OBSERVATIONS ON THE
MUNI°BITES
MUNICIPAL BOND MARKET
JULY 2014
MARKET COLOR
»» Technical factors in the municipal market weakened slightly over the course of June as supply strengthened to $34 billion, bringing the yearto-date total issuance to about $150 billion, or 15% lower than last year. We continue to see net issuance near zero due to strong bond
redemptions in June and July.
»» Municipal credit dominated headlines as Puerto Rico proposed and signed the Puerto Rico Public Corporations Debt Enforcement and Recovery
Act, providing a clear path for certain public corporations to negotiate debt terms with bondholders or restructure debt with the approval of the
local court. In response, Moody’s issued multi-level credit downgrades to numerous Puerto Rico credits. The Commonwealth’s GO’s are now rated
B2.
»» The municipal market posted modest total return gains in June as the Barclays Municipal Bond Index returned 0.09% with year-to-date returns of
6.00%.
AAA benchmark municipal yields inched higher over the course of the month with the 5, 10, and 30 year maturity spots five, ten and two
basis points higher in yield, respectively.
FACTS & FIGURES
Weekly Municipal Mutual Fund Flows
WEEKLY MUNICIPAL MUTUAL FUND FLOWS
»» Municipal bond funds saw $880 million of inflows for
the month of June compared to $2.8 billion in May.
»» Continued positive fund flows, combined with light
new issue supply, have been supportive of the overall
municipal market and have contributed to the overall
outperformance for the year.
$2,000
Cumulative Fund Flows
Positive Weekly Fund Flow Change
Negative Weekly Fund Flow Change
10000000
5000000
$1,000
Fund Flow Change ($US MM)
»» Fund flows are been strong for the year with inflows
of over $5 billion as funds recover from the $38
billion of outflows seen in 2013.
$0
0
-5000000
-10000000
($1,000)
($2,000)
-15000000
-20000000
-25000000
($3,000)
($4,000)
-30000000
-35000000
-40000000
($5,000)
-45000000
1-13 2-13 3-13 5-13 6-13 7-13 9-13 10-13 12-13 1-14 2-14 4-14 5-14 7-14
STRATEGY THEMES
»» We are currently focusing on essential purpose revenue bonds that rely on identifiable and sustainable revenue sources that are generally
immune to economic swings. Examples are water, electric and toll revenue bonds.
»» Our sector allocations are based on fundamental research combined with relative value assessments. At the present time, we have identified
bonds in the hospital and transportation sectors that are especially attractive and have the potential for higher than average spread tightening.
»» Our yield curve management process involves positioning investments optimally in the most attractive spot on the maturity curve.
Currently, the
yield curve is quite steep and we favor bonds in the longer maturity range of a client’s benchmark where we can pick up additional yield.
»» Our overall duration is modestly defensive, so we are balancing some of the longer duration bonds with additional front end maturities and
floating rate structures.
»» We favor the “A” to “AA” rating category as these bonds are trading at favorable spreads not seen since before the credit crisis and the fall of
bond insurers.
LOS ANGE LES | BOSTON | LONDON | PARIS
PAYDEN.COM
. OBSERVATIONS ON THE
MUNI°BITES
MUNICIPAL BOND MARKET
JULY 2014
CHART OF THE MONTH
HOLDERS OF MUNICIPAL BONDS
IN $ TRILLIONS, 2013 DATA
Insurance Companies
467.4
13%
Other
126.7
3%
Individuals
1,617.2
44%
Banking Institutions
443.2
12%
Mutual Funds
1,016.8
28%
»» Individuals dominate the municipal market, representing well over half of all holders of municipal
bonds as of 2013.
»» Unique opportunities arise as many individual investors “follow the herd”. Disciplined investors can
take advantage of market mispricing when most other investors are exhibiting similar behavior and
avoiding underpriced (or seeking overpriced) securities.
LOS ANGE LES | BOSTON | LONDON | PARIS
PAYDEN.COM
.