October 2015
Commentary from Pacific Asset Management, the manager of Pacific Funds SM Fixed Income Funds.
It’s Not You, It’s Your Liquidity
Recent market volatility has once again shed light on the diminished liquidity environment for corporate bonds. Regulatory
uncertainty and evolving investor dynamics have resulted in some structural changes, with important implications for investors
and active managers. In this commentary, we review these changes and their potential impact on investors.
Bank deleveraging and dealer liquidity
Since 2007, dealer consolidation, bank deleveraging, and a
generally conservative risk appetite have led to tremendous
reductions in primary dealer positions. Because bonds do not
trade on exchanges like equity securities, bonds rely on a dealer
network to make a market.
Primary dealers are the designated
firms that are the securities broker-dealers that are permitted
to trade directly with the Federal Reserve System (the Federal
Reserve). This occurred at the same time credit markets have
expanded significantly (Chart 1), leading to less “two-way”
markets across the wide breadth of corporate debt securities.
Since peaking in 2007, primary dealer inventories have been
reduced by 90% (Chart 2). Recent revisions to the Federal
Reserve’s Weekly Report of Dealer Positions, which removed
non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from corporate
securities, shows dealer positions are even lower than previously
estimated.
One impact of this structural change was seen
this summer, as record mutual fund outflows led to increased
trading costs (wider bid-ask spreads).
Chart 1: Credit markets have expanded rapidly over
the past ï¬ve years
Due to the difficulties of replication, trading costs,
index turnover, fund flows, and the focus on the
largest issuers—high yield ETF’s have generally
underperformed active managers over short and long
term time periods.
Table 1: High yield bond ETF’s underperforming
Index
1 Year
3 Year
5 Year
iShares High Yield
ETF (HYG)
–3.69%
3.72%
6.48%
SPDR High Yield
ETF (JNK)
–5.38%
3.42%
6.28%
Markit iBoxx USD
–3.27%
Liquid High Yield Index
3.94%
6.67%
Barclays High Yield
Very Liquid Index
–3.91%
4.38%
7.32%
Barclays High Yield
Index
–2.93%
4.91%
7.34%
Morningstar High Yield
–3.23%
Peer Group Median
4.21%
6.37%
High Yield Cumulative Inflows
200
Source: Barclays, iShares, SPDR, Morningstar. Performance of
the iShare, SPDR ETFs, Morningstar are shown as total return
net of fees. All other performance measures are gross of fees.
As of August 31, 2015.
150
Billions ($)
Beta?
100
The two ETFs (HYG and JNK) were chosen to represent
high-yield ETFs because they are the two largest in their space.
50
0
–50
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Investment Company Institute, as of July 31, 2015.
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October 2015
Chart 2: Corporate Bond Positions of Primary Dealers
200
Billions ($)
150
100
Changing investor dynamics
50
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bloomberg, as of September 2015.
Deleveraging refers to the reduction of the leverage ratio, which is
a measure of the financial health of a company based on the amount
of debt the company has.
1
Regulatory uncertainty
The uncertainty surrounding various reforms such as The
Dodd-Frank Act, the Volcker Rule, and Basel III requirements
are further constraining capital market liquidity and trading.
The Dodd-Frank Act, signed into law in 2010 and containing
more than 850 pages and 15 million words, is one of the
most sweeping financial reforms in decades. However,
implementation is proving difficult (Chart 3).
Chart 3: Dodd-Frank remains ambiguous and complex.
Five years after signing into law, only 63% of the
rulemaking legislation has 247 (63.3%) have been met with finalized rules
Of the 390 total rulemaking requirements, been finalized.
Missed Deadline:
Proposed 46
Missed Deadline:
Not Proposed 33
Finalized: 247
Future Deadline:
Not Proposed 50
Future Deadline:
Proposed 14
While the uncertainty around regulatory reform has reduced
liquidity, the growth of the retail investor is requiring more of
it. Over the past five years, fixed income mutual funds
and ETFs, excluding money market funds, have seen
net inflows of over $1 trillion (Chart 4). Compared to
traditional buyers of corporate debt, such as pension plans
and insurance companies who frequently buy off-the-run
or more seasoned securities, retail funds typically require
higher degrees of liquidity.
Chart 4: The extraordinary growth of retail fixed-income
mutual funds and ETFs has increased demand for
liquidity, while structural and regulatory challenges
constrain liquidity
1,600
Cumulative Net Inflows into Fixed Income, Mutual Funds and ETFs
International Bond
High Yield Bond
Corporate Bond
Municipal Bond
Government Bond
1,400
1,200
Billions ($bn)
250
Bank deleveraging1 has led to reduced securities inventory
by dealers, reducing secondary market liquidity
The uncertainty of the Dodd-Frank Act regarding capital
requirements, derivatives, proprietary trading (Volcker Rule),
and market making activities has and continues to constrain
a bank’s willingness to commit capital for trading.
The results
are inventory reductions, unwinding of proprietary trading
desks, and decreasing human capital. While lawmakers recently
agreed to various Basel III capital requirements, the progress
on finalizing Dodd-Frank continues to be slow with final
legislation highly uncertain.
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Investment Company Institute, as of July 31, 2015.
Source: Davis Polk, as of July 2015.
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The substantial asset growth of fixed income ETFs also
has important influences on secondary market trading. The
ETF focus on larger issuers has led to tighter spreads during
periods of ETF inflows and, conversely, wider spreads during
periods of ETF outflows. While these ETFs have substantially
underperformed relative to major market indexes over the
long term (see table 1 on page 1), the ease of entry and exit
for investors means that ETF growth is likely to continue its
influence on secondary market trading.
Results of these forces on secondary
market liquidity
Reduced dealer inventories and increasing liquidity demands
have led to a concentration of trading into a narrower number
of issuers. These issuers, typically called “flow-names,” now
account for the majority of trading in corporate bonds.
The
concentration of liquidity has led to greater price volatility
across larger issuers. In times of credit weakness, larger issuers
will usually underperform, in many cases because they were
the most readily available to meet redemptions.
Another result of the changing liquidity dynamic is the
development of an order driven market, which had in the
past been used predominantly by the less liquid asset-backed
securities (ABS) and non-Agency MBS sectors. In an order
driven market, a seller/buyer of bonds sends out a list of
securities and sizes in which they wish to transact, usually
several days in advance.
A dealer would then work to fill the
order with counterparty.
Frequently called BWIC (Bids Wanted in Competition) or
OWIC (Offers Wanted In Competition), the benefit of this
type of transaction is greater price transparency and the
ability for a dealer to act only as broker, without having to
take inventory onto their diminished balance sheets. The
negative is that it reinforces the idea that, in some cases,
there may not be enough bonds to meet demand. This
forces many asset managers, notably those with significant
assets under management, to increase their number of
holdings across strategies in order to be fully invested.
The structural, regulatory, and investor dynamics discussed
are in our view part of a longer term trend of diminishing
liquidity.
For asset managers focused on credit, understanding
the inter-relationships of these forces on secondary market
trading is an important part of portfolio management. In
many cases the opportunities lie in identifying how these
structural trends affect individual capital structures and
sectors. For example, due to the concentration of liquidity
into the largest issuers, this provides an opportunity of
evaluating smaller issuers, which may have sound credit
fundamentals, but are passed over by many ETF and mutual
fund investors.
The influence of ETFs may also lead to
arbitrage opportunities where those parts of the issuing
company’s capital structure owned by ETFs may be more
volatile than those that are not.
Selectivity leads to outperformance
For many large firms, the ability to employ bottom-up
security selection in a constrained liquidity environment
can be hindered. These asset managers are often forced
to hold hundreds, and sometimes thousands, of individual
bonds in order to be fully invested and maintain liquidity.
This has been shown empirically to minimize the effect
of security selection in attribution. For bond focused
strategies, we believe selectivity is a key to outperformance,
and manageable assets under management are key to
selectivity.
At Pacific Asset Management, our size
continues to be a competitive advantage in navigating
today’s liquidity environment.
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iShares High Yield ETF (HYG) refers to the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF which tracks a market-weighted
index of U.S. high-yield/high-risk corporate debt.
SPDR High Yield ETF (JNK) refers to the SPDR® Barclays High Yield Bond ETF which seeks to provide investment
results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Barclays High Yield
Very Liquid Index.
Barclays High Yield Index refers to the Barclays U.S. High-Yield Index, which covers the universe of fixed rate,
non-investment-grade debt.
Barclays High Yield Very Liquid Index includes publicly issued U.S. dollar denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate,
taxable corporate bonds that have a remaining maturity of at least one year, are rated high-yield, and have $600 million or
more of outstanding face value.
Markit iBoxx USD Liquid High Yield Index includes liquid U.S.
dollar-denominated, high yield corporate bonds for
sale in the United States.
The Morningstar High Yield category includes funds with at least 65% of assets in bonds rated below BBB.
About Pacific Asset Management
Founded in 2007, Pacific Asset Management specializes in credit-oriented fixed-income strategies. Pacific Asset Management is
a division of Pacific Life Fund Advisors LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser and a wholly owned subsidiary of Pacific Life
Insurance Company (Pacific Life). As of September 30, 2015, Pacific Asset Management managed approximately $5.59 billion.
Assets managed by Pacific Asset Management include assets managed at Pacific Life by the investment professionals of Pacific
Asset Management.
This publication is provided by Pacific Funds.
These views represent the opinions of Pacific Asset Management, and are presented
for informational purposes only. These views should not be construed as investment advice, the offer or sale of any investment,
or to predict performance of any investment. All material is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot
be guaranteed.
The opinions expressed herein are based on current market conditions, as of October 2015, and are subject to
change without notice.
All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Past performance does not guarantee future
results. Bank loan, corporate securities, and high-yield/high-risk bonds involve risk of default on interest and principal payments
or price changes due to changes in credit quality of the borrower, among other risks.
You should carefully consider an investment’s goals, risks, charges, strategies, and expenses.
This and other information
about Pacific Funds are in the prospectus and/or applicable summary prospectus available from your financial advisor
or by calling (800) 722-2333, option 2. Read the prospectus and/or summary prospectus carefully before investing.
Pacific Life Fund Advisors LLC (PLFA), a wholly owned subsidiary of Pacific Life Insurance Company, is the investment advisor to the Pacific Funds.
PLFA also does business under the name Pacific Asset Management and manages certain funds under that name.
Effective December 31, 2014, Pacific Life Funds and its family of mutual funds changed its name to Pacific Funds. In addition, individual funds were also
renamed.
For more information, please visit www.PacificFunds.com.
Mutual funds are offered by Pacific Funds. Pacific Funds are distributed by Pacific Select Distributors, LLC (member FINRA & SIPC), a subsidiary
of Pacific Life Insurance Company (Newport Beach, CA), and are available through licensed third-party broker/dealers. Pacific Funds refers to
Pacific Funds Series Trust.
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P.O.
Box 9768, Providence, RI 02940-9768
(800) 722-2333, Option 2 • www.PacificFunds.com
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