The First Eagle Portfolio Management Team
on the Trends Driving Global Opportunities
First Eagle’s Global Fund (SGENX) is
its flagship fund, with over $45 billion
in assets. Its mission is to seek longterm growth of capital by investing
in a range of asset classes from markets in the United States and around
the world.
Since inception (1/1/79)1 , it has returned 13.35% annually, versus 9.50%
for the MSCI World Index. Over the
last 15 years, it has been in the top
2% of its peer group, as well as in the
top 5% for 10 years and the top 15%
for 5 years, based on Morningstar
data. It was the winner of the Lipper
Best Flexible Portfolio Fund Award
for 2015.
Its managers are Matthew
B. McLennan and Kimball Brooker, Jr.
Advisor Perspectives Editor in Chief
Robert Huebscher spoke with Matt
and Kimball on January 14.
Bob: In a panel discussion back in
June, Bruce Greenwald, who is a
senior advisor to your firm, made
a number of assertions. I am going
to ask you about each of them and
how your portfolio is structured to
potentially benefit from them.
The
first one is that manufacturing is
dying and that is creating chronic
deflationary pressure.
Matt: Bruce was making the simple point that factory automation
is reducing the need for labor in
manufacturing. When he said manufacturing was dying, he wasn’t
intimating that we are producing
less things, just that it is taking less
labor to produce those things. The
analogy I draw here is if you went
back in time a century or so ago,
many people were employed in
some form of agriculture.
Today it
is a low single-digit percentage of
the economy, but we are still eating
well, perhaps too well. Jobs moved
from the agricultural sector to manufacturing sector throughout the
course of the early part of the last
century. Of course, during the last
jobs moving out of manufacturing
into services.
It takes time to retrain people. That has produced a
persistent tendency for countries
in that region to try and devalue their currency versus the dollar, which in turn has produced a
structural current-account deficit
in the United States. The quest for
is a
“ Factory automationfund.very powerfulthat
source of ideas for our
We’ve seen
in the proliferation of robotics, pneumatic
systems, electrical sensors and the like.
”
generation, it has moved progressively to the services sector.
Factory automation is a very powerful source of ideas for our fund.
We’ve seen that in the proliferation
of robotics, pneumatic systems,
electrical sensors and the like.
In
fact, if you look at our portfolios,
we have benefited from this trend
through the ownership of some of
the leading franchises in this area.
The decline of employment in
manufacturing is having a second-order effect on global systemic imbalances. Part of that is
driven by the fact that many of the
Asian economies have built their
economic miracles on manufacturing models fueled in large part
by subsidized exchange rates. As
they’ve grown rapidly through
manufacturing and moved a lot of
people from poverty into employment in manufacturing, they prospectively face the headwind of
growth through manufacturing in
Asia is fueling a savings shortfall
in the United States.
But the essential point is that factory
automation is really taking root.
Initially it was robotics for cutting and
welding tools and for basic things
like painting. But as sensing technologies improved, and software and
robotics capabilities improved, there
is the prospect of automation creeping into the assembly stage of manufacturing where most of the jobs are.
This trend is going to be with us for
quite some time; we are still in the
early days of those pressures.
Having said that, looking forward
a generation from today, I believe
it may take a lot fewer people to
produce what we are producing
now, which should free up resources for other productive enterprises. It just won’t necessarily be
a smooth journey, particularly for
those economies that have built
Performance for periods prior to January 1, 2000 occurred while a prior portfolio manager of the fund was affiliated with another firm.
Inception date
shown is when this prior portfolio manager assumed portfolio management responsibilities.
1
1
. their economic strength on manufacturing.
Bob: The second trend is that
service businesses are local in
nature and therefore may grow
to be able to earn attractive
rates of return.
Matt: I made the observation that
employment is moving from manufacturing to services. When people
think of services, often what comes
to mind are very simple things like
teaching, public relations, child
care, private event management,
restaurants, local IT services and
the like. But those are not necessarily the kinds of businesses that
generate attractive returns, because they are competitive.
When we think about service businesses that have the ability to generate attractive returns on capital,
we are very focused on businesses
that have local economies of scale.
Those businesses are orders of
magnitude larger than their nearest competitors, which makes it
more difficult for new entrants to
come into a market. We also focus
on service businesses where there
is a high degree of customer captivity, or stickiness, because it increases the cost of a new entrant
coming into those markets.
We have a range of investments
both overseas and in the United
States in areas such as telecommunications, such as KDDI, a scaled
provider of mobile and broadband
connectivity in Japan, and Secom,
also in Japan, which dominates in
the commercial services arena for
providing alarm, security services
for corporations and homes.
In the
United States, we own Comcast,
which dominates bandwidth provisioning essentially in the markets in
which it competes. We own some
of the big tech majors, like Oracle
and Microsoft; even though they are
global in nature, their dominance is
local and rooted in sales force density and customer standardization.
When we look at businesses we try to
identify those that have local economies of scale and sticky customers.
Many of these businesses are not
traditional manufacturing businesses. You may have elements of their
business that don’t require tangible
capital investment, but rather where
things like brand and process knowhow matter.
These businesses can
potentially generate very attractive
returns on their tangible capital.
Even in the world of what you would
traditionally think of as industrials and manufacturing, local market dominance matters. Think of a
company like Flowserve in pumps,
valves, and seals. Even though you
wouldn’t think of them as services,
they have material aftermarket
businesses that require density of
distribution and dealerships, with
aftermarket servicing capability
that enable them to potentially get
attractive returns on their capital.
Bob: The third trend is that the
lower 85% of households in terms
of wealth have a negative savings
rate, and it’s the remaining 15%
who are accumulating.
That’s a
catastrophe waiting to happen
because so many households
have a negative savings rate.
Matt: What Bruce was referring to
is the fact that if you look at the
overall savings rates, it has drifted up from the low levels of the
mid-2000s to just above 5%. The
debt-service ratios seem to have
improved. But when you look beneath the surface, debt-service
ratios look attractive because interest rates have been repressed.
The actual level of debt-to-income
remains fairly high.
Secondly, even though savings
2
rates are above 5%, the top 15% of
households probably save close to
40% of their income.
All the savings is coming from the top 15%
of households, which implies the
bottom 85% of households are net
dis-saving. This is a problem because it leads to recurring balance
sheet vulnerability in the economy.
If you go back to the discussion that
we had earlier about the growth of
manufacturing in the Asian economies through subsidized exchange
rates and the flow-on effects of
that to current-account deficits in
the U.S., a current-account deficit
Matthew B. McLennan
simply means that we have a structural shortage of savings relative
to investment in our economy.
It
is showing up in the lower income
households of the United States.
We are seeing that household savings and corporate profits have
done okay when the government
runs fiscal deficits that are larger
than the current-account deficit.
That means there is a surplus in the
private sector. That can work for a
short while, but if you consistently
. try to run fiscal deficits larger than
your current-account deficit in order to promote corporate profit and
household savings, you are also going to impair the sovereign balance
sheet of the United States. The U.S.
ends up with an unfavorable government debt-to-GDP ratio and
lower real returns on its government
debt as policymakers resort to interest-rate repression in an effort to
improve debt-servicing capabilities.
Lower real returns exacerbate the
problem because if people aren’t
saving enough already and they
are prospectively getting a lower
real return on their savings, they
need to save even more in the future. You get this negative feedback loop. That is the struggle that
we are dealing with here from a
global standpoint.
Bob: Gold bullion is your largest
position.
Do you own physical
gold and why do you own gold
if you believe in the scenario of
chronic deflation?
Matt: We are not intelligent
enough to know if we’re going to
have chronic deflation or inflation.
The crystal ball is foggy at best.
We believe the stock of debt in the
world is too high. If you look at the
aggregate stock of debt—household, plus corporate, plus sovereign debt—and you compare that
to GDP it is actually higher than it
was in 2007. That is a headwind to
inflation.
Creating new money supply through new debt is going to
be more challenging.
You referred to gold as our largest
position, but perhaps that’s not the
best way to think about it. The reality is our largest exposure is to the
ownership of business. If you look
at our key portfolios, over 75% is invested in the ownership of business
in one form or another where we try
to identify good businesses at good
prices.
That means we are very exposed to systemic risk.
Our goal at First Eagle has always
been to have an all-weather portfolio, one that can endure difficult
times. If we think there is too much
debt in the world, there are going
to be episodic windows of crisis.
We want a potential hedge in our
Woods agreement. You can intuitively understand why gold may
be a good potential hedge against
inflation.
If the supply of gold is flat
per capita, but the money supply
goes up, the equilibrium price of
gold ought to go up. Incidentally,
when we have inflation it tends to
be bad for equities and bonds as
well, so gold does have an obvious
supply of gold is
relative
“ Theother commoditiesvery stablevirtually
to
because
all of the gold ever produced still
exists above ground.
”
portfolio. We view gold as the best
potential hedge that we can find.
role for us as a potential hedge in
an inflationary world.
Why is that? It’s pretty simple.
Gold
is not that useful as a commodity
and its lack of utility as a commodity
is actually its usefulness as nature’s
alternative to currency. Other commodities such as oil, copper or iron
ore are useful real assets that don’t
tend to be the best hedge. When
things go bad, demand for those
commodities generally goes down
and their price has historically gone
down as we have actually seen the
last few years.
You posed the alternative question which is, why do you own it if
you feel that there is deflationary
risk due to excessive debt in the
system? My answer to that is that
there is no popular appetite—be it
in a dictatorship or a democracy—
for deflation.
When conditions are
deflationary, governments tend to
do what it takes to avoid deflation,
which typically means running
easy fiscal policy with large deficits and very easy monetary policy. That leads over time to bloated
levels of government debt. If we
look across the world today, there
are generationally high levels of
government debt relative to GDP
and financial repression.
Gold, on the other hand, has a price
that has very little correlation to
the business or the market cycles.
In the world of real assets there is
very little to own that is less sensitive to the markets than gold.
That
is the element of resilience that appeals to us.
The supply of gold is very stable
relative to other commodities because virtually all of the gold ever
produced still exists above ground.
When we look at the total stock
of gold above ground it’s actually been pretty flat on a per-capita
basis for the last 40 years, since
the breakdown of the Bretton
3
The rub against gold has always
been that it doesn’t offer an interest rate, but really, nor does
sovereign debt today as we look
around the world. The credit worthiness of sovereign debt has gone
down. Gold becomes a more feasible monetary alternative in a world
of deflation because the quality of
human-made money goes down
through fiscal deficits and financial
repression.
.
Bob: We wrote about research by
Michael Mauboussin that examined
why so many active managers
under performed in 2014. His
assertion was that this was due to
a lack of opportunities, not a lack
of skill. What is your take on his
research? How has this factored
into the level of cash that you’ve
held in your funds?
Kimball: The research piece is interesting, and we would certainly
agree with the assertion that until
recently there have been limited
opportunities in the market. But
we have a slightly different take
on and extension of Mauboussin’s
thinking.
One of the things that he
did was look back and examine the
dispersion of stock returns in 2014
and concluded that it was very,
very low, and there was a lower
likelihood for active managers to
generate excess returns. Incidentally, we think that the dispersion
of returns was also very low in 2013
and 2012.
He was looking retrospectively to
try to explain why active managers
were underperforming on a relative basis to their indices. We think
about the world a little bit differently in terms of what led to a limited set of opportunities.
Our core investment process is
very much about buying securities
at a discount to our sense of intrinsic value.
What we had seen in the
years that Mauboussin had covered in the study was elevated valuations in most of the developed
world and a very low dispersion of
valuations across different regions
and different sectors. That was really the root of the difficulty in finding opportunities to invest.
Bob: You tend to build cash
positions in bull markets when
valuations are very rich and
deploy it as the market drops.
Thinking back about the days of
Jean Marie Eveillard and other
past periods when markets were
high, how do your cash positions
look today? Moreover, you have
around 10% in gold and gold-denominated securities, as we discussed. Is this position different
from the past and is it going to
limit your ability to take advantage of declining valuations?
Matt: Let me just start on the gold.
For long time we have had approximately 10% in a combination of
gold bullion and gold securities.
Our logic has been simple.
We
view it as a potential hedge. If the
combined position were less than
5%, it wouldn’t be material enough
to provide a potential hedge to the
overall portfolio. On the other hand,
we felt a combined position in the
15% to 20% range of our portfolio
would start to become more directionally exposed to gold.
There is a
common-sense sizing of our gold
position. At around about 10%, it’s
big enough to be a material potential hedge but not so big that the
performance of the portfolio depends upon the gold price.
There could be a state of the world
where we don’t own gold. If we had
a counter-narrative of the crisis in
2008, if the financial system did
break and didn’t recover, and if faith
were lost in the current monetary
structure of the world, there is a
state of the world where gold may
become a monetary reserve again
in which case its clearing price may
be very high and it may essentially
become a cash equivalent.
At that
point, we might sell it to buy businesses at truly bargain levels. If we
look back over the last 30 years
we’ve had many episodes of financial volatility, but the system hasn’t
totally broken. So the potential
hedge has remained in place and
will do so until such time when it is
truly not required or when we feel
4
we are paying too much for that
potential hedge relative to history.
The best way to think about the
cash is that we don’t try to time
markets.
We are not top-down
in trying to predict the zigs and
zags of the market. We view cash
as deferred purchasing power. We
have, as Kimball alluded to, a very
disciplined bottom-up approach
where we only want to move out of
cash and cash equivalents into the
ownership of businesses that we
believe are conservatively valued,
conservatively capitalized and conservatively run.
When we can’t find
those opportunities, and that often
tends to be in environments where
market valuations are high, we wait.
Indeed, we tend to be trimming
stocks that have done well and that
makes the cash build further.
On the other hand, when the markets are in distress, such as in late
2008 or early 2009, we see a relative abundance of opportunities
to put the cash to work in what
we feel are conservatively valued
securities, and therefore the cash
gets invested in a countercyclical
manner. If you look at the peaks
and troughs of our cash positions,
you see that they peaked in 2007
at around 20%, and it troughed in
the single-digit percentages in the
first quarter of 2009. Cash peaked again around a year or so ago
when the environment opportunity
wasn’t rich, as Kimball referred to,
by virtue of a fairly broad bull market across many securities.
What has happened in the last 12
months, and particularly in the periodic dips, is that we have found
some opportunities to invest the
cash.
So while the markets have
gone sideways to slightly down,
beneath the surface, the market has narrowed dramatically. In
fact, if you look at the U.S., more
than 80% of securities are below
. their 200-day moving averages.
That implies that less than 20%
are moving higher relative to their
200-day moving averages. The
market has been more and more
concentrated in highly valued
securities that incorporate high
expectations about growth—the
Facebooks and Amazons2 of the
world. As the market has narrowed, that has produced some
opportunity for us in these stocks
that have not fared so well and
trade at what we consider to be
depressed valuation levels.
In addition, markets have traded off their peaks. There is some
risk perception.
We see oil prices at generational lows relative
to the cost of extraction. We see
the rest of the commodities com-
Bob: We have clearly been in a
cycle where growth has outperformed value. Do you have any
expectation for when the value
cycle will kick in? Are there any
benchmarks, events or indices
that you are observing that would
make your timeframe estimates
more precise?
Matt: Our crystal ball is foggy
here too.
It’s very hard to call
when growth and value perform
well. This cycle reminds me a little
of the late 1990s where a smaller and smaller number of hightech growth companies achieved
stratospheric valuations, whereas
some of the old economy became
very cheap. Ironically when the
markets corrected, the old-economy stocks generally held up pretty
about the cash that
“ The best way to think markets.
We areisnot
we don’t try to time
top-down in trying to predict the zigs
and zags of the market.
plex and many of the industrial
companies being pretty weak.
We see some instances of higher spreads in the bond market.
If we look at other measures of
risk perception, such as implied
volatility for hedging the S&P, it
has gone from below average to
above average. The recessionary
conditions in the old economy—
the manufacturing economy—
and the commodities complex
have produced some opportunities. But the market is by no
means as distressed as we saw
in late 2008 and early 2009.
So
our cash level sits firmly between
the peaks and troughs of the last
seven or eight years at around a
mid-teens percentage.
”
well in absolute terms while many
tech stocks collapsed.
When growth outperforms for a
sustained period of time the market narrows because you have fewer and fewer companies getting
to higher and higher valuations,
meeting elevated levels of expectation. One at a time they eventually start to disappoint. We have
seen market darlings from a couple
of years ago weaken substantially
on the back of disappointing earnings relative to elevated growth expectations.
On the other hand, if you look at the
value universe, these are typically
businesses that incorporate much
more modest expectations about
future growth.
They tend to be
more mature businesses and sometimes more exposed to the business cycle. When market fears rise,
as they have with China slowing
down, some of these businesses
de-rate and are priced to reflect
a more cyclically challenging
environment.
That was again the case in the
late 1990s. Ironically, what turned
things around was a combination
of growth rates disappointing in the
more elevated areas of the market.
When the cyclical fears turned into
an actual reality – a recessionary
reality—you saw a fiscal and monetary policy easing.
Those who traded the more mature stocks started
to look forward at that moment
to better times ahead, and value
generally outperformed growth
quite a bit.
We don’t know what is going to
happen at this time, but my guess
is if we saw dramatic policy easing
in China or if the Fed in response
to weaker markets and weaker corporate profits does not raise interest rates as much as expected, that
could set a more benign backdrop
for some of the lower expectation
securities in the marketplace today.
But we just don’t know.
Bob: Turning overseas, what
are the economic and market
implications of the drawdown in
China’s foreign-exchange reserves,
and how is that affecting your
investment decisions?
Matt: This links into our prior discussion on the growth of manufacturing in China and the deflationary
forces in the world more broadly,
and the savings investment imbalances in the US. Basically, China
The top 10 largest contributors to performance for the S&P 500 Index for the year ending 12/31/2015 were Amazon, Microsoft, General Electric, Alphabet,
Facebook, Home Depot, Starbucks, Netflix, McDonald’s and Visa.
2
5
. grew dramatically through much
of the last 15 or 20 years by having an exchange rate that was essentially undervalued relative to its
equilibrium level. That helped its
manufacturing sector become very
competitive on the global stage
and they grew their export businesses dramatically.
Over the last four or five years China’s exchange rate, until recently,
was modestly appreciating and
they had much more growth in
wages than prices. So in real effective terms, the Chinese exchange
rate went from being at a discount
to intrinsic value to a premium. As
that has occurred, somewhat predictably, its manufacturing sector
has started to slow down.
That is
in addition to the unwinding of a
construction boom and the secular
headwinds we talked about—factory automation and the impact of
that on related markets. As that has
occurred, the Chinese have started
to resort again to weakening their
currency to try to stimulate a little
bit more growth to halt the slowdown in their economy.
While it was going through that
prior phase, it kept its exchange
rate depressed by accumulating
foreign reserves. It was essentially selling its local currency and
buying dollars.
That was akin to
increasing the money supply in
China and it increased the money
supply to the world. Now that that
is going into reverse, the Chinese
are using their reserves to slow
the decline in their exchange rate
to try and manage it at a modest
rate of decline. That is almost like
a reverse QE for the world.
To the extent that China was the
epicenter of global monetary creation, it is starting to reverse and
slow at the margin through the sale
of its reserves.
That and the end to
U.S. QE has had some impact on
weakening commodity prices and
things that are sensitive to the
money supply.
We have not seen the full ramifications yet. Chinese money supply measures, such as M2, are still
greater than U.S.
money supply
expressed in USD terms. Chinese
currency has not depreciated
enough for us to say it is outright
undervalued versus other currencies. We could be stuck with these
more
complicated
monetary
trends for a while.
Bob: You have a substantial allocation of assets in Japan.
Have
you hedged the currency risk
there, and if not, why not? And
more broadly, many have argued
for the ongoing strength of the
dollar in large part because of its
status as the reserve currency.
How has that view affected your
overall approach to currency
hedging?
Kimball: We do hedge, although
when we think about hedging currencies, we think about the hedge
through a prism of our sense of
the fundamental values of the currencies. We have some very fundamental analytical approaches
to thinking about currency valuation that range from longer-term
purchasing-power-parity models
to analysis around exchange rates
that would be necessary to bring
current-account balances into
equilibrium.
We do think carefully about the
values of these currencies relative
to the dollar. As the yen has weakened, our sense is that its value has
gotten cheaper relative to the dollar and we have let our hedge on
the yen roll down and effectively
we are not hedged on it.
Now that
could change if our sense of the
value of the yen changes. We have
a small hedge on the euro, but it
6
has also rolled down over the last
two or three years.
Bob: Coming back to the US now,
are you finding value anywhere in
the energy sector?
Kimball: Not surprisingly, as oil has
drifted down from $100 a barrel to
$30 a barrel, it’s been an area of research focus for us. We have seen
some opportunities.
The opportunities have been less pronounced
in traditional exploration companies. Where we have found opportunities to be is in companies like
Flowserve, which Matt mentioned
and is a fluid-control business.
They make pumps and valves. The
stock is down as a result of some
aftermarket, or end-market exposure to the energy sector, but it has
what we believe is very clean balance sheet.
It has other businesses. It has an aftermarket business
that we think gives it persistency
as a business. We think it is very
well-managed.
The capital that we have allocated that’s been connected to the
energy sector has not been in the
traditional exploration companies.
It has more been in service businesses that provide equipment, or
manufacture equipment for that
sector.
Bob: The size of your fund has
grown considerably.
It is now a
little over $45 billion. How are
you avoiding the problems of
asset bloat? Are you still able to
efficiently and effectively invest
in small-cap stocks for which the
fund has been noted?
Kimball: We are all very focused
on seeking to deliver the return
and the risk level investors expect
and we are mindful of the capacity of our fund. At the size we are
at now, very, very small cap or micro-cap companies are going to
.
have less of a pronounced impact
on the performance of the fund.
That said, we do have a team
of people who spend their time
looking at small-cap companies.
They’re going to continue to have
a presence in our strategies.
Matt: We continue to invest across
the market-cap range. We have a
number of companies that are $4,
$5, $6, $7 billion mid-cap companies. In fact, if you look at our portfolios today, we tend to be underrepresented in the mega-caps and
Kimball Brooker, Jr.
much more represented in the midcap arena than the broader market.
We are open-minded where we go.
We value diversification. We have
over 100 investments in the portfolio.
This has been true for a very
long time. But we have a range of
eclectic positions. We tend to be a
little more diversified, which gives
us a little bit more flexibility than
you might think.
There are other factors that help
us in terms of managing our pool
of capital, and the most important
is that we are extremely long-term
investors.
Our average turnover is
well below 20%, often it is in the low
teens. We have an average holding
period typically in the five- to 10year range. The amount of turnover
that we have generated in our portfolio has been quite low relative to
our portfolio size, much to the chagrin of Wall Street no doubt.
There
are probably many small hedge
funds that generate more turnover
than we do in a year.
As we’ve mentioned before, we
are not fully invested in equities.
We have a position in gold, and we
tend to have a countercyclical approach to cash, so we tend to be
selling stocks when liquidity is best
and we tend to have the cash and
cash equivalents and be putting
them to work when everyone is
worried and there are anxious sellers. We believe our countercyclical approach to deploying capital
helps as well.
Bob: First Eagle Global significantly outperformed its benchmark in 2008. Starting in 2009,
despite outperforming its category, it has underperformed its
benchmark, although, not nearly
by as much as most other value
funds.
To what do you attribute
your success in 2008? And what
is your opinion about what’s happened since then and why might
that change?
Kimball: The fund performed relatively well in 2008. It was a lesson
in the notion that what you don’t
own in a portfolio can often be a
very important driver, a more important driver than what you do
own. One of the very important
things that we attempt to avoid
are companies that have high
levels of debt or have opaque
balance sheets.
One of the key
reasons that the fund did rela7
tively well in 2008 was because
we didn’t own any of the big financials that got themselves into
trouble. That really came about
because of our underwriting requirements.
Since then the fund has done reasonably well against some other
value funds but has lagged against
some of the broader benchmarks.
That’s a reflection of the fact that
as the markets recovered our cash
balances grew, which on a relative
basis created a little bit of drag.
Matt: In the week of the global financial crisis, when people started to question the quality of human-made money, gold did very
well and that was a potential ballast
for our portfolio when we needed
it most. Over the last four years or
so, as confidence improved in the
financial system and risk premia
came down, gold was soft.
It did
what you’d expect as a potential
hedge, but that was a headwind to
us the last few years.
We have put together what we
think is an all-weather portfolio and we hope that through the
whole cycle, good stock selection
and prudent allocation of capital
may potentially produce attractive returns. But within the cycle
what we hope to produce is an element of resilience to crisis, and we
are willing to look mundane in the
later stages of a bull market.
Bob: What guidance would
you offer to investors who are
contemplating increasing their
allocations to passive funds?
Has your view been affected at
all by the market movement
since January 1?
Matt: There has been the analytical allure, if you will, of the indexed fund as being a low-cost
implementation vehicle. The sta-
.
tistics are often touted about the
majority of active managers underperforming. That has understandably attracted a fair amount
of capital, and it is likely to attract
more capital at the peak of a bull
market where just being long the
market may be one of the best
things that you can do.
However, as we stand back from
the recent trends and we think
about the structure of markets, as
advisors think about passive versus active, one thing we know for
sure is that 100% of the market
cannot be passive. You can’t have
an entire market being willfully
ignorant of the underlying valuation, balance sheet and management risk that’s being invested in.
We think there’s always going to
be a role for active investing.
One of the problems of passive
investing is that it encourages
the willful ignorance of underlying fundamentals and valuation. It also implicitly encourages
growth-based thematic investing.
Over the last 30-odd years of financial market history, during the
biggest bubbles of our generation
there have been the big growth
themes of the day—Japan in the
late 1980s, tech in the late 1990s,
financials in the mid-2000s, and
even more recently the whole
BRICs story.
The existence of index funds enabled a lot of capital
to flow into these trends that was
not discriminating about the un-
derlying securities that were being purchased in those markets.
The reason most active managers underperform, other than
charging relatively higher fees,
is that they try to structure their
portfolios for prescience or at
least the promise of prescience.
They try to zig or zag around market trends. They try to identify the
next great growth themes. We’ve
seen how that has failed historically.
They look for companies
that they think will beat the quarter but there is a huge amount of
competition to identify short-term
surprises.
Many active managers are playing
in areas that are simply too competitive, or trying to do things that
can’t be done such as predicting
the future with precision. We acknowledge our crystal ball is foggy at best. But there is a role for
thoughtful active managers who
are focused on seeking to protect
capital over the long term through
risk mitigation.
We don’t see risk
as tracking error to a benchmark,
but rather as avoiding the permanent loss of capital.
If you think about our multi-decade track record at First Eagle,
the key has often been what we’ve
decided not to own, like Japan in
the late 1980s; it was the biggest
component of the MSCI world index, as was tech in the U.S. index
in the late 1990s, but we chose not
8
to go there. The BRICs attracted
huge amounts of capital and enthusiastic investing, and we’ve
been very cautious because we
couldn’t find securities bottom-up
to invest there the last few years.
By adopting a value-oriented approach, we only leave cash to buy
securities that we believe are conservatively valued, conservatively
capitalized and conservatively
run.
This has really helped us avoid
the permanent capital impairment
when Japan, tech, the financials,
and the BRICS imploded in the
past. People pay us to be prudent
capital allocators and to only get
fully invested when bargains can
be had.
If this approach to active investing
has worked over the long term,
why don’t more people do it?
Well, number one, it is not comfortable to be investing in a countercyclical fashion, committing
capital when markets are in distress, or sitting with cash when
markets are rallying to new highs.
What we do has a decade-long
cycle. Most investors are too impatient to mimic this.
There is always going to be a role
for thoughtful active investing.
We
believe that the market is structurally short patience, and that creates
the opportunity for active investors
who are patient long-term investors
focused on preventing the permanent impairment of capital.
. Average Annual Returns as of 12/31/2015:
Year
to Date
1 Year
5 Years
10 Years
First Eagle Global Fund - Class A (w/o sales charge) (SGENX)
-0.94
-0.94
5.74
7.16
First Eagle Global Fund - Class A(w/sales charge) (SGENX)
-5.89
-5.89
4.66
6.62
Expense
Ratio
1.11%
The performance data quoted herein represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. Market
volatility can dramatically impact the fund’s short-term performance. Current performance may be lower or higher than
figures shown. The investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed,
may be worth more or less than their original cost.
Past performance data through the most recent month end is available at feim.com or by calling 800.334.2143. The average annual returns for Class A Shares “with sales charge” of First
Eagle Global Fund gives effect to the deduction of the maximum sales charge of 5.00%.
The average annual returns shown above are historical and reflect changes in share price, reinvested dividends and are net
of expenses. Investment results and the principal value of an investment will vary.
The annual expense ratio is based on expenses incurred by the fund, as stated in the most recent prospectus.
The opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the firm.
These materials are provided for informational purpose
only. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, or investment advice.
Any statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy of this information cannot be guaranteed. The views expressed herein may change at any time subsequent to the date of issue hereof.
The information provided is not to be construed as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an
offer to buy or sell any fund or security.
There are risks associated with investing in funds that invest in securities of foreign countries, such as erratic market
conditions, economic and political instability and fluctuations in currency exchange rates.
Investment in gold and gold related investments present certain risks, and returns on gold related investments have traditionally been more volatile than investments in broader equity or debt markets.
The principal risk of investing in value stocks is that the price of the security may not approach its anticipated value or may
decline in value.
All investments involve the risk of loss.
The holdings mentioned herein represent the following percentages of the total net assets of First Eagle Global Fund
as of 12/31/2015: KDDI Corporation 1.70%, Secom Co.
Ltd. 1.41%, Comcast Corporation 2.03%, Oracle Corporation 2.15%,
Microsoft Corporation 2.35%, Flowserve Corporation 0.64%, gold bullion 6.21%.
The Fund may invest in gold and precious metals through investment in a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Fund organized
under the laws of the Cayman Islands (“the Subsidiary”). Gold bullion and commodities include the Fund’s investment in
the Subsidiary.
2015 Morningstar, Inc.© All Rights Reserved.
The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar; (2) may
not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no
guarantee of future results.
The Morningstar percentile ranking for the First Eagle Global Fund was derived using the total
return of the performance figure associated with its 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year periods, as of 12/31/15. Morningstar percentile
rankings for First Eagle Global Fund Class A shares were: 20th for the 1-year (111/567 funds), 19th for the 3-year (89/479
funds), 15th for the 5-year (51/348 funds) and 5th for the 10-year (9/190 funds) periods when compared against the
Morningstar World Allocation category. Different share classes may have different rankings.
2015 Best Flexible Portfolio Fund is based on the ten-year risk adjusted performance among 93 eligible flexible portfolio
funds for the period ended December 31, 2014.
Classification average are calculated with all eligible share classes for each
eligible classification. The calculation periods extend over 36, 60, and 120 months. The highest Lipper Leader for Consistent Return (Effective Return) value within each eligible classification determines the fund classification winner over three,
five, or ten years.
Although Lipper makes reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data contained
herein, the accuracy is not guaranteed by Lipper. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. Additional information is
available at www.lipperweb.com.
Lipper leader ratings copyright 2015, Reuters, All Rights Reserved.
Lipper, a wholly owned subsidiary of Reuters, is a leading global provider of mutual fund information and analysis to fund
companies, financial intermediaries, and media organizations.
9
. Reference to a ranking, a rating or an award does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and is subject to
change over time.
The information is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting or tax advice. Any tax information presented is not intended to constitute an analysis of all tax considerations.
Investors should consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Funds and may be obtained by asking your financial adviser, visiting our website at feim.com or calling us at 800.334.2143. Please read our prospectus
carefully before investing.
For further information about the First Eagle Funds, please call 800.334.2143.
The First Eagle Funds are offered by FEF Distributors, LLC, 1345 Avenue of the Americas, New York, New York 10105.
© 2016, Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved
10
.