December 2015
Commentary from Pacific Asset Management, the manager of Pacific Funds SM Fixed-Income Funds.
High-Yield: Relative Value
or Falling Knife?
Portfolio Manager Viewpoints
Concerns around global growth are increasing due to a
variety of factors, creating greater uncertainty and volatility.
In this commentary, Portfolio Managers Michael Marzouk,
Brian Robertson, and David Weismiller discuss Pacific Asset
Management’s views and outlook on the credit markets.
Key Takeaways
For the first time in market history, U.S. high yield may
post a negative total return for a calendar year while the
S&P 500 ® posts a positive return. The debate is whether
high yield is offering attractive value or predicting more
market weakness.
Energy and the Metals/Mining sectors, which represent
17% of the high-yield index, now yield over 13%. This
has driven yields to over 8% within the asset class.
16
To begin, can you please assess
the current macro environment?
12
Robertson: “Divergence” is a fitting word.
Diverging central
Table 1: Underwhelming returns thus far in 2015
Index/Asset Class
2015 YTD Total Return (%)
S&P 500
Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities
Treasury
Aggregate
Bank Loans
Corporate
High-Yield
®
3.01
1.54
1.01
0.88
0.57
0.10
-2.00
Source: Barclays, Credit Suisse, and S&P as of November 30, 2015.
See end note for explanation of terms.
8
4
0
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2015
Source: Barclays, as of November 30, 2015.
High-yield spreads crossing 600 basis points (bps) have
typically been associated with recessions. This is also
reflective of a large amount of bad news being priced in.
2,000
1,800
Barclays High Yield Index OAS (bps)
bank policies, economies, growth outlooks, and company
performance have defined 2015. Recently, global risks have
impacted markets as the U.S.
dollar has rallied, commodities
have fallen further, many companies’ third-quarter earnings
reports have disappointed, and capital flows have reversed
course from the emerging world to the U.S. This volatility has
led to a lackluster return environment across most asset classes
so far in 2015 (Table 1).
High-Yield–Yield to Worst (%)
High-Yield–Energy Yield to Worst (%)
High-Yield–Metals/Mining Yield to Worst (%)
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: Barclays, as of November 30, 2015.
12/15
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. December 2015
Specific to the credit markets, can you
describe performance?
What does your Fed outlook mean for
Treasury yields?
Weismiller: Credit markets have generated below-coupon
Robertson: While short-term Treasury rates may be
results due to a few factors. First, heightened risk aversion
and concerns toward the credit cycle have impacted valuations.
Second, and a bit specific to investment grade, has been
the record-setting new issuance driven by the Mergers and
Acquisitions (M&A) wave. This has placed upward pressure
on corporate spreads as the market digests a record $1.4
trillion+ in issuance. Third, issuer-specific concerns within
healthcare, media/cable, and telecommunications have
put downward pressure on prices.
Lastly, weakness in
commodity-related sectors has affected returns. While
the commodity epicenter has been in high-yield, corporate
bonds and bank loans have not been immune from the drag
of commodities on total returns (Table 2).
influenced by Fed policy, intermediate- and longer-maturity
bonds are driven more by U.S. economic data and the global
investment opportunity set.
Generally, higher Treasury yields are
in response to higher nominal growth rates, something that
continues to escape this economic cycle. Additionally, low
sovereign rates globally have helped keep downward pressure
on U.S. Treasury yields.
In a 2% U.S. gross domestic product
environment with global growth and inflation concerns, Treasury
yields may remain in the current range for an extended period.
Table 2: Commodity sectors have impacted total returns1
Index/Asset Class
2015 Total Return (%)
High-Yield
ex-Energy & Metals/Mining1
–2.00
0.74
Corporate
ex-Energy & Metals/Mining1
0.10
0.53
Bank Loans
ex-Energy & Metals/Mining1
0.57
1.61
December 2014 saw significant volatility;
how are you viewing this December?
Marzouk: The December 16 Fed decision, global growth
concerns, terrorism, weakening earnings, and the notoriously
poor liquidity conditions of year-end are all potential catalysts
for volatility. From a top-down perspective, our process has
been to reduce our risk scores during the past several months,
which determine our yield and spread targets.
Whether or
not volatility materializes, we are ready to allocate to risk
should opportunities present themselves.
High-yield bonds have particularly
underperformed; can you discuss the outlook?
Source: Barclays and Credit Suisse, as of November 30, 2015.
Robertson: The Barclays U.S. High-Yield Index is on
T
he table reflects year-to-date returns for various asset classes if the
Energy Sector and Metals/Mining Sector are removed.
pace to produce its first negative total return since 2008,
which is a rare event outside of U.S. recessions.
It is also
unprecedented to have a positive S&P 500 index return and
a negative high-yield return in the same calendar year. The
weakness in high-yield is mainly due to a lack of risk appetite
and the exposure to commodities (Energy and Metals/Mining
sectors are 17% of the that index—see Table 2).
1
December may see the long-awaited start
to the Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening
cycle; what’s your view on the Fed?
Weismiller: Whether or not the Fed chooses to raise the
federal funds (fed funds) target rate in December, we may see
an exceptionally low funds rate for years to come. The Fed
continues to express concern toward what we refer to as the
“third mandate.” Essentially this means that U.S.
monetary
policy is impacted by the interdependence of tightening
financial conditions, growth environments, and market stress
abroad. It is our opinion that the past few months of growing
global-growth risks mean there is a limited amount of policy
tightening the Fed would enact. While a neutral fed funds
target rate may have been 4% prior to 2008, it is more likely
1% to 2% today.
The softness in high yield started the year by being mainly
concentrated in companies with exposure to commodities
that would be impacted by a strengthening U.S.
dollar. This
weakness broadened later in 2015 due to concerns around
the credit cycle. Companies with troubled balance sheets,
deteriorating profit outlooks, or the need to access capital
markets have seen sharp drops in prices.
The dispersion of
both issuer and sector performance is the highest it has been
post-2008. The lack of risk appetite can be seen by the gap in
yields among non-investment-grade bonds, such as between
BB-rated and CCC-rated bonds (Chart 1).
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. December 2015
Chart 1: The lack of risk appetite is evident in the yield
gap between a BB-rated and lower-rated CCC-rated
bonds, the largest since 2009
20
Marzouk: Bank loans are a risk diversifier in a fixed-income
Yield Differential between
CCC-Rated and BB-Rated Bonds (%)
18
allocation. Loans diversify the duration risk of traditional fixed
income or the more equity-like risk of high yield. In 2013,
floating-rate mutual funds saw a record $63 billion inflow on
the back of interest-rate concerns. Since then, 2014 and 2015
have seen outflows of $38 billion (Source: Lipper).
Investors
should evaluate loans for their portfolios as a diversifier
to traditional fixed income and not just as an interest-rate
hedge.
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Barclays, as of November 30, 2015.
Barclays uses the middle credit ratings of Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch.
When a rating from only two agencies is available, the lower is used.
When only one agency rates a bond, that rating is used. Ratings are
measured on a scale that generally ranges from AAA (highest) to D
(lowest).
High-yield spreads may tighten in the medium term, although
volatility is likely to remain high given potential near-term
headwinds. Valuations appear to already be pricing in a lot
of bad news (Chart 2).
With spreads currently sitting around
600 basis points, this has traditionally been associated with
recessionary periods. However, we believe recession risk is
low in the U.S., predominately due to the strength of the U.S.
consumer. Therefore, the risk of large-scale defaults from the
Energy and Metals/Mining sectors spilling over to the broader
market is low.
The lack of contagion risk from commodities
along with a gradual pace of Fed tightening would be
supportive of valuations in high yield.
Chart 2: High yield is pricing in a lot of bad news
16
Bank loans continue to see outflows in
2015. What is the investment rationale for
the asset class?
High-Yield–Yield to Worst (%)
High-Yield–Energy Yield to Worst (%)
High-Yield–Metals/Mining Yield to Worst (%)
The recent weakness has placed average dollar prices below
$93 (Chart 3) and yields approaching 7%. These are price
levels not seen since 2011.
Low dollar prices are particularly
attractive given price appreciation in loans is generally capped
at par. Along with limited commodity-related exposure (5%
index exposure versus 17% for high yield), we feel bank loans
may well be positioned for above-coupon returns in 2016.
What risks specific to bank loans do you
see in the short term?
Marzouk: Collateralized loan obligations (CLO) issuance
and the changing regulatory environment around Dodd-Frank
risk-retention could negatively impact CLO issuance. 2012
through 2015 has seen strong CLO issuance, supportive
of technicals as CLOs represented more than 50% of the
buyers of new issuance of bank loans (Source: Thomson
Reuters).
In 2017, the Dodd-Frank risk-retention rules will
go into effect, requiring issuers of CLOs to retain 5% of
new deals. This could be a headwind for CLO issuance, in
particular toward smaller or independent CLO managers.
We have already seen a slowdown in issuance during the past
six months, and lower CLO issuance could lead to a weaker
technical for the asset class.
12
8
4
0
2013
2013
2014
2014
Source: Barclays, as of November 30, 2015.
2015
2015
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Chart 3: Bank loan prices have fallen to 2011 levels
Average Dollar Price of the
Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index ($)
105
100
95
90
85
80
2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015
Source: Credit Suisse, as of November 30, 2015.
We have not discussed Europe, which
dominated many of your viewpoints over
the past few years.
Weismiller: The long-term structural challenges to the
Euro experiment remain, though the stabilization of yields has
mitigated short-term systemic risk. Longer term, we may see
market volatility return, given the Euro project’s challenges
not just for the financial and banking issues, but also the
Schengen agreement and the free movement of people within
the European Union. We are underweight Euro-centric
companies and revenues, given a poor growth outlook and
relative value compared to U.S. credit.
We hold limited to
no exposure to European banks and financials.
Can you discuss your asset allocations and
portfolio positioning?
Can you summarize your views and outlook?
Robertson: In our high-yield portfolios, we have recently
many asset classes, given global growth concerns, inconsistent
company performance, poor technicals, and diverging
central banks. These factors have all contributed to the
underperformance of credit-related asset classes relative
to government bonds. While credit markets may remain
volatile in the near term, many asset classes appear to be
beginning to price in a significant amount of bad news.
With
high dispersion of issuers, we believe active management and
security selection are what will drive results. Given the shape
of the U.S. consumer and domestically focused companies,
relative valuations may provide an attractive entry point as
the calendar turns toward 2016.
been reducing our risk scores and thus our spread targets due
to the current headwinds.
We have seen some security-specific
opportunities created due to the recent risk aversion in
combination with the low-liquidity backdrop. We have been
focused more on U.S. consumer sectors and have been
underweight the Energy and Metals/Mining sectors relative
to the benchmarks.
Weismiller: Within our investment-grade strategies, the
overall asset allocation and credit quality have been fairly
consistent in 2015.
However, as Brian commented, we have
been very active at the individual-name level seeking to mitigate
M&A risk as well as companies who may be on path for
downgrades. We emphasize BBB-rated companies with a
focus on domestic earnings and cash flows. For the strategies
that can use high-yield and bank loans, we have had a greater
weighting toward bank loans.
However, we are beginning
to see high-yield as more attractive, given the movement
in spreads and yield.
Robertson: 2015 has seen underwhelming returns across
Pacific Asset Management
December 1, 2015
Marzouk: For bank loans, we are overweight relative to the
benchmark for those sectors focused on the U.S. consumer,
including Paper/Packaging, Gaming/Leisure, Retail, and Service.
Regarding the Energy and Metals/Mining sectors, we advocate
caution and significant underweights to the sectors. We believe
the ongoing fundamental challenges and distressed situations
may put further pressure on commodity companies.
Specific
to the bank-loan strategy, we hold no exposure to the Energy
sector and are underweight Metals/Mining.
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. December 2015
Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (Agency MBS) is based on the Barclays Mortgage-Backed Securities Index, which
is a market value-weighted index composed of agency mortgage-backed passthrough securities of the Government National
Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae), the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan
Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) with a minimum $150 million par amount outstanding and a weighted-average maturity
of at least one year.
Aggregate is based on the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which is composed of approximately 7,000 asset-based,
corporate, government, and mortgage-backed bonds.
Bank Loans is based on the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index, which is designed to mirror the investable universe of the
U.S. dollar-denominated leveraged loan market.
Basis Points (bps): One basis point equals 0.01%.
Corporate is based on the Barclays U.S. Corporate Index, which includes publicly issued U.S.
corporate and specified foreign
debentures and secured notes that meet the specified maturity, liquidity, and quality requirements. To qualify, bonds must be
registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
High-Yield is based on the Barclays U.S. High-Yield Index, which covers the universe of fixed-rate, non-investment-grade debt.
The Schengen Agreement led to the creation of Europe’s borderless Schengen Area: 26 European countries that have
abolished passport and any other type of border patrol at their common borders.
The treaty was signed on June 14, 1985.
S&P 500 is based on the S&P 500 index, which is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used
as a proxy for the stock market. S&P 500 is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC.
Treasury is based on the Barclays U.S. Treasury Index, which includes public obligations of the U.S.
Treasury.
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About Pacific Asset Management
Founded in 2007, Pacific Asset Management specializes in credit-oriented fixed-income strategies. Pacific Asset Management is
a division of Pacific Life Fund Advisors LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. As of September 30, 2015, Pacific Asset
Management managed approximately $5.59 billion. Assets managed by Pacific Asset Management include assets managed at
Pacific Life by the investment professionals of Pacific Asset Management.
This publication is provided by Pacific Funds.
These views represent the opinions of Pacific Asset Management and are presented
for informational purposes only. These views should not be construed as investment advice, the offer or sale of any investment,
or to predict performance of any investment. All material is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot
be guaranteed.
The opinions expressed herein are based on current market conditions, as of December 2015, and are subject to
change without notice.
All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Past performance does not guarantee future
results. Bank loan, corporate securities, and high-yield/high-risk bonds involve risk of default on interest and principal payments
or price changes due to changes in credit quality of the borrower, among other risks.
You should carefully consider an investment’s goals, risks, charges, strategies, and expenses.
This and other information
about Pacific Funds are in the prospectus and/or applicable summary prospectus available from your financial advisor
or by calling (800) 722-2333, option 2. Read the prospectus and/or summary prospectus carefully before investing.
Pacific Life Fund Advisors LLC (PLFA) is the investment advisor to the Pacific Funds. PLFA also does business under the name Pacific Asset
Management and manages certain funds under that name.
Mutual funds are offered by Pacific Funds.
Pacific Funds are distributed by Pacific Select Distributors, LLC (member FINRA & SIPC), a subsidiary of
Pacific Life Insurance Company (Newport Beach, CA), and are available through licensed third parties. Pacific Funds refers to Pacific Funds Series Trust.
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Mailing address:
P.O. Box 9768, Providence, RI 02940-9768
(800) 722-2333, Option 2 • www.PacificFunds.com
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