2015 Fundraising: Year in Review
Pension fund commitments to managed real estate vehicles
. Strong 2015 Fundraising Tempered by Q4 Drop-Off
Despite the strongest fundraising year since the inception of FPL’s
database, a dip in Q4 volume may foretell shifting tides
Capital commitments from U.S. public pension funds to
managed real estate vehicles totaled $46.2 billion in
2015, the largest total since FPL Consulting began
tracking data in 2011. This volume represents a 17
percent increase over 2014 where commitments totaled
$39.5 billion, and a 66 percent increase over 2013,
where $27.8 billion was committed. This result
illustrates the fact that demand for real estate remained
strong among investors in 2015, given positive
fundamentals and the attractiveness of returns relative
to other asset classes in a low interest rate environment.
Commitments to managed real estate vehicles
$B
46.2
39.5
31.2
24.1
2011
2012
27.8
2013
2014
2015
The strong showing for the year was driven in part by the closing of several large, opportunity funds earlier in the
year.
Continuing its fundraising dominance in 2015, Blackstone held a final close for BREP VIII with $15.8 billion in
commitments, in addition to raising capital for two core-plus offerings (one domestic, one international) and its
latest debt vehicle. Other high-yield shops that closed significant funds in 2015 included Lone Star ($5.8B),
Starwood ($5.6B), and Carlyle ($4.2B), among others.
Strong fundraising was not limited to high-yield funds, however. CalPERS alone committed over $5 billion,
primarily to core strategies via existing separate account managers.
Moreover, capital raising among the leaders in
the core space (e.g. JP Morgan, UBS, PREI, Invesco, AEW, Principal, LaSalle, Heitman, Deutsche, PREI, Cornerstone,
etc.) was up approximately 9 percent on average in 2015, according to a recent study conducted by FPL.
That said, our findings suggest momentum may be waning.
Volume for Q4 totaled just $8.2 billion, a 35 percent decline from
the average commitment levels from the first three quarters of the
$B
14.1
$B
12.6 13.3
year and a seven percent dip from Q4 2014. While it would be
12.0
premature to pronounce that the tide has turned, this softening is
8.8
8.4
8.2
8.2
consistent with what we have been hearing anecdotally from
7.9
industry participants.
Though most would hesitate to call this the
market peak, there is certainly an acknowledgement that we are in
the later innings of the cycle, and broad optimism has been largely
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
replaced with calls for caution. The Real Estate Roundtable
2013
2014
2015
Sentiment Index, conducted by FPL, reflects this fact. The Q4
index, which measures industry perspectives regarding the overall health of the commercial real estate
environment, came in at its lowest level since Q3 2009.
The implications for fundraising in 2016 and beyond are
unclear, with both notable headwinds and tailwinds to consider. We will discuss these factors in greater detail in
our “Looking Ahead” section.
Commitments by quarter
© 2016, FPL Consulting
. Vehicle Structure and Investment Strategy
High-yield strategies continued to attract the majority
of capital in 2015, accounting for two-thirds of
aggregate volume (up from 62% in 2014). This finding
is consistent with industry commentary which suggests
investors continue to move up the risk curve in search
of greater yield. Such a move is not surprising due to
the fact that target returns are harder to come by given
elevated asset pricing, in particular for stabilized assets
in gateway markets.
That said, there are some early indications that a shift
may be on the horizon as some public pensions adopt a
more defensive strategy in preparation for what could
be a more volatile market. Within the past several
weeks, a handful of notable pension funds have
increased their allocation to core real estate at the
expense of higher-yielding strategies.
Oregon Public
Employees Retirement Fund, for example, recently
increased its allocation to core real estate by 20
percent. Likewise, the California State Teachers’
Retirement Fund (CalSTRS) has shifted 10 percent of
its allocation from opportunistic real estate to core,
bringing its total core real estate allocation to 60
percent. Moreover, the pension has lowered its target
return for non-core real estate to lessen its risk and
provide more stable cash flows.
While today these
examples are purely anecdotal, it will be interesting to
see if this trend continues with similar moves among
the pension community more broadly.
Commitments by investment strategy
%
37
28
33
39
29
28
34
38
33
2013
2014
2015
Core
Value-add
Opportunistic
Commitments by vehicle type
%
25
42
38
10
13
47
50
2014
2015
18
56
2013
Closed-end
commingled
Open-end
commingled
Separate
account
Another trend worth highlighting is the expansion of core-plus strategies in the market today. Offering a modest
premium to core in terms of risk and return targets, such strategies appear to be gaining favor with investors
searching for yield without taking on significant levels of risk. Blackstone, Carlyle, and Rockpoint are some examples
of managers currently in market raising core-plus vehicles.
With regards to vehicle structure, 2015 was very similar to 2014 in that the composition of commitments was
heavily weighted towards closed-end funds, accounting for 50 percent of commitment volume (up slightly from 47
percent in 2014).
This is not surprising given that high-yield strategies tend to be more closely associated with
closed-end fund structures. Open-end funds were up slightly, representing 13 percent of commitments in 2015 (up
from 10 percent in 2014) and separate accounts fell from 42 percent of volume in 2014 to 38 percent this year.
© 2016, FPL Consulting
. Property Type
Vehicles focused on a single property type attracted 26
percent of commitments in 2015, down from 41 percent in
2014 but in line with 25 percent in 2013. Among these
commitments, multifamily was the most popular property
type, representing 40 percent of volume, followed by
industrial with 24 percent. This represents a shift from 2014
where commitments to property-specific vehicles were more
evenly spread across the major asset classes. Notable
managers raising capital for property-specific vehicles in
2015 included Global Logistics Properties (industrial), Beacon
Capital (office), Waterton (multifamily), and Harrison Street
(niche), among others.
Looking forward, the 2016 ULI
Emerging Trends in Real Estate report2 suggests that the
industrial sector is expected to continue to offer the most
attractive prospects for both investment and development for
the year. Moreover, despite the popularity of multifamily in
2015, the report suggests that there may be a shift in the
outlook for apartments in 2016 due to oversupply concerns
and rental pressure in certain markets.
Breakdown of commitments by property type
(among property-specific vehicles)
%
12
19
10
28
24
20
8
16
40
25
2014
2015
Multifamily
Industrial
Office
Other1
Retail
Geography
Breakdown of commitments by geography
%
6
8
14
25
72
65
2014
2015
8
12
6
23
56
2013
North America
Europe
Global
Asia
The majority of commitments from U.S. pensions continue
to flow to North America-focused vehicles (65%).
However,
commitments to global vehicles saw an increase from 14
percent in 2014 to 25 percent in 2015, partly attributable to
the aforementioned closings of large, global funds over the
course of the year. That said, Q4 marked an interesting
uptick in commitments to European-focused vehicles, with
24 percent of capital flowing to such strategies. Notable
European-focused vehicles driving this trend include those
managed by Perella Weinberg, Tristan Capital Partners,
Brockton Capital, Ares Management, and Niam, among
others.
Asia came in slightly down for the year, attracting
four percent of commitment dollars from six percent in
2014.
1 The “other” category includes niche property types such as student and senior housing, medical offices, and storage properties.
2 PwC and the Urban Land Institute. Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016. Washington, D.C.: PwC and the Urban Land Institute, 2015.
© 2016, FPL Consulting
.
Vertical Integration
Commitments to vertically integrated managers
(as % of total commitments)
%
25
20
2014
Commingled funds
2015
JV/Separate accounts
Vertically integrated managers attracted 20 percent of
commitment capital in 2015, down from 25 percent in
2014. The decrease was particularly apparent among
commingled funds; in 2014, 19 percent of capital
committed to funds went to vertically integrated
managers versus only 9 percent in 2015. Separate
accounts increased modestly, with 44 percent of
commitments to single investor vehicles going to
vertically integrated managers, up from 37 percent in
2014. Among the major investment strategies, core
mandates are the most likely to be committed to
vertically integrated managers, with 37 percent of
commitments made to core strategies flowing to
vertically integrated managers in 2015.
Manager Concentration
Despite the continuing improvement in the capital raising
environment, it is still a highly competitive market with many
firms struggling to attract new capital.
Analysis by FPL suggests
that the global ratio of capital sought versus that being raised is
about 3 to 1. This has led to a world of ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ those who are in favor with investors and are reaping the benefits
of the current capital environment, and those who are not.
Further exacerbating this already competitive environment is the
fact that several high profile pension schemes (e.g. CalPERS,
PSERS, etc.) are actively reducing the number of managers in
their portfolio.
Concentration of commitments
%
48
18
13
21
44
14
11
31
2014
2015
The result of these trends is a highly concentrated capital raising
environment.
In 2015, the top 5 managers in our database
Firms 6-10
Top 5 firms
collected 31 percent of all commitments (up from 21 percent for
All others
Firms 11-20
the top 5 in 2014), while the top 20 managers accounted for 56
percent of total commitment volume. This means that the
remaining 100+ firms (or ~85% of the population) for which we
tracked a pension commitment in 2015 split the remaining 44 percent of volume. This dichotomy is even greater
when you consider the myriad number of firms that did not raise any capital at all in 2015.
© 2016, FPL Consulting
.
Looking Forward
The outlook for the real estate investment sector is somewhat
uncertain for 2016, with both positive and negative indicators.
On the one hand, demand for real estate is near an all-time high.
According to a recent report1 by Hodes Weill & Associates and
Cornell University, institutional investors are still underallocated
to real estate relative to targets. Moreover, target allocations are
expected to continue increasing across the industry in 2016.
This finding is consistent with Preqin’s H2 2015 Investor Outlook
report which found that 78 percent of investors expect to commit
the same amount or more to real estate in 2016 as compared to
2015. With such demand for real estate, an imminent drop off
seems unlikely.
Avg. investor allocations to real estate1
9.6%
9.9%
8.5%
% Invested
Target
Expected
On the other hand, market sentiment is growing increasingly
in 2015
allocation in
Target
cautious.
Return expectations are falling, and REITs are trading
2015
Allocation in
at a discount to NAV, which raises the question of whether the
2016
public markets are undervaluing real estate or private asset
valuations are overstated. Furthermore, accessing deal flow continues to present a challenge, as evidenced by
record levels of dry powder2 and long queues for certain open-ended funds.
The uncertainty surrounding commercial real estate in 2016 is illustrated by differing projections for the year
among major industry sources. In its most recent Commercial Property Report, Green Street Advisors
forecasted that commercial real estate prices will fall modestly in the coming year, marking the first time since
2009 that they have been bearish on asset pricing.
In contrast, PREA’s Q4 2015 NPI consensus forecast survey
still showed positive, albeit declining, price appreciation expectations in 2016. The Q4 2015 results from the
RER Sentiment Survey further illustrate the lack of consensus regarding the direction of asset pricing – 45
percent of industry respondents believe property values will be about the same in Q4 2016 compared to Q4
2015, while 33 percent expect them to be somewhat higher and 22 percent foresee them somewhat lower.
Given the above considerations, the outlook for 2016 is unclear. Strong demand is competing against elevated
asset pricing and difficulty placing capital.
Moreover, any major geopolitical or macroeconomic event could
throw market conditions for a loop – an especially relevant consideration given the fact that we’re in a
presidential election year. It will be an interesting year to watch unfold, with both promise as well as potential
pitfalls.
About the database: FPL’s database, tracked by FPL Consulting since 2011, includes commitments to 303
managers from 181 U.S. pensions representing $3.3 trillion in assets under management.
For more information on FPL Consulting, please contact Tim Kessler, Principal, at tkessler@fplassociates.com.
Jones, D., & Weill, D.
(2015). 2015 Institutional Real Estate Allocations Monitor. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University’s Baker Program in Real Estate and
Hodes Weill & Associates, LP, December 2015.
23pp.
2 As of December 2015 according to data tracked by Preqin
1
© 2016, FPL Consulting
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