
13
Roxburgh, Charles, Susan Lund, Tony Wimmer, Eric Amar, Charles Atkins, Ju-Hon Kwek, Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, (2010). Debt and Deleveraging: The Global Credit Bubble and its
Economic Consequences. McKinsey Global Institute.
12
7
.
(2) Default: Reduces outstanding debts through refusing or rescheduling debt payments. This
process can be swift and painful since it often results in collapsing income and money supply.
Defaults can lead to disorderly deleveraging and often bring on full-scale depression. The
resulting fall in income typically leads to a rise in debt relative to income, meaning that
another form of deleveraging must follow. Although the United States avoided this painful
path in early 2009, we believe it could still happen in the event of a major policy error.
(Example: United States from 1929 to 1932)
(3) Inflation: Reduces debt-to-income ratios as high inflation causes nominal incomes to rise
faster than nominal debt.
High inflation may boost nominal growth, but it typically slows real
GDP growth over the same period. Although many investors are worried about inflation today,
deleveraging basically “breaks” the credit creation process and most often prevents the selfreinforcing cycle of rising wages, spending, and prices. Throughout history, deleveraging
through inflation has typically happened when central banks lose their credibility and a
currency collapses.
Despite widespread fears about the US Dollar, it is still the “cleanest dirty
shirt” of the major reserve currencies. Thus, we believe high inflation or hyperinflation is a very
low-probability outcome until the private sector deleverages enough for the credit creation
process to resume. (Example: Spain from 1976 to 1980)
(4) Growth: Reduce debt to income through rapid real income growth.
Deleveraging through
growth has only happened once after a major financial crisis since 1930, and it happened as
the United States was massively mobilizing for World War II. We believe this path is the least
likely outcome for today’s deleveraging, although a “game-changing” technological
innovation could induce rapid growth, in theory. (Example: United States from 1933 to 1939)
Now that credit expansion has given way to deleveraging in the United States – and across most of
developed world – traditionally allocated portfolios may not be prepared for an economic
environment with potential sluggish real GDP growth, zero interest rates, and little room for policy
mistakes.
As you can see from the chart on the next page, debt to GDP has been falling in the United
States since 2009 and we believe the process may take years to run. As debt falls relative to income,
the deleveraging process will likely drag on today’s growth as current cash flows are used to retire
debts incurred in the past, many of which were put toward nonproductive uses like Spanish beach
condos, vacation homes in Ireland, or “McMansions” in the United States. So far, the mix of debt
reduction and policy intervention has been one of the most “beautiful” on record 14; but we believe
this will continue to be a daunting task for policymakers with significant potential downside risk to
markets.
14
"Beautiful deleveraging" describes the rare instance where fiscal and monetary policy offsets the negative effects of debt reduction on economic activity.
Source: Dalio, Ray, (2012). An In
Depth Look at Deleveragings. Bridgewater Associates White Paper.
8
.
450%
Progress in US Deleveraging
Public Debt/GDP, Private Debt/GDP, & Total Debt/GDP
-35% of GDP
400%
350%
300%
Total Credit Market Debt/GDP
Total Government Debt/GDP
Debt/GDP %
Private Credit Market Debt/GDP
250%
-59% of GDP
200%
150%
+24% of GDP
100%
50%
0%
1972
1982
1992
2002
2012
Date
Source: Federal Reserve z.1 Report, Statistical Abstract of the United States.
For Illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
“Total Credit Market Debt/GDP” measures the combined credit market debt against the US Gross Domestic Product, whereas “Total
Government Debt/GDP” measures the debt of the federal government against this same standard and “Private Credit Market Debt/GDP”
measures the debt of the private credit market against it.
Given these challenges, we believe the most innovative institutional investors have already started
adapting their portfolios for a long-term deleveraging environment. The process entails balancing
core market exposures to different economic scenarios rather than betting on one path, like growth or
inflation, and refocusing the investment process away from relying on economic and market
predictions. Following this example, it may be wise for individual investors to consider five strategies:
(1) balancing core portfolio risks at a specific volatility level, (2) gathering diversifying “alternative
betas” with rules-based tools, (3) identifying yield opportunities supported by durable cash flow, (4)
migrating active equity exposure from style boxes to a global, unconstrained framework, and (5)
focusing private investments in the best opportunities to garner the potential illiquidity premium.
Institutional Investing Trends:
How Innovative Institutions are Adapting to Deleveraging
(1)
Risk Parity: Target a Specific Volatility Level & Balance Core Portfolio Risks
Many innovative institutions are starting to adopt a strategy called “risk parity” as way to
seek diversification from equity risk and balance their core portfolios to different economic
scenarios.
Risk parity can be thought of as a multi-asset class global strategy whose
components are equally weighted by risk (instead of capitalization-weighted, or equally
weighted by invested amount) at multiple levels (asset class; geography or other
classification; individual security), and whose overall exposures are designed to rise and
fall inversely with market volatility to deliver a consistent, targeted level of overall
9
. portfolio risk or volatility. In other words, the idea is to build a diversified core portfolio
that targets a specific level of volatility and then equally distribute its risk budget between
the core return streams that respond differently to economic drivers: equity/credit
(growth), rates (deflation), and commodities (inflation), and momentum (sentiment).
The asset allocation percentages have been rounded for illustrative purposes. Note: The Sample Risk Parity Portfolio is constructed using the
MSCI AC World Index (Equities), Continuous Commodity Index (Commodities), Barclays US Aggregate Long Treasury Index (Rates) and
Barclay CTA Index (Momentum). For illustrative purposes only.
An investor cannot invest directly in an index.
Dollar Allocations are the particular number of dollars that are set apart for the purchase of a specific asset within a portfolio. For example,
if a 60/40 portfolio was purchased at $100, $60 would be used to purchase equities, while $40 would be used to purchase bonds. Risk
Allocations, alternatively, speak to the total amounts of risk that are associated with each asset within a portfolio.
Volatility is a
mathematical measure of uncertainty or risk about the size of changes in a security’s value. A higher volatility means the fluctuations in
value will be higher, while a lower volatility means those peaks and valleys will be smaller. Notional refers to the amount of money, or
exposure, used to calculate payments.
In other words, every dollar invested in this sample risk parity portfolio is exposed to $1.70 worth of
assets.
While traditional allocation frameworks, like the 60/40, target specific dollar allocations to
each asset class and allow the risk allocation to float, this approach has historically resulted
in heavy reliance on more volatile equity returns (as the 60/40 example on page 5
illustrates). 15 In contrast, the risk parity framework starts with a target risk allocation and
then allows the dollar allocation to adjust as the portfolio regularly rebalances to maintain
its target risk. We believe the end result is a truly diversified portfolio which is balanced to
core risk factors rather than dollar allocations, and passively implemented.
16
(2)
Alternative Beta: Gather Diversifying Return Streams with Rules-Based Tools
We believe more investors are starting to embrace diversifying return streams that offer
the opportunity to lower risk and potentially improve portfolio returns when combined
with a core allocation. Historically, the only way to access complementary strategies has
been through structures like hedge funds and commodity pools (“managed futures”
strategies), but we have seen a significant migration of capital away from these high-cost
structures to lower-cost, liquid alternative mutual funds for the past few years. 17 In our
opinion, the problem with many liquid alternatives is that these products frequently run at
very low volatility levels and often cannot provide enough diversifying impact at modest
allocations, even if they exhibit low or negative correlations to traditional stocks and
bonds; while the challenge with hedge funds (beyond the typical investor qualifications,
high minimums, illiquidity and high fees) is that many active manager returns can be
explained with a combination of market returns (beta) and naturally occurring
phenomena in the markets (alternative beta), rather than unique manager skill.
15
Partridge, Lee and Roberto Croce (2012).
Risk Parity for the Long Run: Building Portfolios Designed to Perform Across Economic Environments. Salient White Paper 2011-02.
Asness, Clifford, David Kabiller, and Michael Mendelson, (2010). Where the Wild Things Aren’t.
Institutional Investor (May).
17
Mainstreaming of Alternative Investments, (2012). McKinsey & Company, Financial Services Practice.
16
10
. Building on the improvements that these institutions are making to their core portfolios,
many innovative investors are starting to ask more questions about the value of
differentiated return streams. Market exposures in equity, credit, rates, and commodities
can often be harvested inexpensively in very liquid formats; so many institutions are
implementing these exposures directly. Alternative betas, like size, value, momentum, 18
and carry, can often be gathered easily with rules-based tools. Institutions are often willing
to pay a modest fee for implementation, but not the same high-cost combination of
management and incentive fees that most hedge funds demand.
Rather than paying for a
combination of these factors, many forward-thinking institutions are demanding “pure”
access to these non-market betas, frequently at 15% to 20% target volatility levels. Finally,
many institutions are raising the hurdle for hedge fund managers in their portfolios and
only choosing to pay management and incentive fees when a fund’s returns cannot be
easily explained by a combination of market beta and alternative beta. 19 We believe hedge
funds may provide another complementary return stream and bring more potential
balance to a portfolio, but only when the returns from skill are discernible, diversifying,
and robust.
We feel these innovative investors are embracing these alternative betas as a potentially
dependable and efficient way to diversify portfolios before starting down the path of
hunting for managers truly capable of generating “alpha” or skill-based returns.
(3)
Yield: Seek to Improve & Diversify Cash Flows
Low rates are typically a natural consequence of the breakdown in credit creation that
happens when households and banks reduce debt relative to income.
Moreover, we
believe central banks must hold rates low until government debt falls to a more
manageable level. 20 This kind of policy intervention may eventually lead to inflation, but
history suggests that short-term rates can remain near 0% for decades as economies
deleverage. 21,22
Rather than blindly stretching for yield, many leading institutions are working to improve
and diversify their potential cash flows while also prioritizing total return opportunities.
At
current valuations, we believe three kinds of assets appear to be attractive: (1) Master
Limited Partnerships, (2) high yield credit, and (3) emerging market sovereign debt.
Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) are publicly traded partnerships, typically backed
by steady income streams from energy infrastructure assets, which offer investors the
opportunity to invest for high total return while capturing yield. MLPs have historically
generated competitive total returns through a combination of high current yield and
growth in distributions, while also providing portfolio diversification and a hedge against
unexpected inflation. 23
High net worth and retail investors have historically dominated the MLP market due in
part to the tax complexities, but MLPs are now gaining traction among institutional
18
Croce, Roberto, (2013).
A Primer on Momentum. Salient White Paper 2012-03.
Ellis, Charles, (2012). Murder on the Orient Express: The Mystery of Underperformance.
Financial Analysts Journal, Volume 68, 13-19.
20
Reinhart, Carmen, Vincent Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, (2012). Debt Overhangs: Past and Present. NBER Working Paper 18015.
21
Koo, Richard, (2012).
The World in Balance Sheet Recession: Causes, Cures, and Politics. Real World Economics Review, Issue 58, 19-37.
22
Dalio, Ray, (2012). An In Depth Look at Deleveragings.
Bridgewater Associates White Paper.
23
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
19
11
. investors as a potentially more durable source of yield. As modern technology allows for
increases in energy production from North American shale basins, the supply of existing
infrastructure needed for gathering, processing, and transporting oil and gas is still
growing more slowly than the demand for new midstream infrastructure. 24 Thus, we
currently believe there is little potential downside to cash flows for midstream MLPs
despite changes in economic activity.
High Yield Credit offers a yield component above short term Treasury rates that is directly
related to a company’s credit quality, or default risk. Although high yield bond prices are
elevated today with yields near all-time lows, credit spreads to Treasuries are still priced
fairly and typically offer relatively attractive yields in the 5% to 6% range.
25 We believe high
yield may be a better way to take growth-oriented risk than equity in a deleveraging
period, since corporate balance sheets (excluding financials) are generally strong and
monetary policy continues to limit defaults by keeping capital markets open. It may not
offer the same total return opportunity as MLPs, but many institutions are using this as a
tool for diversifying their cash flows.
Emerging Market Sovereign Debt, denominated in local currency, offers longâ€term
investors an opportunity for attractive yield with potential upside from currency
appreciation. In both relative and absolute terms, we believe emerging markets sovereign
debt offers a potentially more compelling risk/return profile when compared to developed
market sovereign debt based upon higher economic growth rates, lower deficits, falling
inflation, better demographics, rich natural resources (particularly in Latin America), more
conservative monetary policies, and a reduction in dependence on external debt.
Despite
these potential advantages, many local emerging market issuers are trading at yield
concessions to their developed market counterparts. We anticipate a convergence of
emerging and developed market inflation rates coupled with continued improvements to
the fiscal picture of across emerging countries that we believe will lead to a convergence
of nominal interest rates, which has already been demonstrated by many dollardenominated issues that are actually trading through U.S. Treasuries.
26 This strategy seeks
to capitalize on currency devaluation in the developed world, a direct result of the policy
tools being employed to combat the slow and often painful effects of deleveraging.
(4)
Global Equity: Unconstrained with Risk Management > Style Boxes
Many institutional investors are exploring better ways to actively access the equity
markets with an emphasis on global, unconstrained stock picking. Rather than forcing
managers into traditional style boxes; there is evidence that unconstrained managers can
outperform by shifting between styles, regions, and market capitalizations at will. 27 In our
opinion, this kind of unconstrained and global orientation allows managers to actively
seek out value and growth opportunities while minimizing the home market bias that may
plague many portfolios allocated with a style box approach.
We are also seeing demand for better risk management across actively managed equity
portfolios.
Our own research suggests that risk-adjusted returns tend to fall during periods
of high and rising volatility, while risk-adjusted returns tend to rise during periods of low
24
Gardner, Ted, Greg Reid, Parag Sanghani, and Hollis Ghobrial (2012). Master Limited Partnerships. Salient White Paper 2012-04.
Marks, Howard and Sheldon Stone, (2013).
High Yield Bonds Today. Memo to Oaktree Clients.
26
Salient Capital Advisors, LLC. February 2013.
27
Pyne, Andrew, (2012).
Equity Investing: From Style Box to Global Unconstrained. PIMCO Featured Solution Series.
25
12
. and falling volatility. An approach that targets a specific risk band, raising volatility when it
gets too low and reducing volatility when it gets too high, may provide a better beta to
the equity market while seeking to capture the potential benefits of security selection.
(5)
Private Energy & Credit: Focus Illiquidity Risk Around Best Opportunities
The illiquidity premium is back and potentially available to an investors who is willing to
commit a portion of his or her portfolio to private investments. While the illiquidity
premium would normally shrink after several years of an economic recovery, sluggish
growth and an almost dogmatic preference for liquidity continues to create potential
buying opportunities for patient investors willing to deploy capital at typically lower entry
multiples (compared to private markets) and eventually exit at potentially higher multiples
(through initial public offerings or sales to strategic investors) after some sort of valuecreation or turnaround process. We believe the key ingredients are time,
manager/management skill, and the prevailing market conditions at entry and exit.
By parting with liquidity and taking a multi-year outlook on valuation trends, investment
themes, and strategies, we believe private investments offer the opportunity to be useful
for investors looking to boost their potential returns in a deleveraging environment.
Although current supply and demand dynamics are less than promising today in
secondary markets and traditional buyout and growth capital strategies, we believe
conditions are favorable in private credit and energy strategies where the supply of capital
is limited and demand for capital is growing.
Private credit typically offers cash flows and total return competitive with high yield, but
many strong managers have been able to deliver these results with more downside
protection than high yield by owning distressed credits backed by senior claims in the
capital structure.
Furthermore, deleveraging in the financial sector is creating
opportunities for private credit as banks around the developed world are being forced to
sell quality assets and raise liquidity to meet the new capital requirements set out under
Basel III. 28
Private energy and energy infrastructure typically offer strong prospects for high total
return, attractive cash flows, and growing demand from strategic investors. We believe
investors can potentially achieve attractive current yields and total returns by purchasing
interests in existing oil and gas companies, seeking to capture the revenue from
production over several years, and potentially exiting through strategic sales, in many
cases to become public MLPs.
28
KPMG, Basel 3 - Pressure is Building.
December 2010.
13
. References
Economics
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