U.S. Equity Indices | December 2015
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
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The S&P 500® decreased 1.75% in December, bringing its YTD return to -0.73%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average® returned -1.66% this month and was off 2.23% YTD.
The S&P MidCap 400® was down 4.33% for the month and 3.71% YTD.
The S&P SmallCap 600® returned -4.95% in December, bringing its YTD return to -3.36%.
Exhibit 1: Index Returns
Index
1-Month (%)
YTD (%)
2-Year (%)
S&P 500
-1.75
-0.73
10.58
Dow Jones Industrial Average
-1.66
-2.23
5.12
S&P MidCap 400
-4.33
-3.71
4.17
S&P SmallCap 600
-4.95
-3.36
0.93
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Dec. 31, 2015.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative
purposes. Returns shown are price returns.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
2015 is in the history books, and as the bubbly goes down, a (somewhat) sobering reflection emerges.
For 2015, the S&P 500 was down 0.73%, as the last trading day of the year posted a 0.94% decline,
putting the year into the red.
The annual decline, however, was after three years of double-digit gains
and a bull market that is 82 months old (the average is 59), with the index closing 4.08% off its all-time
closing high, set on May 21, 2015, at 2,130.82. So, if 2015 was the payback, fine; however, if the
economy slows even more, and if either Europe or China slide, year-end 2015 could mark the start of a
decline. By year-end 2015, oil got comfortable with the mid-to-upper USD 30s, as several research
reports got comfortable with USD 20 projections (oil was at USD 53 at the beginning of the year and
USD 105 in June 2014).
In 2015, two-thirds of the issues moved at least 10%, and over one-quarter
moved at least 25%—it will be interesting to see who did what (look for old-fashioned advertisements in
newspapers declaring the victories).
Contributor:
Howard Silverblatt, Index Investment Strategy, Senior Industry Analyst, howard.silverblatt@spdji.com
S&P Dow Jones Indices’ Market Attributes® series provides market commentary highlighting developments across various asset classes.
. Market Attributes | U.S. Equities
December 2015
M&A deals continued, and 2015 was already a record year by November; while a slowdown is
expected, it would be from a record level. As for 2016, there appear to be many issues to watch and
think about (we’ll see about trading). The Fed’s interest rate increase schedule should be topic one,
but the decision will be based on the data—so keeping your eye on the data (and the trades) may be
key.
New borrowing for future needs (beyond 2016, as interest rates remain low but are expected to
increase) should start to show itself about halfway through the year, once we see what the Fed is
doing. A reduction in M&A from the record-setting 2015 is expected, but it should remain at a high
level; inversion rules may be more public talk than enforceable rules. Another thing to watch for would
be the IMF’s addition of the Chinese yuan to the currency basket, set for Oct.
1, 2016.
In economic news, there was a rare case of “expect and you shall get,” as the U.S. Fed increased
interest rates by 0.25%, which had been expected by almost everyone, and markets moved up on the
expected, and actual, event. The increase then replaced one unknown question (“When will they
start?”) with another question (“When is the next one?”), with concerns over oil, corporate earnings, and
spending continuing in the background.
As for the Fed statement and guidance, it was as close to
scripted as could have been hoped (or traded) for. The Fed saw the economy as stronger and
expected it to improve in 2016, with the unemployment rate expected to continue to decrease, and a
few economists commenting that low unemployment could cause a spike in inflation. The Fed guided
toward four increases of 0.25% each in 2016—or at least that was the Street’s interpretation.
The
economic takeaway was for a slow, steady, and data-dependent series of interest rate increases, which
removed some uncertainty—a scenario the Street could live with. In other economic news, the IMF, as
expected, announced the addition of the Chinese yuan to its currencies of lending reserve, effective
Oct. 1, 2016, while China said it would double the trading hours for the yuan in preparation.
In China,
the official November Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 from 49.8, while the Services PMI increased to
53.6 from 53.1, and Chinese exports declined (6% year-over-year in November), as did imports (down
8.7% year-over-year in November). Industrial production came in higher than expected, coming in up
6.2% year-over-year in November, when a lower rate of 5.7% was expected. Japan revised its GDP to
a rate of up 1.0% from the initially released 0.8% decline, meaning it was not in a recession.
The 19
EU nations grew 0.3% for the third quarter, which was down from the second quarter’s 0.4% gain, as
the U.K. came in with an annual rate of 2.1%. The ECB reduced the bank deposit rate to -0.30% from
the previous -0.20%, as it extended its asset buying by six months (to March 2017), but it failed to
increase the USD 63 billion level of monthly buying—which was expected (helped by ECB President
Draghi’s “whatever it takes” attitude).
Since the market is all about expectations, markets retreated on
the news, with the euro moving up. The Bank of Japan slightly increased its quantitative easing
program by buying longer-term bonds (from 7-year to 10-year maturities to 7-year to 12-year
maturities). The People’s Bank of China estimated that China would grow 6.8% in 2016, slightly down
from the prior expectation of 6.9%.
In the U.S., the third and final report on third-quarter GDP came in
as expected, at 2.0%. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for November disappointed (coming in at
55.9, when a level of 59.1 was expected), as did the ISM manufacturing report (coming in at 48.6, when
50.5 was expected). Construction Spending for October came in stronger than expected, up 1.0% for
the month, when a 0.6% gain was expected, as the year-over-year increase was 13.0%.
The U.S.
November employment report posted 211,000 net new jobs, when 190,000 new jobs were expected for
the month, and construction jobs were up (46,000), with most of that gain in residential construction
(26,000). The unemployment rate was flat (at 5.0%; 7.9 million workers), as the average hours worked
slightly declined to 34.5 from an upwardly restated 34.6 last month, which was originally reported at
34.5, with the average hourly wage increasing 0.2% (to USD 25.25). November exports declined more
2
.
Market Attributes | U.S. Equities
December 2015
than expected, while imports came in better, with the takeaway being that exports were off 6.3% yearover-year and imports were off 9.4% year-over-year. The November CPI ex-food and energy rate was
at 2.0% year-over-year. U.S.
housing news was mixed, but optimism continued. The NAHB Housing
Market Index came in down, while Housing Starts, the FHFA Home Price Index, and the S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index all came in better than expected, but the New Home Sales report missed its
expectation. However, the headline grabber was the Existing Home Sales report, which came in with a
10.5% decline and a year-over-year change of -3.8%.
In global M&A, 2015 was reportedly at USD 4.30 trillion through November, surpassing the record of
USD 4.29 trillion in 2007, with the U.S.
component reported to be in excess of USD 2 trillion. General
Electric (GE; up 4.0% for the month) said it had abandoned its plans to sell its portion of its household
appliance business to Electrolux (ELUXY; off 17.6% for the month) for a planned USD 3.3 billion. JAB
Holdings (which holds other coffee producers) said it would buy Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) for
USD 13.9 billion, a 78% premium.
The amazing premium, however, is relative, as Keurig Green
Mountain closed the month up 71.2% but off 32.0% for the year. Chemical issues Dow Chemical
(DOW; off 1.2% for the month) and E.I. Du Pont De Nemours (DD; off 1.1% for the month) said it would
merge via a share swap deal, resulting in almost equal ownership.
U.K. biopharmaceutical issue
AstraZeneca (AZN; off 0.3% for the month) said it was in talks to acquire privately held Dutch cancer
bio issue Acerta Pharma; the Street’s price tag was USD 5 billion. Consumer products maker Newell
Rubbermaid (NWL; off 1.3% for the month) said it would buy privately owned competitor Jarden for
USD 15 billion.
Microcomputer parts maker Micron Technology (MU; off 11.1% for the month) said it
would purchase Taiwanese chip maker Inotera Memories (Micron currently holds 33% of Inotera) for
USD 3.2 billion in cash and debt. Credit card and payment transfer issue Global Payments (GPN; off
8.9% for the month) said it would buy rival Heartland Payment Systems (HPY; up 13.6% for the month)
for USD 4.3 billion in cash and stock. Qatar National Bank said it would buy the National Bank of
Greece’s Turkish banking unit for USD 2.9 billion.
In deal problems, railroad issue Norfolk Southern
(NSC; down 11.0% for the month) formally rejected several offers from Canadian Pacific, calling them
“grossly inadequate.” U.S. regulators sued on anti-trust grounds to stop the planned merger of office
product superstore Staples (SPLS; off 21.5% for the month) and Office Depot (ODP; off 14.4% for the
month).
In other news, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services downgraded the ratings for eight large U.S. banks,
as it said, “we now consider the likelihood that the U.S.
government would provide extraordinary
support to its banking system to be ‘uncertain’ and are removing the uplift based on government
support from our ratings.” The issues were Bank of America (BAC), Bank of New York Mellon (BK),
Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), State Street
(STT), and Wells Fargo (WFC). Argentina’s new president, Mauricio Macri (who assumed office Dec.
10, 2015), lifted the country’s currency control on the peso, permitting it to trade freely. In Venezuela’s
mid-term elections, the opposition party won major positions, as socialist President Maduro was seen
as weakened.
OPEC announced that its November production had set a three-year high (an average
of 31.70 million barrels a day, as Saudi Arabia averaged 10.13 million—32% of production), and oil fell
solidly under USD 40, becoming comfortable in the mid-to-high USD 30s—its lowest price since
December 2008. OPEC also released its World Oil Outlook, with its estimates predicting that a basket
of mixed types of oil would reach USD 70 in 2020 and USD 95 in 2040. OPEC also estimated that it
would pump 30.7 million barrels of oil a day in 2020, which is less than its November 2015 production.
3
.
Market Attributes | U.S. Equities
December 2015
On an issue level, U.K.-based mining issue Anglo American plc (NGLOY; off 127.7% for the month)
said it would restructure its business, sell 60% of its assets, cut 85,000 workers (of 135,000), and
suspend its dividend through 2016. Commodity issue Glencore International PLC (GLNCY; off 8.0% for
the month) said it would cut debt, reduce operations, sell assets, and suspend its dividend. Natural gas
transportation and storage issue Kinder Morgan (KMI; off 36.7% for the month) cut its dividend 75%, as
mining issue Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX; off 17.2% for the month) suspended its dividend
after the company had cut it by 84% in March.
However, natural gas issue ONEOK (OKE) issued
guidance and saw its dividend as being flat for 2016, meaning no cut; the issue moved up on the news,
but it still ended the month off 16.4%. Not making earnings (or expected forecasts) cost equipment and
services for transportation issue Ciena (CIEN) 17.4% for the month, and it cost clothing retailer Men’s
Wearhouse (MW) 26.6% for the month. Retail drug store Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA; up 1.3% for
the month) and pharmaceutical supplier Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX; up 13.0% for the month)
announced a long-term agreement on distribution, as Valeant’s CEO took a medical leave.
Electronics
issue Toshiba (TOSYY; off 16.0% for the month) said it expected to report a loss for its fiscal year,
ending March 2016, and it announced it would cut 8,600 workers as part of restructuring.
S&P Dow Jones Indices added personal care and product maker Church & Dwight (CHD) to the S&P
500 as it removed Altera (ALTR), while Comcast Cl ‘A’ Special (CMCSK) was deleted from the S&P
500 and was reclassified into Comcast Cl ‘A’ (CMCSA). S&P DJI announced that it would add
insurance issue Willis Group Holdings (WSH) and remove Fossil Group (FOSL) from the S&P 500 after
the close on Jan. 4, 2016.
Interest rates were little changed for the month, as the U.S.
Fed increased interest rates 0.25% in
December. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed at 2.27% (from last month’s 2.22%, year-end
2014’s 2.17%, and 2013’s 3.03%).
The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond closed at 3.02% (2.98%, 2.92%,
2.75%). The U.S.
dollar declined against the euro (while the ECB action was seen as weak), as the
euro closed at 1.0861 (1.0569, 1.1007, 1.2098), the pound closed at 1.4776 (1.5055, 1.5427, 1.5582),
the yen closed at 120.66 (123.26, 120.62, 119.80 [reverse reference, which is usually used]), and the
yuan closed at 6.4930 (6.3994 last month, and 6.2104 prior to the Aug. 10, 2015, devaluation). Gold
decreased to close at USD 1,060.50 (1,064.30, 1,141.70, 1,183.20).
Oil moved from the low-USD 40
area to the mid-to-upper USD 30s and closed the month at USD 37.06 (41.72, 46.69, 53.27). U.S.
pump prices decreased to end the month at USD 2.034 (2.094, 2.228, 2.299). VIX, “the fear factor,”
increased, closing at 18.21, up from last month’s 16.13 and down from its 19.20 2014 close.
INDEX REVIEW
S&P 500
Historically, December is up 73.6% of the time, with the end of the year often referred to as the “Santa
Clause rally.” Well, someone may have been naughty this year, because Santa never showed up, and
the December decline of 1.75% pushed 2015 into the loss column, be it by just 0.73%.
The mildly “flat”
year, however, hid the underlying volatility in issues and sectors, as the index did what it typically does:
melds the winners and losers. For 2015, the net change of -0.73% did not reflect the underlying
swings. Three-hundred and thirty issues moved at least 10% (139 up at least 10% and 191 down at
least 10%), as 137 issues, one in four, moved at least 25% (46 up at least 25% and 92 down at least
25%); despite that, the headlines said little movement.
The underlying volatility made it a stock picker’s
year, meaning if you were good it, you should still be celebrating; but if you were less than good, you
may still be crying at the table. As for index-based investors, they received a 1.38% total return for the
4
. Market Attributes | U.S. Equities
December 2015
year, which was better than the bank but nothing to really celebrate about, unless they are comparing
themselves to the active investors whose investments went south.
As for December, it was another difficult month for the S&P 500, as the hopes going into the month
were met with downturns. The overall index declined 1.75% (off 1.58% with dividends), as 6 of the 10
sectors fell. Chief among them was energy, which declined 10.0%, as oil became comfortable in the
mid-to-upper USD 30 area, and research reports became comfortable with the potential for a price of
USD 20.
For the year, energy was down 23.55%, easily the worst sector. Absent energy’s decline,
S&P 500 2015 performance would have been in the black for the year, up 1.37%. Materials was the
other major decliner, as it fell with commodity prices, coming in down 4.43% for the month and posting
a double-digit decline of 10.36% for 2015.
Consumer staples was the winner for the month, as the
sector moved up 2.51% to close the year up 3.77%. Consumer discretionary fell 2.97% in December,
as concern continued over consumer spending and the brick-and-mortar versus web-based issues
battle continued; the sector was still up 8.43% for the year, the best of any group. Health care added
1.61%, as the 2016 Obamacare sign-ups increased more than expected.
Concern continues over the
profitability of Obamacare, but for now earnings in healthcare are rising, helped mostly by increased
sales (via increased coverage). The sector ended 2015 up 5.21% and was up 29.73% over the twoyear period—both rates the best of any sector. Utilities, which was last year’s winner, rebounded
1.85% in December, but it was not enough to salvage the year, as the sector fell 8.39% for 2015 but
remained up 13.86% for the two-year period.
For the month, 182 issues increased (an average 3.70%), as 321 declined (an average loss of 6.41%);
eight moved up at least 10% and 58% declined at least 10%.
For the year, breadth turned negative,
with 215 issues up (an average of 17.99%) and 282 down (an average of -20.31%); 139 issues were up
at least 10% and 191 issues were down at least 10%. Volatility was expected to increase in January,
as earnings will start to dominate market attention. Overall, earnings are expected to increase over the
poor showing in Q3 2015, but it will be 2016 earnings that could move the index more, as full-year
guidance from companies will be compared to Wall Street’s expectation.
The Dow®
It was not a good month, or year, for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as the headline index posted a
1.66% decline in December and ended the year with a 2.23% loss.
While The Dow did better than the
S&P 500 for the month, it trailed the S&P 500 in 2015 (the S&P 500 was off 0.73%) and for the twoyear period (The Dow was up 5.12% and the S&P 500 was up 10.58%). Two-thirds of The Dow issues
fell for the month, as 10 increased (an average increase of 2.82%) and 20 declined (an average loss of
3.00%). For the year, 13 gained (an average of 15.37%) and 17 declined (an average of -12.12%).
Results varied greatly, as 17 of the 30 issues moved at least 10% (nine up and eight down).
For the
month, iPhone maker Apple (AAPL) did the worst, falling 11.02% and posting its first annual loss since
2008, off 4.64%, as concern over the issue’s growth continued. Theme park issue Walk Disney (DIS)
fell 7.39% in December, as concern over its media subscriptions overshadowed its new Star Wars
movie, but it ended the year up a healthy 11.56%. Personal and household products issue Proctor &
Gamble (PG) did the best in December, up 6.11%, followed by managed healthcare issue UnitedHealth
Group (UNH), up 4.37% for the month (helped by higher sign-ups).
For the year, footwear and athletic
apparel issue NIKE (NKE) did the best, up 30.01%, even though it declined 5.50% in December, as it
did a 2-for-1 stock split. Fast-food restaurant issue McDonalds (MCD) ended the year up 26.08%, and
it added 3.49% in December, as it continues to turn itself around via new menu items (all-day breakfast)
5
. Market Attributes | U.S. Equities
December 2015
and cost cuts. Giant discount retailer Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) performed the worst in 2015, falling
28.62% (even as it was up 4.18% in December), while web-based retailers cut into the traditional brickand-mortar issue. Earth-moving machinery issue Caterpillar (CAT) lost 6.46% in December to end the
year off 25.75%, as foreign currencies hurt it.
Energy issues fell, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) off 15.68%
for the year (off 4.54% for December) and Chevron (CVX) off 19.81% for 2015 (off 1.49% for
December).
S&P MidCap 400
The S&P MidCap 400 posted a 4.33% decline in December after November’s 1.18% gain, as the
decline left the index off 3.71% for the year (the worst of any of the core indices), but the index was still
up 4.17% over the two-year period and up 37.06% over the three-year period. While the downturn was
broad, with 9 of the 10 sectors lower, energy was the main issue, as the sector posted a devastating
18.91% decline for the month, the worst of any sector in any of the headline indices, with a decline of
34.08% for 2015 and a two-year loss of 41.41%—meaning the sector has lost over half its value.
Telecommunication services fell 8.49% in December, as it finished the year off 13.85%. Materials was
off 6.00% for the month, making it the third sector in the index to post a double-digit decline for 2015,
off 14.55% for the year and off 10.82% for the two-year period.
Utilities was the only sector to gain for
the month, as it rebounded 1.10% in December, but it fell short for the year, off 8.94%; the sector
remained positive, up 4.97%, for the two-year period, thanks to its 2014 performance. Breadth turned
negative for the month, as 91 issues gained (an average gain of 4.10%), down from last month’s 254
issues and the prior month’s 321 issues, while 308 declined (an average decrease of 8.19%),
compared with last month’s 146 decliners and the prior month’s 77. Overall moves of at least 10%
increased, and not for the better, as six issues gained at least 10% (31 did so in the prior month) but 87
fell at least 10% (28 declined at least 10% in the prior month).
For the year, breadth was negative, with
172 issues up (an average of 15.70%) and 219 down (an average of -21.69). The telling stat of the
S&P MidCap 400, however, was that almost 60% of the issues moved at least 10%, 94 up and 164
down, as the year’s diverse returns left the index off 3.71%.
S&P SmallCap 600
The S&P SmallCap 600 performed the worst of any of the headline indices in December, falling a broad
4.95%, wiping out its 2015 gains, and leaving it with a 3.36% decline for 2015. The declines were
widespread, as decliners outnumbered gainers almost 4-to-1.
For the month, 124 issues gained (an
average increase of 5.67%), down from last month’s 397 issues and the prior month’s 441 gainers, as
475 issues declined (an average loss of 8.61%), up from last month’s 201 issues and the prior month’s
157 decliners. All 10 sectors declined; energy (similar to the other core indices) posted the worst
performance, off 17.54% for the month and ending the year off 47.70%. Over the two-year period, midcap energy has fallen 66.63%.
Materials ended in ninth place, off 7.55% for the month, leaving it off
26.61% for the year. Health care did relatively well, off 0.36% for the month, as it was the shining
sector for the year, up 20.39%—the best sector in any headline index. Health care was up 33.53% for
the two-year period, as demand for healthcare products and services continues to grow.
Both
consumer discretionary and consumer staples did poorly for the month, off 4.69% and off 5.09%,
respectively, but the sectors diverged for the year, as consumer discretionary fell 9.61% and consumer
staples managed to limit its 2015 loss to 1.07%. Utilities did the best in December, off 0.27%, and it
posted a positive year, up 3.84%.
6
. Market Attributes | U.S. Equities
December 2015
S&P Global BMI
Global markets closed out the year with a decline for the year and the month, as mixed markets
resulted in a global 1.93% decline in December, with 22 of the 47 markets posting gains for the month.
Markets varied less than usual, as slow trading and year-end holiday schedules affected trading. The
variance, however, was quantifiable in sectors, as energy posted a broad 9.43% decline for the month,
while oil and commodities continued their 18-month fall. The reason behind the oil fall was the same—
high supply, with no producer willing to cut supplies, and weak demand, even as prices declined.
The
combination has led to predictions of continued low prices, with the war for market share persisting.
Emerging and developed markets showed similar performance in December. Emerging markets fell
1.94% for the month, as 10 of the 22 markets gained (and 12 fell). Egypt did the best, up 10.37% in
December, but the rebound still left the group 27.50% in the red for the year.
South Africa did the worst
for the month, off 10.46%, with its 2015 posting in the red by 26.62%. Developed markets declined
1.92% in December, as 12 of the 25 market gained (and 13 declined). New Zealand did the best, up
7.70% for the month, as it posted a 4.58% loss for 2015.
Canada did the worst in December, off
7.72%, ending the year off 26.17%. The U.S. posted a 2.19% decline for December, as its 2015
posting was in the red by 1.49%.
For the year, the impact of the U.S. was again positive, even though
the country was in the red. Global markets were off 3.89% for the year, but excluding the U.S.
they
were off 6.30%, as the two-year period shows global markets down 2.00% but down 11.58% without
the U.S. The U.S. now accounts for 51.1% of the global equity market—it accounted for 47.8% two
years ago.
Only six of the global markets posted a gain for 2015, but three of them did so via doubledigit gains (Hungary with 28.79%, Ireland with 24.18%, and Denmark with 22.37%). Two-year returns
were just as poor, as 10 markets posted gains, while the three-year period had 23 of the 47 post
positive returns.
7
. Market Attributes | U.S. Equities
December 2015
PERFORMANCE RECAP
Exhibit 2: Monthly Returns
S&P 500
Price
1-Month (%)
YTD (%)
3-Year (%)
5-Year (%)
FR 12/99 (%)
Energy
448.44
-10.00
-23.55
-15.86
-11.51
110.81
Materials
273.64
-4.43
-10.36
15.16
14.20
71.07
Industrials
463.53
-2.21
-4.72
41.00
53.93
69.56
Consumer Discretionary
621.02
-2.97
8.43
65.14
110.13
107.49
Consumer Staples
518.42
2.51
3.77
43.69
70.77
149.18
Health Care
833.23
1.61
5.21
79.98
128.42
154.98
Financials
321.73
-2.35
-3.48
45.42
49.80
0.00
Information Technology
721.48
-2.33
4.27
55.55
78.34
-10.65
Telecommunication Services
149.91
1.72
-1.73
2.65
16.45
-53.56
Utilities
220.00
1.85
-8.39
23.83
38.07
54.46
S&P 500
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P MidCap 400
Energy
2043.94
-1.75
-0.73
43.31
62.52
39.11
Price
1-Month (%)
YTD (%)
3-Year (%)
5-Year (%)
FR 12/99 (%)
17425.03
-1.66
-2.23
32.97
50.51
51.56
Price
1-Month (%)
YTD (%)
3-Year (%)
5-Year (%)
FR 12/99 (%)
426.16
-18.91
-34.08
-38.71
-45.85
142.88
Materials
318.49
-6.00
-14.55
9.19
29.87
187.01
Industrials
659.95
-6.00
-4.28
36.77
61.34
270.72
Consumer Discretionary
624.31
-2.98
-9.16
40.62
73.04
213.86
Consumer Staples
1505.92
-3.41
-4.55
74.56
143.05
764.40
Health Care
1207.49
-0.92
8.86
95.17
148.24
582.53
713.89
-3.55
2.21
38.85
45.77
115.78
1540.74
-4.97
-0.02
37.68
39.39
82.85
Telecommunication Services
234.88
-8.49
-13.85
25.13
28.10
-50.36
Utilities
395.09
1.10
-8.94
29.06
47.73
185.22
1398.58
-4.33
-3.71
37.06
54.16
214.52
Financials
Information Technology
S&P MidCap 400
S&P SmallCap 600
Price
1-Month (%)
YTD (%)
3-Year (%)
5-Year (%)
FR 12/99 (%)
Energy
559.04
-17.54
-47.70
-53.92
-53.02
259.74
Materials
317.93
-7.55
-26.61
-1.94
10.51
130.62
Industrials
711.08
-7.42
-6.27
34.20
51.65
255.65
Consumer Discretionary
421.45
-4.69
-9.61
38.84
65.63
210.96
Consumer Staples
1327.38
-5.09
-1.07
55.08
87.24
565.85
Health Care
1719.50
-0.36
20.39
107.66
166.32
849.79
Financials
735.23
-5.73
-2.56
31.45
48.57
151.01
Information Technology
456.15
-3.52
4.14
69.65
81.06
66.80
2.47
-2.76
0.31
1.95
-11.38
-96.64
Utilities
693.15
-0.27
3.84
42.80
59.26
269.29
S&P SmallCap 600
671.74
-4.95
-3.36
40.95
61.58
239.62
Telecommunication Services
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Dec. 31, 2015.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative
purposes. Returns shown are price returns.
8
.
Market Attributes | U.S. Equities
December 2015
Exhibit 3: Total Returns
Index
1-Month (%)
YTD (%)
3-Year (%)
5-Year (%)
10-Year (%)
S&P 500
-1.58
1.38
52.59
80.75
102.42
S&P MidCap 400
-4.17
-2.18
43.35
66.06
119.46
S&P SmallCap 600
-4.79
-1.97
46.50
72.15
116.00
S&P Composite 1500
-1.88
0.95
53.36
91.34
104.50
Dow Jones Industrial Average
-1.52
0.33
44.10
79.93
109.44
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Dec. 31, 2015.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative
purposes.
Exhibit 4: S&P Global BMI, Emerging, Sorted by December Performance
BMI Member
1-Month (%)
6-Month (%)
YTD (%)
2-Year (%)
3-Year (%)
Global
-1.93
-5.92
Global Ex-U.S.
-1.64
-9.38
-3.89
-2.00
18.72
-6.30
-11.58
0.25
Emerging
-1.94
-17.76
-15.84
-17.57
-20.89
Egypt
10.37
-17.49
-27.50
-8.43
2.63
5.33
-10.28
-23.09
-7.34
-29.77
Qatar
4.28
-15.04
-18.65
0.06
24.05
Columbia
2.32
-28.53
-41.04
-52.71
-61.15
India
1.98
-5.96
-3.91
26.48
18.47
Hungary
1.92
6.19
28.79
-8.12
-7.95
U.A.E.
1.36
-20.22
-18.09
-12.09
60.35
Chile
1.25
-14.27
-19.16
-29.58
-45.12
Malaysia
0.60
-12.27
-20.55
-29.87
-26.82
Philippines
0.32
-12.06
-10.64
8.72
0.14
Greece
-0.35
-36.40
-47.94
-68.58
-53.99
Taiwan
-0.58
-16.87
-14.24
-11.81
-3.18
Poland
-0.65
-20.06
-23.41
-35.96
-34.02
Czech Republic
-0.76
-10.96
-13.12
-22.21
-34.42
China
-1.01
-17.25
-6.01
-3.16
3.87
Peru
-4.61
-27.43
-34.41
-35.18
-53.36
Mexico
-4.88
-12.13
-14.91
-23.15
-22.97
Turkey
-5.04
-19.76
-32.07
-22.28
-42.69
Brazil
-5.70
-37.01
-44.30
-54.53
-63.24
Thailand
-6.40
-20.56
-22.78
-10.74
-22.25
Russia
-9.76
-18.76
0.80
-48.57
-49.45
-10.46
-27.56
-26.62
-23.67
-29.46
Indonesia
South Africa
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Dec.
31, 2015. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative
purposes.
Returns shown are price returns.
9
. Market Attributes | U.S. Equities
December 2015
Exhibit 5: S&P Global BMI, Developed, Sorted by December Performance
BMI Member
1-Month (%)
6-Month (%)
YTD (%)
2-Year (%)
3-Year (%)
Developed
-1.92
-4.61
-2.57
-0.21
24.23
Developed Ex-U.S.
-1.57
-7.30
-3.91
-10.09
6.16
New Zealand
7.70
8.84
-4.58
1.68
14.22
Portugal
4.51
-6.17
-0.68
-34.29
-19.36
Australia
3.09
-8.02
-12.96
-20.17
-21.54
Denmark
2.92
5.12
22.37
30.31
71.06
Switzerland
1.22
-4.74
-0.83
-1.30
24.10
Israel
0.96
-1.21
4.75
13.92
29.44
Ireland
0.65
7.03
24.18
25.19
79.26
Hong Kong
0.49
-13.60
-5.37
-5.26
1.97
Japan
0.32
-3.52
8.69
3.50
29.08
Finland
0.25
2.42
0.47
-5.18
28.42
Belgium
0.21
3.53
9.37
10.82
36.72
Singapore
0.07
-16.71
-18.86
-19.72
-22.11
Austria
-0.89
-3.16
0.82
-20.44
-10.44
Sweden
-1.17
-2.38
-1.57
-10.02
11.51
United States
-2.19
-2.43
-1.49
8.74
42.20
Germany
-2.21
-3.22
-2.46
-13.79
10.64
Italy
-2.56
-5.88
3.20
-9.21
11.73
Netherlands
-2.59
-6.25
0.53
-2.77
24.73
Korea
-2.71
-10.03
-5.01
-14.47
-11.78
France
-3.10
-4.24
-0.84
-11.90
10.58
Luxembourg
-3.24
-27.30
-29.26
-39.41
-33.38
United Kingdom
-3.57
-10.00
-8.48
-15.95
0.17
Spain
-5.44
-14.49
-17.41
-22.91
1.45
Norway
-6.55
-18.71
-17.40
-37.31
-32.25
Canada
-7.22
-20.12
-26.17
-27.74
-25.59
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Dec. 31, 2015.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative
purposes. Returns shown are price returns.
10
.
Market Attributes | U.S. Equities
December 2015
Exhibit 6: Price-to-Earnings Ratios
Index
2012
2013
2014
Estimated 2015
S&P 500
13.04
14.73
18.09
19.21
S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary
14.83
16.89
22.42
20.50
S&P 500 Consumer Staples
15.69
15.96
21.46
21.26
S&P 500 Energy
10.86
12.03
10.44
-161.89
S&P 500 Financials
10.79
13.46
14.65
13.81
S&P 500 Health Care
12.93
14.68
23.29
20.37
S&P 500 Industrials
13.95
14.76
17.28
16.41
S&P 500 Information Technology
13.04
14.19
19.50
18.55
S&P 500 Materials
13.07
16.20
17.26
24.74
S&P 500 Telecommunication Services
18.95
43.21
20.79
13.13
S&P 500 Utilities
14.67
14.84
16.64
16.09
Index
2012
2013
2014
Estimated 2015
S&P MidCap 400
17.48
18.71
23.76
22.06
S&P 400 Consumer Discretionary
18.51
18.19
20.67
18.74
S&P 400 Consumer Staples
16.31
16.80
26.67
20.84
S&P 400 Energy
15.10
22.82
15.40
-13.85
S&P 400 Financials
22.11
18.61
19.62
19.71
S&P 400 Health Care
17.17
21.24
31.30
23.44
S&P 400 Industrials
14.74
15.55
18.22
16.69
S&P 400 Information Technology
18.06
23.60
32.56
28.92
S&P 400 Materials
15.39
17.93
-838.13
20.08
S&P 400 Telecommunication Services
22.72
34.07
-60.07
12.84
S&P 400 Utilities
17.48
15.52
17.40
18.07
Index
2012
2013
2014
Estimated 2015
S&P SmallCap 600
20.16
22.04
25.08
28.85
S&P 600 Consumer Discretionary
18.81
21.45
22.41
19.52
S&P 600 Consumer Staples
20.78
18.26
20.47
18.80
S&P 600 Energy
19.90
77.57
-8.28
-2.51
S&P 600 Financials
25.17
20.10
19.24
19.68
S&P 600 Health Care
19.57
21.59
36.71
40.84
S&P 600 Industrials
16.86
17.85
20.77
18.93
S&P 600 Information Technology
23.20
31.37
35.14
27.28
S&P 600 Materials
16.62
22.56
16.92
23.87
S&P 600 Telecommunication Services
15.73
24.20
13.72
30.88
S&P 600 Utilities
16.52
16.69
18.85
19.97
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Dec. 31, 2015.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative
purposes.
11
. Market Attributes | U.S. Equities
December 2015
Exhibit 7: Operating EPS Changes
Q4 2014
Over
Q4 2013 (%)
-5.31
Q1 2015
Over
Q1 2014 (%)
-5.53
Q2 2015E
Over
Q2 2014 (%)
-10.91
Q3 2015E
Over
Q3 2014 (%)
-14.05
15.10
4.23
9.50
17.10
S&P 500 Consumer Staples
-10.96
2.88
0.95
S&P 500 Energy
Index
S&P 500
S&P 500 Consumer
Discretionary
Q4 2015E
Over
Q4 2014 (%)
8.41
2014
Over
2013 (%)
5.32
2015E
Over
2014 (%)
-5.86
6.49
10.27
9.39
-3.26
3.59
0.88
0.91
-28.45
-104.10
-104.27
-135.99
-59.35
1.39
-106.45
S&P 500 Financials
-6.64
12.36
-0.34
4.74
8.13
4.22
6.06
S&P 500 Health Care
10.47
17.89
1.47
6.79
32.72
10.33
14.31
S&P 500 Industrials
2.11
5.97
-2.25
9.34
8.57
7.80
5.33
S&P 500 Information
Technology
18.14
11.18
3.99
3.70
2.76
10.18
5.14
S&P 500 Materials
-0.33
-30.25
-15.59
-68.03
-2.98
12.97
-30.22
-122.94
2.84
0.68
4.00
312.50
-41.52
58.39
6.20
Q4 2014
Over
Q4 2013 (%)
-4.66
15.66
Q1 2015
Over
Q1 2014 (%)
4.98
12.50
Q2 2015E
Over
Q2 2014 (%)
-11.52
-5.31
Q3 2015E
Over
Q3 2014 (%)
20.78
-5.84
Q4 2015E
Over
Q4 2014 (%)
19.99
8.99
2014
Over
2013 (%)
-1.88
3.40
2015E
Over
2014 (%)
7.71
37.94
31.97
7.50
18.33
-2.04
12.35
10.30
S&P 500 Telecommunication
Services
S&P 500 Utilities
Index
S&P MidCap 400
S&P 400 Consumer
Discretionary
S&P 400 Consumer Staples
-8.51
15.38
48.31
30.53
20.80
2.13
28.00
-157.23
-134.45
-327.82
-170.82
171.24
-16.13
-211.24
4.95
8.50
3.13
-9.41
-2.47
18.19
-0.44
30.15
16.09
28.57
49.84
38.14
26.08
33.54
S&P 400 Industrials
-17.38
4.61
6.27
0.83
30.19
1.63
9.14
S&P 400 Information
Technology
-0.27
27.75
-2.90
-8.55
36.69
-0.86
12.60
-63.16
8.29
-15.04
131.74
93.17
-101.92
4273.68
24.05
1720.00
1190.00
N/A
2.85
-131.36
567.77
-2.00
Q4 2014
Over
Q4 2013 (%)
4.05
-3.76
Q1 2015
Over
Q1 2014 (%)
-16.44
-1.00
Q2 2015E
Over
Q2 2014 (%)
-21.01
-12.46
Q3 2015E
Over
Q3 2014 (%)
-32.30
6.95
Q4 2015E
Over
Q4 2014 (%)
15.42
5.48
2014
Over
2013 (%)
5.72
-3.70
2015E
Over
2014 (%)
-13.07
S&P 600 Consumer
Discretionary
29.71
21.66
20.97
14.97
5.42
5.50
14.78
S&P 600 Consumer Staples
59.84
77.56
-0.52
5.20
-14.86
37.42
8.88
-1698.62
-1370.42
-1383.61
-227.91
90.44
-308.72
-229.75
S&P 600 Financials
20.98
0.75
-1.47
-7.96
0.19
10.72
-2.25
S&P 600 Health Care
50.91
16.97
-13.77
-16.76
-17.23
21.28
-10.12
7.48
11.23
12.39
9.73
5.86
4.97
9.73
-18.59
10.33
41.89
9.27
52.49
9.35
28.81
41.94
17.84
-51.04
-33.12
-23.35
56.19
-29.11
N/A
100.00
-88.89
400.00
N/A
125.00
-55.56
37.64
-5.06
-6.23
7.04
-9.16
20.64
-5.60
S&P 400 Energy
S&P 400 Financials
S&P 400 Health Care
S&P 400 Materials
S&P 400 Telecommunication
Services
S&P 400 Utilities
Index
S&P SmallCap 600
S&P 600 Energy
S&P 600 Industrials
S&P 600 Information
Technology
S&P 600 Materials
S&P 600 Telecommunication
Services
S&P 600 Utilities
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Dec. 31, 2015.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative
purposes.
12
. Market Attributes | U.S. Equities
December 2015
Exhibit 8: Breadth of Change (Issues With Monthly Price Changes as Described by Type)
S&P 500
358
Average %
Change
9.99
-6.41
144
20.35
144
-15.25
1
Down <= -25%
Up >= 50%
Down <= -50%
Type
215
Average %
Change
17.99
-10.36
282
-20.31
17.53
139
25.19
53
-20.98
191
-27.84
71.72
16
38.06
46
42.75
4
-31.24
12
-36.07
92
-39.41
1
71.72
3
60.59
7
81.18
0
0.00
1
-53.77
16
-61.92
December 2015
Up
183
Down
321
8
58
Up >= 25%
Up >= 10%
Down <= -10%
Average %
Change
3.70
3-Month
YTD
S&P MidCap 400
Type
December 2015
Up
91
Down
Average %
Change
4.10
242
Average %
Change
10.00
3-Month
172
Average %
Change
15.70
YTD
308
Down <= -25%
-10.99
219
-21.69
92
18.94
94
24.91
-16.17
66
-20.33
164
-27.40
1
Up >= 25%
158
24.49
87
Down <= -10%
-8.19
6
Up >= 10%
59.56
15
36.96
34
39.32
10
-33.51
17
-32.74
76
-40.46
Up >= 50%
1
59.56
2
58.48
9
59.29
Down <= -50%
0
0.00
0
0.00
13
-63.71
S&P SmallCap 600
Type
341
Average %
Change
14.51
-8.51
257
15.80
189
-16.09
1
December 2015
Up
124
Down
475
24
156
Up >= 10%
Down <= -10%
Up >= 25%
Down <= -25%
Average %
Change
5.67
242
Average %
Change
23.70
-12.33
350
-26.88
22.47
158
33.61
115
-21.83
269
-33.51
41.07
58
37.03
86
47.36
3-Month
YTD
20
-30.56
32
-37.52
152
-46.13
Up >= 50%
0
0.00
9
55.85
26
76.27
Down <= -50%
0
0.00
4
-57.95
57
-64.91
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Up
10
Average %
Change
2.82
Down
Type
December 2015
3-Month
26
Average %
Change
10.49
13
Average %
Change
15.37
YTD
20
-3.00
4
-5.32
17
-12.12
Up >= 10%
0
0.00
12
17.11
9
20.25
Down <= -10%
1
-11.02
0
0.00
8
-19.83
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Dec. 31, 2015.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative
purposes.
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13
. Market Attributes | U.S. Equities
December 2015
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.