RESEARCH INSIGHT
BEYOND
DIVESTMENT: USING
LOW CARBON
INDEXES
Remy Briand, Linda-Eling Lee, Sébastien Lieblich, Véronique Menou and Anurag Singh
April 2015
APRIL 2015
. BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
CONTENTS
Executive Summary............................................................................ 3
Introduction ....................................................................................... 5
Carbon Stranded Assets ..................................................................... 6
Identifying Sources of Risk ................................................................................
10
Concentration in a Few Sectors ..................................................................................... 10
Concentration by Fuel Type ........................................................................................... 12
Key Parameters for Institutional Investors .......................................
13
Short-term Risk .............................................................................................................. 13
Long-Term Thesis ........................................................................................................... 13
Stakeholder Communication .........................................................................................
13
Public Stance .................................................................................................................. 14
Reducing Carbon Risk Exposure ....................................................... 15
Selection Strategies: Simpler Communications but Short-Term Risk...............
15
Weighting Strategies: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Financial Risk ...................... 17
Over-Weighting and Selecting Strategies: The Middle Road............................
19
Comparing the Different Approaches: What Matters? .................................... 21
Conclusion ....................................................................................... 25
Appendix: Asset Owners Embrace Low Carbon ................................
26
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BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Climate change presents one of the biggest economic and political challenges of the 21st
century. While world leaders have struggled to arrive at a consensus on how to respond to
issues posed by the increase in the Earth’s temperature, institutional investors are exploring
the potential impact of these changes on financial assets. In particular, investors are probing
the long-term portfolio implications of “carbon stranded assets” — assets that may lose
economic value before the end of their expected life primarily driven by changes in
regulation and technological innovation.
Companies’ carbon exposure consists of two dimensions: current emissions and fossil-fuel
reserves (representing potential future emissions). In the MSCI ACWI Index, Utilities,
Materials and Energy companies accounted for more than four-fifths of the total current
carbon emissions.
Not surprisingly, Energy companies represent more than 80% of total
fossil fuel reserves.
Up until now, much of the pressure to manage carbon stranded assets risks has focused on
divesting from companies in the fossil fuel sectors. This approach effectively communicates
to various stakeholders an investor’s concerns about climate change. But, from a financial
perspective, the strategy is not optimal as it can create significant short-term risk by
potentially deviating sharply from market risk and returns.
In addition, such an approach
largely ignores fixed assets from non-Energy sectors in the portfolio that are at risk of being
stranded due to their dependence on burning fossil fuel reserves, such as coal-based power
plants.
The shortcomings of the divestment approach have led major asset owners to seek more
financially practical solutions to managing carbon risk. Instead, investors are starting to turn
to strategies that re-weight the market-capitalization portfolio to effectively minimize broad
carbon exposure while using optimization to reduce tracking error. These approaches take
into consideration both current emissions and fossil-fuel reserves, thus aiming to capture a
broader exposure to carbon-intensive companies while seeking to minimize short-term risk.
MSCI offers indexes designed to reflect divestment and re-weighting strategies to reduce
carbon exposure.
These approaches are summarized below:
ï‚·
Divestment strategies aim to enable institutions to have simple and clear
communications with stakeholders but ignore short-term portfolio risks. For
example, a portfolio replicating the MSCI Global ex Fossil Fuels Indexes aims to
eliminate 100% of the policy benchmark’s carbon reserves exposure by excluding
companies that own oil, gas and coal reserves.
ï‚·
Re-weighting strategies, such as those applied to portfolios that track the MSCI
Global Low Carbon Target Indexes, seek to increase exposure to more carbonefficient companies while reducing short-term risk against the benchmark.
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. BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
ï‚·
Combining selection and re-weighting strategies may offer a clear message in
communicating with stakeholders while taking into account short-term tracking
error and long-term risk exposure to carbon-intensive companies. A portfolio
replicating the MSCI Global Low Carbon Leaders Index would include companies
with low carbon exposure while seeking to minimize ex-ante tracking error.
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BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
INTRODUCTION
Climate change presents one of the biggest economic and political challenges of the 21st
century.1 Policymakers have struggled to reach a global consensus on how to address the
potentially devastating effects of rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and other
consequences of the increase in the earth’s temperature. On the one hand, the lack of
clarity from policymakers has allowed the business and financial community to operate in a
business-as-usual mode. On the other hand, as the scientific evidence gains credence, alarm
bells are starting to ring. Leaders in the global investment community have kicked off a lively
debate over the financial risks from climate change and potential courses of action to
mitigate those long-term portfolio risks.
A growing number of large asset owners, including
the Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund (AP4), the Fonds de Réserve pour les Retraites
(FRR) and the United Nations Joint Staff Pension Fund, are allocating assets to low-carbon
strategies.2
This paper discusses one aspect of the financial risks posed by climate change. Specifically,
we focus on the risk that a significant portion of current assets could become “stranded” –
and thereby drastically lose value — if carbon emissions are constrained in the future. First,
we describe the context and logic behind the “carbon stranded assets” thesis and analyze
where those risks may be found in a broad, diversified public equities portfolio such as one
that tracks the MSCI ACWI Index.
Second, we present a framework for understanding how
institutional investors with different motivations and investment beliefs can address carbonrelated risks in their portfolios. Finally, we describe current approaches aimed at reducing
risks of carbon stranded assets, and explain how recent innovations provide an
implementable approach for asset owners seeking to address carbon risk in their portfolios
while managing short-term financial risks.
1
United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
2
See the Appendix for more detail. MSCI’s Low Carbon Indexes were developed at the request of AP4, FRR and Amundi,
who offered critical insights in their development.
Also, see Hedging Climate Risk, a paper by Mats Andersson, CEO of AP4;
Patrick Bolton of Columbia Business School’s Department of Economics; and Frédéric Samama of Amundi, which
discusses a low carbon index that employs optimization.
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BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
CARBON STRANDED ASSETS
Carbon stranded assets are assets that may lose economic value before the end of their
expected life primarily driven by changes in regulation and technology, though market
forces, environmental concerns and societal norms are also significant factors.
Two core assumptions underlie this view. The
Carbon stranded assets
first is that the Earth will be unable to sustain
Carbon stranded assets are assets that
the current rate of increase in greenhouse gas
may lose economic value before the
emissions (GHGs) without triggering
end of their expected life because of
catastrophic effects. Although there remain
changes in regulation, market forces,
notable pockets of skepticism about climate
environmental concerns, societal
change, the preponderance of mainstream
norms and innovation associated with
scientific evidence points to a rise in average
the transition to a low carbon
temperatures, which, based on their current
economy. Limits on future greenhouse
trajectory, would lead to a 2.6-4.8 Celsius
gas emissions could affect two-thirds
degree warming of the earth’s temperature by
of existing fossil fuel reserves (oil, gas
the end of the next century.3 According to the
and coal) as well as fixed assets, such
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
as power plants, that burn fossil fuels.
(IPCC), the global average sea level has risen by
10 to 20 centimeters over the past hundred
years and is projected to rise another 9 to 88 centimeters by the year 2100.
Hundreds of
millions of people could be affected by coastal flooding and displaced due to land loss by the
end of this century. The IPCC therefore has projected that GHG emissions need to be
reduced by 40% to 70% by 2050 (compared to 2010 levels) to halt these effects.4
A second core assumption is that policymakers or regulators will eventually limit the amount
of GHG emissions as a response to the potential catastrophic effects of climate change. In
late 2011, world leaders agreed to adopt a “carbon budget” that would keep the Earth’s
warming to under 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels.5 That budget would limit the
further release of global GHG emissions to 866 gigatons by 2100,6 though some observers
believe that this budget will be exhausted much sooner.7
3
See the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report
http://www.europeanclimate.org/documents/IPCCWebGuide.pdf
4
IPCC: Greenhosue gas emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts , April 13, 2014
5
Report of the Conference of the Parties on its seventeenth session, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, March
15 2012.
6
IPCC estimates based on 80% probability: http://carbontracker.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Carbon-budget-checklist-FINAL-
1.pdf
7
Understanding the IPCC Reports, World Resources institute.
http://www.wri.org/ipcc-infographics
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BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
There is some evidence that global awareness of the challenges of climate change is
increasing and spurring political action at the international, national, and sub-national levels,
albeit unevenly and in fits and starts. At the international level, the Conference of the
Parties (COP), the governing body for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, will be held in Paris in November 2015 with the aim of achieving a legally binding
and universal agreement on mitigating climate change. At the national level, governments’
commitments vary with regards to emission reductions as well as the mechanisms in place
to curb them. For example, the European Union has adopted emissions trading schemes;
China has seven city- and provincial-level pilot trading schemes which are viewed as
forerunners for a projected national trading scheme; South Africa is proposing a carbon tax;
and Australia has created an emissions reduction fund.
At the sub-national level, piecemeal
actions have proliferated, including emissions trading schemes in California and nine states
in the northeastern United States.
New Energy Sources
While regulatory changes that limit GHG emissions would have the most direct role in
triggering the stranding of carbon-intensive assets, the rapid development and falling costs
of new technology could also trigger large-scale substitution of current energy sources with
cleaner sources of energy. In fact, as with other examples of technology displacement —
from the transition of radio-to-television to the ubiquity of personal computers and tablets
— energy substitution could be a more disruptive threat than regulations which often allow
more time for businesses to adapt (see box on next page).
In recent years, the share of renewable energy in the world’s energy mix has grown
substantially due to a range of technological improvements that have brought their costs
closer to parity with those of fossil fuels.8 Renewable energy is the fastest growing energy
source. According to the International Renewable Agency (IRENA), renewable energy grew
85% over the past 10 years, reaching 1,700 gigawatts (GW) in 2013, accounting for 30% of all
installed power capacity.
In 2013, for the first time, non-members of the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) installed more renewable capacity than
OECD countries. For example, in 2013, China’s solar and wind capacity installation totaled an
estimated 27.4 GW — four times higher than Japan, the next largest country in term of
renewable capacity installation.9 The country has committed to having 20% of its primary
energy consumption sourced from non-fossil fuels by 2030. This addition to China’s
generation capacity equates to “more than all the coal-fired power plants that exist in China
today and close to total current electricity generation capacity in the United States.”10
8
For example, see Deutsche Bank’s report on the increasing competitiveness of the solar sector.
Also see Lazard Ltd.’s
Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis—Version 8.0 which analyzes the costs of various renewable energy sources
9
Rethinking Energy, International Renewable Energy Agency, 2014.
10
Fact Sheet: U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change and Clean Energy Cooperation, White House, November 11, 2014.
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BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
In an increasing number of markets globally, wind and especially solar technology have
achieved ”grid parity” — that is, they are competitive with the price of electricity from the
local grid, even on an unsubsidized basis. Some investment analysts have projected that the
falling cost of solar panel and system costs will allow solar to reach grid parity in half of the
target markets in the next three years, including in all 50 U.S. states by 201611 and in India by
2017-2018 for utility scale projects.12
Technology and Stranded Assets
New technologies can lead to dramatic changes in industry and society — sometimes
almost overnight. Perhaps the starkest example was the short-lived Pony Express,
which provided mail delivery on a 2,000-mile route from St.
Joseph, Missouri, to
Sacramento, California in only seven days. But the service lasted only 19 months,
shuttering operations just two days after the Pacific Telegraph line opened in October
1861, making its horses and stations into an early form of stranded assets. The owners
filed bankruptcy.*
Horses again were stranded assets in late early 20th century urban America.
But their
departure was not mourned. “Horse pollution” had become an epidemic problem by
the late 19th century, as horse manure and associated public health and sanitation
issues mounted. In fact, in 1894, the Times of London estimated that by 1950 every
street in New York City would be buried nine feet deep in horse manure.
Not only did
this give rise to horrendous odors, disease-transmitting flies and traffic congestion, but
their manure was the source of greenhouse gas emissions. Improvements in the
internal combustion engine in the 1890s helped automobiles supplant horse-drawn
transportation over the next three decades.**
*
**
http://ponyexpress.org/history/
From Horse Power to Horsepower, Access, Spring 2007Access, Spring 2007.
As these alternative sources of energy become less costly, they could challenge the
dominance of fossil fuels, even in the absence of stringent regulations on GHG emissions or
high carbon prices. If cleaner, renewable energy sources become a viable alternative energy
source; fossil fuel reserves and the fixed assets built to burn them could lose significant
value and would thus become stranded.
Energy Efficiency
An important trend that could dampen future demand for fossil fuels is improvements in
energy efficiency.
Technologies targeting the residential, transport and industry sectors,
11
Solar Grid Parity in All 50 US States by 2016, Predicts Deutsche Bank, CleanTechnica, October 29, 2014.
12
;The Rising Sun: Grid parity gets closer, KPMG, September 2012.
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BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
including more efficient appliances and lighting, improved electric motor systems, better use
of automation and control system and electric/hybrid vehicles, have the potential to
significantly reduce aggregate energy demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA)
estimates that 60% of energy saving will come from the building sector, followed by the
industry and transport sectors.
In the automobile sector, the tightening of fuel efficiency standards in major markets, such
as the United States, the European Union and China, have changed the growth trajectory for
gasoline usage over the next decade. Some analysts estimate that new car efficiency is
13
improving by 3%-4% per year while truck efficiency by 1%-2%. Additionally, growth in sales
of fuel efficient and electric vehicles has continued.
In the United States, the biggest market
for these vehicles, sales of hybrids, electric and fuel-efficient diesel vehicles increased 21% in
2013 compared to 2012. This growth has continued in 2014 with sales of electric vehicles
increasing 15.1% for the first five months of the year compared to the same period in
14
2013.
Limitations on future GHG emissions or substitution by new energy sources, coupled with
deceleration in the demand for energy, would have important financial consequences for
the energy sector:
ï‚·
Two-thirds of the fossil fuel reserves that we have already discovered but have not yet
extracted could remain unused. According to the IEA, this could represent 50% of
current oil and gas reserves and 80% of coal reserves.
ï‚·
Fixed assets reliant on burning fossil fuels could also be abandoned if future carbon
emissions exceed the carbon budget or if new energy sources become economically
competitive.
This concept is typically referred to as “locked-in” emissions associated
with fixed assets, particularly long-lived assets. The most relevant example is power
plants that may be prematurely retired because new regulations and/or a shift in energy
technology make them uneconomical to operate for their full expected life.
13
Citi Group, Global Oil Demand Growth – the End is Nigh, March 2013
14
MSCI ESG Research, Industry Report: Automobile, July 2014
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Case Study: Early asset write downs in European utilities
In the past year, European utilities have announced hefty write-downs on coal- and
gas-fired power plants, in large part due to a shift to renewable energy in Germany.
Renewables increased their share of the German power market to 30% in early 2014
through subsidies and preferred access to the grid. The result has been significant for
conventional utilities. In early 2014, GDF-Suez and RWE took write-downs on coal and
gas-fired power plants of EUR 14.9 Bn and EUR 3.3 Bn, respectively.15 Meanwhile, EON,
Germany’s largest utility, announced in late 2014 that it would take a EUR 4.5 billion
write-down on conventional power plants, saying it would spin off that business to
focus on renewable energy.16 GDF-Suez CEO, Gérard Mestrallet, recognized that “the
deterioration of gas storage and thermal-energy production in Europe is deep and
long-lasting.” RWE’s CEO, Peter Terium, recently acknowledged the company’s mistake
in entering the renewables market “possibly too late.”
IDENTIFYING SOURCES OF RISK
Stricter regulations and energy substitution may present direct risks to the value of fossil
fuel reserves and indirect risks to the value of fixed assets that are ”locked in” to burning
fossil fuel reserves. Hence, the first step in addressing risks of carbon stranded assets
requires identifying holdings in companies that own fossil fuel reserves and companies
whose business activities are highly carbon-intensive.
CONCENTRATION IN A FEW SECTORS
Measuring the extent of fossil fuel reserves holdings and carbon-intensity of business
activities across a broad, diversified portfolio replicating the MSCI ACWI Index shows the risk
of potential carbon stranded assets was highly concentrated, as of January 15, 2015.
ï‚·
Proven and probable coal, oil and gas reserves: Unsurprisingly, the risk of stranded
assets was highest in the Energy sector, representing more than 80% of total fossil
fuel reserves.
ï‚·
Sector exposure: The three most intensive sectors – Utilities, Materials, Energy —
accounted for more than 80% of the total direct and indirect carbon emissions in
the sample portfolio replicating the MSCI ACWI Index as of January 15, 2015 (Exhibit
1).
This measure can act as a proxy for identifying long-lived assets at risk of
stranding as well as for evaluating a company’s contribution to climate change.
15
GDF Suez writes off 14.9bn as value of power plants falls, Financial Times, February 27, 2014. (Subscription required)
16
EON Banks on Renewables in Split from Conventional Power, Bloomberg¸December 1, 2014
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ï‚·
Issuer exposure: In the sample portfolio, the top fifth of companies with direct and
indirect emissions in absolute terms accounted for more than 80% of the total
emissions of the universe during the examination period. Similarly, 13 companies
accounted for more than 50% of the total potential future emissions from burning
current reserves held by MSCI ACWI Index constituents, as of June 2014 (Exhibit 2).
Exhibit 1: Current and Future Carbon Emissions
350000
4000
300000
3500
Future Carbon Emissions from Reserves in Mt
Direct & Indirect Carbon Emissions in Mt
4500
250000
3000
2500
200000
2000
150000
1500
100000
1000
50000
500
0
0
Direct & Indirect Carbon Emissions Mt
Future Carbon Emissions from Reserves Mt
Source: MSCI ESG Research
As of January 15, 2015
Exhibit 2: Leading ACWI Constituents in Carbon Reserves and Emissions
Top 5 companies with Reserves in ACWI
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Coal India
GAZPROM
China Coal
China Shenhua
PEABODY
Top 5 largest emitters in ACWI (scope 1+2)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Huaneng Power
Kepco
Datang
NTPC
China Resources Power
Source: MSCI
Data as of June 2014
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BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
CONCENTRATION BY FUEL TYPE
Fossil fuels vary quite dramatically in their carbon content, resulting in concentration of
carbon stranded risks in a relative handful of companies and industries. Coal is by far the
most carbon intensive fuel type, emitting roughly twice as much carbon emissions per
kilowatt hour (kwh) than natural gas. While companies with coal reserves represented a
small proportion of the total reserves in ACWI constituents, those companies accounted for
more than half of the potential future emissions embedded in the MSCI ACWI Index
constituents as of February 25, 2015 (Exhibit 3).17
Exhibit 3: Fossil Fuel Reserves Held by ACWI Constituents
Source: MSCI ESG Research
As of February 25, 2015
Unconventional resources (e.g., oil sands, shale oil/gas) have higher carbon content than
conventional fuels. In addition to higher carbon intensity, their extraction can be costly
because of various geological, technical and environmental challenges.
Although oil sands
have been targeted as being particularly climate-unfriendly, they comprised a very small
amount of potential emissions from MSCI ACWI constituents. We estimate that oil sands
accounted for approximately 1% of the total future potential emissions of the MSCI ACWI
Index and that less than 20% of companies with oil and gas reserves in the Energy sector
owned oil sands reserves.
17
Only companies with fossil fuel reserves used for energy purposes were taken into account in this analysis. Steel
companies owning metallurgical coal reserves were not included as there is no viable alternative to make steel than using
metallurgical coal.
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KEY PARAMETERS FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
Now that the sources of current and future emissions have been discussed, let’s examine
how investors can address carbon risk exposure in their portfolios.
Asset owners differ widely in terms of their investment beliefs and constraints when it
comes to assessing their carbon-related risk. Thus, the approaches they use may vary
significantly. Investors may fall along a wide spectrum based on four key parameters.
ï‚·
Short-term risk
ï‚·
Long-term thesis
ï‚·
Stakeholder communication
ï‚·
Public stance
SHORT-TERM RISK
Institutional investors differ in the constraints they face or the appetite they have for
deviating from the benchmark and market exposure in the short term. How much tracking
error risk they are willing to bear is a major factor in determining which approaches to
lowering carbon exposure are acceptable.
LONG-TERM THESIS
Investors fully convinced of the stranded asset thesis may take into account long-term risks
to their portfolios.
Hence, they may amend their traditional risk/return investment analysis
and integrate this long-term view as a key determinant in their investment strategy. The
strength of their belief in the long-term thesis may have to be weighed against potential
return deviations. In addition, it is not clear how long it may take for long-term risks that
impact asset values to materialize.
STAKEHOLDER COMMUNICATION
In addition to their investment beliefs, institutions face pressure from stakeholders that may
affect their choice of approach to lowering carbon exposure; some approaches are much
simpler to communicate to a less financially sophisticated audience.
The fossil fuel
divestment campaign that is being championed by the non-profit organization 350.org is one
example of the pressure that some U.S. university endowments are facing.
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PUBLIC STANCE
Many large institutional investors regard themselves as permanent or “universal” owners18
who cannot diversify away long-term risks to their portfolios. Hence, some investors may
employ a variety of tactics to reduce those risks by taking a more public stance. For example,
they may engage with companies with poor corporate practices, selectively divest a small
set of companies to help set minimum corporate standards and collaborate with other asset
owners to influence policymaking. Some institutions also have committed to display high
levels of transparency on the impact of their investments on social and environmental
issues, including their contribution to climate change.19
18
A Universal Owner is defined as a longâ€term owner of a diversified investment portfolio that is spread across the entire
market or markets.
As a result, Universal Owners collectively own a share of the economy and are effectively tied into
this share in the longer term. They depend on the global markets to produce economic growth on a sustainable basis and
thus manage their longer-term risk through asset allocation and active ownership practices.
19
In fact, a movement among institutional investors to measure and publicly disclose their carbon footprint has been
gaining momentum. Signatories to the Montreal Pledge commit to measure and disclosure the carbon footprint of their
investments annually, beginning with their equity portfolios.
Similarly, members of the Portfolio Decarbonization Coalition
commit to measuring and disclosing the carbon exposure of their portfolios but also to reducing their portfolios’ carbon
exposure by at least USD 100 billion. In addition, nearly 350 institutional investors representing more than USD 24 trillion
in assets signed the Global Investor Statement, asking policymakers to create a meaningful price for carbon emissions19
and to reach an ambitious climate change agreement that would affect corporate and regulatory behavior.
http://investorsonclimatechange.org/
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REDUCING CARBON RISK EXPOSURE
Investors’ sensitivity to the four key parameters will affect how they approach reduction in
their exposure to carbon-intensive companies. In this section, we explore more traditional
selection-based options available to investors as well as a more innovative approach based
on weighting and a hybrid approach that combines selection and weighting approaches.
The choice of the investment strategy – re-weighting versus selection – will depend on
sensitivity to the above-mentioned four key parameters: short-term risk, long-term thesis,
stakeholder communication and public stance.
Exhibit 4: Re-weighting vs. Selection
Re-weighting
Short-term risk
Long-term thesis
Stakeholder communication
Public stance
Selection
Allows for different
techniques (e.g., optimization)
to manage short-term risk
Aims to minimize exposure to
companies most vulnerable to
stranded assets
Tracking error is ignored in
favor of longer-term
considerations
Exposure to companies most
vulnerable to stranded assets
depends on selection
approach
Conducive to public
communication with
stakeholders when targeting
key sectors or high profile
companies
Makes strong public
statement that investor aims
to influence corporate
behavior
Communication to
stakeholders is more
challenging due to the more
complex nature of the
approach
Allows investment in the full
universe and keep
communication channels
open with companies
SELECTION STRATEGIES: SIMPLER COMMUNICATIONS BUT SHORT-TERM RISK
Up until now, much of the attention on reducing carbon exposure has focused on
divestment of companies in the fossil fuel sectors.20 This selection-based approach partially
reduces carbon exposure risk, focusing on avoiding potential long-term risks from holding
stocks of companies whose value is derived from reserves that may be unburnable in a
future regulatory or technological scenario. However, a selection-based approach ignores
short-term financial risks of deviating from the benchmark.
Additionally, a selection-based
20
Some investors also have examined “clean energy” indexes that tend to be focused on companies principally engaged
in alternative energy field. However, such indexes tend to be very narrow, small cap-oriented and thus capacityconstrained.
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approach focused on fossil fuel reserves fails to capture the risk that “fixed assets” that are
locked into burning fossil fuels become stranded in a carbon-constrained future.
•
•
MSCI’s Fossil Fuel Exclusion Indexes and MSCI ex Coal Indexes aim to reflect
these approaches by focusing exclusively on fossil fuel reserves. The MSCI Fossil
Fuels Exclusion Indexes aim to eliminate 100% of carbon reserves exposure by
excluding companies that own oil, gas and coal reserves. The MSCI ACWI ex
Fossil Fuels Index eliminated the parent index’s exposure to potential carbon
emissions by excluding 127 stocks, representing 8.0% of the MSCI ACWI Index’s
market capitalization, as of November 28, 2014. This approach incurred tracking
error of 100 basis points over the analyzed period, as can be seen in Exhibit 5.
The MSCI ex Coal Indexes aims to significantly reduce carbon reserves exposure
found in the parent index by excluding solely companies that own coal reserves.
The MSCI ACWI ex Coal Index experienced a 44% reduction in potential carbon
emissions by excluding only 28 stocks, representing just 1.1% of the MSCI ACWI
Index market capitalization.
The ex coal investment strategy experienced only
30 bps in tracking error over the study period while still enabling investors to
maximize the communication aspect of this approach.
During the four-year period studied, returns for both the MSCI ACWI ex Coal Index and
MSCI ACWI ex Fossil Fuels Index surpassed the MSCI ACWI Index, reflecting the poor
performance of the energy sector.
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MSCI.COM | PAGE 16 OF 28
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BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
Exhibit 5: Key Metrics of the MSCI ACWI ex Coal and Ex Fossil Fuels Indexes
Key Metrics
1
Total Return* (%)
Total Risk* (%)
Return/Risk
Sharpe Ratio
Active Return* (%)
Tracking Error* (%)
Information Ratio
Historical Beta
Turnover** (%)
Active Share (%)^
#securities excluded
% market cap excluded
Carbon emissions (Gt)^
Reduction from benchmark
Carbon reserves (Gt)
Reduction from benchmark
Carbon Emission Intensity (t CO2/mm USD)
Reduction from benchmark
Carbon Reserves Normalized by Market Cap (t CO2/mm USD)
Reduction from benchmark
2
3
MSCI ACWI
MSCI ACWI ex Coal Index
MSCI ACWI ex Fossil Fuels Index
11.4
13.3
0.86
0.84
0.0
0.0
NA
1.00
2.0
NA
NA
NA
7.0
11.7
13.1
0.89
0.88
0.3
0.3
1.18
0.99
2.2
1.1
28
1.1
6.7
4%
98
44%
239
4%
2,763
44%
12.5
12.8
0.97
0.96
1.1
1.0
1.06
0.96
2.3
8.0
127
8.0
5.7
18%
0
100%
217
13%
0
100%
175
248
4,964
* Gross returns annualized in USD for the 11/30/2010 to 11/28/2014 period
** Annualized one-way index turnover for the 11/30/2010 to 11/28/2014 period
WEIGHTING STRATEGIES: SHORT-TERM VS. LONG-TERM FINANCIAL RISK
Institutional investors face a trade-off between short-term and long-term risk when seeking
to increase exposure to more carbon-efficient companies and to lower exposure to large
current and future carbon emitters. In the long run, investors may reduce the risk of
emitters’ stocks underperforming from future and unforeseen changes in environmental
regulations, technological changes or market forces. In shorter time periods, however, the
low carbon portfolio may lag a “traditional” broad equity market portfolio because of
differences in their weighting strategies, e.g., an underweight in energy stocks may cause
relative underperformance relative to the benchmark when energy sectors outperforms the
market, and thus be considered sub-optimal.
The alternative of trying to keep a low carbon
indexed portfolio as close as possible to a broad market portfolio may have no significant
impact on the carbon exposure of the portfolio and thus may not mitigate related long-term
financial risks related to carbon stranded assets.
The MSCI Global Low Carbon Target Indexes aim to resolve this dilemma by first reweighting the portfolio to minimize carbon exposure and then using portfolio optimization
techniques to reduce short-term risk to the parent index.21 Thus, the indexes attempt to
address both short-term and long-term risks.
21
For more detail, see MSCI Global Low Carbon Target Indexes Methodology.
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MSCI.COM | PAGE 17 OF 28
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BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
The MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target Index exhibited ex-post tracking error of 40 basis points
relative to the parent MSCI ACWI Index for the four-year period ended November 28, 2014
(Exhibit 6). This low ex-post tracking error was achieved while significantly lowering the
carbon exposure of the index compared to the parent index. Carbon emission intensity
(defined as tons of CO2 equivalents emitted per million dollars of sales) was reduced by 78%
compared to the parent index; the reduction in the potential carbon emissions normalized
by market cap (measured as tons of CO2 equivalent per million dollars of market
capitalization) was 97%.
Exhibit 6: Key Metrics of the MSCI Global Low Carbon Target Index
Key Metrics
2
MSCI ACWI
Total Return* (%)
Total Risk* (%)
Return/Risk
Sharpe Ratio
Active Return* (%)
Tracking Error* (%)
Information Ratio
Historical Beta
Turnover** (%)
Active Share (%)^
#securities excluded
% market cap excluded
Carbon emissions (Gt)^
Reduction from benchmark
Carbon reserves (Gt)
Reduction from benchmark
Carbon Emission Intensity (t CO2/mm USD)
Reduction from benchmark
Carbon Reserves Normalized by Market Cap (t CO2/mm USD)
Reduction from benchmark
1
MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target
11.4
13.3
0.86
0.84
0.0
0.0
NA
1.00
2.0
NA
NA
NA
7.0
11.8
13.2
0.89
0.88
0.4
0.4
0.98
1.00
12.5
21.8
0
0.0
1.3
81%
5
97%
54
78%
155
97%
175
248
4,964
* Gross returns annualized in USD for the 11/30/2010 to 11/28/2014 period
** Annualized one-way index turnover for the 11/30/2010 to 11/28/2014 period
Finding the optimal level of carbon exposure
Investors can also expand the desired level of tracking error in an effort to reduce carbon
exposure. However, empirical evidence suggested that increases in the ex-ante tracking
error budget beyond a certain limit resulted in only a marginal corresponding reduction in
carbon exposure, as can be seen in Exhibit 7.
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. BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
Exhibit 7: Increasing Tracking Error Budget Yields Diminishing Results
Reduction in Carbon Emission Intensity versus Tracking Error Budget
Carbon Exposure of Simulated Index
(as % of Parent Index)
100%
ACWI Index
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
ACWI Low Carbon Target Index
30%
20%
10%
0%
0
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
Tracking Error Budget (in %)
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
Data as of November 2014
OVER-WEIGHTING AND SELECTING STRATEGIES: THE MIDDLE ROAD
A strategy that accounts for short-term and long-term financial risks while retaining the
ability to make strong public statements offers another option. Under this approach, reweighting and selection may very well be combined into one single strategy. The MSCI
Global Low Carbon Leaders Indexes aim to select the companies with low carbon emissions
relative to sales and those with low potential carbon emissions per dollar of market
capitalization. They also aim to minimize the ex-ante tracking error relative to the marketcap weighted parent index while reducing carbon exposure by at least 50%.
The result is that the Leaders Index may have had an overall smaller reduction in carbon
impact than the Target Index.22 A comparison of the tracking error budgets of the Global
Low Carbon Target Index and the ACWI Low Carbon Leaders Index can be seen in Exhibit 8;
further detail is presented in Exhibit 9.
22
For details, see MSCI Global Low Carbon Leaders indexes Methodology
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MSCI.COM | PAGE 19 OF 28
. BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
Exhibit 8: Comparison of Tracking Error Budget of Low Carbon Target and Leaders Indexes
MSCI Global Low Carbon
Target Index
Tracking Error Budget
Carbon Emission
Intensity (t CO2/mm
USD)
Carbon Reserves
Normalized by Market
Cap (t CO2/mm USD)
MSCI ACWI Low Carbon
Leaders Index
Aims to minimize carbon
exposure with 30 bps ex-ante
tracking error budget
78%
Aims to minimize ex-ante
tracking error after least carbonefficient companies are excluded
50%
97%
50%
Exhibit 9: Key Metrics of the MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Leaders Index
Key Metrics
1
2
MSCI ACWI
Total Return* (%)
Total Risk* (%)
Return/Risk
Sharpe Ratio
Active Return* (%)
Tracking Error* (%)
Information Ratio
Historical Beta
Turnover** (%)
Active Share (%)^
#securities excluded
% market cap excluded
Carbon emissions (Gt)^
Reduction from benchmark
Carbon reserves (Gt)
Reduction from benchmark
Carbon Emission Intensity (t CO2/mm USD)
Reduction from benchmark
Carbon Reserves Normalized by Market Cap (t CO2/mm USD)
Reduction from benchmark
MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Leaders
11.4
13.3
0.86
0.84
0.0
0.0
NA
1.00
2.0
NA
NA
NA
7.0
11.6
13.3
0.88
0.86
0.2
0.5
0.49
1.00
6.2
16.2
497
15.5
3.7
47%
88
50%
124
50%
2,482
50%
175
248
4,964
* Gross returns annualized in USD for the 11/30/2010 to 11/28/2014 period
** Annualized one-way index turnover for the 11/30/2010 to 11/28/2014 period
The MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Leaders Index also experienced higher tracking error (0.5%)
with respect to the parent index than the MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target Index (0.4%). As a
reminder, the ex-ante tracking error is constrained for the Target Index; in contrast, ex-ante
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MSCI.COM | PAGE 20 OF 28
.
BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
tracking error is minimized after the selection of most carbon-efficient securities for the
ACWI Leaders Index. As a result, there is no upper bound on the value of the tracking error
for the Low Carbon Leaders Index.
COMPARING THE DIFFERENT APPROACHES: WHAT MATTERS?
Institutional investors have a variety of options dependent upon their investment beliefs
and constraints, as well as their available resources and willingness to take a public stance.
MSCI Low Carbon Indexes, which can form the basis for portfolios, target different levels of
carbon exposure reduction, across both dimensions of carbon risk, i.e., current carbon
emissions and fossil fuel reserves, at different levels of tracking errors while offering similar
risk and return profiles.
•
Selecting companies not active in the coal industry is the closest to a
“traditional” market capitalization-weighted portfolio as the MSCI ACWI ex Coal
Index excluded fewer than 30 stocks globally and thus yields the lowest realized
tracking error to the parent index among all solutions, though it achieves only a
44% reduction in future potential carbon emissions. Use of such an approach
does, however, provide a clear and targeted statement.
•
The pure re-weighting approach using optimization, illustrated with the MSCI
Global Low Carbon Target Indexes, yielded by far the largest carbon exposure
reduction both in terms of current and future emissions while keeping a tight
control on tracking error. The Target Indexes have a complex methodology,
making it tougher to explain stances to stakeholders but they also allow
investors to engage carbon-intensive companies over their practices.
•
The balanced approach of re-weighting stocks that first excludes carbonintensive companies from the universe, i.e., the MSCI Global Low Carbon
Leaders Indexes, exhibited as expected a reduction in both carbon exposure
reduction and tracking error during the relevant period.
This approach has
slightly underperformed the pure re-weighting approach using optimization to
yield the highest carbon reduction and outperformed the pure selection
approach as it did not use any re-weighting techniques in the period studied.
Investors can readily communicate to stakeholders that the Leaders Indexes
explicitly exclude major polluters (though the optimization methodology is
more complex).
We summarize the pros and cons of the global Low Carbon indexes and the MSCI Fossil Fuels
Exclusion Indexes and compare key metrics of the indexes to the parent in Exhibits 10, 11
and 12, respectively.
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MSCI.COM | PAGE 21 OF 28
.
BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
Exhibit 10: Comparison of Global Low Carbon and Global Fossil Fuels Exclusions Indexes
MSCI Global Fossil Fuels
Exclusion Index
MSCI Global Low
Carbon Target Index
MSCI Global Low
Carbon Leaders Index
Approach used
in index design
Selection
Re-Weighting
Selection + ReWeighting
Short term risk
Not considered
Uses optimization to
reduce tracking error
to parent index
Uses optimization to
reduce tracking error
to parent index
Long term thesis
Exposure reduction
based solely on selecting
companies with low
fossil fuel reserves
Uses optimization to
reduce exposure to
companies most
vulnerable to
stranded assets (i.e.,
exposed to current
and future emissions)
while retaining
complete opportunity
set
Exposure reduction
based on selecting
companies with low
current carbon
emission and low
fossil fuel reserves
Stakeholder
communication
Transparent and simple
methodology
Sophisticated
methodology, could
be more difficult to
explain
Selection
methodology is
transparent and
simple BUT weighting
methodology could
be more difficult to
explain
Public Stance
Excluding stocks makes
strong public statement
Allows for
engagement with
companies
Excluding stocks
makes strong public
statement
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MSCI.COM | PAGE 22 OF 28
. BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
Exhibit 11: Key Metrics of MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Indexes
MSCI ACWI MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target
Total Return* (%)
Total Risk* (%)
Return/Risk
Sharpe Ratio
Active Return* (%)
Tracking Error* (%)
Information Ratio
Historical Beta
Turnover** (%)
Active Share (%)^
#securities excluded
% market cap excluded
11.4
13.3
0.86
0.84
0.0
0.0
NA
1.00
2.0
NA
NA
NA
11.8
13.2
0.89
0.88
0.4
0.4
0.98
1.00
12.5
21.8
0
0.0
MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Leaders
MSCI ACWI ex Coal Index
MSCI ACWI ex Fossil Fuels Index
11.6
13.3
0.88
0.86
0.2
0.5
0.49
1.00
6.2
16.2
497
15.5
11.7
13.1
0.89
0.88
0.3
0.3
1.18
0.99
2.2
1.1
28
1.1
12.5
12.8
0.97
0.96
1.1
1.0
1.06
0.96
2.3
8.0
127
8.0
Exhibit 12: Current and Potential Carbon Emissions by Index
Current Carbon Emissions
8.0
7.0
6.0
in Gt CO2
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
MSCI ACWI
MSCI ACWI Low MSCI ACWI Low
Carbon Target Carbon Leaders
MSCI ACWI ex
MSCI ACWI ex
Coal Index
Fossil Fuels Index
Potential Carbon Emissions
200
180
160
in Gt CO2
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
MSCI ACWI
MSCI ACWI Low MSCI ACWI Low
Carbon Target Carbon Leaders
MSCI ACWI ex
MSCI ACWI ex
Coal Index
Fossil Fuels Index
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. BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
Structurally under weighting energy
Low carbon and fossil fuels exclusion approaches generally displayed significant
underweights to the energy sector. Consequently, funds tracking these indexes
generally underperformed the parent index when energy stocks thrived.
Conversely, these indexes outperformed the parent when the energy sector
posted negative performance.
Exhibit 13: Cyclicality of Global Energy Sector
Relative Performance
300
250
200
150
100
MSCI ACWI Energy Index/ MSCI ACWI Index
50
Dec-98
Mar-02
May-05
Jul-08
Sep-11
Nov-14
Source: MSCI
As illustrated above, the global energy sector displayed cyclical behavior with
years of outperformance followed by years of underperformance. This is one of
the important drivers of the positive relative performance of the MSCI Low
Carbon and MSCI Fossil Fuels Exclusion Indexes described above for the period
November 2010 to November 2014.
As a word of caution, it is important to understand that if and when the energy
sector recovers, these indexes may experience periods of underperformance
compared to broad market benchmarks.
© 2015 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved.
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MSCI.COM | PAGE 24 OF 28
. BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
CONCLUSION
Approaches based on divesting certain sectors effectively can help asset owners
communicate their concerns about the risks of climate change to stakeholders. However,
they ignore short-term benchmark risk. Further, a focus on divesting reserves disregards
fixed assets that are at risk of losing value because they depend on burning fossil fuel
reserves. This paper provides a framework for evaluating ways to reduce two dimensions of
carbon exposure – current carbon emissions and potential future emissions embedded in
fossil fuel reserves.
Moreover, it explores new and more financially viable ways of managing
carbon risk based on institutional investors’ tolerance for short-term risk, the long-term risk
of holding stranded assets, the importance of stakeholder communications and their
readiness to take a public stance.
Investors can evaluate different MSCI index options that could be used as the basis for
portfolios. They are designed to meet the needs of various institutional investors:
ï‚·
The MSCI Fossil Fuels Exclusion Indexes seek to exclude companies owning fossil
fuel reserves. This selection-based approach enables investors to reflect a desire or
need for clear stakeholder communication but it ignores short-term tracking error
risk.
ï‚·
The MSCI Global Low Carbon Target Indexes use a re-weighting methodology that
seeks to increase exposure to more carbon-efficient companies and decrease
exposure to large current and future emitters.
These indexes are designed to
account for both short-term and long-term risks and use optimization techniques to
manage exposures while aiming to minimize deviation from the parent index in
terms of risk and return characteristics.
ï‚·
The MSCI Global Low Carbon Leaders Indexes methodology uses a hybrid approach,
selecting companies with low current carbon emissions and low potential carbon
emissions while optimizing the index to take short- and long-term risks into account.
This approach excludes the least carbon-efficient companies, helps investors to
communicate their views to stakeholders and support a public stance, though the
indexes may not achieve the same level of carbon reduction as the Target Indexes.
With the use of more sophisticated techniques, investors can now explore index-based
approaches that aim to reduce short-term risk as well as the long-term risk associated with
carbon exposure. In addition, these approaches are more expansive than traditional
approaches, encompassing both current and future emissions, going to the heart of risk
mitigation.
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MSCI.COM | PAGE 25 OF 28
. BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
APPENDIX: ASSET OWNERS EMBRACE LOW CARBON
Over the past 12 to 24 months, a growing number of large asset owners globally have
announced that they plan to gear an increasing portion of their investments towards the
“green” investments in general and towards low carbon solutions in particular. Some major
asset owners believe that global warming may be a key risk factor in the long run that could
affect their ability to meet future obligations. A growing number are integrating low carbon
investments in their tactical or even strategic asset allocation.
Institutions Adopt Low Carbon Approaches: Use Cases
Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund (AP4) and Fonds de Réserve pour les Retraites (FRR)
AP4 and FRR announced jointly in September 2014 that they would each invest up to 1
billion Euros in low carbon investment solutions to reduce the carbon footprint of their
global portfolios.23 Both institutional investors have been active in environmental issues for
a number of years and believe that carbon is a major issue for the broad investment
community, for environmental and financial risk reasons. Both invested in passive indexed
solutions based on the MSCI Global Low Carbon Leaders Index methodology.
The United Nations Joint Staff Pension Fund (UNJSPF)
Following the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Summit in September, the UNJSPF provided
seed capital totalling USD 150 million to two low carbon Exchange Traded Funds based on
the MSCI Global Low Carbon Target Index methodology.24
Stanford University
Stanford University said in May 2014 that its endowment fund would sell off all its holdings
in coal mining companies,25 becoming the largest U.S.
institution to join the growing number
of colleges divesting from fossil fuels because of concerns about climate change. The
decision to divest from coal mining companies was based on the view that “burning coal for
electricity created high levels of carbon dioxide emissions, and there were other sources for
power that could be readily substituted and did less damage to the environment.” The
university’s endowment fund would not sell its holdings in oil and gas companies, on the
grounds that suitable alternatives to those fuels are not readily available.
23
MSCI Launches Innovative Family of Low Carbon Indexes , September 2014.
24
UNJSPF Performance and Asset Allocation, December 2014
25
Stanford to divest from coal companies , Stanford Report, May 2014
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. BEYOND DIVESTMENT: USING LOW CARBON INDEXES | APRIL 2015
CONTACT US
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ABOUT MSCI ESG RESEARCH PRODUCTS
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ABOUT MSCI
For more than 40 years, MSCI’s researchbased indexes and analytics have helped
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