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North America Renewable Energy Brief – March 2016
NORTH AMERICA
R E N E WA B L E E N E R G Y B R I E F
CAN COMMUNITY SOLAR BRING RENEWABLE
ENERGY TO THE MASSES? – MARCH 2016
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North America Renewable Energy Brief – March 2016
IN FOCUS: CAN COMMUNITY SOLAR BRING RENEWABLE ENERGY TO THE MASSES?
The huge market potential
Financing challenges and considerations
The utility viewpoint
The interplay with rooftop solar
Welcome to the fourth edition of North America Renewable Energy Brief. This issue of
the publication is focused on the emerging community energy sector. We examine
the market potential for community solar, which states will likely see the most projects,
how community solar projects might be financed, whether utilities view this market
as an opportunity or a threat, and whether community energy competes with, or is
complementary to, rooftop solar.
We hope you find this newsletter thought provoking and insightful. As always, we
welcome your feedback.
Sincerely,
Anton Cohen and Tim Kemper
Rob Sternthal
Co-National Directors, Renewable Energy Industry
CohnReznick LLP
President
CohnReznick Capital Markets Securities LLC
WHAT IS COMMUNITY SOLAR?
Community solar is a relatively new phenomenon
so a definition is a good place to start.
Also
referred to as shared renewables, community
renewables, or even solar ‘gardens’, community
solar is an energy procurement model that allows
private companies, institutions and individuals to
aggregate their electricity load to purchase clean
energy on behalf of those who wish to participate.
The model offers an alternative to rooftop solar
for both individuals and businesses wishing
to benefit from the stable pricing and green
credentials that renewable energy affords but
can’t because their rooftops are not suitable for
solar panels or they are renters.
Community solar works in partnership with
local utilities, which continue to deliver power,
maintain the grid, and may provide consolidated
billing and other customer services. However,
the customers pay a community solar project
instead of the utilities and receive credits on their
electricity bills for the power procured.
Community solar projects can be developed
and owned by utilities or other third parties.
Customers can either pay upfront for a portion of
the project’s output or for a portion of a project’s
capacity. Further, customers can either pay an
entire amount up front or pay periodically, such
as monthly.
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North America Renewable Energy Brief – March 2016
ENABLING LEGISLATION CREATES HUGE
GROWTH POTENTIAL
The market potential for community solar is huge.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory
estimates community solar could represent 32%-49%
of the distributed PV market by 2020. This equates
to cumulative 5.5-11.0 GW of capacity projected
to be brought online between 2015 and 2020, or
between $8.2 billion and $16.3 billion of cumulative
investment1. As shown in the graph below, it is
unlikely that more than 1 GW of community solar
projects will be brought online this year or next. But
in 2020, potentially, more than 4GW of community
solar projects could be installed.
1
David Feldman, Anna M.
Brockway, Elaine Ulrich, and Robert Margolis, Shared Solar: Current
Landscape, Market Potential, and the Impact of Federal Securities Regulation, (April 2015),
www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/63892.pdf p.v
Estimated market potential of onsite and shared solar distributed PV capacity
10
Annual US PV Demand (GW)
9
8
7
6
5
Shared Solar GW (Historic)
4
Shared Solar GW (High)
3
Shared Solar GW (Low)
2
Distributed PV Market
1
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
The rapid rate of community solar development
that followed the implementation of enabling
legislation highlights its potential. Take the state
of Minnesota as an example. Minnesota passed
the Solar Energy Jobs Act in 2013, a key piece of
enabling legislation that made community solar
commercially viable.
At the time, only 14 MW of
community solar had been installed state-wide.
As Karen Gados, Business Development Manager
at SunShare explains, development activity
skyrocketed following the legislation. “Within
the first week of the community solar program
opening, the state received over 400 applications
for approximately 458 MW of capacity,” she said.
“To date, they have received 2 GW.”
What is driving community solar growth?
Without doubt, the most important factor
is the establishment of enabling legislation
that allows projects to sell power to multiple
offtakers - residents, municipalities, or businesses
(so-called third-party PPAs). The legislation
may also allow customers of community solar
projects to receive monetary or electricity
credits to offset their electricity bills.
The type of
legislation that enables crediting depends on
the dynamics of the market. It could include
a specific community solar program or virtual
net metering. Also, these offsets may be at
wholesale or retail rates, or somewhere in
between.
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North America Renewable Energy Brief – March 2016
To date, fourteen states and the District of
Columbia (D.C.) have adopted some form of
shared renewable initiatives. Many more are
considering programs, including New Mexico
and Virginia. The leading programs are outlined
in the table below. Some of these programs are
in their pilot stages and are limited, usually by the
megawatts deployed.
STATE
“Initially, the regulatory environment was the
catalyst for shared solar adoption,” explained
Tim Braun, Director of Public Affairs at Clean
Energy Collective.
“Today, the market is also
active in states yet to adopt specific community
solar legislation. Consumer demand has grown
exponentially with more understanding and
awareness of the model and benefits.”
POLICY
YEAR ENACTED
California
Virtual Net Metering for Multi-Tenant Buildings
Green Tariff Shared Renewables Program
Colorado
Community Solar Gardens Act
HB 1284 - Expand Scope of Shared Photovoltaic Facilities
2010
2015
Connecticut
Virtual Net Metering
An Act Establishing a Shared Clean Energy Facility Pilot Program - SB 928
2013
2015
Delaware
Community Net Metering Provisions
2010
Hawaii
SB1050 / HB484: An Act Relating to Energy
2015
Maine
Net Energy Billing to Allow Shared Ownership
2012
Maryland
Electricity - Community Energy-Generating Facilities - Pilot Program - HB 1087 / SB 481
2015
Massachusetts
Green Communities Act (SB 2768)
Neighbourhood Net Metering
2008
2013
Minnesota
Solar Energy Jobs Act (HF 729)
2013
New Hampshire
Group Net Metering
2013
New York
PSC Order Establishing a Community DG Program
2015
Oregon
House Bill 2941 - Relating to solar energy, creating new provisions
2015
Vermont
Group Net Metering
Net Metering Amendments H.702
2012
2014
Washington
Community Renewables Enabling Act
2010
Washington, D.C.
Community Renewable Energy Act of 2013
Source: Shared Renewables HQ/ Clean Energy Pipeline
2009/11
2013
2011/13
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North America Renewable Energy Brief – March 2016
FINANCING COMMUNITY SOLAR
Tried and tested tax equity financing structures
have evolved for conventional renewable energy
projects. Can these be applied to community
solar projects? The consensus today is that there is
no reason why they can’t. However, investors need
to be educated on and get comfortable with the
different risk profile.
The primary difference between standard and
community solar projects is the offtaker. Instead of
a single creditworthy utility offtaker taking physical
delivery of the power community projects have
several if not hundreds of individual offtakers with
varying credit ratings that do not take physical
delivery of the power.
Any number of offtakers may elect to drop
out of the program, thus creating a revenue
shortfall.
One way to alleviate dropout risk is to
create a community renewable program that is
oversubscribed. Subscribers on the waiting list
can then instantly replace those leaving the
program, ensuring the revenue stream is
maintained. Alternatively, underwriters may
evaluate the project assuming a certain
percentage of revenue simply will not be
collected, which can account for temporary
losses of revenue as customers turn over.
“In the event of a customer default, we can easily
change an account number on a database
from a defaulted customer to a new customer,”
explained Christopher Sayer, Finance Director at
SunShare.
“As a result, it’s much easier to cure a
default. We’ve found that resonates well with the
financial community. Rather than being a single
offtake utility PPA, we have a portfolio effect with
a plethora of customers.
This de-risking means
that, in many ways, financing community projects
is lower risk than traditional rooftop solar.”
Questions do remain regarding the level
of oversubscription that investors need to
advance financing and whether they are
prepared to advance funds before this level
has been obtained. “There are still questions
about how quickly a system will develop a
minimum subscriber base to make a particular
project feasible,” said Joel Cohn, Partner at
CohnReznick. “Investors need to consider the
point at which they advance funds and step into
that risk position.
There are also questions about
customer turnover, managing waiting lists, and
replacing customers and their revenue streams
with new customers. These are not serious risks
but they are different risks to the traditional solar
financing model.”
THE UTILITY VIEWPOINT – CHALLENGE OR OPPORTUNITY?
The community solar model disrupts the traditional
relationship between utilities and their customers,
creating both challenges and opportunities for
incumbent power generators. On the one hand,
community solar might cause headaches for
utilities if it creates pressure on the grid resulting
from a surge in solar projects.
“The rise of community solar creates extra work for
utilities.
They must undertake engineering studies,
review the grid readiness for more renewables
penetration, and process project applications
in a quick timeframe,” explained Gados. “It has
been a point of discussion. How can community
solar companies and utilities successfully navigate
through these engineering and connection studies
and how much solar can we really put on the
grid?”
In some states such as Colorado, the regulatory
environment allows utilities to recover some of
these costs.
But in other states, utilities cannot
recover these costs. “If utilities are no longer
providing electricity to the consumer, but the
consumer is connected to the grid as a back-up
source, they may want to charge the consumer
for grid investment and maintenance,” notes Joel
Cohn, Partner at CohnReznick. “They still have
a significant investment and must maintain that
equipment so they may want to be compensated
for those costs.
There may be a wide variety of
options as to how these costs and credits are
reflected on community solar consumer’s bills
– full retail, disaggregated retail- value of solar
and others – I think that is a critical but very much
evolving issue.”
On the other hand, community solar offers an
opportunity for utilities to address the growing
threat of homeowners going completely off the
grid and cutting ties with utilities by installing
rooftop solar and battery storage. For some
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North America Renewable Energy Brief – March 2016
homeowners, community solar may be a more
compelling alternative to installing panels on their
roof if it is offered by utilities.
“Community solar is a huge opportunity for utilities
because, unlike traditional rooftop solar, it allows
them to hold on to their customer base because
the customer never leaves the grid,” says Gados.
“In a traditional community solar program, the
customer stays connected to the grid and simply
receives credit on their bill in return for their
purchase of the solar energy subscription. This is
less intimidating to utilities because they are not
at risk, as they are with rooftop customers, of them
suddenly cutting ties with utilities.”
Given the complexities of community solar, many
utilities were evaluating how their competitors
embraced this new business model before fully
committing. “Lots of utilities were in a wait and see
mode, wanting to see how others integrated it,”
explained Tim Braun, Director of Public Affairs at
Clean Energy Collective. “But many are starting
to transition from observing to engaging because
they are seeing success.”
If a utility decides that it does want to get involved
with community solar, the next question is how.
UTILITY
One option is for the utility to do everything
themselves, from developing and operating the
project to customer acquisition, billing and credit
management.
This approach was adopted by
Tucson Electric Power (TEP) for its Bright Tucson
Community Solar Program. The program offers
TEP customers the opportunity to purchase solar
in 150 KWh blocks, which then offset the need for
conventional electricity sources. Each block costs
$3.00 per month but these blocks are exempt from
certain surcharges.
This means that the additional
cost is actually lower. Each block replaces the
charges for an equivalent amount of conventional
power. The Bright Tucson Community Solar
Program is currently oversubscribed.
Alternatively, utilities can partner with specialist
community solar companies capable of handling
both customer acquisition and billing and credit
management.
For example, NRG Renew, a
subsidiary of NRG Energy, formed a partnership
with SunShare in January 2015 to finance and build
an 8.2 MW portfolio of community solar projects
in Colorado. The projects came online last year.
NRG already owned a portfolio of community
wind and solar projects before this partnership
was formed. Some notable utility-led community
programs are outlined in the table below:
COMMUNITY SOLAR PROGRAM
PARTNERS
Tucson Electric Power
Tucson, Arizona
Bright Tucson Community Solar
N/A
Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD)
Sacramento, California
SolarShares Program
N/A
United Power
Brighton, Colorado
Sol Partners Cooperative Solar Farm
N/A
Green Mountain Power
Colchester, Vermont
Community Solar
NRG Home Solar
Xcel Energy
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Solar*Rewards Community
NRG Home Solar, Minnesota
Community Solar, SunShare
Colorado Springs Utilities
Colorado Springs, Colorado
Pikes Peak Solar Garden
Clean Energy Collective, SunShare
Source: Clean Energy Pipeline
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North America Renewable Energy Brief – March 2016
“Community solar is beginning to flourish. Financing partners are getting comfortable with it
and it’s attractive because it de-risks the biggest issue with residential solar: non-payment.
Most community solar projects are oversubscribed so someone else can step in and pay if
this problem occurs. The more forward thinking utilities understand that community solar is
their opportunity to work with their customer base in a proactive and efficient way.”
Conor McKenna, Managing Director, CohnReznick Capital Markets Securities, LLC
ROOFTOP SOLAR – FRIEND OR FOE?
The US rooftop solar market is booming. The Solar
Energy Industries Association estimates that, for
the first time ever, more than 2 GW of residential
solar was installed in 2015, significantly more
than in 2014.
If rooftop and community solar are
in competition, this growth might stunt the rise of
community solar before it has taken off. On the
flip side, a surge in community solar might slow
the growth of rooftop solar.
The industry professionals interviewed for this
report believe that community and rooftop
solar are often not in direct competition.
This is primarily because rooftop solar is not
logistically possible for such a large number of
households. In fact, The National Renewable
Energy Laboratory estimates that 49% of
households in the US are currently unable to
host a PV system (after excluding those that do
not own their building and those without access
to sufficient roof space.)2 Therefore, half of all
households in the US do not have the choice of
whether to install solar on their roof or sign up
for a community solar program, but instead are
limited to a choice between community solar
and no solar at all.
Even for households that can accommodate
rooftop solar, community solar could be a more
2
appealing option because it is more flexible.
“With rooftop solar, you have an agreement
that offers financial savings but it’s also a
rigid commitment,” said Sandy Roskes, Senior
Vice President of New Ventures at Ethical
Electric.
“You either need to buy the asset
and hold it long-term or you need to enter
into a long-term financial arrangement. In
addition to community solar being an option
for households that cannot accommodate
rooftop solar, it also enables individuals
to decide how much capital they want to
commit, and for how long, in a way that
rooftop can’t.”
Some community solar companies consider
the market opportunity to be so extensive that
they do not target households with rooftops
suitable for solar. “The 2015 NREL report on
shared solar stated around half of people
can’t participate in rooftop solar.
But we think
it’s safe to say that anywhere between 50-80%
of people can’t accommodate rooftop solar,”
explained Gados. “Those are the folks that
we are targeting. If we get a phone call from
someone asking for solar on their rooftop we
will usually refer them to someone at the local
solar association.
We don’t view the rooftop
industry as competition in any shape or form.”
David Feldman, Anna M. Brockway, Elaine Ulrich, and Robert Margolis, Shared Solar: Current Landscape, Market
Potential, and the Impact of Federal Securities Regulation, (April 2015), www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/63892.pdf p.v
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North America Renewable Energy Brief – March 2016
WHAT DOES COHNREZNICK THINK?
The community solar model is gathering
momentum. The projections made by the
NREL and the Department of Energy that were
mentioned earlier make this abundantly clear.
The question is, therefore, not whether this market
will grow but by how much. And what will the
impact be on incumbent players - notably the
utilities and rooftop solar companies.
The examples highlighted earlier demonstrate
that forward thinking utilities can benefit hugely
from engaging with community solar. Of course,
careful consideration needs to be given to how
projects are structured and the extent to which
key aspects of the projects, such as customer
acquisition and management, are outsourced to
partners.
But if structured correctly, community
solar should enable utilities to retain a healthy
relationship with their customers.
There is also the question of financing.
Our view is that, ultimately, the structures
that have been used for many years can
be applied to community projects. Of
course the risk profile is different. For a start,
community projects rely on multiple virtual
offtakers that, at any point, may choose to
exit the program.
This risk could be minimized
depending upon how the program is
structured. But the unique features of
community solar are also, in many ways,
less risky to investors. Projects can manage
waiting lists of customers, with any defaults
being rectified fairly easily.
As always, we recommend seeking
professional advice to help navigate through
these issues and welcome all conversation in
response to this paper.
About CohnReznick: CohnReznick LLP is one of the top accounting, tax, and advisory firms in the United States, combining the
resources and technical expertise of a national firm with the hands-on, entrepreneurial approach that today’s dynamic business
environment demands.
Headquartered in New York, NY, and with offices nationwide, CohnReznick serves a large number of diverse
industries and offers specialized services for middle market and Fortune 1000 companies, private equity and financial services firms,
government contractors, government agencies, and not-for-profit organizations. The Firm, with origins dating back to 1919, has
more than 2,700 employees including nearly 300 partners and is a member of Nexia International, a global network of independent
accountancy, tax, and business advisors.
The Firm’s Renewable Energy Industry Practice helps clients navigate the industry’s nuanced business, regulatory, and financial
issues. The Practice’s integrated service platform includes assurance and attestation, technical accounting consulting, tax and
advisory structuring, and advisory (IPO readiness, YieldCo, valuation, transactional, capital markets) services.
The team includes
more than 40 highly experienced professionals with deep industry credentials.
About CohnReznick Capital Markets Securities (CRCMS): CRCMS offers a comprehensive financial advisory platform for the
renewable energy and sustainability industries, including solutions for corporations that includes corporate financing, project
financing and M&A advisory. The company represents financial institutions, infrastructure funds, strategic participants (IPPs and
utilities) and the leading wind, solar, biomass and other alternative energy developers nationwide. CRCMS has successfully
executed sale placements and asset sales for more than 896 MW of solar and 2,023 MW of wind projects, and more than $5
billion in tax equity investments.
Contact our renewable energy team for more information:
Anton Cohen
Rob Sternthal
Co-National Director,
Renewable Energy Industry
CohnReznick LLP
301-280-1822
anton.cohen@CohnReznick.com
President,
CohnReznick Capital Markets Securities LLC
917-472-1272
rob.sternthal@crcms.com
Timothy Kemper
Co-National Director,
Renewable Energy Industry
CohnReznick LLP
404-847-7764
timothy.kemper@CohnReznick.com
cohnreznick.com
cohnreznickcapmarkets.com
CohnReznick is an
independent member
of Nexia International
This has been prepared for information purposes and general guidance only and does not constitute professional advice.
You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining
specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and CohnReznick LLP, its members,
employees and agents accept no liability, and disclaim all responsibility, for the consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or
for any decision based on it.
.