{forging ahead}
2015 the road ahead
Assessing the key milestones
of 2014 and taking stock
of the path before us are
critical steps as we prepare
to forge ahead into what
2015 has in store.
. . forging ahead
Executive summary.
•
Despite a slow start to the year, U.S. economic
growth rebounded and advanced at a
moderate pace in the quarters that followed.
Steady economic growth supported the
Fed’s decision to end its latest round
of quantitative easing (QE) in October;
however, the timing of the first interest rate
hike will be heavily dependent on the Fed’s
interpretation of ongoing economic data
and remains a wild card for capital markets.
•
Throughout the latter part of 2014,
developed regions across the globe were
once again challenged by signs of slow
economic growth and disinflationary
pressures. International equities remained
volatile and the strengthening U.S. dollar
detracted from returns for U.S.-based
investors.
Ongoing stimulus efforts in those
regions should help support economic
growth, eventually boosting earnings
growth and equity prices for patient,
long-term investors.
•
After long-term interest rates moved
lower — contrary to expectations heading
into 2014 — room for additional downside
in yields is even more limited today. All
eyes remain on the Fed, as the timing,
magnitude, and pace of interest rate
hikes remain a question mark. Many bond
managers maintain a somewhat defensive
positioning against rising rates within their
portfolios, as higher rates seem to be the
path of least resistance.
•
Stocks followed a bumpier path in 2014,
following an extended period of
exceptionally low volatility, but appear
positioned to end the year on a positive note.
Given the backdrop of current valuations,
expectations for modest economic growth,
tepid inflation, and high profit margins,
we anticipate equity returns to be below
historical averages over a multiyear
timeframe.
Fundamentals and valuations are
likely to become an even greater focal point
for investors, particularly as the Fed eventually
shifts toward a more hawkish stance.
•
Following a multiyear bull market in equities,
interest rates near historical lows, and
modest inflation expectations, we remain
convinced that the case for broadening the
opportunity set beyond traditional stocks and
bonds is still strong. Alternative investments
should continue to play a role within
diversified portfolios for long-term investors.
•
As in previous years, our outlook for the
coming years is founded on economic and
market conditions, asset class valuations,
and other macro themes that may provide
either support or a headwind for the
capital markets. What cannot be easily
integrated into those views are the unknown
developments — positive or negative —
that will inevitably occur over time, altering
the expected path of the markets.
As such,
long-term investors are well advised to
remain patient and disciplined, maintain a
diversified investment approach consistent
with their risk tolerance, and maintain a
long-term view. Constructing a wellconceived portfolio and remaining
committed to one’s investment plan should
allow investors to stay the course, as they
travel along the road ahead.
1
. 2
2015 the road ahead
2014 revisited.
For equity investors, the first half of 2014
began where 2013 left off. Markets climbed
higher on earnings growth, rising confidence,
and generally positive economic data,
all of which helped fuel modest multiple
expansion in stocks and pushed broad
equity market indexes to all-time highs.
After the S&P 500 Index closed above
the 2,000 mark several times during
September, equity markets experienced
what some considered a long-awaited but
short-lived retrenchment. Volatility spiked
in October and erased much of the yearto-date gains achieved to that point. This
uptick in volatility was more pronounced
for riskier assets, such as small caps and
emerging-market equities, but wasn’t
limited to stocks alone.
Long-term Treasury
yields moved meaningfully over a matter
of days, and commodities were also hit.
Nonetheless, stocks quickly recaptured
those losses in subsequent trading days,
and many indexes not only recovered,
but ended the month even higher.
In what came as a surprise to most, longterm interest rates edged lower over
the course of much of the year, despite
moderate economic growth in the U.S. and
the unwinding of the Fed’s QE program,
which came to a close in October. After
starting the year at 3.0%, the 10-year
Treasury yield marched steadily lower,
breaching the 2% threshold briefly during
intra-day trading in mid-October, before
moving back to the 2.2% – 2.4% range.
The move in yields supported fixed-income
returns, but flew in the face of consensus
.
forging ahead
3
challenged many of these
nations, which triggered
expanded monetary policy
actions from the European
Central Bank and the Bank
of Japan. These factors
have contributed to
the downward push on
On the economic front, the
On the economic long-term Treasury yields
story remained relatively
and a stronger U.S. dollar.
front, the story
positive throughout the year,
While the potential exists
remained
despite the first-quarter dip.
that these global headwinds
Although fourth-quarter
relatively positive could impact the resilience
results have yet to be
of the U.S. expansion, positive
throughout the
released, the economy has
domestic forces suggest
year, despite the these influences should
grown at a pace of 3.5% or
first-quarter dip.
be limited. Furthermore,
better for four of the last
five quarters (based on
the bifurcated monetary
data available as this is being written,
policy initiatives across global central
but still subject to revision) — a sustained
banks can also provide opportunities
run that has not been previously achieved
for long-term investors.
in this choppy, lackluster recovery since
2009. Emboldened employers ramped up
hiring in 2014, as payroll growth expanded
at a robust pace and jobless claims reached
cyclical lows.
Consumer confidence rose
to post-recessionary highs, and surveys
Rate Expectations Diverge Past 2014
suggested the manufacturing sector was
5.00
solidly advancing, supporting strong GDP
4.50
growth during the middle quarters of the
4.00
year. Amid that strengthening, the Fed
3.50
3.00
ended its open market purchase program
2.50
in October, as widely expected, but
2.00
acknowledged that enough slack remains
1.50
1.00
to keep rates low well into 2015.
Fed Funds Rate (%)
expectations that longterm rates were more
likely to rise during 2014,
and proved challenging
for most fixed-income
managers who had positioned
themselves accordingly.
0.50
Conversely, other regions across the globe,
including Europe, Japan, and China,
have struggled with weakening growth.
Meanwhile, persistent disinflation has
0.00
2014
2015
Range of Fed Funds Rate Expectations
2016
Average Fed Funds Rate Expectations
Chart values are based on estimates from the FOMC as of September 17, 2014
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, PMFA
2017
Longer Run
.
4
2015 the road ahead
Navigating the road ahead in 2015.
The theme for this year’s piece is “Forging
Ahead,” a fitting tagline for where the
economy and capital markets currently stand
at this stage in the cycle — somewhere
between the expectations set by the runaway
optimism of a term such as full steam ahead,
but substantially more promising than the
so-called muddle-through economy
popularized in the wake of the great recession.
Certainly, from an economic standpoint, data
over the last year indicates the economy is
forging ahead. Whether or not the recent
strength is sufficient to allow the economy
to reach “escape velocity” — expanding
without the influence of accommodative
monetary policy — remains a question.
Current Fed policy is also aligned with the
“forge ahead” mentality, as the Federal
Open Market Committee remains focused
on gradually easing its way toward policy
normalization, while still providing sufficient
support to an economy that is recapturing
demand lost during the great recession.
The progress made to date has allowed the
Fed to cease its outright bond purchases,
as noted above. This exceptionally
accommodative policy has been winding
down since early 2014, with the Fed ending
the current round of quantitative easing
in October. Despite these changes, shortterm rates remain exceptionally low, and
the Fed is generally expected to stay
accommodative on that front until at least
midway through 2015.
However, recent
comments from various Fed governors
have suggested that persistently slow
growth internationally or financial instability
. forging ahead
Looking across the capital markets
landscape, there appear to be very few
Three Decades of Falling Rates
THREE
21.0
18.0
15.0
12.0
9.0
6.0
3.0
Fed Funds Effective Rate (%)
2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (%)
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve of St. Louis, PMFA
2012
2009
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
0.0
1979
Equities, although priced modestly above
the long-term average (on a P/E basis) as of
early November, remain reasonably valued
relative to current fixed-income yields.
Looking forward, equities generally appear
to offer attractive return characteristics
for investors with long-term time horizons
and should outperform cash and highquality bonds over a long-term timeframe.
As illustrated by the brief market swoon in
October, short-term results — even when
valuations are not exceptionally high — can
vary dramatically.
1976
Ultimately, the Fed continues to step
away slowly, while carefully gauging the
impact that tighter policy is likely to have
on economic growth and financial stability.
The central bank’s insistence on promoting
growth should still be a positive for the
economy, but the impact that monetary
policy may have on investment returns has
become increasingly murky.
Interest rates
remain extremely low — much lower than
appears warranted by recent growth in the
U.S. alone — which would still suggest that
the path of least resistance is for rates to
rise. As such, we believe investors should
remain conscious of interest-rate risk as
a potential threat to capital preservation
within fixed-income portfolios.
Particularly
for taxable bond investors, flexibility for
portfolio managers remains advisable.
“fat pitches” — tactical allocation opportunities
today where relative valuations are at
an extreme and are expected to revert
back toward historical norms. While we
constantly evaluate capital market valuations
and conditions to identify meaningful
opportunities to enhance returns (or reduce
risk when we don’t believe there is sufficient
value in taking that risk), we also understand
that a successful investment strategy
requires a framework that appropriately
aligns expected returns with one’s stated
tolerance for risk. As such, client portfolios
are generally positioned to reflect their
long-term strategic targets.
There’s no doubt
that volatility will eventually rear its ugly
head at some point in the future, creating
opportunities to make tactical adjustments.
The surge in volatility and the correction in
stock prices in October were brief reminders
of that. However, in the absence of a strong
conviction for tactical opportunities today,
we believe aligning portfolios to be generally
in line with their long-term strategic targets
remains prudent as we forge ahead into
2015 and beyond.
Yield (%)
domestically may result in a prolonged
timetable before the Fed embarks on its
tightening cycle.
5
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (%)
.
6
2015 the road ahead
Will 2015 be a turning point
in the interest rate cycle?
FIXED INCOME
For fixed-income investors, the much
anticipated increase in bond yields did not
come to pass in 2014. In fact, longer-term
yields steadily fell throughout the year;
the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury
began the year at 3%. Speculation around
the timing of a Fed decision to increase
the Fed funds rate caused markets to
behave reactively to the Fed’s messaging,
picking apart not only policy statements
from the central bank, but any comments
from its members that might provide
additional color on current thinking within
policymaking circles.
Despite the prospects for stronger
domestic economic growth, yields
continued to fall throughout the year.
As rate moves have historically often
presaged turning points in the actual
economy, declining Treasury yields caused
some investors and market observers to
question whether the expansion remained
on track.
Investor focus eventually turned
toward a variety of headwinds to higher
interest rates, including a low inflation
outlook, a global economic slowdown
and, given their comparatively low yields,
surprisingly strong demand for fixedincome investments. These issues are
likely to remain on the table into 2015
and may help keep rates lower than
what would be expected during a
more typical expansion — one free
from extraordinary measures such as
quantitative easing and policy rates
pushing against the zero bound.
. forging ahead
7
OUTLOOK &
STRATEGY
3.0
2.0
1.0
Fed Funds Effective Rate (%)
Implied by Fed Dots
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, PMFA
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0.0
2008
From an interest rate perspective, while
we anticipate rates to trend higher over a
secular (or long-term) horizon, the timing
and magnitude of a sustained upward
move in rates remain uncertain. While it
is impossible to accurately predict the
direction of interest rates in the short term,
it is possible that rates could remain low and
Percent (%)
in a somewhat narrow range.
The near-term direction for
rates will likely hinge on any
As we forge ahead into 2015,
action by the Fed to increase
the dispersion of potential
its policy rate or stand pat,
outcomes has seemingly
as well as the global appetite
become wider. Our long-term
for yield or, conversely, for
conviction about higher
Treasuries as a safe haven.
rates remains a primary
The chart below shows the
We can be
theme within fixed-income
potential direction of rates
portfolios, but diversification
certain that
and paints a clear picture of
continues to be an important
fixed-income
how the market’s implied path
factor.
markets are
of short-term rates differs
We anticipate that
from that of the Federal
priced for
uncertainty around the
Reserve.
In addition, during
greater volatility the past two Fed hiking cycles
bond market will persist.
in 2015.
The strong conviction of
in 1994 and 2004, increases
most market prognosticators
in short-term rates have been
was off target in 2014, and the outlook has
accompanied by higher long-term rates.
become increasingly murky. When will the
This provides support for implementing
Fed raise rates? Can the economy reach
bond portfolios with core bond strategies
“escape velocity”? Will global growth
with alpha-generating potential and
concerns persist? Will Treasuries remain
a modest allocation to more flexible
an attractive safe haven investment for
mandates that afford managers greater
foreign investors despite their low yields?
ability to meaningfully adjust their portfolio
Can inflation stay low even as the economy
structure and duration positioning.
gathers momentum and the expansion
matures? While the answers to these
Fed Funds Rate Projection
questions will eventually be answered, we
can be certain that fixed-income markets
4.0
are priced for greater volatility in 2015.
Market expectations as of Oct. 28, 2014
.
8
2015 the road ahead
The return of equity volatility.
EQUITIES
Volatility returned to equity markets in
2014 after nearly three years of a virtually
uninterrupted bull market. It seemed
a natural next step as this bull market
matured, valuations may have become a bit
extended, and various indexes continually
Market Volatility Re-emerges
30
2,000
S&P 500 Index
20
1,850
1,800
15
1,750
10
1,700
5
1,650
1,600
Oct 2013
S&P 500 Index
Jan 2014
Apr 2014
Jul 2014
VIX CBOE S&P Market Volatility Index
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve of St. Louis
Oct 2014
0
CBOE VIX Index
25
1,950
1,900
set new highs.
Biotech, social media, and
cloud computing stocks sold off sharply
from mid-March through April, weighing
on the broad market as well, but equity
investors subsequently shrugged off those
losses and pushed markets higher. Later
in the year, summertime complacency was
met with a renewed bout of instability in
stocks during September and October, as
oil — and commodity prices broadly —
declined in the face of diminished global
growth expectations.
Throughout the year, though, underlying
economic fundamentals in the U.S.
remained largely supportive for equities,
with solid GDP growth underpinned by
robust job creation and rising consumer
confidence. Outside of the U.S., it was a
.
forging ahead
different and varied picture. European
equities were dragged down by slowing
growth, especially in the second half of the
year, as the ECB contemplated a large scale
quantitative easing program. In Japan,
quantitative easing was expanded and
helped support Japanese equities while
weighing on the yen, making Japanese
exports cheaper for much of the world.
Emerging-market stocks rebounded early in
the year — after relative underperformance
during the prior two years — yet concerns
over potentially slowing global growth
and an increasing sense that long-term
growth expectations for the Chinese
economy should be curtailed weighed on
second-half returns.
Whereas 2013 equity performance was
driven mainly by an expansion in P/E ratios,
returns in 2014 were much more balanced
with earnings growth carrying its weight.
Valuations rose, though not to euphoric
levels, while earnings grew at a mid-to-high
single-digit pace, and revenues expanded
moderately. Profit margins remained
at historically high levels, begging the
question of when they may revert back
toward their long-term average.
We look
for further clarity around that issue, along
with other considerations surrounding
geopolitical events and global economic
growth, in the coming year.
OUTLOOK & STRATEGY
With the end of asset purchases by the
Fed that provided a strong tailwind for
equities in recent years, investors naturally
question what the end of QE will mean for
stocks. It is notable, though, that the Fed’s
zero interest rate policy remains in place
and should be supportive of equities and
other risk assets for some time to come.
Environments characterized by both low
inflation and interest rates have historically
tended to justify equity valuations above
their long-term average. While rising
interest rates have often presented a
short-term obstacle to stock returns, the
stronger growth that often accompanies
the rising rate cycle is generally supportive
of corporate earnings as well, and equities
have generally moved even higher after
that initial phase.
The past year saw fundamentals and
valuations become a greater factor in
driving equity market performance once
again.
Many companies that missed on
already reduced earnings or revenue
expectations saw their stock prices
punished by investors. As markets forge
ahead, we anticipate that equity returns
may be influenced to an even greater
degree by fundamentals, valuations, and
growth prospects.
Correlations across stocks were mixed in
2014, yet remain near long-term averages.
They generally fell through the summer as
volatility was low and complacency seeped
into equity markets. Yet, they increased
sharply during the sell-off in September
and October.
Higher correlations tend to
create a more challenging environment
for active managers to add value through
stock selection. Dispersion, meanwhile,
has remained low across developed
global equities. As an alternative to
9
.
10
2015 the road ahead
correlation, dispersion indicates how
different individual assets perform versus a
particular average — like that of an index.
It provides a way to measure the potential
value of stock selection by investment
managers. Higher dispersion signifies more
variation in returns, giving active managers
a better chance to demonstrate their stockpicking talent.
Our equity portfolios combine core index
holdings with satellite active managers to
construct a well-diversified exposure to
stocks. Index holdings provide low-cost,
broadly diversified equity exposure across
market capitalization and geography, while
high-conviction active managers bring
a proven ability to beat their respective
benchmarks over full market cycles. Across
traditional equities, we recommend a
modest overweight to international over
domestic equities on a relative valuation
basis, as well as for the potential of
developed non-U.S.
earnings to rebound
to previous highs set in 2007. Unlike in
Earnings Per Share – MSCI EAFE Index vs. MSCI USA Index
$180
$140
$80
Earnings Per Share
$160
$100
$120
$100
$60
$80
$40
$60
$40
$20
$20
$0
MSCI EAFE Index
MSCI USA Index
Source: JP Morgan, PMFA
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
$0
2003
Earnings Per Share
$120
the U.S., where corporate profit margins
have recovered strongly since 2009,
the ongoing economic malaise abroad,
most notably in Europe and Japan, has
suppressed profit margins and earnings
growth.
The European economy is far
from healed, but depressed profits point
to a value opportunity to be unlocked
in the years ahead for patient investors
with a long-term time horizon. In Japan,
after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe instituted
dramatic fiscal stimulus and monetary
easing in 2013, his “third arrow” aims to
spur growth with structural reforms like
increased immigration and encouraging
women to join the workforce. The Japanese
government also set a return on equity
target of 8% for public companies, pushing
them to become more profitable.
Domestically, we continue to favor the
relative value of large caps over their small
and mid-cap counterparts.
Despite the
comparative underperformance of small
caps over much of the year, large cap
valuations still appear more attractive.
In addition, large caps tend to be a bit
more defensive, with an ability to handle
more volatile equity markets as they tend
to have more multinational exposure
to diverse, global revenue streams.
Typically, they also are able to better
defend their profitability than smaller
companies by passing along higher costs
to their customers.
. forging ahead
Diversification beyond
stocks and bonds.
ALTERNATIVES
Over the past few years, traditional
investments — particularly domestic
stocks — have delivered absolute returns
that have exceeded investor expectations
and historical average returns. At the same
time, other parts of the capital markets
have trailed the robust returns of stocks.
Among those are cash, high-quality bonds,
and some alternative investments.
As is often the case when stocks perform
exceptionally well, some investors have
questioned the long-term benefits of
investing in alternatives, just as others may
question the benefit of investing in bonds
with yields at exceptionally low levels. We
continue to believe in the principles of
modern portfolio theory that convey simply
that the inclusion of alternative investments
should help to smooth the ride to a
targeted return goal over the long term.
Today, given the strong equity market
rally in recent years and persistently low
interest rates and low market expectations
for inflation, we feel strongly that investors
should not abandon their alternative
investments. Fundamentally, they still
exhibit the risk, return, and correlation
benefits that make them effective
diversifiers to a core portfolio of traditional
stocks and bonds.
In an optimized portfolio, alternative
investments may be alternatives to not only
equities, but to core fixed income as well.
As such, the measuring stick for evaluating
11
.
12
2015 the road ahead
considerations. With their expanded
alternatives shouldn’t be whether or not
flexibility and ability to profit on both long
they outperformed equities alone, just as
and short positions in their portfolios,
the value of investing in bonds shouldn’t
hedged equity strategies
be determined solely
still offer compelling risk/
on whether or not they
return characteristics
outperformed stocks in a
and remain an attractive
given period. The value
diversifier to a portfolio
provided by holding bonds
of core bonds and stocks.
or alternative investments
Moreover, a wide range
isn’t based on performance
Alternatives
of other alternative
alone; if it was, a portfolio
investments may merit
of stocks alone would
(just like bonds)
consideration for investors
almost always “win” over
can play a role
who seek to further
not only many relatively
diversify their portfolios
short periods, but the long
in a diversified
and have the ability to
term as well. Investors are
portfolio.
accept the often-higher
typically targeting a stated
investment minimums,
rate of return within risk
liquidity restrictions, and
constraints determined by
tax requirements.
their individual tolerance for
risk as summarized in their
investment policy.
Within
that context, alternatives
(just like bonds) can play a
role in a diversified portfolio
to position the portfolio
to achieve the investor’s
long-term return goal while
reducing portfolio risk.
Today, we still see value
in hedging strategies,
including liquid long/
short funds and traditional
multistrategy hedge funds,
for investors who meet
the minimum investment
requirements and are
comfortable with the
liquidity and tax reporting
. forging ahead
Change may be on the horizon,
but will it matter?
TAXES
The coming year holds the potential to
bring significant changes to tax policy. The
conclusion of the mid-term elections opens
a window of opportunity for legislative
action. Although 2014 was a year of little
change in the law, it was one of significant
adjustment for taxpayers as the full
impact of tax increases and the new net
investment income tax that were effective
for returns filed in 2014 were realized. Tax
efficiency in investments and business
entity selection are more important now
and will continue to be so in 2015.
Income
shifting to lower-income family members,
timing of gain and loss recognition, and
increasing levels of participation in family
business activities can all have positive
impacts on net, after-tax income.
Wealth transfer taxes are less significant
for the majority of families as the gift and
estate tax exclusion rises to $5.43M in 2015
(a combined $10.86M for married couples).
The rise in the exclusion amount has
shifted planning for most couples
to include efforts to take maximum
advantage of the step-up in basis for
assets included in the estate of a first
spouse to die, providing significant
income tax benefits to the surviving
spouse and family. Families with taxable
estates (above the exclusion amounts)
also benefit from the higher exclusion as it
expands opportunities for lifetime wealth
transfers that cannot only minimize estate
taxes for the current and next generation,
but for generations to come.
13
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2015 the road ahead
Moving forward in 2015 will initially
as the potential for tax reform is realized.
focus planning efforts on fully
What hasn’t changed is that those who
implementing changes to business,
take a wait and see approach run the risk of
investment, income tax,
paying more tax than those
and estate tax planning
who plan ahead. Even with
strategies that were
the uncertainty around how
made emergent by recent
tax policy may change in
changes in the tax laws.
the coming years, we urge
Regretfully, no
As the year unfolds, new
clients to forge ahead in a
one can predict
opportunities may arise
deliberate, informed manner.
the future. If we
could, investing
would be a
much easier
proposition.
. forging ahead
Preparing for the road ahead.
CONCLUSION
While the preceding pages have provided
support for our outlook on the path that
lies ahead, we’d be the first to acknowledge
that predictions about the future, regardless
of how interesting they may be, are still
nothing more than educated guesses. We
are reminded of the old tongue-in-cheek
rule about forecasting. While it’s fine to
opine about either a specific outcome or
a specific timeframe for some outcome,
one should never be specific on both. It’s
somewhat ironic that this is particularly
true over shorter periods for investing,
as market movements are exceptionally
unpredictable.
Of course, no one can
predict the future. If we could, investing
would be a much easier proposition, to
say the least. However, we continue to
believe it’s a healthy intellectual exercise
to contemplate potential outcomes and
consider how those outcomes should
influence portfolio strategy decisions.
Moreover, time may be the best friend
of patient investors, as fundamentals
tend to be much more meaningful to
the long-term market and portfolio
performance than to short-term results.
While “forging ahead” can have various
connotations, a more technical definition
for the word “forge” is the process of
forming or shaping metal by heating
and applying compressive forces.
By its
very nature, this practice produces two
powerful outcomes.
15
. 16
2015 the road ahead
markets, while longer-term
trends can be influenced
by exogenous factors and
“Forging ahead”
play out in unexpected
ways. Regardless of these
suggests
uncontrollable factors, we
• Second, it allows one to
that one stay
believe one of the most
manipulate its form into
focused on
critical determinants of
a desired output with
success is the underlying
those long-term
long-lasting results.
process behind the
objectives and
creation of one’s
This process is commonly
move forward
investment portfolio.
used in the creation
in a disciplined,
Utilizing a disciplined,
of components for
time-tested approach to
transportation equipment,
deliberate
portfolio construction
like planes, trains, and
manner toward
(much like the process
automobiles — where the
those goals.
of forging) can deliver a
strength and precision of
portfolio that is strong,
the individual components
enduring, and appropriately
are critical for an enduring
molded to each individual’s tolerance for
lifespan of the end product. Unfortunately,
risk and long-term goals and objectives.
today’s investment landscape cannot
be so easily manipulated to achieve a
What specifically the coming year may hold
desired outcome.
for investors remains to be seen. There
are many questions left unanswered, as is
A less literal interpretation of the term is
always the case in a dynamic world.
There
often associated with moving forward, or
is no formula that can be used to divine
making strong, steady progress toward
the future for the economy or the capital
a goal. In this sense, we believe that it is
markets. The key is to approach it with
very apropos to the topic at hand.
Most
investors have a number of goals, with most a well-conceived plan and maintain the
discipline and patience needed to stick to
being long term in nature. In that context,
that plan through turmoil, euphoria, and
“forging ahead” suggests that one stay
anything in between.
focused on those long-term objectives and
move forward in a disciplined, deliberate
Armed with those, we believe that investors
manner toward those goals.
are well positioned to reach their goals and
achieve success as they travel along the
The daily inflow of news can, at times,
road ahead.
materially influence the mood of investors
and the near-term direction of the capital
•
First, it strengthens the
metal significantly by
sealing cracks, minimizing
impurities, and improving
its overall integrity.
. Contributing authors
Jim Baird, CPA, CFP®, CIMA®
Chief Investment Officer
Eric Dahlberg
Senior Equity Analyst
Erin Goss, CFA, CAIASM, CIMA®, CFS®
Senior Alternative Investment Analyst
James Minutolo, JD
Senior Tax Manager
Tricia Newcomb, CIMA®
Senior Strategy Analyst
Paul Olmsted
Senior Fixed Income Analyst
Ed Rumler, CFA®
Alternative Investments Analyst
Contact us at: wealth.plantemoran.com
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Management Analyst ®.” Use of CIMA® or Certified Investment Management Analyst ® signifies that the user has successfully completed
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Member” or “Retired Member” by the CAIA Association®.
The Institute of Business and Finance owns the certification marks CFS® and
Certified Fund Specialist ®, which it awards to individuals who successfully complete its initial and ongoing certification requirements.
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