Logan GARP / March 2016
Six
Coulter
Avenue
•
Suite
2000
•
Suburban
Square
•
Ardmore, PA
19003
•
800.215.1100
•
610.642.7100
(Fax)
Logan Capital GARP: 1st Quarter 2016 Review & A Look Ahead(a)
To borrow a quote from Charles Dickens
“it was best of times and it was the worst of
times…” as the first quarter of 2016 was a
roller coaster ride for investors with the S&P
500 declining by 11% by the second week
of February and then rallying back to finish
slightly positive for the quarter. We are pleased
to report that our portfolios held up particularly
well in the downturn at the start of the year
and finished ahead of the index for the quarter.
Although volatility is just part of the investing
landscape, investors seem more on edge this
year than in the last few years. With regard to
volatility, we would like to point out that going
back to 1980 the S&P 500 Index had intrayear drops averaging 15.7% and even with
these drops, annual returns have been positive
27 of 36 years. In fact, last August’s decline
of 10% was the first decline of that magnitude
since 2011.
Volatility as measured by the VIX
Index has been relatively mild over the last
few years, averaging a level of 21.7. To put
this reading into context, during the economic
crisis of 2008 the VIX reached a high of 80.9.
The main culprits for the anxiety and volatility
this quarter were fears of a global economic
slowdown – particularly in China – fears of
rising interest rates in the U.S 2015 and falling
commodity prices which were interpreted
to mean that global growth was slowing.
Regarding interest rates in the U.S., after
several years of holding rates steady, the
Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points
in December. This led to uncertainty regarding
how quickly rates would rise in 2016.
At
the end of 2015 and early 2016 forecasters
generally were looking for rates to increase
(a )
three or four times during 2016. However, as
economic indicators around the world began to
soften, Federal Reserve officials stated that they
would be more cautious in raising rates quickly
in order not to harm the economies both here
and abroad. At the start of the second quarter of
2016, economists are now looking for rates to be
increased maybe once – or not at all – this year.
While investors in the U.S.
were wary of interest
rate hikes, investors in Europe were looking at
declining interest rates as well as rates that in some
cases were turning negative. This falling rate
environment over the last year has led to money
flowing from domestic equity funds to funds
overseas. The Investment Company Institute,
according to the Wall Street Journal, estimated
that U.S.
stock funds suffered outflows of $23.0
billion while foreign funds had inflows of $25.1
Billion. It appears investors believe that since
the U.S. equity markets benefitted from dovish
interest rate policy by the Federal Reserve here at
home, markets overseas will also react favorably
to an accommodative interest rate policy by
the European Central Bank.
We are not so sure
this is the case as managing several different
political systems, ethnic groups and economies
is inherently more difficult than managing one
country. In fact, as Greece has moved to the back
burner in terms of being a threat to the stability of
the European Union, Great Britain now is seen as
the next threat as voters there consider a proposal
to withdraw from the European Union. This vote
is scheduled for June 23, 2016 so this topic will
be a focus of conversation over then next few
months.
We continue to believe that the U.S. is
the most attractive place to invest over the long
term.
GARP results discussed herein should be read in conjunction with the attached performance and disclosures.
Securities offered through National Securities Corporation, Member FINRA/SIPC
www.logancapital.com
. www.logancapital.com
Here at home, things are in fairly good
shape. Consumers are in in the best
shape they have been in certain areas
over the last few years. Household net
worth is at the highest level it has been
going back to 1990. Household debt
levels as a percentage of disposable
income are 10.1% down from 13.2%
in the fourth quarter of 2007, the
lowest level since 1980.
Although
wage growth has been lackluster over
the last few years, unemployment has
fallen to 5%, the lowest level since
1970. The University of Michigan
Consumer Confidence level was at 91
level compared to the average level of
85 going back to 1970. Lower energy
prices and an improving housing
market have also helped consumers
feel better about their economic
situation.
In the corporate sector, businesses
are in good shape financially and
corporate cash (as a percent of current
assets) is near all-time highs.
This
has led to record levels of dividends
paid and corporate stock buybacks.
However, earnings expectations for
the first quarter are expected to be
down compared to the same quarter
last year according to FactSet, mainly
due to problems in the energy sector.
We believe that the earnings of the
companies that we own will continue
to outpace the earnings of the
companies it the S&P 500 index.
We continue to be positive on the
equity market because even though
the bull market is aging by historical
standards, the elements for a bear
market do not appear to be present
at this time. Bear markets in the
past have been caused by recession,
rapidly rising interest rates (usually
orchestrated by the Federal Reserve,)
extreme equity valuations and
commodity price spikes. We believe
that the market will continue to
separate the winners from the losers
and that earnings growth will be
key, and that our portfolio of quality,
consistent growth companies will
continue to perform well.
Top Contributors
Fiserv
Westinghouse Air Brake Tech.
C.R.
Bard
Marsh & McLennan
Dollar Tree
Bottom Contributors
State Street Corp.
Perrigo
Snap-on
U.S. Bancorp
Costco Wholesale
1Q16 % Contribution
to Portfolio
0.72
0.47
0.46
0.42
0.39
1Q16 % Contribution
to Portfolio
-0.53
-0.44
-0.30
-0.17
-0.14
Source: Factset
Information is supplemental to a fully compliant GIPS
presentation.
Past peformance does not guarantee future results. To
obtain the calculation methodology and a list showing
the contribution of each holding in the representative
account to the overall account’s performance during
the reporting period, please email a request to
djhesketh@logancapital.com.
The holdings identified
do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or
recommended for advisory clients.
Six Coulter Avenue • Suite 2000 • Suburban Square • Ardmore, PA 19003 • 800.215.1100 • 610.642.7100 fax
. www.logancapital.com
Logan Capital Management, Inc.
Performance Results: Logan GARP (Taxable) Composite
March 31, 2009 through March 31, 2016
Year
YTD 2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
3/31/09 - 12/31/09
Total
Total Return
Return Net
Gross of Russell 1000
of Fees (%) Fees (%)
Growth (%)
3.3%
3.5%
0.7%
1.0%
1.9%
5.7%
11.5%
12.5%
13.0%
30.0%
31.1%
33.5%
10.8%
11.7%
15.3%
0.1%
1.0%
2.6%
12.9%
13.9%
16.7%
38.7%
39.4%
43.1%
S&P 500
(%)
1.4%
1.4%
13.7%
32.4%
16.0%
2.1%
15.1%
42.1%
Number
Composite
Composite Russell 1000
of
Dispersion Gross 3-Yr Std
Growth 3-Yr
Accounts
of Fees (%)
Dev (%)
Std Dev (%)
15
0.1%
11.0%
11.6%
16
0.5%
10.4%
10.7%
13
0.6%
9.8%
9.6%
19
0.7%
12.6%
12.2%
14
1.1%
15.3%
15.7%
14
0.8%
N/A
N/A
12
0.4%
N/A
N/A
36
N/A
N/A
N/A
S&P 500
3-Yr Std
Dev (%)
11.2%
10.5%
9.0%
11.9%
15.1%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Composite
3-Yr
Assets in
Sharpe Composite
Ratio (%) ($millions)
1.1%
$9.7
1.4%
$10.0
1.8%
$4.8
1.1%
$19.3
0.6%
$9.5
N/A
$8.5
N/A
$8.3
N/A
$20.1
% of Firm
Assets
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.9%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
1.3%
Firm
Assets
($millions)
$1,383
$1,398
$1,816
$2,061
$1,932
$1,873
$1,769
$1,539
UMA
Assets
^*
$ 166
$ 207
$ 229
$ 115
$
82
$
21
$
13
$ -
Firm +
UMA
Assets^
$ 1,549
$ 1,605
$ 2,045
$ 2,176
$ 2,014
$ 1,894
$ 1,782
$ 1,539
N/A - Data is not available for the time period. The 3 year annualized ex-post standard deviations are not presented for 2009-2011 because 36 monthly returns are not available.
^*UMA assets as of 2/29/16
^Information is supplemental to a fully GIPS compliant presentation
Portfolio
Performance
Quarter-to-Date
Year-to-Date
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
Since Inception †
Total Return
Total Return
Russell
Gross of Fees
Net of Fees
1000 Growth
Annualized Returns (as of 3/31/16)
3.5%
3.3%
0.7%
3.5%
3.3%
0.7%
3.6%
2.8%
2.5%
12.2%
11.3%
13.6%
10.8%
9.9%
12.4%
15.7%
14.8%
17.9%
S & P 500
1.4%
1.4%
1.8%
11.8%
11.6%
17.0%
†Inception of 03/31/09
Please reference the performance disclosure below.
Logan GARP Taxable Composite contains fully discretionary accounts, measured against the Russell 1000 Growth benchmark and the S&P 500. The Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance
of the large-cap growth segment of the U.S. equity universe.
It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. It has been constructed to
provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the large-cap growth segment.The S&P 500 Index seeks to reflect the risk and return of all large cap companies and is also is used as a proxy for all of
the total stock market. It tracks the 500 most widely held stocks on the NYSE or NASDAQ and is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S.
equities. The benchmarks selected include the
reinvestment of dividends and income, but do not reflect fees, brokerage commissions, withholding taxes, or other expenses of investing. These benchmarks are used for comparative purposes only and
generally reflect the risk and investment style of the composite.
The strategy invests in U.S.
securities of large and mid-capitalization companies with a market capitalization of over $2 billion at the time of purchase. At certain times the strategy may invest a portion of
an account in an index fund or an ETF. Turnover is low, typically under 35% and holdings range between 25 to 30 positions.
Only accounts paying commission fees are included. The minimum account size for
this composite is $100 thousand.
Logan Capital Management, Inc. claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards.
Logan
Capital Management, Inc. has been independently verified for the periods April 1, 1994 through September 30, 2015 by Ashland Partners & Company LLP. A copy of the verification report(s) is/are available
upon request.
Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm’s policies and procedures are designed
to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards.
Verification does not ensure the accuracy of any specific composite disclosure presentation.
Logan Capital Management, Inc. is a privately owned registered investment adviser. The firm maintains a complete list and description of composites, which is available upon request.
Results are based on fully discretionary accounts under management, including those accounts no longer with the firm.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The U.S. Dollar is the currency used to express performance. Returns are presented gross and net of investment management fees and include the reinvestment of all income.
Gross of fee returns do not
reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees. Gross of fee returns have, however, been reduced by all actual trading expenses. Net of fee returns are calculated net of actual investment management
fees & actual trading expenses.
The annual composite dispersion presented is an asset-weighted standard deviation calculated for the accounts in the composite the entire year. Additional information
regarding the policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance, and preparing compliant presentations are available upon request.
The investment management fee schedule for accounts over $10 million is as follows: 80 basis points on the first $25 million, 70 basis points on the next $25 million, 50 basis points on the next $25 million
and 45 basis points on the $25 million thereafter. The investment advisory fees charged for accounts whose market value exceeds $100 million are negotiable.
Accounts under $10 million will be charged a
flat 1.00% per annum. Actual investment advisory fees incurred by clients may vary.
The Logan GARP Taxable Composite was created April 1, 2009.
Six Coulter Avenue • Suite 2000 • Suburban Square • Ardmore, PA 19003 • 800.215.1100 • 610.642.7100 fax
. www.logancapital.com
Logan Capital Management, Inc.
Performance Results: Logan GARP (Nontaxable) Composite
December 31, 1997 through March 31, 2016
Year
YTD 2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
Total Return Total Return
Net of Fees
Gross of Russell 1000
Growth (%)
(%)
Fees (%)
3.1%
3.4%
0.7%
1.3%
2.1%
5.7%
11.1%
12.0%
13.0%
30.6%
31.8%
33.5%
10.1%
10.7%
15.3%
0.9%
1.4%
2.6%
12.4%
12.9%
16.7%
32.2%
32.8%
37.2%
-40.8%
-40.5%
-38.4%
7.4%
8.0%
11.8%
1.6%
2.1%
9.1%
1.1%
1.6%
5.3%
6.0%
6.6%
6.3%
21.4%
22.1%
29.8%
-21.4%
-21.0%
-27.9%
-8.5%
-8.1%
-20.4%
8.7%
9.2%
-22.4%
13.4%
13.9%
33.2%
24.3%
24.7%
38.7%
S&P 500
(%)
1.4%
1.4%
13.7%
32.4%
16.0%
2.1%
15.1%
26.5%
-37.0%
5.5%
15.8%
4.9%
10.9%
28.7%
-22.1%
-11.9%
-9.1%
21.0%
28.6%
Composite
Composite Russell 1000 S&P 500
Number of Dispersion Gross 3-Yr Std Growth 3-Yr 3-Yr Std
Accounts
of Fees (%)
Dev (%) Std Dev (%) Dev (%)
3
N.M.
10.9%
11.6%
11.2%
3
N.M.
10.4%
10.7%
10.5%
4
N.M.
9.9%
9.6%
9.0%
2
N.M.
12.6%
12.2%
11.9%
3
N.M.
15.5%
15.7%
15.1%
3
N.M.
18.3%
17.8%
18.7%
2
N.M.
21.7%
22.1%
21.9%
6
0.6%
19.8%
19.7%
19.6%
7
0.4%
15.5%
16.4%
15.1%
24
0.4%
8.3%
8.5%
7.7%
34
0.5%
7.4%
8.3%
6.8%
72
0.6%
10.0%
9.5%
9.0%
85
0.7%
14.9%
15.5%
14.9%
78
2.0%
17.8%
22.7%
18.1%
64
1.6%
18.9%
25.2%
18.6%
53
1.4%
17.3%
25.2%
16.7%
42
3.4%
19.1%
22.8%
17.4%
43
2.4%
N/A
N/A
N/A
39
4.9%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Composite
3-Yr
Assets in
Sharpe Composite
Ratio(%) ($millions)
1.1%
$0.4
1.4%
$0.4
1.8%
$0.9
1.1%
$0.5
0.5%
$0.5
0.8%
$22.1
-0.2%
$21.7
-0.4%
$32.2
-1.1%
$27.0
0.0%
$221.0
0.0%
$358.0
0.8%
$563.0
0.0%
$630.0
-0.3%
$536.0
-0.6%
$331.0
0.0%
$356.0
0.6%
$309.0
N/A
$322.0
N/A
$272.0
% of Firm
Assets*
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
1.2%
2.1%
27.6%
48.5%
46.6%
43.2%
41.5%
41.0%
35.7%
38.0%
34.8%
39.8%
26.2%
Logan Firm
Assets
($millions)*
$1,383
$1,398
$1,816
$2,061
$1,932
$1,873
$1,769
$1,539
$1,240
$1,658
$1,333
$1,123
$1,066
$1,006
$861
$912
$1,027
$873
$648
UMA
Assets
^*
$ 166
$ 207
$ 229
$ 115
$
82
$
21
$
13
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ -
Firm +
UMA
Assets
^
$ 1,549
$ 1,605
$ 2,045
$ 2,176
$ 2,014
$ 1,894
$ 1,782
$ 1,539
$ 1,240
$ 1,658
$ 1,333
$ 1,123
$ 1,066
$ 1,006
$ 861
$ 912
$ 1,027
$ 873
$ 648
* Percent of firm assets based on McHugh assets up until 12/31/08; starting 3/31/09 based off of Logan assets
N.M. - Information is not statistically meaningful due to an insufficient number of portfolios in the composite for the entire year.
N/A - Data is not available for time period. The 3 year annualized ex-post standard deviations are not presented from 1998-1999 because 36 months of returns are not available
^*UMA assets as of 2/29/16
^Information is supplemental to a fully GIPS compliant presentation
Portfolio
Performance
Quarter-to-Date
Year-to-Date
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
Since Inception †
Total Return
Total Return
Russell
Gross of Fees
Net of Fees
1000 Growth
Annualized Returns (as of 3/31/16)
3.4%
3.1%
0.7%
3.4%
3.1%
0.7%
3.9%
3.1%
2.5%
12.1%
11.2%
13.6%
10.8%
10.0%
12.4%
5.8%
5.2%
8.3%
5.4%
4.8%
5.7%
S & P 500
1.4%
1.4%
1.8%
11.8%
11.6%
7.0%
6.3%
†Inception of 12/31/1997
Logan GARP Nontaxable Composite contains fully discretionary accounts with assets of $100,000 or more, measured against the Russell 1000 Growth benchmark and the S&P 500. The Russell 1000 Growth Index measures
the performance of the large-cap growth segment of the U.S.
equity universe. It includes those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. It has been constructed to provide a
comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the large-cap growth segment.The S&P 500 Index seeks to reflect the risk and return of all large cap companies and is also is used as a proxy for all of the total stock market.
It tracks the
500 most widely held stocks on the NYSE or NASDAQ and is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. The benchmarks selected include the reinvestment of dividends and income, but do not reflect fees,
brokerage commissions, withholding taxes, or other expenses of investing.
These benchmarks are used for comparative purposes only and generally reflect the risk and investment style of the composite.
The strategy invests in U.S. securities of large and mid-capitalization companies with a market capitalization of over $2 billion at the time of purchase. At certain times the strategy may invest a portion of an account in an index fund or
an ETF.
Turnover is low, typically under 35% and holdings range between 25 to 30 positions. Only accounts paying commission fees are included. The minimum account size for this composite is $100 thousand.
Logan Capital Management, Inc.
claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. Logan Capital Management, Inc. has
been independently verified for the periods April 1, 1994 through September 30, 2015 by Ashland Partners & Company LLP.
A copy of the verification report(s) is/are available upon request.
Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm’s policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present
performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. Verification does not ensure the accuracy of any specific composite disclosure presentation.
Logan Capital Management, Inc. is a privately owned registered investment adviser.
The firm maintains a complete list and description of composites, which is available upon request.
Results are based on fully discretionary accounts under management, including those accounts no longer with the firm. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
In presentations shown prior to December 31, 2013, an account was incorrectly included in the composite. This caused us to incorrectly report number of accounts & assets.
The time periods affected are 2010-2013.
The U.S. Dollar is the currency used to express performance. Returns are presented gross and net of investment management fees and include the reinvestment of all income.
Gross of fee returns do not reflect the deduction of
investment advisory fees. Gross of fee returns have, however, been reduced by all actual trading expenses. Net of fee returns are calculated net of actual investment management fees & actual trading expenses.
The annual composite
dispersion presented is an asset-weighted standard deviation calculated for the accounts in the composite the entire year. Additional information regarding the policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance, and preparing
compliant presentations are available upon request.
The investment management fee schedule for account over $10 million is as follows: 80 basis points on the first $25 million, 70 basis points on the next $25 million, 50 basis points on the next $25 million and 45 basis points on the
$25 million thereafter. The investment advisory fees charged for accounts whose market value exceeds $100 million are negotiable.
Accounts under $10 million will be charged a flat 1.00% per annum. Actual investment advisory fees
incurred by clients may vary.
The Logan GARP Nontaxable Composite was created April 1, 2009. Performance presented prior to April 1, 2009 represents that of McHugh Associates.
Six Coulter Avenue • Suite 2000 • Suburban Square • Ardmore, PA 19003 • 800.215.1100 • 610.642.7100 fax
.