THE REAL
ECONOMY
MARCH 2016 I VOLUME 15
FEAR A SLOWDOWN?
HERE’S WHY RECESSION FEARS ARE OVERBLOWN
NEAR-TERM RECESSION FEARS ARE
OVERBLOWN, BUT HERE ARE THE SEEDS
OF THE NEXT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN
DIMINISHING OPPORTUNITIES AMID
EXCESS CAPITAL TO DRIVE REAL ESTATE
DEAL FLOW IN 2016
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK Q&A
. THOUGHT LEADERS
Our thought leaders are professionals with years of experience in their
fields who strive to help you and your business succeed. Thought leaders
who have contributed content to this issue include:
Joe Brusuelas is the chief economist for RSM US LLP. Brusuelas has 20 years of experience analyzing
U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S.
consumer.
As co-founder of the award-winning Bloomberg Economics Brief, Brusuelas was named one
of the 26 economists to follow by the Huffington Post. He is a graduate of the University of Southern
California and San Diego State University.
Rick Edelheit is the national real estate leader for RSM US LLP. He oversees all activities across a
broad array of services, including assurance, tax, transactional due diligence, lease consulting, financial
reporting outsourcing, cost segregation and other consulting services.
Tom Green is the assurance lead of the national real estate practice at RSM US LLP.
He is the regional
leader of the Great Lakes real estate practice and the practice lead for real estate private equity and
opportunity funds. Green is the lead partner for several of the firm’s largest real estate clients. He
specializes in audits of large multi-investment real estate portfolio companies and the consolidation and
fair value reporting issues related to those concerns.
2 | MARCH 2016
.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Fear a slowdown? Here’s why recession fears are overblown
4
Near-term recession fears are overblown, but here are the
seeds of the next economic downturn
6
Diminishing opportunities amid excess capital to drive real estate
deal flow in 2016
8
2016 Real estate outlook Q & A
RSM Industry coverage
10
11
This publication represents the views of the author(s), and does not necessarily represent the views of RSM.
This publication does not constitute professional advice.
RSM | TH E RE A L ECO N O MY | 3
. FEAR A SLOWDOWN? HERE’S WHY
RECESSION FEARS ARE OVERBLOWN
Economic growth slowed in the final quarter of the year,
which coincided with significant volatility across global
asset markets and further declines in the price of oil and
commodities. The combination of slower U.S. growth and
declining oil prices has resulted in growing concerns that
the economy may be teetering on the brink of a recession.
In our estimation, fears of a recession are overblown.
The U.S. economy is experiencing a growth scare linked
to a mild inventory correction and sagging global demand
rather than facing a significant probability that the current
business cycle will come to a premature end.
Economic
recessions do not evolve slowly. As evidence of slowing
demand appears, economies tend to fall off a cliff as
firms abruptly curtail fixed business investment, reduce
inventories and slow hiring.
Our preferred recession probability model, the Atlanta
Federal Reserve’s gross domestic product-based
recession indicator index, implies about a 10 percent
probability of a recession. For this indicator, which relies
on real-time fundamental economic data, values above
50 imply data are more consistent with a recession than
economic expansion, while values above 67 indicate the
economy has slipped into recession.
Given the sharp
increase in volatility in global asset markets, somewhat
weaker than anticipated economic data in December and
tighter financial conditions, we believe that the model will
yield a recession probability closer to 20 percent once we
get final economic data for the first quarter of 2016.
MIDDLE MARKET INSIGHT:
This finding comports nicely with our recent RSM Middle
Market Leadership survey, which points toward growth
in earnings and revenues and, perhaps more importantly,
plans to increase capital expenditures over the next
six months. This reflects a fairly healthy real economy
outside of the energy and mining industries.
While recession models using the Treasury yield curve
or initial jobless claims data suggest slightly higher
probabilities of economic contraction, our view is that
seasonal noise in first time claims data and the distortion
in the yield curve caused by the long period of unorthodox
policies conducted by the Federal Reserve falsely inflates
chances of recession at this time.
Contrary to popular belief, a recession is not simply two
consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. Rather,
it is a significant decline in real gross domestic product, real
income, employment, industrial production and wholesaleretail sales.
A look at the past six recessions shows three
exogenous price shocks, one linked to rising oil prices and a
domestic policy shock, one due to an inventory correction
linked to the tech bubble, and a third related to the “Great
Recession” in the wake of the collapse of the housing
bubble. All three triggered significant declines in growth,
income, employment and sales.
Recession causes
Recessions
Peak to trough
(months)
Proximate cause
November 1973-March 1975
16
Exogenous oil shock (rising prices)
January 1980-July 1980
6
Endogenous policy shift (rates) and exogenous oil shock
July 1981-November 1982
16
Exogenous oil shock (rising prices)
July 1990-March 1991
8
Exogenous oil shock (rising prices)
March 2001-November 2001
8
Endogenous tech bubble, accounting scandals and
inventory correction
December 2007-June 2009
18
Endogenous shock (housing and banking)
4 | MARCH 2016
. Recession probability model
110.0
Recessions
Recession probability index
100.0
Percentage probability
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: RSM US, Federal Reserve
So where are we now? The current business cycle is
on pace to be one of the longest expansions in the
post-World War II era. While growth remains slow by
historical standards, the risk of a recession based on the
proximate causes of the past six recessions remains
low. The following is a quick synopsis that underscores
our estimation that the current expansion will continue
through 2016 and into 2017.
Policy: The primary policy risk remains firmly rooted in the
path of interest rates. While the central bank increased the
federal funds rate by 25 basis points in December, recent
testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, and the January
Federal Reserve Open Market Committee minutes make
it clear that rates may move higher at a very slow pace.
At this time, the market is pricing in one 25 basis point
rate hike this year, which is below our forecast of 50 basis
points.
Due to the policy polarization in Washington, there
is little risk of a fiscal shock that could cause a recession
this year.
Inventory correction: Historically, the two most likely
indicators of recession are inventory overhangs in the
auto and housing industries. Through the end of the year,
the major auto producers had about 61 days of inventory
in showrooms (65 days is considered equilibrium), which
implied a pickup in production early this year. The housing
sector is actually experiencing an inventory shortfall as
the building community is having problems finding enough
workers to build new homes and there simply aren’t
enough existing homes on the market to meet demand.
Exogenous shocks: Sharp increases in oil prices caused
recessions in 1973, 1981 and 1990.
Currently, the United
States is experiencing a positive supply shock thanks to
an increase in the extraction of oil linked to the domestic
use of hydraulic fracking. Meanwhile, falling gasoline
prices have resulted in an increase in real income for U.S.
households. Sustained low oil and natural gas prices should
result in cheaper costs of production for domesticallybased industries.
Asset bubbles: The greatest risk of recession is clearly
linked to the recent sell off in U.S.
equity markets. The
Standard and Poor’s 500 index is down 9.73 percent
from its cyclical peak of 2,130.82 in May of last year. The
rotation in portfolio exposure away from China, energy,
commodities and financials may be quite noisy but isn’t
enough on its own to cause an economic contraction.
Meanwhile, the linkages between asset markets and the
real economy is quite limited.
Fundamentals: Declining unemployment, rising wages, a
noticeable increase in inflation-adjusted income and solid
wholesale-retail sales all suggest that there is more than
enough economic activity to offset the contraction in the
manufacturing sector.
Moreover, the January industrial
production report indicated a modest rebound in factory
orders, and production excluding motor vehicles are
consistent with our forecast for a mild recovery in the
manufacturing sector this year. While it is still early in
the quarterly data cycle, GDP is tracking near 2.7 percent
in the first quarter of the year, which suggests a strong
rebound after last quarter’s slowdown and is consistent
with our preferred recession probability model which
implies a low risk for recession.
RSM | TH E RE A L ECO N O MY | 5
. NEAR-TERM RECESSION FEARS ARE
OVERBLOWN, BUT HERE ARE THE SEEDS
OF THE NEXT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN
During the first two months of 2016, risk appetite in
financial markets turned decisively negative and investors
began pricing in a much slower economy than what has
actually occurred. The key question that needs to be
addressed now is, what are the major causes behind the
shift in sentiment and do those factors carry enough
elements of a negative self-fulfilling prophecy to turn what
has been a modest correction in asset prices into an end to
the business cycle?
value of the yuan, we anticipate that they will choose growth
via lower rates and a cheaper currency, which runs the risk of
causing an increase in capital outflows and of the $3.1 trillion
in currency reserves the country says it possesses.
If the fiscal authority loses control and the yuan depreciates
at a more rapid pace than the 3.5 percent implied by the
nondeliverable forward market, this runs the risk of a major
disruption in competitiveness and global trade.
Several major concerns among global investors and firm
managers have emerged that together may contain the
seeds of the next economic downturn.
China debt burden becoming worrisome
Moreover, with corporate debt standing at 160 percent of
GDP, and household debt as a percentage of GDP at 36
percent, there is legitimate concern about where a rebound
in growth will originate. Thus, with the People’s Bank of China
(PBOC) facing a choice between stabilizing growth or the
6 | MARCH 2016
160
140
Percentage (annual)
220
120
210
100
200
80
190
60
180
Percentage (annual)
Capital outflows were close to $1 trillion in 2015, which
caused fiscal and monetary authorities to use $1 trillion to
prop up equity markets and support the currency. Given that
total debt-to-GDP in China rose above 260 percent as of the
end of 2014, and likely soared above 300 percent last year,
there are questions regarding what steps the fiscal authority
could take to support growth without intensifying the debt
and deleveraging cycle that has begun.
180
230
China: The economic slowdown in China has been much
sharper than contained by official statistics.
Electricity
demand on a year-ago basis turned negative in 2015 and
implies a growth rate closer to 3 percent, much less than
the 7 percent policymaker target.
240
40
China total debt as percentage of GDP (lhs)
170
20
China corporate debt as percentage of GDP (rhs)
160
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
2015
Source: RSM US, Bloomberg
European banking: Growing concerns about the
ability of euro-area banks’ ability to cover contingent
convertible bonds, which would require another round of
recapitalization to avoid investor losses, have caused credit
default swaps on select European banks to noticeably
widen to levels last seen in 2012, at the height of the
European sovereign debt crisis. Widening credit default
swaps (CDS) spreads are related to falling commodity
prices and deflation risk in Europe.
. Global oil markets: Oil prices have yet to find a price floor,
which is feeding into fears of a global recession based on a
combination of oversupply and falling demand, especially
from China and emerging markets. Meanwhile, OPEC
countries haven’t been able to reach an agreement to
curtail or freeze production.
Credit default swaps on European banks widening
400
S&P/ISDA CDS select OTR-weighted average index spread
DB five-year credit default swaps
350
300
Index
250
200
150
100
50
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: RSM US, Bloomberg
In our 2016 year-ahead growth forecast, we noted there
was a risk that the price of oil may fall to about $20 per
barrel, just above the inflation-adjusted low of $17.26
reached in 1998 ($11.91 in non-inflation-adjusted terms).
Given the 70 percent decline in oil prices since June 2014,
countries such as Venezuela, Nigeria and Russia have
fallen into economic depression and may choose to
default on global debt obligations. During a time of regional
geopolitical tensions, global investors and firm managers
with exposure to the region are rightfully concerned
that conditions could deteriorate and spillover into global
financial markets.
Central banking: Investor confidence in global central
banks appears to be waning. There is a growing impression
that central banks have reached the outer limits of
conventional and nonconventional policies to support
growth.
Moreover, with the Federal Reserve unlikely to
push rates up the 400 basis points that is typically needed
to provide monetary accommodation during economic
downturns, there is a fear that the Fed will need to resort
to a negative interest rate policy during the next recession,
which will negatively affect financial institutions.
Fiscal policy: With interest rates near zero, and real interest
rates in the developed economies negative, a rational
economic choice would be to turn to fiscal policy to support
growth during an economic slowdown. Monetary policy
is constrained by the zero bound, so policymakers would
get more bang for the buck, so to speak, through fiscal
policy. That, however, has not been the choice of decisionmakers in the major economies.
In Europe, the choice has
been austerity, which triggered a bout of deflation that the
continental economy has yet to recover from. In the United
States, political polarization and stark ideological differences
have, until very recently, resulted limited fiscal support for
the economy. We have made the case that, with borrowing
costs near zero in the United States, conditions are ripe for
a $1 trillion infrastructure project that could be financed
out over 30 or even 50 years.
The greater concern going
forward is that if fiscal policy is off the table, what policy
flexibility do decision-makers have if the business cycle
ends during the next two to three years?
MIDDLE MARKET INSIGHT:
Direct concerns about a possible increase in tariffs on
imported goods, a reduction in foreign labor and punitive
taxation on businesses to fund a rapid expansion of
government-supported entitlements has shocked many
middle market firms. In our estimation, unless the electoral
equation changes soon, there is a risk that fixed business
investment, which as a percentage of GDP has only
recovered to Clinton-era levels, could slow noticeably and is
a potential harbinger of the next economic downturn.
U.S. political risk: During the past four decades, the federal
government has been more or less friendly to business
and global commerce.
However, in this election year, the
leading candidates in both political parties are promising
to overturn the commercial consensus that has prevailed
since the early 1980s. For the first time in recent memory,
firms are looking at how they may need to price U.S.
political risk into the cost of business operations.
RSM | TH E RE A L ECO N O MY | 7
. DIMINISHING OPPORTUNITIES AMID
EXCESS CAPITAL TO DRIVE REAL ESTATE
DEAL FLOW IN 2016
With interest rates relatively low and periods of high
volatility in equity markets, real estate will likely continue
to draw investor interest that is sure to spark more
dealmaking in 2016.
Transaction activity in commercial real estate will be
dominated by multifamily housing that is expected to draw
greater investor interest and stir up more development.
“You go around the country and you see more cranes going
up. Multifamily is still a good place to be,” says Richard
Edleheit, national real estate leader for RSM US LLP.
“People are changing the way they are living. More and
more people are living in the city,” says Tom Green,
partner and assurance lead at RSM’s national real estate
practice. According to Green, this shift in living patterns
has not gone by unnoticed by private equity investors and
pensions.
Pensions are increasingly putting their money
to work directly into the asset class; some, for example,
will partner up with a designated real estate company that
tailors a specific investment platform for them.
Mortgage rates, 5-year ARM
4.00
Much of this activity is tied to changes in attitudes about
homeownership and affordability.
Some recent government data show that as
homeownership rates in the single-family arena have slid
down to levels not seen since the mid-1990s, vacancy
rates for multifamily properties are also down to 20-year
lows. Some of that shift may be tied to affordability issues
that keep some consumers from buying a single-family
home, but much of it likely is a change in the tastes of the
U.S. population.
8 | MARCH 2016
5-year ARM rate
3.80
3.60
3.40
Mortgage rate (percentage)
Multifamily starts will likely see an increase in activity in
2016 from 2015 and 2014, according to projections made
by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Earlier this year, the
industry group said it expects commercial and multifamily
mortgage banker originations to set a new record and
surpass the $508 billion mark of 2007. “You will continue
to see development in the larger gateway markets of the
United States and you will see it in secondary cities such
as Austin, Portland, Nashville, Charlotte and similar cities,”
says Edelheit. “We are going to see plenty of real estate
activity in the marketplace.”
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1/14/2011
1/14/2012
1/14/2013
1/14/2014
1/14/2015
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
In addition to demographics, the development in
commercial real estate such as multifamily housing is being
driven by private equity funds eager to put money to work.
A November survey of private equity real estate fund
managers—the results of which were published in
February 2016—found that “finding attractive investment
opportunities” is the single biggest challenge faced by
a majority of the survey’s respondents.
Investors—90
. Refi and purchase indexes
Demographics have not just reshaped how investors
view multifamily housing. They have forced institutional
investors to focus on facilities designed to cater to the
needs of an ageing population.
MBA refi index
MBA purchase index
6,000
300
200
4,000
150
3,000
MBA purchase index
MBA refinance index
250
5,000
100
2,000
1,000
1/10
50
0
10/10
7/11
4/12
1/13
10/13
7/14
4/15
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
percent of them said their investment in the asset class
met or exceeded their expectations - are conducting more
due diligence and they are expanding their investment
teams. Of those fund managers surveyed, 67 percent say it
is more difficult to find attractive investment opportunities
than one year ago.
That collision of diminishing opportunities and excess
capital may also serve as a reminder to market participants
of the importance of keeping up with stringent due
diligence, say Green and Edelheit.
Other segments of commercial real estate that likely
will continue to see more activity in 2016 are retail and
continuing care properties.
When it comes to brick-and-mortar locations, retailers
are shifting how they use and present their physical space
to customers. For example, auto dealers are rearranging
floor plans of sales outlets – borrowing design elements
from mobile phone retail outlets that involve fewer desks
and use more open space.
Then, there is what may be the
biggest development for retail investors: the possibility
that Amazon may open some physical store locations.
“Things are ever evolving,” says Green.
“The demographics alone have made this an attractive
space for investors and developers,” says Green. “We are
seeing a lot of conversions of former use properties into
senior housing. We are starting to see more funds just
focused on these health care opportunities.
It is really
something that is attractive to all corners of America
because of the demographics.”
Despite changing preferences, the single-family world of
real estate is also expected to be active this year, according
to Green and Edelheit.
5.50
Mortgage rates, 30 year & 15 year contract
Fixed rate 30-year contract rate
Fixed rate 15-year contract rate
5.00
Mortgage Rates (%)
350
7,000
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1/10 7/10
1/11
7/11
1/12
7/12
1/13
7/13
1/14 7/14
1/15
7/15
1/16
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
Mortgage lenders are expected to have their hands full in
2016 when it comes to applications to buy home loans and
the business of refinancing existing mortgages. In February,
refinancing alone accounted for over 60 percent of all
single-family home loans processed by lenders–a high not
seen since February 2014. Whether this type of business
dominates lender activity for the rest of the year is unclear.
Much of that activity will be shaped by the direction of U.S.
Treasury rates.
“With low rates, continuous refinancing is
wonderful for the mortgage bankers,” says Green.
RSM | TH E RE A L ECO N O MY | 9
. Q&A
2016 REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
RICK EDELHEIT AND TOM GREEN
Q: What should we expect for the real estate markets in 2016?
Rick: Notwithstanding some hiccups in the global marketplace,
we are going to see some of the same trends we saw in
2015. We are going to see plenty of real estate activity in the
marketplace, both acquisitions and dispositions. Cap rates will
continue to stay a bit low, which is what we have seen in the last
handful of years. We might see some international funds coming
into the United States.
Q: With all of the heightened investor interest, is the real estate
market too hot and how is that impacting loan standards?
Rick: As we see more and more transactions, the biggest
concern is underwriting.
Sometimes with more deals getting
done, there is actually less due diligence. If we start seeing bigger
deals, and we are not being called upon to provide underlying
financial due diligence services, we know that things are going
on in the marketplace that start to look a little bit cavalier. If we
are representing the lender, at times, what we will see is that
they have a bogey set in which they are mandated to have due
diligence.
If that bogey starts to climb higher from a $100 million
loan to a $150 million loan, then we know by definition that the
underwriting process can be negatively impacted.
Q: Is any property type more active in real estate?
Rick: Residential property values are continuing to climb, and
as they climb, to a certain extent, it makes it more difficult for
homeowners to buy homes. So, multifamily is still a good place to
be and it will continue to be a good place to be for quite a while.
You will continue to see development, in particular, in the larger
MSAs in the United States. You are seeing more and more people
coming back into the cities.
We are going to see it in secondary
markets as well. We will see more development in multifamily.
You go around the country and you see more cranes going up.
When it comes to energy prices, the reduced price of oil is going
to enhance net operating income and returns to investors.
Q: What is your view on recent data that shows homeownership
rates falling to lows not seen since the mid-1990s?
Tom: People are changing the way they live and on top of that
you have millennials. More and more people are moving into cities,
and you are seeing more development of multifamily properties.
Q: How do private equity funds fit into your outlook?
Tom: Over the next year or two, we are going to continue to see
a lot of activity in commercial real estate and that has to do with
the available capital that private equity companies are sitting on
and the entry of foreign investors into the U.S.
market. That’s
10 | MARCH 2016
really keeping prices somewhat inflated and capital rates low.
That will continue for a while.
Rick: There are private equity companies that are focused on the
single-family home rental strategy. The amount of single-family
homes that have been accumulated by this handful of companies
has been very substantial.
They have spent a lot of money
developing the infrastructure to support that investment.
Tom: Property values are climbing, generally speaking, across
the country. In Chicago, we are starting to see a nice increase
in the values of homes. I think that—maybe except for an area
like Houston which may be hit by the impact of oil—most of the
United States has seen an appreciation in value.
Q: What is your outlook for retail, industrial and retirement
community properties?
Rick: In 2015, retail had a very good year, probably better than
was expected.
As long as your retailers continue to change with
the times to reinvent themselves, brick-and-mortar will continue
to be here.
Tom: Industrial properties have been strong. It has certainly been
an active market. The demographics alone have made continuing
care properties an attractive space for investors and developers.
We are seeing a lot of conversions of former use properties into
senior housing, whether it is assisted living or independent living.
If you take the entire spectrum, these continuing-care retirement
communities are pretty attractive.
We are starting to see more
funds solely focused on these health care opportunities. There
is a lot of ground-up development, and it is something that is
attractive to all corners of America because of the demographics.
Rick: You have a lot of baby boomers that have been very
successful over the last four years and what you are finding is
that baby boomer needs are different than what they used to
be. Some of the answer, and opportunity, has been through the
development of high-end facilities.
Q: When it comes to changes in accounting treatments, are
there any issues we should consider when it comes to leasing?
Tom: There are some proposed changes related to lease
accounting that have not been finalized yet.
It will probably have a
bigger impact on tenants and it has to do more with them having
to onboard the lease liability onto their balance sheet. Previously,
they recognized it as an income statement item in terms of
reflecting the current-year lease activity. The thought is that this
is going to have a big impact because it will dramatically affect the
way the balance sheet looks.
And, it will have an impact on certain
financial metrics and ratios that are key to allowing them to do
business, especially on the borrowing side.
. RSM INDUSTRY COVERAGE
SPECIALTY FINANCE
Deterring and detecting internal and external
fraud for specialty lenders
RSM recently conducted research among specialty finance
firms on both internal and external fraud and found that
roughly half of all surveyed firms had experienced fraud. While
fraud losses tended to be relatively low, they are almost never
recovered. Half of the companies that experienced one form
of fraud also experienced the other, which seems to indicate a
relatively lax internal control environment at those companies
and underscores the importance of effective controls. Partner
Ronnie Lee outlined the issues and then ways to detect and
deter fraud in this article.
Details of the study can be found here.
LAW FIRMS
Law firm look-back and outlook
Barry Rosenthal, leader for the national business and
professional services practice, reviewed trends shaping, and
shaking up, the law firms.
In a Q&A, Rosenthal found that firms
are expanding their global knowledge and presence to tap into a
global economy, who are doing business worldwide. Law firms
are also looking to control costs through the use of artificial
intelligence (AI) to handle routine work such as document
scanning. Another cost trend: firms are rethinking their office
space to reduce the cost of rent, which is the second largest
firm cost, after compensation.
On the practice side, litigation
and bankruptcy work is down, while M&A work is rising, which
is good news for firms with private equity and real estate
clients. Growth in technology and life sciences is also spurring
an increase in intellectual property work. For the complete Q&A,
look here.
activities or expenditures may not be prohibited, depending
on the facts and circumstances.
So, certain voter education
activities—including presenting public forums and publishing
voter education guides—conducted in a nonpartisan manner do
not constitute prohibited political campaign activity. This white
paper by partner James Sweeney looks at the do’s and don’ts
of elections, with six situations where section 501(c)(4), (5) or
(6) organizations have entered into political activities.
TECHNOLOGY AND
MANAGEMENT CONSULTING
Leveraging the third platform: New technology
enhances business insights
The latest step in the technology environment is called the
third platform. It consists of resources that add dimensions
and information capabilities to help you make better business
decisions and increase revenue.
These resources include:
•• Mobility
•• Cloud computing
•• Social media
•• The Internet of Things
•• Big data
The third platform’s rise reflects increased computer
processing power, enhanced mobile technologies and
evolving demographics. To leverage the opportunities,
organizations must evaluate the technology budget and
existing priorities, and make changes to properly integrate
the new technology.
RSM principals, Jim Klimkowski and Bill Kracunas, provide more
details on the sources of value and ideas for implementation
in the complete article, available here.
NONPROFIT
PRIVATE EQUITY
Election year do’s and don’ts for nonprofits
In a seller’s market, accelerating the deal close is
critical—and risky
The start of the 2016 general election is a good time for taxexempt organizations to review their compliance with political
regulations. Under the Internal Revenue Code, all section
501(c)(3) organizations are absolutely prohibited from directly
or indirectly participating in, or intervening in, any political
campaign on behalf of (or in opposition to) any candidate for
elective public office.
Contributions to political campaign funds
and public statements of position (verbal or written) made
on behalf of the organization in favor of or in opposition to
any candidate for public office clearly violate the prohibition
against political campaign activity. Violating this prohibition
may result in denial or revocation of tax-exempt status
and the imposition of certain excise taxes. However, certain
Private equity firms sometimes race to close deals within 30
days of letters of intent (LOIs).
Competition is intense—and
sellers know it. But closing a deal too quickly—before truly
understanding the business, its people and systems—can hold
back growth potential, lead to unexpected costs and destroy
value in the long term. Striking the right balance between speed
and thoroughness is especially challenging, and may require
investing in additional resources to close the deal on time and
according to plan.
RSM principal, Christina Churchill, and director,
Dennis Cail, examine the risks and responses to fast closes
using examples of a family-owned business, a new industry
and a carve-out, in this piece from RSM’s Insight newsletter.
RSM | TH E RE A L ECO N O MY | 11
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