Current Views on Gold
Commentary
As of March 9, 2016
Gold has rallied as stock prices have fallen. In this brief commentary, Portfolio Manager Thomas Kertsos and
Research Analyst Max Belmont reflect on gold’s recent performance and offer their insights into current trends.
What recent changes have you seen in the gold market?
In the first weeks of 2016, concerns about a steeper economic slowdown in China and a possible banking crisis in
Europe drove the US stock market1 down around 11% and gold up 15%–18%.2 For the first time in recent years,
bad news for the economy was bad news for stocks and generally good news for gold. It is this inverse relationship
that makes gold a potential hedge against disruptive economic events. So far this year, gold has performed in line
with its traditional role as a potential hedge, both in the United States and, to an even greater degree, in weaker
economies—such as Brazil and South Africa—where currencies are under stress.
Does this mean the bear market for gold is coming to an end?
We don’t forecast the price of gold.
We believe that there are simply too many variables involved—the state of the
economy, monetary policy, real yields, currency trends, stock prices—and that the interactions among these factors
are too complex to construct a credible forecast. That’s why predicting the price of gold lies outside our philosophy.
Why should anyone consider an asset whose future price is unpredictable?
We believe gold should be held as a potential hedge against extreme market outcomes. If the real price of gold is
going up, something else is likely going down.
Investors owning gold for the right reason and in the right amount,
based on their investment profile, should be untroubled if the price of gold goes down. Historically, when this has
happened, equities or other parts of investor portfolios have generally done well. The key is to have the right capital
allocation process.
At the same time, we are mindful of certain factors that may support the price of gold. There have
been few significant gold discoveries since the 1990s, and, according to at least one analysis, gold production peaked
in 2015.3 Even if demand is volatile and hard to forecast, the supply situation for gold bullion in the coming years
should be supportive of the price.
1 S&P 500 Index
2 Source: Bloomberg
3 Consensus estimates, include CPM Group, GFMS, and Metals Focus
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. Current Views on Gold
As of March 9, 2016
Who has been buying gold?
The sources of recent gold buying have been varied. ETFs have purchased about $10.6 billion of gold by the end
of February.4 In the futures market, there has been significant short covering in 2016, but more recently, outright
long positions have also been increasing. The Chinese New Year accounted for a seasonal increase in demand in
December and January, but we believe it was not responsible for the significant buying activity that we saw in
February. Thus far, central banks have not been significant buyers of gold bullion this year.
Here, too, we don’t try to
make predictions. Buying by central banks can certainly support the price of gold, and according to the World Gold
Council, central banks transitioned in 2010 from being net sellers to net buyers of gold, but their behavior is too
unpredictable to serve as a basis for forecasting gold bullion demand trends and investing in gold.
Headlines around solvency and overall business quality for miners have been negative. What are the implications
for investors?
When we assess businesses, we focus on several criteria, like the quality of a company’s assets and its cost profile.
We
analyze the balance sheet and cash flow generation very carefully, as well as the operational execution and the capital
allocation of the management team. And we also apply detailed mine-by-mine valuation analysis to try to find the
cheapest and highest-quality ounces available. Some of our key holdings include, for example, one company with
good exploration potential, a very low cost-structure, low capital intensity, strong free-cash-flow generation, low debt
and excellent management, in our view.
Another company has significantly growing output, one of the lowest-cost
operations globally and enormous land ownership. Yet another has signed high-quality royalty deals and has a low
cost structure and little, if any, debt. In other words, even in an environment where many miners have come under
pressure, careful fundamental analysis can uncover attractive entrance points into some gold miners.
We always ask
which businesses will come out of this downturn stronger and which management teams have added value over the
last years but have been unappreciated by the market. We believe that some gold mining businesses are in far better
shape now than they were before this downturn started in 2011.
How do lower commodity prices affect gold miners’ costs?
In several countries, miners pay for a significant part of their capital projects and operating costs (excluding energy)
in local currencies. While lower energy prices have generally been helpful to miners, the greatest impact on their
costs has come from weaker local currencies in countries where some mines are located.
4 As of February 26, 2016.
Source: Bloomberg
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. Current Views on Gold
As of March 9, 2016
The use of hedging techniques is speculative and there can be no assurances any hedging technique will be effective. Investment in gold
and gold-related investments presents certain risks, including political and economic risks affecting the price of gold and other precious
metals, like changes in US or foreign tax, currency, or mining laws; increased environmental costs; international monetary and political
policies; economic conditions within an individual country; trade imbalances; and trade or currency restrictions between countries. The
price of gold, in turn, is likely to affect the market prices of securities of companies mining or processing gold, and accordingly, the value of
investments in such securities may also be affected. Gold-related investments as a group have not performed as well as the stock market
in general during periods when the US dollar is strong, inflation is low, and general economic conditions are stable.
In addition, returns on
gold-related investments have traditionally been more volatile than investments in broader equity or debt markets.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a widely recognized unmanaged index including a representative sample of 500 leading companies in
leading sectors of the U.S. economy and is not available for purchase. Although the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index focuses on the large-cap
segment of the market, with approximately 80% coverage of U.S.
equities, it is also considered a proxy for the total market. The Standard
& Poor’s 500 Index includes dividends reinvested. One cannot invest directly in an index.
The commentary represents the opinions of Thomas Kertsos, portfolio manager of the First Eagle Gold Fund and senior research analyst,
and Max Belmont, research analyst, as of March 9, 2016, and is subject to change based on market and other conditions.
The opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the entire firm. These materials are provided for informational purposes only. These opinions are not
intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, or investment advice.
Any statistics contained herein have been
obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy of this information cannot be guaranteed. The views expressed herein may
change at any time subsequent to the date of issue hereof. The information provided is not to be construed as a recommendation or an
offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any fund or security.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Investors should consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Funds and may be obtained by asking your financial adviser, visiting
our website at www.feim.com or calling us at 800.334.2143. Please read our prospectus carefully before investing.
Investments are
not FDIC insured or bank guaranteed, and may lose value.
First Eagle Funds are offered by FEF Distributors, LLC. www.feim.com
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