The U.S. wage growth quandary

BMO Global Asset Management
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Description

The lack of wage growth in the U.S. labor market has been a frequent topic during our global multi-asset investment calls. Typically at this point in the economic cycle (mid-to-late cycle), wages are growing at a 4%+ pace. However, wage growth has been very modest over the past few years (2%-3% growth), puzzling many investors and frustrating many workers who have expected larger increases. This has also been a significant puzzle to the Federal Reserve, with Chair Janet Yellen calling the recent low levels of inflation (including wage growth) a “quandary.” Adding to the uncertainty in recent months has been the impact of hurricanes on U.S. economic data.

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