POLEN CAPITAL THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
June 2015
A L L E RG A N : A H
Q
C
POLENCAPITAL.COM
Executive Summary
The recent $70.5 billion acquisi on of Allergan by the Irish pharmaceu cal company, Actavis plc,
turned the ï¬nal page on Polen Capital’s sixâ€year investment in Allergan— this was a proï¬table
period that yielded a robust return of approximately sixâ€fold for Polen clients.
The Allergan investment decision was the natural outcome of successfully execu ng our investment
discipline. When we began researching Allergan in 2005, it met all of the quan ta ve hurdles that
we ini ally look for: sustained high returns on capital, aboveâ€average earnings per share and free
cash flow growth, strong and improving margins, reasonable debt levels, and a very capable manageâ€
ment team.
But while those are all the earmarks of a great business, our investment team s ll needed to dedicate
the me to more carefully evaluate whether it truly was a great business. We pa ently built our
knowledge of the company over several years and waited for a compelling risk/reward scenario to
present itself. The global ï¬nancial crisis in late 2008 provided that compelling opportunity. Allergan
shares declined as sales of its discre onary aesthe c products slowed pushing the company’s P/E
mul ple below 15x. Given our longâ€term view on the business’s growth poten al, we believed this
was an ideal entry point.
We built a posi on in Allergan, and as the business delivered solid fundamental performance during
the next several years—consistent with its history and its favorable ongoing market posi on—the
shares rose as well. While we consider underlying earnings per share and free cash flow growth to
be the primary drivers of longâ€term share price performance, Allergan’s stock also beneï¬ted as the
P/E mul ple expanded from depressed levels. While it was never central to our investment thesis,
we always recognized that Allergan’s strong growth and leadership posi on in its specialty markets
also made the company an a rac ve acquisi on target for larger healthcare companies seeking to
maintain a rac ve growth proï¬les. We never invest in a business on the hope of a takeâ€out, but
being an everâ€a rac ve acquisi on candidate can provide a measure of downside protec on
(par cularly at a more depressed valua on).
In this paper, we examine some of the unique factors that drove our decision to invest ini ally, and
to maintain our posi on even during a par cularly difficult me for the pharmaceu cal ï¬rm. We will
also lay out some of the a ributes that made Allergan an a rac ve acquisi on target, and we
explore some of its hidden strengths that enabled the company to successfully defend itself during
the acquisi on process, push the buying price of the company to unexpected levels, and extract full
and fair value for its shareholders.
Stephen Atkins, CFA
Research Analyst
KEY THEMES
BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION
Allergan shi ed its business
mix away from medical
devices to faster growing
specialty pharmaceu cal
treatments.
REASONABLE VALUATION
We ini ated our posi on in
Allergan for less than 15
mes current EPS for a busiâ€
ness that was growing 20%
annually.
PATIENT APPROACH
We maintained our posi on
through some temporary
setbacks because of our
convic on in the company
and its management team.
COMPOUNDING MACHINE
Over the six years in which
we were investors, Allergan
compounded EPS at 21% per
year with an average annual
rate of return of 32%.
. A LLERGAN
A
Investment Case Study
s 2014 wound to a close, Polen Capital
celebrated the 26th anniversary of the ï¬rm’s
founding. This milestone was borne out of the
hard work and determina on of our employees,
past and present, as well as the loyalty of our clients.
Though not nearly as signiï¬cant as surviving—and, indeed,
prospering—for a quarter of a century in the investment
industry, we achieved another milestone in 2014: the pubâ€
lica on of our ï¬rst white paper.
We view the crea on of white papers and other “thought
pieces” as part of the natural evolu on of our business.
Along with our quarterly commentaries, these serve as a
conduit to communicate with our clients and provide
greater clarity on our investment ï¬rm and the industry in
which we operate.
No sooner had we put the ï¬nishing touches on our ï¬rst
white paper than the discussion of our next white paper
topic had begun. Several ideas were bandied about, many
of which may become future thought pieces, but in the
midst of all the debate, it was our own por olio that
provided inspira on. In the ï¬rst quarter of 2015 we
divested our remaining posi on in Allergan Inc., which
brought to an end a very rewarding sixâ€year rela onship
with the company. Over that me, Allergan’s stock
increased roughly sixâ€fold and provided our clients with a
32% annualized total return.
PART I — THE WAITING GAME
T
he ï¬rst research note on Allergan, courtesy of
our coâ€por olio manager Damon Ficklin, dates
back to August 2005. Typically our ini al reâ€
search notes on a company contain just that,
our ini al thoughts on the business a er reading their
annual reports, earnings releases and other relevant
informa on.
For some background, Allergan is a healthcare company
that was once a subsidiary of SmithKline Beecham
before being spun out in 1989. Since then it had been
transforming itself from a medical deviceâ€focused
company into a specialty pharmaceu cals business
focused on ophthalmic and aesthe c products. The
company is perhaps best known for its injectable
neurotoxin, Botox, which was approved for a number
of medical condi ons and was becoming hugely popular
as a cosme c treatment for wrinkles.
The best companies usually stand out immediately and
Allergan was no excep on. Damon noted at the me
that the company “Looks like a solid business with
some interes ng possibili es.” What caught Damon’s
eye was Allergan’s business mix, which by 2005 was
fully dedicated to innova ve specialty pharmaceu cal
products with more promising growth poten al than
the medical device businesses that had preceded them.
To be clear, this isn’t about us taking a victory lap over a
successful investment. Rather, it struck us that the He was also impressed with Allergan’s commitment to
R&D, nearly 20% of sales at that point, as well as with
Allergan story involves many of the investment merits that
their highâ€powered Board of Directors which included
we covet most at Polen: an easy to understand company, a
Herbert Boyer, the founder of Genentech, and a numâ€
clear path to strong earnings growth over many years, a
ber of other experienced execu ves from the pharmaâ€
capable management team, high returns on capital and a
ceu cal, medical devices, health insurance and consumâ€
dominant market posi on with high barriers to entry.
er products industries.
Ul mately it was these a ributes, along with a pa ent outâ€
Finally, Botox stood out as a par cularly remarkable
look, that led to the investment being such a success for
therapy in that it was a biological medicine which was
our clients. It occurred to us that a case study of our
difficult to manufacture and had already lost patent
Allergan holding might be a great way for investors to
protec on several years prior. It also had a variety of
be er understand our investment approach. Thus, what
therapeu c uses, an established cosme c brand and
follows is a detailed account of Allergan’s “lifecycle” in our
dominant market share. S ll, this was just a ï¬rst pass.
por olio, star ng from our ini al research on the company
Much more work would need to be done in order to
and concluding with its eventual acquisi on by Actavis plc.
determine whether Allergan was worthy of one of the
We hope that you ï¬nd the discussion instruc ve and enâ€
twenty or so spots in our por olio.
lightening.
2
. A er his ini al note, Damon con nued to follow Allergan
closely and updated his thoughts with addi onal notes
every three months. He examined the company’s 2005
acquisi on of Inamed, a manufacturer of breast implants
and dermal ï¬llers, for which Allergan paid $3bn and
trumped a compe ng offer from rival Medicis. The deal
wasn’t cheap, with Allergan paying over 30x adjusted
earnings, but it was becoming clear that Allergan’s CEO
since 1998, David Pyo , had a vision for where he wanted
to take the company. Allergan’s product set focused
increasingly on localized treatments (eye drops, injectable
medicines, skin creams) rather than systemic ones
(tradi onal oral medica ons). Localized treatments are
o en more effec ve with less side effects than their
systemic counterparts.
Furthermore, Inamed’s focus on breast and facial aesâ€
the cs would be a nice complement to the company’s
Botox franchise. The aesthe cs business had a rac ve
economics due to the fact it was more of a consumer
franchise than a true pharmaceu cal one. Therefore
typical obstacles for drug companies, such as insurance
reimbursement and patent expira ons, weren’t as big an
issue. Addi onally, Pyo made a point of becoming verâ€
cally integrated so that Allergan controlled the developâ€
ment, manufacturing and distribu on of its products. As
a result, a defendable moat was forming around the enâ€
re business that would increasingly enable Allergan to
gain scale rela ve to many of its smaller peers. Pyo ’s
goal was for Allergan to be the number one or two playâ€
er in its major markets (something that would subseâ€
quently be achieved).
The shi in Allergan’s business mix during Pyo ’s tenure is illustrated in Exhibit 1.
Exhibit 1
By late 2007, Damon was increasingly convinced that
Allergan belonged in our por olio. In a note from
October 2007, he commented that Allergan is “the kind of
company we would like to own at the right price.” The
s cking point at the me was valua on. At a P/E of
roughly 28x current year earnings, Allergan’s stock was
elevated and there were concerns about increased
compe on in the next two years for the company’s
glaucoma franchise as well as for Botox. Combined, the
glaucoma and Botox businesses accounted for over 50%
of Allergan’s sales and both businesses had been growing
at a mid to high teen rate.
Any slowdown in these segments would be impac ul to
the company’s growth going forward. Though Allergan
was fairly well posi oned to defend its products through
line extensions, new approvals and increased marke ng
spend, our investment approach has always been
grounded in prudence.
We want to pay a fair value for our conserva ve
es mate of the business’s underlying cash flow growth.
By late 2007, Allergan’s stock simply hadn’t met the
risk/reward balance that we seek. There was nothing to
do but wait.
3
. PART II – BOTOX AND LEHMAN BROTHERS
B
otox is a puriï¬ed, diluted form of botulinum
which is the bacteria that causes botulism, a
poten ally fatal disease. Though Botox had
been well ve ed for nearly two decades, conâ€
cerns about the drug’s safety flared up from me to me.
One such flareâ€up occurred in early 2008 when the FDA
launched a safety review of Botox a er some adverse
events were reported in children with cerebral palsy.3
Around the same me, Botox sales growth slowed
no ceably, from 22% in the ï¬rst six months of 2007 to
15% in the ï¬rst six months of 2008, though this was more
likely due to the broader decelera on in the economy.
As a result of these events, Allergan’s stock price trended
lower through the ï¬rst half of 2008 from the high $60s to
the low $50s and it’s P/E mul ple had contracted to 20x
by July of that year.
At this valua on, the stock’s risk/reward was more balâ€
anced, especially if we could get comfortable that there
were no longâ€term issues with the Botox franchise. By
the autumn of 2008, however, Lehman Brothers helped
make this a far easier decision.
The collapse of Lehman in September of 2008, and the
resul ng market sellâ€off, pushed Allergan’s stock price
down to the mid $30s by October and its P/E mul ple
dropped below 15x. In a note from October 2008, Daâ€
mon commented that despite the slowdown in
Allergan’s business, “the share price decline already acâ€
counts for most of the downside and new products exâ€
pected to be approved in 2009 should drive a reacceleraâ€
on in growth in 2010 and beyond.”
The risk/reward balance had ï¬nally pped in our clients’
favor. During the ï¬rst week in November, Allergan was
added to the por olio. The meline of these events can
be seen in the chart in Exhibit 2.
Exhibit 2
4
. PART III – LET THE COMPOUNDING BEGIN
A
The global market for Wet AMD drugs was nearly $4bn
at the me with the vast majority of sales split among
only three drugs which meant that DARPin, to the extent
it was truly differen ated, could be a meaningful
revenue contributor to Allergan if it proved to be
successful.4 Finally, the company was running trials to
inves gate whether its product La sse, which was
approved as a treatment to thicken eyelashes, might also
be u lized as a treatment for hair regrowth that would
be superior to the widely used Minoxidil. Allergan’s
future looked as bright as ever.
er our ini al purchase of Allergan in Novemâ€
ber of 2008, we gradually built our posi on in
the stock during the next several months; by
midâ€2009 it was a 6% weight in our por olio.
As Damon had predicted the slowdown in Allergan’s
aesthe c businesses, namely Botox, proved to be
temporary and star ng in late 2009, the company’s
business began to reâ€accelerate. In the ï¬rst quarter of
2009 Allergan’s sales declined by 6.5%, but by the fourth
quarter of 2009 total sales growth had reâ€accelerated to
16%. Importantly, on an annual basis Allergan grew both
sales and earnings during the recession.
PART IV – DOUBLE WHAMMY
This has been a hallmark of the types of businesses we
or longâ€term investors, the convic on they have
seek to invest in at Polen Capital: those with the ability to
in an investment thesis is inevitably put to the
grow even during tough economic periods. Allergan’s
test at some point during their holding period.
strong growth con nued during the next three years and
Polen’s moment with Allergan occurred in 2013
from 2009â€2012 the company had annual compounded
when the company was hit with two bits of bad news in
earnings growth of 14%. Addi onally, the stock’s P/E
short succession.
mul ple began to expand again as business fundamentals
improved, which propelled Allergan’s stock from $40 per
The year had started out great for Allergan investors and
share at the end of 2008 to $91 per share by yearâ€end
in the ï¬rst four months of 2013 the stock had risen 24%.
2012, an annualized gain of nearly 23%.
But that ebullience quickly subsided when the company
reported its ï¬rst quarter earnings and surprised
Botox grew during this period to become a $1.8bn
investors by announcing that their promising DARPin
franchise by yearâ€end 2012. Even at this size it was s ll
therapy as well as La sse for hair regrowth would both
growing at a low doubleâ€digit rate and this was despite
be delayed as the company needed to run more trials.
new compe on that had entered the market in the past
In both cases it appeared that the clinical results were
two years. The eye care division also con nued its steady
not as encouraging as ini ally hoped and more data
growth, despite increased compe on. The standout in
would be needed to prove the efficacy of the therapies.
the company’s eye care franchise was Restasis, the only
Though it was notable that the trials for both therapies
FDAâ€approved prescrip on treatment for dryâ€eye. By year
were only delayed and not terminated—a far more
â€end 2012, Restasis was growing at a midâ€teens rate and
nega ve outcome—investors were s ll dissa sï¬ed.
generated nearly $800mm in sales, 14% of the company’s
total revenues at that point.
Allergan’s stock fell 13% the day the news was anâ€
nounced. Despite this setback, and somewhat lost in the
Allergan’s management team also con nued to devote
noise around the disappoin ng trial results, Allergan’s
substan al company cash flow to new product
core business was s ll performing very well with ï¬rst
development. Botox had received approval for treatment
quarter sales up 9% and adjusted EPS up 16%. With such
of chronic daily headaches and was likely to be approved
strong ongoing fundamental business performance, we
for treatment of overâ€ac ve bladder in the coming
were comfortable looking beyond a couple of temporary
months. The company had also licensed a drug called
pipeline setbacks.
DARPin, which is a therapy for Wet Ageâ€Related Macular
Degenera on (Wet AMD) that was in Phase II trials. Wet
Allergan was broadsided again less than two months
AMD is a chronic eye disease that can cause permanent
later when the FDA proposed dra guidance that would
vision loss and is typically treated with painful injec ons
lower the bar for bringing a generic form of Restasis to
to the back of the eye. Newer treatments such as DARPin
market. For some context, Restasis (a prescrip on
featured a longer treatmentâ€dura on proï¬le, which
treatment for dry eye that comprised nearly 15% of
meant pa ents could poten ally go extended intervals
Allergan’s sales) was a hardâ€toâ€manufacture emulsion
(every three months) between injec ons.
product.
F
5
. The company’s patent on the drug was due to expire in
2014 but, because of the difficul es in manufacturing and
tes ng a compe ve emulsion, no generic company had
even bothered to challenge the patent. This niche
prescrip on market essen ally belonged to Allergan.
The FDA’s new dra guidance, however, would poten ally
make it much easier to develop a compe ve product by
not requiring a generic company to run the large pa ent
trials previously deemed necessary to gain approval.
Essen ally, the dra guidance proposed that by simply
proving their emulsion was close enough in characteris cs
(“bioequivalence” in industry parlance), a generic drug
manufacturer could poten ally get approval. Typically
the FDA only grants these types of approvals for oral pills
that are easier to manufacture. For a more complex
product like Restasis this appeared to be an unusual deâ€
cision. Not surprisingly, Allergan’s stock was hit hard
once again; it fell 12% the day the FDA released their
dra guidance and was down 30% from its April high.
Once a Wall Street darling, sellâ€side analysts
began abandoning the Allergan ship and a slew of downâ€
grades followed. It was only natural that we asked
ourselves if we should consider doing the same.
A meline of the events from 2009â€2013 are shown in the chart in Exhibit 3.
Exhibit 3
Despite much consterna on, there was one ques on that
was paramount: Even with these recent issues, was
Allergan s ll a great business for the longâ€term? Our
answer was undoubtedly yes. The company’s midâ€stage
pipeline had taken a couple of hits with delays for DARPin
and La sse, but this seemed fully accounted for now in
the stock price. Even the poten al for generic
compe on with Restasis appeared to be discounted in
the current valua on. By midâ€year 2013 Allergan shares
traded for about 18x earnings, the lowest P/E mul ple
since 2009. Growth in the core franchise was s ll very
healthy, the compe ve advantages around the business
remained very strong and management had several levers
it could pull.
Measures such as cost reduc ons or share repurchases
could be implemented to enhance earnings growth.
Furthermore, it was en rely possible that the current
issues that had affected the company might resolve
favorably. Both DARPin and La sse had been delayed
but not terminated and the company planned to
vigorously challenge the FDA’s dra guidance on Restasis
generics.
Since the bad news had already been priced into the
stock, there was op onality if any of these issues worked
out posi vely. With Allergan’s stock a 5.5% weight in our
por olio, we decided to maintain our posi on.
6
. PART V – A ‘VALEANT’ FIGHT
F
rom June 2013 un l November of that year,
Allergan’s stock treaded water. By late in the
fourth quarter, however, the stock began to reâ€
cover nicely and for the year actually appreciated
21%. The company’s fundamentals con nued to shine
through, and for the full year 2013 total sales grew 11.5%
and adjusted EPS grew 18%. Addi onally, late in the year
the company began to take aggressive ac on to defend its
Restasis franchise by ï¬ling new patents on the product
that would have poten ally delayed any generic compe â€
on for several addi onal years.
As the calendar flipped into 2014 it appeared that the
issues that had plagued Allergan the year before may have
simply been speed bumps. But then in midâ€April of that
year something odd began to happen. Allergan’s stock
price started rapidly apprecia ng on heavy volume. From
April 10 to April 21 the stock price rallied from $116 to
$142. We speculated as to what could be driving the
share price higher in such brisk fashion, and by the end of
the day on April 21 we had our answer.
Valeant Pharmaceu cals, in collabora on with the hedge
fund Pershing Square, made an unsolicited offer to acâ€
quire Allergan for nearly $48bn, or roughly $160/share.
The offer was a mix of cash (roughly $15bn) and Valeant
stock. Addi onally, Pershing Square, run by wellâ€known
hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, had accumulated a
nearly 10% stake in Allergan in the days leading up to the
offer announcement. Allergan’s stock moved sharply highâ€
er and by April 25 was $168.
This unusual partnership, with Ackman’s fund acquiring a
massive stake in Allergan immediately prior to a deal
being made public, quite frankly didn’t pass the smell test
to us. But it became clear in the days following the
announcement that both Pershing Square and Valeant
had taken great pains to ensure compliance with SEC regâ€
ula ons.
There were two issues that immediately leapt out to us
shortly a er the Valeant/Pershing proposal was anâ€
nounced. First, the offer was far short of our es mate
of fair value for Allergan’s business. Second, it was very
unlikely that we would be interested in holding Valeant
stock should a deal between the companies actually be
consummated. Valeant Pharmaceu cals was a Canadaâ€
based business that had grown rapidly over the last few
years with an aggressive M&A strategy that took
advantage of the company’s low corporate tax rate.
This low rate, only 8% in Canada, allowed Valeant to
acquire businesses in higher tax jurisdic ons such as
the U.S. and make them highly accre ve almost
immediately. Valeant pursued what we liked to term
an “op miza on strategy.”
The company was led by a no nonâ€sense CEO, Mike
Pearson, who felt that the pharmaceu cal industry wastâ€
ed far too much money in trying to develop drugs, many
of which would never even reach commercializa on. His
approach was to acquire companies with
products that had steady, predictable growth and li le
patent risk or insurance reimbursement issues and then
“op mize” the assets by stripping out excess costs
associated with R&D and marke ng.
To this end, Allergan was an ideal target for him with its
mix of durable products in aesthe cs, skin care and eye
care. Valeant had already acquired Allergan’s rival
Medicis in 2012 as well as contact lens manufacturer
Bausch & Lomb in 2013. As a result of this aggressive
buying spree, Valeant’s balance sheet had in excess of
$17bn in longâ€term debt by the end of 2013 compared to
only a li le over $5bn in equity.
With our strict focus on companies with strong balance
sheets, Valeant’s aggressive M&A strategy and high debt
levels made it a poor ï¬t for our por olio.5 Because the
majority of Valeant’s offer for Allergan was comprised of
stock rather than cash it was clear from the outset that
Valeant’s management would be keen on promo ng the
value their deal created for both companies’ shareholdâ€
ers. As investor conï¬dence in the deal increased, so too
would Valeant’s stock price which in turn would push up
the overall value of their offer.
So it was not a surprise to us, as a large Allergan
shareholder, when in early May we were contacted by
Valeant’s management team. They wanted to meet to
discuss the offer and were willing to come down to our
office in Florida. At that mee ng Mike Pearson, as well
as Valeant’s CFO Howard Schiller, laid out their case for
the deal and why our focus shouldn’t just be on the offer
at hand but on the longâ€term poten al of the combined
businesses. We discussed with them our concerns
around Valeant’s business model and balance sheet and
expressed that we were not likely to own the combined
company in our por olio.
As such, we were not interested in the poten al for
postâ€deal synergies, but were seeking full and certain
value for our Allergan shares. Furthermore, we were
content to con nue to own standâ€alone Allergan and let
the business compound earnings and value over me.
7
.
To the extent Valeant was feeling us out to see if we
would support the deal, they likely le disappointed.
A er our mee ng with Valeant, we scheduled a mee ng
with Allergan’s management team at their company
headquarters in Irvine, CA. At that mee ng, our CIO Dan
Davidowitz was forthright about where we stood. “We
view Allergan as a great business,” he told CEO David Pyâ€
o , “so if someone wants our shares they’ll need to pay a
premium to get them.”
Pyo , a so â€spoken Brit with Sco sh parents, happily
agreed telling us that, despite his long tenure at Allergan,
this was not an emo onal decision. His priority was to
maximize value for Allergan shareholders by providing the
investment community with perspec ve on the compaâ€
ny’s future growth poten al. Doing so would effec vely
raise the bar for an acquirer, Valeant or otherwise, as Alâ€
lergan shareholders would see the true value of the busiâ€
ness and demand a fair price for it. But this process would
take me and require some pa ence. We le the mee ng
feeling conï¬dent that management’s priori es appeared
to be completely aligned with ours and our clients. The
next several months of 2014 saw Allergan and Valeant
involved in an entertaining corporate standâ€off, a meline
of which can be seen in Exhibit 4.
From the Allergan side, David Pyo put pressure on the
Valeant board by raising earnings guidance on mul ple
occasions and arguing that Allergan was far more
valuable as a standalone company. He also repeatedly
assailed Valeant’s business model and accused the
company of using an aggressive rollâ€up strategy to drive
growth that wouldn’t be sustainable longâ€term.
Pyo ’s rather pointed cri cisms seemed to put Valeant
on the defensive and underscored his use of a common,
but s ll clever, nego a ng maneuver: push up the perâ€
ceived value of your asset and push down the perceived
value of your suitor. Doing so places increased pressure
on the acquirer to raise its offer which, a er all, is the
ul mate goal. Valeant responded by defending its
business model and providing more transparency to
investors on its ï¬nancials. Pershing Square, as Allergan’s
largest shareholder, used its influence to gather shareâ€
holder support and force Allergan’s board to call for a
special mee ng in December at which Pershing would
propose to remove six current Allergan board members
and replace them with six of its own nominees.
Valeant even announced an exchange offer in May of
2014 in an a empt to bypass Allergan’s board and take
their proposal directly to shareholders for a vote, a tac c
that would require removing the company’s poison pill.6
Exhibit 4
8
. All of this was great theater but one issue we needed to
contend with was what to do with our posi on in
Allergan, which by June 2014 was nearly a 9% weight in
our por olio. Clients repeatedly inquired if we were preâ€
paring to trim our weight in the stock. They asked if we
were concerned what would happen if the deal fell
through and Valeant walked away. Wouldn’t Allergan’s
stock plummet back to where it was before the offer was
announced in April? While these concerns were certainly
legi mate, Dan and Damon were steadfast in their belief
that the risk/reward was s ll very much skewed in our
clients’ favor. Their argument was that Allergan’s
increased guidance helped put a floor under the stock as
the company’s earnings power was now more evident.
W
Furthermore, based on Allergan’s 2015 EPS guidance of
roughly $8.50 and assuming a historically average mul â€
ple for the stock of 23x, the implied fair value for the
company was nearly $200/share. Thus, Valeant’s various
bids appeared to offer li le in the way of a true premium
to our reasonable assessment of intrinsic value for the
business. In Dan and Damon’s es ma on, a higher offer
was likely. Indeed, when Actavis announced in
November that Allergan had agreed to an offer valued at
$219/share there was a feeling of bi ersweet sa sfacâ€
on. The premium we sought for our clients was ï¬nally
achieved though at the cost of losing one of the best
businesses that we had ever owned.
POST-MORTEM
e maintained our signiï¬cant weigh ng in
Allergan un l December of 2014. By this
me the stock was at $211 per share and
a 10% weight in our por olio. At this price
it was a 6.5% discount to the announced offer price and
with the risk/reward now more balanced, and a higher
offer much less likely, the prudent course of ac on was to
begin trimming our holding. Actavis, similar to Valeant,
was a fast growing pharmaceu cal company that had
been on an aggressive acquisi on spree. Tradi onally it
had focused on generic medicines but was now beginning
to branch out to the branded space as well. Prior to
acquiring Allergan, the company had purchased drug
maker Forest Labs for $23bn in early 2014. Also similar to
Valeant, this acquisi on binge had caused the company’s
debt to balloon to levels that we felt were not
appropriate for our por olio. Thus by February of 2015,
with no inten on of holding Actavis stock and the
remaining premium to the closing of the deal in March at
only 3%, we sold our remaining stake in Allergan at $226/
share.
All told, since our ini al purchase in 2008 Allergan stock
delivered to our clients an annualized total return of
32%. Over that same me period the business grew its
adjusted EPS at about 21% per annum. It’s this last
sta s c that is perhaps the most per nent one.
Ul mately, the majority of Allergan’s return during our
holding period was propelled by the company’s
underlying earnings growth with the remainder driven by
P/E mul ple expansion. We expect that this would hold
true for all of our investments. That is, for the majority
(if not all) of the total investment return to be driven by
earnings growth with mul ple expansion and dividend
yield being more modest contributors. Our longâ€term
approach remains the same: iden fy wellâ€run businesses
with sustainable compe ve advantages, high returns on
capital, above average earnings and free cash flow
growth, rockâ€solid balance sheets and strong secular
tailwinds. We believe focusing on just a handful of these
most excep onal companies leads to the best
investment outcomes for our clients.
Endnotes
1. Allergan’s ophthalmic franchise consisted of prescription treatments
for glaucoma and dry eye as well as OTC eye care products such as
Refresh.
2. By 2006, Botox was approved for a wide range of neuromuscular
disorders such as blepharospasm (eyelid spams), strabismus (crosseyed) and hyperhidrosis (excessive underarm sweating). About half of
Botox’s sales were therapeutic with the other half being cosmetic.
3.
Botox was not approved for cerebral palsy but was sometimes used
off-label to help control spasms.
4. Those three drugs were Lucentis and Avastin (Roche) and Eylea
(Regeneron)
5. Though not a good fit for us, Valeant has proven to be a highly
successful investment and we hold the company’s largest shareholder,
Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb, in high esteem.
As of 12/31/2014 VRX’s
10-year annualized total return was nearly 30% compared to 8% for
the S&P 500. Source: Factset.
6. Immediately after the Valeant offer was announced, Allergan’s board
adopted a poison pill that effectively blocked any shareholder from
acquiring more than a 10% stake in the company.
The only practical
way of removing this poison pill was to vote in new board members
who would be supportive of such action. In order to change board
members, one would need votes from a majority of the shareholder
base. Hence, garnering at least 50% of shareholders’ support was a
critical goal for Valeant and Pershing Square.
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About the Author
Stephen Atkins, CFA, Research Analyst, joined Polen Capital in 2012 a er a 12â€year tenure as a por olio
manager at Northern Trust investments—including eight years as a mutual fund coâ€por olio manager. Mr.
Atkins also spent two years at Carl Domino Associates, LP. He received his B.S. in Business Administra on
from Georgetown University and a General Course degree from the London School of Economics. Mr.
Atkins is a CFA Charterholder and a member of the CFA Ins tute and CFA Society of South Florida.
About Polen Capital
Polen Capital is an independentlyâ€owned Growth equity bou que that is managed and run by an
experienced and though ul group of ï¬nancial professionals who are focused on our disciplined Investment
Strategy.
At Polen Capital, we believe that consistent earnings growth is the primary driver of intrinsic value and long
â€term stock apprecia on. Our efforts focus on iden fying and inves ng in a concentrated por olio of high
quality companies that we believe are capable of delivering sustainable, aboveâ€average earnings growth.
By thinking and inves ng like a business owner and taking a longâ€term investment approach, we believe we
can preserve capital and provide stability in vola le markets.
Our Strategy is accessible through our Mutual Fund, Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs) and
Undertakings for the Collec ve Investment of Transferable Securi es (UCITS).
Ins tu onal Rela ons
+ 1â€800â€358â€1887
Ins tu onalrela ons@polencapital.com
1825 NW Corporate Blvd. Suite 300, Boca Raton, FL 33431
www.polencapital.com
The information provided in this report should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security.
There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in the composite at the time you receive this report or that the
securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed do not represent the composite’s entire portfolio. Actual
holdings will vary depending on the size of the account, cash flows and restrictions. It should not be assumed that any of the
securities transactions or holdings discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or
decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.
For a
complete list of Polen’s past specific recommendations holdings report and current holdings as of the current quarter end, please
contact Polen Capital at info@polencapital.com
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