Aon Benfield Impact Forecasting Impact Forecasting Transparent and customisable catastrophe models and platform Winter/Spring 2016 Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources. . Contents About Impact Forecasting 3 Model Coverage Map 4-5 Model Coverage Index 6-7 In an increasingly risky world, insurers and reinsurers need more sophisticated tools to quantify and manage the risks facing their businesses. Impact Forecasting, Aon Benfield’s catastrophe model development centre of excellence, enables firms to analyse the financial implications of catastrophic events and achieve a greater understanding of their risks. Breadth of Model Coverage With over 100 probabilistic and scenario models spanning 10 perils and over 60 territories, we empower insurers by providing risk insights for the peak risk zones around the globe, as well as for the emerging markets. This allows insurers to place effective reinsurance programmes and manage capital based on more accurate model results. Impact Forecasting partners with academic and industry organisations around the world to incorporate the latest research into all of our catastrophe models. Customisable models All Impact Forecasting models can be customised based on the client’s requirements for example using an insurer’s loss data to generate more accurate results for a specific line of business, modify an existing event to explore the sensitivity of the losses for regulatory purposes or explore hazard uncertainty for a given peril.

Recent examples include using our engineering expertise to apply claims data from churches and greenhouses to create bespoke damage functions and exploring uncertainty in the hazard component of our US hurricane model. Transparent ELEMENTS loss calculation platform Catastrophe Analysis and Reporting Impact Forecasting provides real-time information on catastrophic events through Cat Alerts, Weekly and Monthly Cat Recaps and the Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report. The Catastrophe Insight portal provides aggregated economic and insured loss data for global natural catastrophe events during the current year plus the previous decade. Users can compare losses by peril or region. catastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com 2 Our models run in ELEMENTS, which gives insurers the ability to incorporate their own view of risk into model results. It delivers transparency so every step of the calculation process is clearly defined and can be easily explained to stakeholders, regulators and rating agencies while helping to quantify uncertainty in various model components. As a universal catastrophe modelling platform, ELEMENTS has the ability to run both Impact Forecasting models and third party models for any peril or territory.

It also enables users to quantify and visualise the range of uncertainties to make business decisions based on their individual risk appetites. Risk rating information to enhance primary underwriting Impact Forecasting’s set of hazard and risk score products—based on its modelled data— enables more accurate underwriting and risk assessment for natural and man-made hazards. The data helps insurers and corporations understand the impact of catastrophe risk on individual locations and then in turn estimate how much premium to charge. 3 . Model Coverage Map Western Europe Probabilistic Japan Central and Eastern Europe Scenario Probabilistic ** Scenario Bulgaria ** Cyprus Probabilistic South Korea Scenario France Probabilistic Israel Probabilistic Scenario Probabilistic China Probabilistic Greece Probabilistic Germany Kazakhstan Scenario Canada Probabilistic Scenario Scenario Pakistan Hong Kong Scenario Scenario Probabilistic United States of America Probabilistic Italy Ireland Scenario Puerto Rico Turkey Probabilistic Scenario Probabilistic India Vietnam Probabilistic Scenario Scenario Probabilistic Scenario Taiwan Virgin Islands Probabilistic Luxembourg Thailand Probabilistic Algeria Probabilistic Probabilistic Scenario Malaysia Scenario Probabilistic Scenario Oman Probabilistic Scenario Kenya Scenario United Arab Emirates Scenario Poland Portugal Switzerland Slovakia Slovenia United Kingdom Scenario Qatar Probabilistic Montenegro Indonesia Tanzania Probabilistic Hungary Singapore Probabilistic Probabilistic Czech Republic Serbia Scenario Kuwait Probabilistic Croatia Romania Scenario Scenario Chile Bosnia and Herzegovina Netherlands Probabilistic Scenario Morocco Probabilistic Scenario Mexico Liechtenstein Probabilistic Saudi Arabia Scenario Austria Denmark Probabilistic Belgium Scenario Philippines Uganda Probabilistic Probabilistic Scenario Bahrain Probabilistic Scenario Australia South Africa Probabilistic Scenario Yemen Probabilistic Scenario Map Icons earthquake life - earthquake tropical cyclone tornado* windstorm flood storm surge tsunami cloudburst terrorism life - terrorism workers’ compensation *tornado / hail / severe winds / thunderstorm 4 5 . Model Coverage Index Country Probabilistic Scenario Country Probabilistic Algeria earthquake earthquake Montenegro earthquake flood Morocco earthquake earthquake Netherlands storm surge and riverine flood, windstorm storm surge and riverine flood, windstorm Oman earthquake earthquake Australia Scenario Austria earthquake, flood flood Bahrain earthquake earthquake Belgium windstorm windstorm Bosnia and Herzegovina earthquake Bulgaria earthquake Canada flood flood Portugal Chile earthquake, tsunami earthquake, tsunami Puerto Rico earthquake, tropical cyclone earthquake, tropical cyclone China tropical cyclone flood Qatar earthquake earthquake Croatia earthquake Romania earthquake Cyprus earthquake earthquake Saudi Arabia earthquake Czech Republic flood flood Serbia earthquake Denmark windstorm windstorm France windstorm windstorm, flood Germany earthquake, terrorism, life-terrorism, storm surge, windstorm flood, storm surge, windstorm Greece earthquake earthquake Guam Pakistan earthquake Philippines tropical cyclone earthquake Poland tropical cyclone tropical cyclone flood flood flood Singapore cloudburst, earthquake, flood earthquake Slovakia earthquake, flood Slovenia earthquake South Africa earthquake South Korea tropical cyclone flood Hong Kong tropical cyclone Sweden Hungary earthquake, flood Switzerland earthquake, flood India tropical cyclone flood Taiwan tropical cyclone Indonesia flood earthquake, flood Tanzania earthquake flood, tropical cyclone earthquake, flood earthquake, life-earthquake cloudburst Ireland windstorm windstorm Thailand Israel earthquake, life-earthquake earthquake, life-earthquake Turkey earthquake, life-earthquake flood earthquake flood Uganda Japan earthquake, tropical cyclone earthquake, tropical cyclone, tsunami, flood United Kingdom terrorism, life-terrorism, windstorm windstorm Kazakhstan earthquake earthquake United Arab Emirates earthquake earthquake Kenya earthquake Kuwait earthquake earthquake United States of America earthquake, flood, life-terrorism, storm surge, terrorism, tropical cyclone, tornado Liechtenstein flood flood earthquake, flood, life-terrorism, storm surge, terrorism, tornado / hail / severe winds / thunderstorm, tropical cyclone Luxembourg windstorm windstorm Vietnam tropical cyclone flood Malaysia tropical cyclone, flood flood Virgin Islands earthquake, tropical cyclone earthquake, tropical cyclone flood Yemen earthquake earthquake Italy Mexico 6 7 . About Impact Forecasting Impact Forecasting is Aon Benfield’s catastrophe model development centre of excellence whose seismologists, meteorologists, engineers, mathematicians, finance risk management and insurance professionals analyse the financial implications of natural and man-made catastrophes around the world. Impact Forecasting’s experts develop a suite of probabilistic and scenario models, plus its transparent and customisable ELEMENTS loss calculation platform. These empower insurers and reinsurers to understand the impact of global risks ranging from hurricane, earthquake and flood to tsunami, cloudburst and terrorism. To find out more about Impact Forecasting® LLC, visit www.impactforecasting.com Impact Forecasting Contact Adam Podlaha +44 (0)20 7522 3820 adam.podlaha@aonbenfield.com impactforecasting.com aonbenfield.com 55 Bishopsgate, London, EC2N 3BD t: +44 (0)20 7088 0044 | f: +44 (0)20 7575 7001 aonbenfield.com Aon UK Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FP #12789 - 04/2015 Risk. Reinsurance.

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