VOL 3/iSSue 1 – SpRInG 2014
sToXX “shi Tuo”
The indian invesTor
sTrong balance sheeTs
low risk sTraTegy
. welcome
TO THe neW eDiTiOn
OF STOXX PuLSe
meeT sToXX
aT a conference
» May 8, 2014, Shanghai, china
STOXX launches the chinese version of
its name at an official ceremony.
» May 15, Sydney, australia
rahul Saito, regional director of north
asia, speaks at the investing in
responsibility conference hosted by
GTQ. he will be part of a panel titled:
“The case for eSG integration.”
» Jun. 4-5, amsterdam, netherlands
hartmut Graf, ceO, will be a panelist at
the inside eTfs europe conference. The
panel, held on Jun.
4, is titled: “The rise
of ‘Smart Beta’: does it Work, and how
do You use it in Portfolios?”
» Jun. 19, Hong kong
Konrad Sippel, global head of Business
development and executive director,
speaks at the fT asset management
Summit.
. from china we take you to india, a
country whose citizens are close to
electing a new government. We talked
to a fund manager at a leading asset
management company to give us a
better perspective on india’s eTf and
mutual fund landscape. anubhav
Srivastava, who manages 60 million uS
dollars for motilal Oswal asset
management, told us that indian investors
are ready to add a bigger global
component to their portfolios, which until
now are focused on indian fixed income,
indian equities and gold.
HaRTMuT GRaf
CeO, STOXX Limited
dear readers,
STOXX this month unveiled the chinese
version of its name: STOXX 势拓. The first
character “Shi” represents force, power
and momentum.
The second one “Tuo”
showcases the spirit of an innovator, a
pioneer and an explorer. as we have
expanded our commitment to Greater
china, we have felt the growing
importance of having a local version of
our name. STOXX 势拓 embodies our
spirit and values.
Our power of innovation
has helped us immensely on our journey
during the past 16 years.
We start this issue with an interview of
two people who were key in the process
of coming up with the chinese version of
our name. Their narratives offer glimpses
into the difficulty of such an exercise and
of course the sense of accomplishment
that comes with a job well done.
earlier this year, STOXX released a family
of indices that select companies based
on their altman Z-Scores. The STOXX
Strong Balance Sheet index family bring
to light darwin’s famous principle of
“survival of the fittest” by including only
those stocks that have the strongest
balance sheets.
We asked angelika eibl,
senior market development manager at
STOXX, to write a column to explain this
concept in more detail.
risk and volatility still continue to
confound and haunt investors. STOXX in
march licensed the eurO STOXX low
risk Weighted 100 index to State Street
Global advisors (SSga). We spoke with
matthew arnold, cfa, vice president at
SSga, to get his views on low risk
weighted strategies.
i hope you enjoy this issue.
for comments
and/or suggestions, please contact the
editor rajiv Sekhri at rajiv.sekhri@stoxx.com
regards,
hartmut Graf,
ceO, STOXX limited
. STOXX launcheS chineSe verSiOn Of iTS name
STOXX launcheS
chineSe verSiOn
Of iTS name
The beginning of
wisdom is To call
Things by Their
proper name.
confucius
STOXX ltd. this month launched the
chinese version of its name , a process
that has not only allowed us to deepen
our impact in one of the world’s biggest
and most important financial markets
but also to give thought to what the
business of indexing means in a country
and a language that is infinitely different
from english.
SHIRLEY LOW
STOXX Ltd.
The conversion of a name from one
language into another is a new creation
of the same identity. There has to be
melody and music that helps the name
enter the memories of those who speak
the language.
4
STOXX Pulse spoke to two people –
Shirley low and marianne friese - who
took on the task of finding an identity for
STOXX in chinese. Shirley low is head
of asia/Pacific for STOXX ltd.
marianne
friese is head of marianne friese
consulting Gmbh, a firm that helps
companies find chinese names. She has
helped nearly two dozen companies and
brands find chinese names, including
the world famous German party drink
Jägermeister.
. STOXX PuLSe – SPring 2014
SHIRLEY LOW
you came up wiTh The vision ThaT
sToXX needed an idenTiTy in chinese?
can you Tell us whaT you had in mind?
STOXX hired me in 2011 to set up its
asia team. and right at the start of my
career at STOXX, i knew the company
needed a meaningful version of its
name in chinese that symbolized
the company’s value and mission in
one of the world’s largest and
upcoming financial markets. also, i
wanted a name that would have simple
chinese characters that are easy for
people to recognize and remember.
i have seen a few foreign companies
that have entered Greater china with
such difficult characters that people
in china cannot recognize these
characters. These companies failed
to etch their brand and identity into
the memories of chinese people.
So that was definitely something
i wanted to avoid.
whaT were your ThoughTs regarding
whaT The chinese name of sToXX should
look like and sound like?
diverse team.
Therefore 势, with its
profound meaning, has a firm footing in
our chinese name.
With the first vocal of “ST”, a few
characters came to my mind. One of my
favorites was “Shi” 势, which signifies
momentum and power and embodies
the spirit of STOXX.
and whaT abouT The second characTer?
as a keen reader of the Sun Tze’s “art of
War”, i favored 势 - momentum - as Sun
Tze devoted one chapter in his masterful
book to Shi and it shows how important
this character (势) is. This word has a
deeper meaning if you look closer at the
different signs that it is made up of.
æ‰
– talent or human capital - is very
important to our company and our
values. We nurture and develop our
human capital as we believe that our
people will raise the company to a
different global level. 力 – effort –
signifies the passion to enter new
territories and the hard work and effort
needed to put together a global and
With the first character fixed, the second
character had to sound like an O.
“Tuo”
æ‹“ came immediately to my mind to
signify STOXX’s asia team as a pioneer in
the asia/Pacific region. as the first team
of STOXX in asia, we need to constantly
innovate to enter into this new market
successfully. if we do a more in-depth
analysis of tuo” æ‹“, æ‰ – again emphasizes
human capital and suggests that only if
we work together as a strong team will we
move 石 – rocks.
combined with the first character 势,
this gives us a strong momentum in
innovation and exploration, which is the
spirit of STOXX.
and with this strong spirit
and sense of innovation, we aim to bring
investors in this region many global and
local investment innovations in the future.
5
. STOXX launcheS chineSe verSiOn Of iTS name
6
. 专
ä¸
æ•°
STOXX Pulse – sPring 2014
å°†
hence, The mosT
imporTanT aspecT in
creaTing a chinese
name for sToXX was
To find a name ThaT
reflecTs The spiriT and
mission of The company
欧
带
marianne friese
how did you find ThaT balance?
势
æ‹“
MaRIannE fRIESE
Marianne Friese Consulting
so going from The names of people
To naming companies? is iT a similar
eXercise?
MaRIannE fRIESE
whaT is so differenT abouT a name in
chinese raTher Than a name in say
english or german?
it is like earth and sky, the difference. in
english you have names like Peter, Janet.
But in chinese there are no names like
that. You have to choose characters,
which convey the meaning of a word
– such as heaven, beauty or water – to
create a name. most given names in
chinese have one or two characters
and family names generally have one
character.
So, for example, it is hard for a chinese
person to comprehend that there are
thousands of Janets in this world.
let me explain with the name of STOXX.
in a chinese context, STOXX is an
artificial name.
The sound of the word
stock or stocks does not apply or have
meaning in chinese. hence, the most
important aspect in creating a chinese
name for STOXX was to find a name that
reflects the spirit and mission of the
company and at the same time this spirit
and mission can be conveyed by chinese
characters that are meaningful, resonant
and melodious. and each character is
pronounced differently in different parts
of china.
hence the written name
becomes critical because Simplified
chinese, the written form, is the uniform
written language of the country.
So to find a name for STOXX, which
was done by our team in china, we had
to find in those 20,000 or so characters
a name that was not too obvious, that
was unique but also simple enough to
be memorable. To find a good balance
between these parameters is the hardest
part of the task.
What we did at first was to look at the
competitive environment, who the players
were in this sector in china, whether they
use dual names etc. Such a check gives
you an idea of what characters to avoid
and also gives you an understanding of
what kind of business environment exists
for the company identity-wise in china.
after this exercise we came up with a list
of about 100 names.
Then we clustered the names into groups
of names that showed similarities.
and
from these clusters we came up with a
final list of about four names. from the
20,000 characters to the list of 100 to
the final two, the process involved talking
to men, women, bankers, writers, chinese
literature experts, chinese people living in
china, hong Kong and abroad, and many
others to get their input and opinion on
names. finally, it was mission critical that
the name can still be registered in the
respective categories.
hence, we did quite
extensive pre-checks on this matter
before submitting any suggestions.
in the end, STOXX was pleased with the
final list of four we suggested. STOXX was
very actively involved in the process by
checking with key contacts in china on
their preferences regarding the names we
suggested. Of course, STOXX was with us
all the way, offering its input and ideas to
the search for the name.
creating a
chinese name is a great project to deliver
– it takes experience and smarts from our
end and good cooperation and trust from
the client’s side.«
7
. The POrTfOliO Of an indian inveSTOr
The
POrTfOliO
Of an
indian
inveSTOr
anuBHaV SRIVaSTaVa
Motilal Oswal
8
. STOXX PuLSe – SPring 2014
corpus needs to diversify and get into a much
higher return than what we have right now.
Therefore, there continues to be a lot of
interest in middle- and low-level residential
real estate and gold bullion – perceived
inflation hedges.
“Green ShOOTS” Seen
in TermS Of indian
inveSTOrS diverSifYinG
GlOBallY
as the world's largest democracy elects a new
government, STOXX Pulse asked a fund
manager with a leading asset management
company in india to offer his perspective on
indian investors and talk about the eTf and
mutual fund landscape in india.
anubhav Srivastava is senior vice president
and fund manager, head of institutions and
Product development, at motilal Oswal asset
management, where he manages 60 million
uS dollars in equities, fixed income and
commodities. Srivastava has worked at motilal
Oswal since October, 2010. Before that he was
head of Quantitative finance at Syntel inc. he
has a postgraduate diploma in management
from the indian institute of management,
ahemdabad and a master’s of Science in
Quantitative finance from the university of
Westminster.
motilal Oswal is one of india’s leading asset
management companies.
it is a subsidiary
of motilal Oswal Securities ltd.
whaT do indian invesTors lack in Their
porTfolios?
if you look at a classic indian investor portfolio,
there is a massive concentration of indian
fixed income, indian equities and then gold.
now a pure concentration in indian equity and
fixed income is actually a bit of a problem
because given the volatile times we are in,
especially during the last five years, what
happened was that fixed income and equity
tended to get highly correlated. and therefore,
fixed income gets subjected to the kind of
drawdown that equities are subjected to.
That means the entire portfolio sinks.
now let us put that in the perspective of
retirement planning or other financial
objectives. What we see is that coupled with
10% ongoing inflation there is a huge problem
both in terms of risk and in terms of return.
now the rule of thumb is that if 100 uS dollars
goes down 20% to $80, it requires a 25%
return to bring it back up.
But those returns
are not what we have seen in the markets
which have, by and large, been flat point-topoint in the past five to six years.
and therefore investors have not been able to
plan for retirement. fixed income yields have
been running 8.5% to 9%, still below inflation.
When you add to that the cost of investing,
we’re talking about a required return rate close
to 14%. investors are not getting a return of
14% a year.
instead, money is depreciating in
real value. in the long run, what we are going
to see is that people will not be able to plan
their retirements. and this is more so the case
with some of the pension funds that run in
the country because they have just domestic
equity and debt investment.
now on the pension and insurance side, while
there is not such a big asset liability
mismatch, but there are still a couple of
issues that come up.
first, is that many of
these products which are heavily loaded with
commission payout right up front, but you are
starting out with a smaller corpus. ultimately,
the returns are going to come from that
corpus. Secondly, another five years down the
line, this population dynamic of a very young
workforce is going to flip.
it has already been
happening over the past 10 years and it is
going to be a big problem. and therefore that
you Talk abouT a 14% reTurn so ThaT
people can jusT abouT break even on
Their invesTmenTs? is ThaT even
possible?
it requires equity. if you look at a pure
domestic investment, probably it is not.
long-term equity growth rates in india are
12% to 13%.
depending on one’s selected timescale, if you
buy and hold the equity for 10 years you
might get something like that.
The only way
to do this is to diversify internationally. and, of
course, you have to select your investments
appropriately. and what we see is that
internationally, one of the benefits that result
is that if the rupee depreciates then we get a
better return.
So it defrays the cost of all these
imported parts of the cPi, or the wholesale
price index. So it provides a little
bit of a hedge along with the returns in
companies that are global leaders, which still
have cash on their balance sheets and have
a fair amount of growth going on. and it need
not just be the tech sector, which is the first
thing that comes to mind.
it is not just about
Google, apple etc. but also about daimler,
BmW, some of the other european companies
which are quite a good investment right now.
are invesTors, muTual funds and oTher
pension funds in india willing To
diversify aT This sTage ?
as with all emerging markets, what tends to
happen is that there is resistance among
resident fund managers to go into the
unknown. So you will see that the largest
funds in india are broad equity funds, actively
managed.
having said that there is a
european fund being filed, but that is from
the active side. also, a whole bunch of uS
funds are available.
my point is that any diversification strategy will
need to look at international markets. investors
are willing to, while insurance and pension
managers have regulatory challenges.
9
.
any diversificaTion
sTraTegy will need To
look aT inTernaTional
markeTs.
anubhav srivasTava
Whilst there is resistance, i see some green
shoots in terms of people looking at
diversifying globally. i think one of the
challenges is that there are not enough
products available in the indian market. You
have hang Seng with a correlation of maybe
0.5 to the indian markets. The correlations to
the nasdaq tend to be even lower.
But there is
a whole other section, say europe or emerging
markets, that is missing. and of the things we
do need to take cognizance of is that a lot of
these things will provide returns at different
points unless there is a global economic
meltdown of the 2008 variety. So choices
that will help indian investors diversify are
not available.
can you give some color on The
regulaTory environmenT for eTfs and
muTual funds in india? also, is iT True
ThaT you can only offer an eTf in india
ThaT is based on an indeX ThaT is parT
of an eXchange, such as The daX,
Hang Seng or naSdaq?
regulations in india are still evolving.
Our
regulator SeBi is working very hard to
globalize indian regulations as well as get
some best practices from around the world.
With respect to the issue that you cannot
make an eTf in india based on non-exchange
indices – to an extent that is true but it is not
entirely true because our first eTf was a
smart-beta product loosely based on the
nifty. We also have approval for a cnX
equal-weight index.
The other issue may be that the government
is a little hesitant to allow for large limits in
terms of foreign investment via the mutual
fund and eTf route in india as it might have
an adverse impact on account deficits. But
that is speculation because there is no formal
policy to substantiate that statement.
in terms of what the regulators will approve,
because they have so few applications,
regulatory appetite for these kinds of
international products remains to be seen.
But they will concretize regulations going
forward.
indian equity eTfs are still very small
compared to gold eTf products that are out
there in the indian market. and the breadth
GDP GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
4.7%
of products that are available in the indian
market is still limited.
from a regulatory perspective, typically we are
not allowed to do say leveraged products/
inverse products. and the commodities side
of the spectrum is regulated by the fmc
which has not approved anything other than
gold as of yet for eTf investment.
There are regulations right now that prevent
large institutional investors from coming into
the eTf market.
Just recently regulators
issued a draft guideline that says that given
certain terms and conditions insurance
companies can invest into eTfs. This is a
first step. Globally a large chunk of eTf
investments are either 401K plans or they
are largely institutional affairs, unlike india.
is There also a hesiTaTion from The side
of muTual fund companies in india To
creaTe an eTf because There is no
demand and noT much of a passive
invesTing scenario in The counTry?
i think that is more to do with the nature of
mutual fund companies.
if you look at the
BIGGEST CONCERN FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH
1.7%
1.9%
2.6%
12%
6.2%
23.1%
National election results
32.4%
14.9%
Lack of business and
consumer conï¬dence
Below 4%
Domestic inflation and Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) policy action
Between 4% and 5%
Between 5% and 6%
58.5%
Between 6% and 7%
Greater than 7%
Domestic politics and corruption
Global liquidity constraints
20.4%
21.6%
FX currency risk and
credit rating downgrade
Global oil prices
Source: Indian Association of Investment Professionals’ Annual Forecast Survey for ï¬scal year 2015. The survey had 431 participants from the country’s investment and ï¬nancial sector.
10
. STOXX PuLSe – SPring 2014
products that will allow them to get into the
low volatility space and get a reasonable
return by mixing asset classes.
global scenario, a lot of asset management
and mutual fund companies have clearly
decided which side they want to be on.
i think india is a bit behind on the curve, but
we still see a lot of mutual fund companies
that have one or two eTfs. and going forward,
as the regulations become clearer and as
demand picks up because of how the
economy and the financial markets have
been, i expect there to be a larger uptake/
issuance of eTfs.
and not just basic eTfs, but you will see
sectoral eTfs in a big way. We will also get
into smart-beta type products though there
could be some initiative coming straight from
the exchanges and the index providers for
developing these.
What we have seen is that there is a big
demand coming in from the retail and the
middle segment of the market for asset
allocation products. So independent financial
advisors, private wealth management outfits
as well as pure retail customers are looking at
where do you see gdp growTh in india
in 2014 and whaT impacT will The may
general elecTion have on The counTry?
in addiTion, can you also Talk abouT
The huge amounT of household savings
in india?
in my view we are looking at 4.5% to 4.8%
GdP growth in 2014, and, on the higher side
maybe 5% to 5.3%.
regarding household savings, there is about
400 billion uS dollars on the lower side in the
country, which is purely put into bank deposits
and is depreciating given that interest rates
lag inflation.
Superimpose this with the fact
that we have moved from a defined benefit
pension scheme to a defined contribution
pension scheme, this money has to move into
more productive investments rather than
simple and non-transparent bond
investments. Those people who are actually
at the forefront of helping manage this will
be the asset management companies. right
now there is a regulation that says that
insurance companies and pension funds have
to manage their own assets.
The view that is
out there, is that insurance and pension funds
should be doing what they do i.e. manage risk,
whereas the asset management should be
outsource to asset management companies
and also to multiple managers which tends to
diversify fund manager risk, house risk as well
as get a whole new fresh set of ideas.
With regard to the political scenario, yes it
tends to be a worry but the kind of volatility
we see now is normal given the elections and
the budget. having said that, the country has
identified what the problem areas are, such
as infrastructure, governance.
The new
government might take a little while, but the
priorities for the new government are all set.
furthermore, in terms of a mandate, whether
somebody is going to get a clear mandate or
not, i would go with the latter. if the mandates
are not clear that may prove to be a slight
hindrance but, on the other hand, if everybody
gets on board and does their job well, we
could get 80% of the problems sorted and
our growth rates would see a fair amount of
acceleration in the coming years.
valuations today are reasonable and we are
looking at a market that has been under
bought. Therefore, the next two to three years
might just be good ones for indian markets.
«
11
.
STOcK marKeT darWiniSm
STOcK
marKeT
darWiniSm
12
. STOXX PuLSe – SPring 2014
STOXX STrOnG Balance
SheeT indiceS: a familY
ThaT SelecTS The
financiallY fiTTeST
cOmPanieS
STOXX ltd. launched an index family
earlier in 2014 that selects companies
based on their altman Z-Score. STOXX
Pulse asked angelika eibl, senior market
development manager at STOXX, to write
a commentary about this index family
and what it offers investors.
history holds plenty of examples of
successful species that became extinct
after failing to adapt to significant
changes in their environment. The dodo,
for instance, was a friendly flightless bird
about three feet tall that was native to
mauritius.
after thousands of years of
successfully populating a place where
he had no natural enemies, the dodo
was extinct a mere 60 years after the first
dutch ship reached the island. Being
fearless and wingless, the bird wasn’t
exactly well-equipped to survive the
arrival of hungry sailors.
anGELIka EIBL
STOXX Ltd.
iT is noT The sTrongesT
or The mosT inTelligenT
who will survive buT
Those who can besT
manage change.
charles darwin
Similarly, some companies are clearly
better positioned than others to
successfully adapt to an ever-changing
market environment. high debt levels
don’t bode well in the mid and long term,
for instance.
let’s look at the example of arcandor,
which prior to its bankruptcy owned
Germany’s iconic department store chain
Karstadt.
in 2006, arcandor raised a
reported 4.5 billion euros through the sale
and leaseback of the majority of its
properties. commonly, the idea behind a
sales and leaseback is to free up cash
from low yielding real estate and invest it
at a positive spread into the higher
yielding operating business. Yet arcandor
did the opposite, fully financing the
majority of its department stores at
rapidly increasing rates that soon steeply
exceeded the firm’s operating margin.
By
2008, rents amounted to 15% to 20% of
revenue in several major cities1, or a
multiple of the single-digit margins that
are common in Germany’s fiercely
competitive retail market. By december
2008, its total liabilities exceeded its
market cap by over 12 billion euros, or
2,300%. in June 2009, arcandor filed for
bankruptcy protection after its request for
loan guarantees was rejected by the
German government.
arcandor’s
management made the case that the
firm had become a hapless casualty of
the credit crunch and the economic
contraction, both of which doubtlessly
accelerated the firm’s downfall. Yet in
hindsight, the firm’s inapt, possibly
reckless financial engineering had been
bound to sooner or later cause serious
trouble.
Starting from the premise that there
should be features that allow investors to
systematically and quantitatively discern
among companies that are well-placed
to survive ever-changing markets versus
companies in danger of perishing,
Professor edward i. altman from new
York university’s Stern School of Business
performed extensive research in the late
1960s2.
in his pioneering work, he used
the technique of linear discriminant
analysis to develop a simple yet powerful
metric which would gauge a stock’s
near- and mid-term default risk using
readily available data from corporate
balance sheets and income statements.
1 Source: "club der millionäre", der Spiegel, 25/2009
2 "financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the Prediction of corporate Bankruptcy”, altman (1968)
13
. STOcK marKeT darWiniSm
This metric is called the altman Z-Score.
Popular and widely used among
practitioners, the score measures the
financial health of a company using the
weighted sum of five financial ratios
relating to liquidity, profitability, market
return, debt and revenues
Z-Score=1.2X1+1.4X2+3.3X3+0.6X4+1.0X5
where
X1 = working capital/total assets
X2 = retained earnings/total assets
X3 = earnings before interest and tax/
total assets
X4 = market value of equity/book value
of debt
X5 = sales/total assets
3
4
5
6
altman determined that companies
with Z-Scores of 3.0 and higher are very
likely to stay in business over a two-year
time horizon, whereas companies with
Z-Scores of 1.8 and smaller have
significant default risk over the same
period.3 in between these two values,
the lines are blurred and a reliable
classification cannot be made.
The model of the Z-Score was originally
designed only for manufacturing
companies and was later extended to
all industries ex financials. That’s because
altman determined through quantitative
research in the 1960s what the world
learned from the media post-2007:
financial firms’ reporting is prone to
hiding meaningful information, such
as off-balance sheet activities and
refinancing risks. as a result, accounting-
based metrics such as the Z-Score are
less reliable, even meaningless when
applied to financials.
altman’s research found the Z-Score to
correctly predict bankruptcies of nonfinancials two years before the event in
72% of cases, with an “all-clear” falsely
being given in 6% of cases (type ii error).
later tests have found the model to even
be 80% to 94%4 correct in predicting
bankruptcy ahead of time. Over time,
researchers have further found that the
Z-Score not only predicts distress with
a high degree of accuracy but is also a
useful tool in gauging the likelihood of
outperformance of a given stock5.
carter
and hofer for instance investigated a
variety of common performance metrics
and found the Z-Score to provide the
greatest relative information about the
market-adjusted return to shareholders6.
for reference: as of June 2008, the ill-fated German retailer arcandor had an altman Z Score of -0.1 (Source: Bloomberg)
“Prediction of corporate Bankruptcy from 2008 Through 2011”, li (2012)
“a Study of the efficacy of altman’s Z To Predict Bankruptcy of Specialty retail firms doing Business in contemporary Times”, hayes et al. (2010)
“measuring organizational performance: metrics for entrepreneurship and strategic management research”, carton, hofer (2006)
14
. STOXX PuLSe – SPring 2014
Broad, liquid representation of a given
market as evidenced by high
correlation and low tracking error to the
underlying base index
Outperformance through higher return
as well as reduced volatility
Downside protection through reduced
maximum drawdown
Going back to our analogy from
evolutionary theory, one can say: a
species that due to its high degree
of adaptability is particularly likely to
persist is likely to do better than other
species even in the absence of major
environmental changes. This is
evolutionary theory at its best. We
have found that what holds true in
nature applies equally well to the stock
market. Through the STOXX Strong
Balance Sheet index family, we offer
our clients an index methodology that
filters out any stocks that are not suited
for survival.
The concept is as straightforward as
it is powerful: for a given universe, the
pertinent STOXX Strong Balance Sheet
index contains only stocks with a threeyear track record of Z-Scores of 3.5 and
higher.
financial firms are excluded from
the universe. further, stocks must pass
an adaptive liquidity screen (95% of the
most liquid stocks in a universe qualify)
that has a fixed, region-specific floor of
typically around the local currency
equivalent of 5 million uS dollars in
average daily trading volume. There are
two index versions: one is weighted by
free-float market cap subject to a 10%
cap at the component level.
The second
version is equally weighted. The index is
reviewed annually in September and
rebalanced quarterly.
The chart and table shows the key figures
and return of the STOXX Global Strong
Balance Sheet index versus its
benchmark, the STOXX Global 1800.
furthermore, a factor analysis reveals
excess returns are most strongly driven
by the overweighting of companies with
little leverage. This finding quantitatively
confirms the intuition that if there is one
thing that limits a company’s flexibility
to adapt to changes in the market and
makes it prone to distress, that is high
levels of debt.
True to its premise, the STOXX Strong
Balance Sheet index family succeeds
in achieving the following:
in conclusion, we offer to our clients an
index family that successfully adopts
darwin’s famous principle of the “survival
of the fittest” by excluding all but those
stocks with the strongest balance sheets
as measured by their respective Z-Scores.
empirically, such stocks are more adaptive
to ever-changing markets, create excess
return and mitigate downside risk.
Since
the STOXX Strong Balance Sheet index
family is broadly diversified and thus
representative of the underlying market, it
is ideally suited to replace traditional ex
financial indices and strategies. in
addition, the index family can be used to
derive long only, “130-30” or market
neutral satellite strategies to produce
excess return.«
STOXX GLOBaL STROnG BaLancE SHEET InDEX OuTpERfORMS BEncHMaRk
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
Sep. 2007
Sep.
2008
Sep. 2009
Sep. 2010
Sep.
2011
STOXX Global Strong Balance Sheet
Sep. 2012
Sep. 2013
STOXX Global 1800
STOXX Global Strong
Balance Sheet
# positions
ff market cap
in uSd tn
Total no.
of defaults
return, annualized
volatility, annualized
maximum drawdown
STOXX Global 1800
376
1800
9.9
0
7.0%
17.8%
-47.7%
32.9
11 1
2.8%
20.1%
-58.2%
numbers computed using STOXX gross returns in uSd over period from Sep. 24, 2007 to feb. 28, 2014 unless
labelled otherwise
1 General motors corp., arcandor aG, landsbanki islands hf., Glitnir banki hf., Kaupthing Bunadarbanki hf.,
Washington mutual inc., General Growth Properties inc., lehman Brothers holdings inc., Japan airlines corp.,
SinO-fOreST, elpida memory inc.
15
.
dOWnSide PrOTecTiOn
dOWnSide
Pr TecTiOn
STOXX Pulse spoke with matthew arnold,
cfa, vice president at SSga and a senior
eTf strategist within SPdr eTf Strategy
& consulting Group. We asked him about
low risk weighted strategies in particular
and the broader realm of low volatility
investing.
MaTTHEW aRnOLD
SSgA
Prior to joining SSga in 2009, arnold
worked at fortis investments (previously
aBn amrO asset management). he has
worked in the financial services industry
since 1997 and holds a Bachelor’s of
commerce and post-graduate diploma
in commerce in finance from the
university of Otago in new Zealand.
why do invesTors use risk-weighTed
sTraTegies?
inveSTOrS Of all
STriPeS SeeK lOW riSK,
lOW vOlaTiliTY
inveSTmenT STraTeGieS
STOXX ltd. in march licensed the eurO
STOXX low risk weighted 100 index to
State Street Global advisors (SSga) for
an eTf.
The index selects those 100
stocks in the eurO STOXX index which
showed the lowest volatility over the past
year, thus offering eurozone exposure
with the least possible portfolio volatility.
16
We think there are a number of reasons
why an increasing number of investors
use risk-weighted or low volatility equity
strategies within their portfolios. firstly,
with two very painful equity bear markets
since 2000, investors of all types – from
retail ‘mom and pops’ through to the
most sophisticated pension funds – have
been looking for fully invested strategies
that offer the prospect of some downside
protection. most low volatility strategies
have, historically at least, experienced
lower drawdowns than the broad, capweighted indices that are commonplace
in the industry today.
and, as the name suggests, they have
also experienced lower price volatility
than broad market indices.
Secondly,
there is an increasing body of evidence
that lower volatility stocks have in fact
outperformed higher volatility stocks over
the long term. So some investors have
increased their allocations to low volatility
stocks with the aim of outperforming the
broad market over time. While it remains
to be seen whether this “anomaly”
continues, we think demand will grow
given the favorable drawdown and risk
characteristics of low volatility or riskweighted strategies.
why do you Think using an alTernaTive
weighTing sTraTegy – such as weighTing
componenTs on Their level of risk
– makes sense?
We think alternatively weighted equity
strategies are appropriate for a range of
investors.
income-oriented investors, for
example, might benefit from strategies
which weight stocks based on dividend
yield rather than market cap, while private
investors and pension funds might find
the reduced absolute risk of low volatility
approaches attractive in today’s
environment. ultimately, developments
within the beta management world are
allowing investors to build portfolios that
more closely align with their investment
goals. This can only be a good thing.
whaT are The mosT imporTanT
ingredienTs a risk-weighTed indeX
should have? and, in your opinion,
do indeX providers offers riskweighTed indices ThaT offer invesTors
whaT They are looking for?
.
STOXX PuLSe – SPring 2014
as one of the world’s largest institutional
investment managers, with passive equity
assets exceeding 1 trillion uS dollars, we
think index construction is a vitally
important element of beta management.
as the majority of SPdr eTfs are passive
vehicles, selecting the right index to track
is a key part of building a successful eTf.
One of the great things about eTfs is
their inherent transparency, so where
possible, we think index providers should
be equally transparent in the methodology
behind their indices. in the case of riskweighted or low volatility indices we were
attracted to relative simplicity of the
eurO STOXX low risk Weighted 100
index - where stocks are weighted
based on trailing 12-month price
volatility alone - and thought it
particularly suitable for a benchmark
for a SPdr eTf providing exposure to
low volatility eurozone stocks. There are
also indices which attempt to provide
exposure to a similar beta, but do so
through building a minimum variance
portfolio subject to various constraints
(such as maximum and minimum
sector weights). This is also a valid
approach, and may be more
appropriate for some investors, but
ultimately we felt the straightforward
and easy to understand approach of
the STOXX index provided investors
with a pure play on the least volatile
stocks within the eurozone.
do you Think invesTor inTeresT in low
risk, low volaTiliTy, and minimum
variance sTraTegies rose as a resulT
of The financial crisis? why or why
noT? also, do you Think invesTor
inTeresT in such sTraTegies is here To
sTay, or is This jusT a passing phase?
EuRO STOXX LOW RISk WEIGHTED 100 OffERS a BETTER RISk-RETuRn pROfILE
THan BEncHMaRk
250
200
150
100
50
0
dec.
03
aug. 05
apr. 07
dec.
08
eurO STOXX low risk Weighted 100
aug. 10
apr. 12
dec.
13
eurO STOXX
EuRO STOXX
Low Risk Weighted 100
Performance (annualized) 1
volatility (annualized)
maximum drawdown
Sharpe ratio 2
EuRO STOXX
5.8%
14.8%
53.2%
0.35
2.8%
21.0%
61.8%
0.16
1 STOXX daily data for eur Price return indices from mar. 19, 2001 to apr. 30, 2014.
Key figures have been
calculated as annualized figures
2 eOnia used as risk-free asset in calculation of Sharpe ratio
There is no doubt that interest has grown
due to the experience of the last 15 years
or so. The recent global financial crisis
was particularly painful for equity oriented
investors as was the tech and telecom
crash of the early 2000s. So it is natural
that there is increased interest in
strategies that offer the prospect of
reduced drawdowns and lower volatility.
With pension funds in “de-risking” mode
in much of the world, any strategy that
can help reduce risk is likely to be of
interest.
as to whether this is a passing
phase or not, we actually think low
volatility strategies are here to stay.
undoubtedly demand will wax and wane
depending on market conditions, but the
desirable characteristics of a low volatility
approach seem likely to appeal to a range
of investors now and into the future.
any oTher issues you may wanT To
discuss abouT low volaTiliTy or low
risk weighTed sTraTegies?
as with most things investment-related,
we believe investors should conduct
thorough due diligence before adopting
a low volatility or risk-weighted approach.
While the evidence points to a low
volatility premium in many markets,
there is certainly no guarantee that this
will persist into the future. Before
adopting an approach that targets low
volatility stocks, investors should identify
what it is they are trying to do. are they
trying to outperform the broad market
over time, or are they trying to alter the
risk characteristics of their portfolio? if it
is the former, they should be prepared to
give the strategy some time.
low volatility
stocks tend to be of higher quality than
high volatility stocks, so almost by
definition any strategy that targets these
types of stocks will tend to underperform
in strong, cyclical market rallies like we
saw in 2013. also, low volatility strategies
tend to be fairly concentrated in certain
sectors, so again, investors should be
comfortable with the bets they are taking.
While increasing in popularity, it should
also be noted that low volatility strategies
are still a little unconventional, so
investors should ensure full buy-in
from their investment committees or
end clients.«
17
. feaTured indiceS
FeATureD
inDiCeS
52-WEEk
pERfORMancE
19.2%
YEaR-TO-DaTE
pERfORMancE
0.8%
THREE-YEaR
pERfORMancE
33.6%
STOXX Global 1800 minimum variance
STOXX Global 1800 minimum variance unconstrained
STOXX Global Select dividend 100
STOXX Global maximum dividend 40*
11.5%
9.4%
15.3%
24.2%
3.8%
4.4%
5.3%
5.3%
42.1%
41.0%
na
17.8%
STOXX Europe 600
26.7%
2.6%
26.7%
STOXX europe 600 minimum variance
STOXX europe 600 minimum variance unconstrained
STOXX europe Select dividend 30*
STOXX europe maximum dividend 40
STOXX europe 600 equal Weight
STOXX europe low risk Weighted 100
17.7%
20.0%
24.8%
33.3%
32.2%
20.1%
2.5%
4.8%
4.2%
5.0%
4.1%
3.2%
32.1%
32.5%
9.9%
33.2%
28.6%
39.5%
EuRO STOXX 50
35.0%
3.1%
17.0%
eurO STOXX minimum variance
eurO STOXX minimum variance unconstrained
eurO STOXX Select dividend 30
eurO STOXX 50 equal Weight
eurO STOXX 50 low risk Weighted
18.6%
16.9%
36.4%
38.0%
34.0%
3.9%
2.9%
7.5%
3.6%
3.0%
24.7%
34.7%
11.7%
16.3%
18.6%
STOXX Global 1800
STOXX asia/pacific 600
4.5%
-2.7%
17.1%
STOXX asia/Pacific 600 minimum variance
STOXX asia/Pacific 600 minimum variance unconstrained
STOXX asia/Pacific Select dividend 30*
STOXX asia/ Pacific maximum dividend 40*
STOXX aSean-five Select dividend
STOXX east asia 80
-1.4%
0.4%
2.0%
15.3%
-1.9%
8.8%
1.0%
3.4%
5.8%
8.6%
3.3%
-1.7%
25.3%
25.9%
34.5%
26.9%
25.1%
15.1%
STOXX china a 50
-8.9%
-5.4%
-21.3%
STOXX china a 50 equal Weight
-9.5%
-6.5%
-25.1%
1.1%
6.9%
19.3%
-4.0%
-7.7%
7.1%
7.0%
6.3%
17.4%
STOXX australia 150
STOXX australia 150 minimum variance
STOXX australia 150 minimum variance unconstrained
18
. STOXX PuLSe – SPring 2014
52-WEEk
pERfORMancE
STOXX north america 600
YEaR-TO-DaTE
pERfORMancE
THREE-YEaR
pERfORMancE
20.0%
1.0%
43.0%
STOXX north america 600 minimum variance
STOXX north america 600 minimum variance unconstrained
STOXX north america maximum dividend 40*
STOXX north america Select dividend 40*
15.1%
12.2%
12.3%
12.8%
4.0%
3.9%
5.2%
5.2%
49.2%
53.0%
48.8%
36.3%
STOXX uSa 900
21.0%
0.8%
46.5%
STOXX uSa 900 minimum variance
STOXX uSa 900 minimum variance unconstrained
14.0%
10.3%
2.3%
4.4%
44.7%
56.1%
STOXX canada 240
10.4%
3.4%
-1.6%
8.5%
7.7%
1.5%
1.9%
16.1%
24.9%
STOXX canada 240 minimum variance
STOXX canada 240 minimum variance unconstrained
all indices are in uSd Gross return versions, except the ones marked with *, which are in uSd net return versions
Source: STOXX data as of apr. 9, 2014
19
. cOnTacTS
VOL 3/iSSue 1 – SpRInG 2014
Printed in may 2014
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