leadership series
MARCH 2016
High-Yield Bond Funds
in a Diversified Portfolio
AUTHOR
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• The addition of high-yield bonds as a long-term
investment in a diversified portfolio can potentially
enhance a portfolio’s risk-and-return prospects.
• The power of high yield can be attributed to its
hybrid traits of offering a yield premium and the
potential for capital appreciation.
• In our view, credit selection—the overwhelming
source of risk in a high-yield bond portfolio—is
best managed with an active strategy based on
intensive research focused on identifying and
valuing credit risk.
• There is a diverse spectrum of high-yield bond fund
management styles for investors to consider relative
to their goals and risk tolerances.
Matt Conti
Portfolio Manager
Michael Cheng
Quantitative Analyst
Scott Mensi
Director, Investment Product
. leadership series
MARCH 2 016
Understanding high yield
The potential benefit of adding HY bonds to a portfolio of
stocks and IG bonds can be attributed to the asset’s hybrid
traits—a combination of bond-like and stock-like performance characteristics, which are apparent when comparing
the correlation of HY against stocks and also against IG
bonds (Exhibit 1). For example, HY bonds have had a negative correlation with 10-year Treasury bonds, and a marginally
positive correlation with IG bonds as represented by the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. In terms of correlation with
stocks, the figures were higher, at 0.62.
Of course, for those
HY bond funds that invest in stocks, the potential correlations
with stocks would be higher.
When investors wisely use their goals and time horizon to
guide their investment selections, it typically results in a
portfolio of investments with each holding offering distinctive
risk-and-return characteristics. For example, in a diversified
portfolio, a stock allocation may make sense given its potential for growth, and in some instances growth and income.
Investment-grade (IG) bonds are often included for their
historically low volatility relative to equities, diversification
properties, and income potential. In many diversified portfolios, broadening the bond allocation to include high-yield
(HY) bonds can potentially deliver another facet of income
and capital appreciation that can diversify equity and IG
bond exposure while at the same time enhance a portfolio’s
opportunity for income.
Exhibit 1 Imperfect correlations with stocks and IG bonds can make HY bonds an effective diversifier
CORRELATION MATRIX: JAN.
1994 TO DEC. 2015
U.S. Equity
High Yield
Bank Loan
EmergingMkt.
Debt
Investment
Grade
10-Year
Treasury
U.S. Equity
1.00
High Yield
0.62
1.00
Bank Loan
0.42
0.76
1.00
Emerging-Market Debt
(EMD)
0.53
0.53
0.26
1.00
Investment Grade
0.04
0.25
(0.02)
0.35
1.00
10-Year Treasury
(0.18)
(0.08)
(0.32)
0.17
0.91
1.00
0.03
(0.06)
(0.02)
0.03
0.12
0.06
T-Bill
T-Bill
1.00
The Correlation Matrix reveals the strength of return relationships between investments. A perfect linear relationship is represented by a correlation of 1,
while a perfect negative relationship has a correlation of –1.
A correlation of 0 indicates no relationship between the investments. Correlation is a critical
component to asset allocation and can be a useful way to measure the diversity of a portfolio. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or
guarantee against loss.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Fidelity Investments. Monthly returns from Jan.
1994 to Dec. 2015. (EMD
index started Jan.
1994.) U.S. equity: S&P 500 Index; High Yield: BofA ML U.S. Cash Pay High Yield Index; Bank Loan: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index;
Emerging-Market Debt: JP Morgan EMBI Global Index; Investment Grade: Barclays U.S.
Aggregate Bond Index; 10-Year Treasury: BofA ML Current 10-Year
U.S. Treasury Index; T-Bill: Citigroup 3-Month Treasury Bill Index. See endnotes for index definitions.
2
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HIGH-YIELD BOND FUNDS IN A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO
To demonstrate how the characteristics of an HY allocation
might influence the risk and return of a portfolio, we created
two hypothetical portfolios and analyzed their results for two
periods—10 years and 31 years ending Dec. 2015.1
The first portfolio had an allocation of 60% equities and 40%
IG bonds. The second portfolio had allocations to equities
and IG bonds as well as a weighting in HY. As shown in
Exhibit 2, the risk and return of the portfolios that included
stocks and IG bonds was enhanced with an allocation to HY
bonds in both periods.
The significant features of HY bonds that helped drive these
outcomes were yield premium and the potential for capital
appreciation.
Yield premium: key return feature of HY bonds
Depending on a company’s financial circumstances, it can
issue debt in the IG market or the HY market.
When a company’s financial circumstances require it to seek financing
in the HY market, investors demand that the coupon on the
debt reflect the company’s prospects for debt repayment—
hence the asset’s yield premium.
This is a key feature of HY performance. Since 1985, the HY
bond market, as measured by the Bank of America Merrill
1 Thirty-one years reflects the life of the BofA ML U.S. Cash Pay High
Yield Index.
Exhibit 2 Adding HY bonds to a diversified portfolio may raise return potential while lowering risk*
January 2006–December 2015
November 1984–December 2015
Portfolio Annualized Total Return (%)
Portfolio Annualized Total Return (%)
7.5
11.0
100%
S&P 500
Add 20%
HY Allocation
7.0
100%
S&P 500
10.5
Add 20%
HY Allocation
10.0
6.5
60% S&P 500
40% Barclays Agg.
6.0
9.5
60% S&P 500
40% Barclays Agg.
9.0
5.5
8.5
5.0
8.0
4.5
4.0
7.5
100% Barclays Agg.
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
Portfolio Risk (%)
13
14
15
16
7.0
100% Barclays Agg.
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
Portfolio Risk (%)
13
14
15
16
*Allocations are for illustrative purposes only.
The ideal HY allocation in a portfolio may vary significantly based on an investor’s age and investment goals,
among other factors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. These charts reflect the results of hypothetical portfolios and are for illustrative
purposes only.
Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Index performance includes the reinvestment of dividends
and interest income. While indexes can provide insight on how asset classes have performed during historical market cycles, they do not take into account
key factors such as portfolio expenses or portfolio manager investment decisions, and should not be considered representative of how a portfolio has, or will,
perform.
Annualized total return and portfolio risk (annualized standard deviation) figures are based on monthly returns annualized. Source: Fidelity Investments, as of Dec. 31, 2015.
HY: BofA ML U.S. Cash Pay High Yield Index (HY); U.S. equity (EQ): S&P 500 Index; IG: Barclays U.S.
Aggregate Bond Index
(IG). See endnotes for underlying data and index definitions.
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Lynch Cash Pay HY Index, has not posted two consecutive
calendar years of negative performance. In fact, there have
been only six years of negative returns during the past 31
years. This can be attributed in part to the relatively large
average historical coupon payment of 6% to 7% that has typically distinguished HY bonds. The income component has
contributed a source of return, or cushion, when bond prices
have declined or interest rates have risen (Exhibit 3).
potential for an HY bond—albeit typically capped at par if
held to maturity and therefore asymmetric—as well as its
downside risk, can be more similar to that of a stock than
an IG bond.
While HY bond yields can be additive to total return performance, it is significant to note that their levels reflect a
company’s degree of leverage.
Reaching for yield does not
necessarily mean a positive outcome—income is not outcome. Without thorough credit analysis and issue selection,
price declines can overwhelm income.
The bifurcated return potential for HY—coupon income and
potential price change—can be seen in different economic
environments (Exhibit 4). From 1995 through mid-2015, the
asset generated healthy income returns that more than offset
minor price declines when GDP was negative and when it
ranged from only zero to two percent.
Even in slow-growth
environments, HY bonds posted strong performance. This
is largely due to the compounding of relatively high income
payments as well as bond prices bolstered by favorable fundamentals of stable free cash flows available to service debt.
Potential for capital appreciation
An HY company’s leverage intensifies its bond’s sensitivity to
enhanced or deteriorating cash-flow prospects. The upside
Active management is key in HY investing
Credit risk is the largest source of risk in an HY bond fund—
in our estimation, 80% of a fund’s total portfolio risk.
Active
Exhibit 3 Negative annual returns for HY have not been
common
Exhibit 4 U.S. HY in various economic environments,
Oct. 1986 to Sep.
2015
Annual High Yield Total Return (%)
70
Annualized Return
12%
60
10%
Income Return
BofA ML U.S. Cash
Pay HY Index Total Return
50
40
6%
30
4%
20
8.14%
5.37%
Total Return
0%
0
–3%
–10
–4%
–20
–6%
–30
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This chart is for illustrative
purposes only and does not represent actual or future performance of any
investment option.
Index performance includes the reinvestment of dividends
and interest income. Securities indices are not subject to fees and expenses
typically associated with investment funds. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.,
as of Dec.
31, 2015.
4
8.45%
2%
10
–40
9.42%
8%
Price Return
Contraction
Slow Growth
Expansion
All Periods
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.
Performance represented by the BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Index
from Oct.
1986 through Sep. 2015. NBER defines slow growth as GDP
from 0% to 2%, expansion as GDP more than 2%.
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HIGH-YIELD BOND FUNDS IN A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO
management may be the best approach for managing this
significant risk, because it creates a portfolio of intentional
holdings based on informed assessments of HY issuers.
With a wide dispersion among HY bond sector returns, active
managers have the potential to generate excess returns
by overweighting some sectors and underweighting others
relative to the benchmark index. Active management can
exploit compelling HY bond investment opportunities as the
economic cycle and bond valuations evolve (Exhibit 5). [Of
course, it is also possible an active manager could underperform a passive benchmark index or strategy.]
In contrast, the composition of a passively managed portfolio
is intended to replicate the exposures and performance of
a benchmark index, which does not reflect an active fund
manager’s assessment of intrinsic value (see “Limitations of
Passive HY Investing,” page 6).
Exhibit 5 Variability in sector performance affords
opportunities for active managers
Exhibit 6 Diversified universe of HY securities offers
broad opportunity set
%
60
Calendar Year Total Returns (%)
100
NBER Recession Periods:
Mar 2001–Nov 2001
Dec 2007–Jun 2009
B
197.6%
Range of HY
Sector Returns
80
Selecting an HY bond fund
Not all HY bond funds have the same risk-and-return profiles.
The HY bond universe of securities lends itself to varying
investment objectives. It is made up of issues reflecting a
myriad of credit conditions, as is seen in the spectrum of
credit qualities in the market—BB, B, CCC—that reflect varying degrees of risk related to repayment of the debt (Exhibit 6).
There is diversity in HY funds’ objectives including funds with
a majority of BB-rated holdings, others with shorter durations,
funds that can invest across a company’s capital structure,
and some that offer broad-based market exposure (Exhibit 7).
With such a variety of fund offerings, investors should look
for, and be able to find, a fund that aligns with their risk tolerance and return goals.
50
BB, 48.4
HY Index
Returns
60
40
40
B, 38.7
BB
30
20
20
0
CCC and below
CCC, 12.9
10
–20
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Source: Fidelity Investments, Bloomberg Finance L.P., BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. Cash Pay High
Yield Index, as of Dec. 31, 2015.
Dec-14
Dec-12
Dec-10
Dec-08
Dec-06
Dec-04
Dec-02
Dec-00
Dec-98
0
Dec-96
2015
2013
2014
2012
2010
2011
2007
2008
2009
2006
2003
2004
2005
2001
2002
1999
2000
1997
1998
-68.1%
–40
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch U.S.
High Yield Index, as of Dec. 31, 2015.
Ratings percentages are averages of Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch ratings.
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Limitations of passive HY investing:
A passively managed portfolio maintains the industry allocations
that closely mimic that of its benchmark index (see “Isn’t the HY
Market All about Energy?” page 7). In other words, the sector allocations of a passive index fund are based on the current proportions of various industries within the benchmark—rather than on
an active assessment of the merits of any one industry relative to
another.
• Passive ETFs often have to hold bonds with deteriorating
fundamentals, whereas active managers can avoid/reduce the
impact of credit deterioration in a portfolio.
• The underlying HY bond indexes of HY passive strategies are
capitalization weighted, and therefore predisposed to heavily
weighting the largest HY debt issuers. In some instances, this
can have a negative influence on index results.
• In general, passive HY ETFs have experienced high trading
levels and therefore high trading costs, which have eaten into
returns. On an asset basis, HY ETFs have experienced more
than twice the volatility in asset flows of HY mutual funds.2
Investors with longer investment horizons may benefit from
investing in HY mutual funds, which historically have had a
lower percentage of flows to assets and thus lower trading
costs.
2 Source: Lipper, 2013 to 2015.
HY bond funds: best aligned with long-term goals
Investors that hold HY bond funds over a full market cycle
may benefit from compounding of high income and potential
appreciation as securities are called or mature at par.
At
points in a cycle, HY bonds are susceptible to bouts of
volatility. As market conditions evolve, HY bond prices can
become overvalued or undervalued for a variety of reasons—
technical and fundamental. With a long-term active
investment approach, an investor may be able to take
advantage of these valuation opportunities.
Additionally,
the recovery years of HY bonds—those following an annual
6
decline—have tended to be good (often very good, Exhibit 3).
By aligning HY bond fund holdings with long-term financial
objectives, investors may avoid being forced to liquidate at an
inopportune time to meet a financial need. The key is having
a time frame that allows HY bond prices to recover.
Summary
HY bond funds have the capacity to add value to a diversified
portfolio over the long term. While there is a spectrum of fund
objectives within the HY bond fund category to consider, not
all of them are created equal—income does not equal outcome.
We believe actively managed HY funds are favorably
differentiated by their potential to identify valuation opportunities over a market cycle while managing risk.
Exhibit 7 Diversity of HY bond funds available to align
with investor risk-and-return preferences
Short
Duration
Income
High
Quality
Income
Core
Income
Opportunistic
Income
Investment
Grade
Investment
Grade
Investment
Grade
Investment
Grade
Sr. Secured
Loans
Sr. Secured
Loans
Sr.
Secured
Loans
Sr. Secured
Loans
Secured
Bonds
Secured
Bonds
Secured
Bonds
Secured
Bonds
Sr. Unsecured
Bonds
Sr.
Unsecured
Bonds
Sr. Unsecured
Bonds
Sr. Unsecured
Bonds
Subordinated
Bonds
Subordinated
Bonds
Subordinated
Bonds
Subordinated
Bonds
Convertible
Bonds
Convertible
Bonds
Convertible
Bonds
Convertible
Bonds
Preferred
Stock
Preferred
Stock
Preferred
Stock
Preferred
Stock
Common
Stock
Common
Stock
Common
Stock
Common
Stock
Primary
Opportunistic
Negligible
Source: Fidelity Investments; for illustrative purposes only.
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HIGH-YIELD BOND FUNDS IN A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO
Isn’t the HY market all about energy?
Yes and no. Depending on the benchmark used, the energy
sector accounted for 10% to 15% of the HY market at the end of
December 2015 (Exhibit A). If other commodity-related issuers
had been included, the total would have been in the 20%
range. As with telecommunication companies in the 1990s and
leveraged buyouts in the mid-2000s, energy is this cycle’s weak
link.
And in this instance, sentiment is unlikely to change until
there is some stabilization in oil and natural gas prices.
There are two reasons for some optimism. First, Exhibit A shows
the energy sector is already pricing in its own recession and
a 10% to 20% annual default rate over the next few years as
implied by the option-adjusted spread. Second, with 80% of the
HY market not related to commodities, there will eventually be a
decoupling between energy prices and the overall HY market.
At a
spread of 695 basis points, the HY market is theoretically pricing
in a default rate of 6% to 7%.1 That would be unprecedented for a
U.S. HY market without a recession.
1 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Constrained Index, as of
Dec.
31, 2015.
Exhibit A Energy issues represented nearly 11% of the HY index at the end of 2015.
Market Value
($B)
% of Energy
Sector
% of HY
Index
Yield-toWorst (%)
Option- Adj.
Spread (bps)
2015 Return
(%)
Exploration & Production
59.3
44.8
4.9
21
1,918
–36.12
Gas Distribution
43.9
33.1
3.6
9
712
–6.07
Oil Field Equipment & Services
22.2
16.7
1.8
18.9
1,713
–21.08
Oil Refining & Marketing
7.2
5.4
0.6
8.1
633
5.3
$132.50
100
10.90%
15.90%
1,415
–25.58
100.00%
8.77%
695
-4.61
Total Energy
BofA ML U.S. HY Index
$1,212.60
Yield to worst (%): The lowest potential yield that can be received on a bond without the issuer actually defaulting, calculated by using the lower of the yield to
maturity and the yield to call on every call date. Option adjusted spread: the spread relative to a risk-free interest rate, usually measured in basis points (bps),
that equates the theoretical present value of a series of uncertain cash flows of an instrument to its current market price.
Bps: basis points. Past performance
is no guarantee of future results. Source: BofA Merrill Lynch U.S.
High Yield Constrained Index, as of Dec. 31, 2015.
AUTHORS
Matthew Conti l Portfolio Manager
Matt Conti is a portfolio manager in the high-yield bond group of Fidelity Investments. In this role, Mr.
Conti manages various high-yield bond
portfolios and subportfolios. He joined Fidelity in 1995 as a high-yield analyst and has been a portfolio manager since 2000.
Michael Cheng, CFA l Quantitative Analyst
Michael Cheng is a quantitative analyst on the Equity & High Income Quantitative Research team at Fidelity Investments. In this role, Mr.
Cheng is responsible for quantitative alpha research, idea screening, risk management, portfolio construction, and asset allocation research.
He joined Fidelity in 1999.
Scott Mensi l Director, Investment Product
Scott Mensi is a director in the Investment Product Group at Fidelity Investments.
Mr. Mensi is responsible for product strategy, development,
management, and advocacy of Fidelity’s high-income portfolios. He joined Fidelity in 2011.
Fidelity Thought Leadership Vice President Geri Sheehan, CFA, provided editorial direction.
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Lynch Current 10-Year U.S. Treasury Index measures the performance of
Treasuries with at least 10 years remaining until maturity.
© 2016 FMR LLC. All rights reserved.
Citigroup 3-Month Treasury Bill Index is an unmanaged index that tracks
short-term U.S. government debt instruments.
746573.1.0
The Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index tracks the investable market of
the U.S.-dollar-denominated leveraged loan market.
It consists of issues
rated “5B” or lower, meaning that the highest rated issues included in this
index are Moody’s/S&P ratings of Baa1/BB+ or Ba1/BBB+. All loans are
funded term loans with a tenor of at least one year and are made by issuers
domiciled in developed countries.
For institutional investor or investment professional use only.
Endnotes
Exhibit 2
JANUARY 2006–DECEMBER 2015
Allocation
Annualized
S&P500
BarAgg
HY
Risk
Return
49%
31%
20%
9.18
6.60
45%
35%
20%
8.55
6.48
60%
40%
0%
9.18
6.48
Source: Barclays, as of Dec. 31, 2015.
NOVEMBER 1984–DECEMBER 2015
Allocation
Annualized
S&P500
BarAgg
HY
Risk
Return
54%
26%
20%
9.45
9.90
52%
28%
20%
9.07
9.80
60%
40%
0%
9.45
9.80
Source: Barclays, as of Dec.
31, 2015.
Option-adjusted spread is the spread relative to a risk-free interest rate,
usually measured in basis points (bps), that equates the theoretical present
value of a series of uncertain cash flows of an instrument to its current
market price.
Standard deviation shows how much variation there is from the average
(mean or expected value). A low standard deviation indicates that the data
points tend to be very close to the mean, whereas a high standard deviation
indicates that the data points are spread out over a large range of values. A
higher standard deviation represents greater relative risk.
Excess return: the amount by which a portfolio’s performance exceeds
its benchmark, net (in the case of the analysis in this article) or gross of
operating expenses, in percentage points.
Index Definitions
BofA Merrill Lynch U.S.
High Yield Bond Index is a market-capitalizationweighted index of U.S.-dollar-denominated, below-investment-grade
corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. The BofA
Merrill Lynch U.S.
Cash Pay High Yield Index tracks the performance
of U.S.-dollar-denominated, below-investment-grade corporate debt,
currently in a coupon paying period, that is publicly issued in the U.S.
domestic market. The BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Constrained
Index contains all securities in The BofA Merrill Lynch U.S.
Cash Pay
High Yield Index that are rated BB1 through BB3, based on an average of
Moody’s, S&P and Fitch, but caps issuer exposure at 2%. The BofA Merrill
8
JPM® EMBI Global Index, and its country sub-indices, tracks total returns
for the U.S.-dollar-denominated debt instruments issued by emerging
market sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities, such as Brady bonds, loans,
and eurobonds.
Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based, market-valueweighted benchmark that measures the performance of the investment
grade, U.S.-dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market.
S&P 500®
Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stocks
chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation to
represent U.S. equity performance. S&P 500 is a registered service mark of
Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC.
Views expressed are as of the date indicated, based on the information
available at that time, and may change based on market and other
conditions.
Unless otherwise noted, the opinions provided are those of the
authors and not necessarily those of Fidelity Investments or its affiliates.
Fidelity does not assume any duty to update any of the information.
Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s own goals, time
horizon, and tolerance for risk.
Investors considering investments in bond funds should know that,
generally speaking, the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities
carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall,
and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term
securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit
and default risks for both issuers and counterparties.
Unlike individual
bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so holding them until
maturity to avoid losses caused by price volatility is not possible. Highyield/non-investment-grade bonds involve greater price volatility and risk of
default than investment-grade bonds.
Stock markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to
company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments.
Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or guarantee
against loss.
All indices are unmanaged. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Third-party marks are the property of their respective owners; all other
marks are the property of FMR LLC.
If receiving this piece through your relationship with Fidelity Institutional
Asset Management (FIAM), this publication is provided to investment
professionals, plan sponsors, and institutional investors by Fidelity
Investments Institutional Services Company, Inc., and for certain
institutional investors by Pyramis Distributors Corporation LLC.
If receiving this piece through your relationship with Fidelity Personal
& Workplace Investing (PWI), Fidelity Family Office Services (FFOS), or
Fidelity Institutional Wealth Services (IWS), this publication is provided
through Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC.
If receiving this piece through your relationship with National Financial or
Fidelity Capital Markets, this publication is for institutional investor use
only.
Clearing and custody services are provided through National Financial
Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC.
.