EQUITY 101 | U.S.
Mid Cap: A Sweet Spot for Performance
CONTRIBUTORS
Fei Mei Chan
Associate Director
Index Investment Strategy
feimei.chan@spdji.com
Craig J. Lazzara, CFA
Managing Director
Index Investment Strategy
craig.lazzara@spdji.com
The distinct performance profile of the U.S. equity market’s mid-cap constituents has
presented investors with an opportunity over much of the past two decades. Not
unlike the human life cycle, companies go through periods of growth and maturation.
Mid caps capture a period in the typical enterprise life cycle in which firms have
successfully navigated the challenges inherent to small companies, such as raising
initial capital and managing early growth, but are still quite dynamic and not so large
®
that rapid growth is unattainable.
The performance of the S&P MidCap 400 reflects
®
this business dynamic. The index has outperformed the S&P 500 and the S&P
®
SmallCap 600 for most of the past 20 years (see Exhibit 1).
Exhibit 1: Performance of the S&P SmallCap 600, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P
500
13000
12000
Mid-cap companies
have navigated the
challenges inherent
to small companies,
but still have
potential for rapid
growth.
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
S&P 500
S&P MidCap 400
S&P SmallCap 600
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data from Dec.
31, 1994, through Aug. 31, 2015. Daily index levels rebased
to 1,000 on Dec.
31, 1994. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes. Past performance is no guarantee of future
results.
For the most part, mid caps have consistently outperformed large caps over various
timeframes (see Exhibit 2).
With the exception of the period from July 1991 to March
2000, when the performance spread was negligible, the S&P MidCap 400 has
outperformed the S&P 500 in periods with contrasting market regimes (i.e., in both
weak and strong markets).
. Mid Caps: A Sweet Spot for Performance
September 2015
Exhibit 2: Comparative Performance of the S&P MidCap 400 and the S&P 500
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
July 1, 1991–
March 24, 2000
March 25, 2000– Oct. 8, 2002–Oct.
Oct. 7, 2002
9, 2007
S&P 500
The mid-cap
segment is ripe for
passive investing.
Oct. 10, 2007–
March 5, 2009
March 6, 2009–
Aug.
31, 2015
S&P MidCap 400
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data from July 1, 1991, through Aug. 31, 2015.
Chart is provided for
illustrative purposes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
THE EFFICIENT MARKETS HYPOTHESIS—NULL FOR THE MID-CAP SEGMENT?
Advocates of active management argue that there is a stronger case for passive
investing in the large-cap segment and more room for the role of the active manager
in the mid- and small-cap arenas. This view is based on the assumption that the
efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), which posits that share prices account for all
relevant information, and therefore always trade at fair values, is more applicable to
large caps because there is better research coverage of the big names in the market.
Mid- and small-cap companies, in contrast, are often thought to be underresearched
and would therefore offer more fertile ground for active managers.
Neither theory nor evidence supports the idea that the EMH is any less applicable to
mid- and small-cap companies.
The argument for passive investing in any market
1
segment is illustrated by William F. Sharpe using simple arithmetic : the market
return is the weighted average of the returns on the passive and active segments of
the market. If returns on the passively managed segment of the market equal the
market return, then the return on the actively managed segment must also mirror the
market.
Therefore, the average passive manager will generate the same returns as
the average active manager, before expenses.
However, active management can be more expensive than passive management, so
the return on the actively managed dollar must be less than that of the average
passively managed dollar. Segmenting by market capitalization does not negate the
principles of basic arithmetic.
®
This is corroborated by data from S&P Indices Versus Active (SPIVA ) Scorecard
(see Exhibit 3). Over the three- and five-year periods, more than 60% of actively
managed funds underperformed their relative benchmarks across all market
capitalization classes.
1
William F.
Sharpe, “The Arithmetic of Active Management,” The Financial Analysts’ Journal, Vol. 47, No. 1, January/February 1991.
2
.
Mid Caps: A Sweet Spot for Performance
September 2015
Exhibit 3: Actively Managed U.S. Equity Funds That Underperformed Their Benchmarks
Fund Category
Comparison Index
80.80
67.69
78.44
S&P SmallCap 600
Small-Cap Funds
Five Years (%)
64.47
S&P MidCap 400
Mid-Cap Funds
Three Years (%)
S&P 500
Large-Cap Funds
73.21
78.83
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, CRSP. Data as of June 30, 2015. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index, and index returns
do not reflect expenses an investor would pay.
DISTINGUISHING THE MID-CAP SEGMENT FROM THE BROADER MARKET
The line that separates mid-cap stocks from the broader market can be drawn in
different places. For the S&P MidCap 400, candidates for inclusion are required to
have market capitalizations of USD 1.4 billion to USD 5.9 billion (the market
2
capitalization of S&P 500 constituents typically exceeds USD 5.3 billion). As of
August 2015, the total market capitalization of the S&P MidCap 400 was
approximately USD 1.5 trillion and accounted for approximately 7% of the total U.S.
stock market.
Historically, the midcap asset class has
produced greater
risk-adjusted returns
than the large-cap
segment.
More notably, a company cannot be in the S&P 500 and the S&P MidCap 400
simultaneously.
Not all mid-cap indices are so defined. For some index providers,
the mid-cap index is a subset of a better-known, large-cap composite index.
A SHARPE POINT
No performance analysis is complete without the customary Sharpe ratio
comparison, which measures the reward for each unit of risk taken. The ratio
provides deeper insight into the performance profile of the mid-cap asset class.
The S&P MidCap 400’s average monthly return from July 1991 through August 2015
was higher than that of the S&P 500 (see Exhibit 4).
More importantly, however, is
that over the same period, the S&P MidCap 400’s Sharpe ratio was 0.177 compared
with the S&P 500’s 0.144.
Exhibit 4: Risk/Reward Profiles of the S&P 500 and the S&P MidCap 400
Index
Average Monthly Return (%)
Standard Deviation (%)
Sharpe Ratio
S&P 500
0.82
4.17
0.144
S&P MidCap 400
1.08
4.81
0.177
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data from July 31, 1991, through Aug. 31, 2015.
Table is provided for
illustrative purposes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
BETTER BETA
Historical data shows something particularly important about mid-cap performance: it
is not simply a higher-beta or more-volatile version of the large-cap segment of the
3
market. Using a crude regression model, the beta of the S&P MidCap 400 with
respect to the S&P 500 is 1.04.
This means that the upward or downward
movements of the S&P 500 tend to be magnified in the S&P MidCap 400 by a factor
of 1.04 (which is to say, hardly at all).
2
These guidelines are effective as of September 2015. The S&P U.S. Index Committee occasionally revises them upward or downward as
overall stock market values fluctuate.
3
“Beta” refers to the tendency of a stock or portfolio to magnify or diminish the movements of a market index.
A beta of 1 indicates a security
or segment is moving with the larger market. A beta of less than 1 indicates the security or segment is less volatile, and a beta of greater
than 1 is more volatile.
3
. Mid Caps: A Sweet Spot for Performance
September 2015
From July 1991 through August 2015, there were 187 up months (months with
positive total returns) and the S&P 500 posted an average return of 3.21% (see
Exhibit 5). During those same months, the S&P MidCap 400’s average return was
3.59%—an average difference of 38 bps. In the 102 down months (months with
negative total returns), the difference between the average performance of the S&P
500 (-3.55%) and the S&P MidCap 400 (-3.54%) was negligible.
Exhibit 5: Average Monthly Performance
4.0%
The mid-cap
segment is not
simply a higher-beta
version of the largecap segment.
3.59%
3.21%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-3.55%
-4.0%
Up Months
-3.54%
Down Months
S&P 500
S&P MidCap 400
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data from July 31, 1991, through Aug.
31, 2015. Chart is provided for
illustrative purposes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
PERFORMANCE BREADTH
®
A look across the 10 Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS ) sectors within
the S&P 500 and the S&P MidCap 400 offers even more credence to the mid-cap
segment’s superior performance profile.
S&P MidCap 400 sectors outperformed 8 of
their 10 S&P 500 counterparts. This suggests that the mid-cap segment not only
delivered more reliable performance during the periods studied (outperformance in
multiple periods), but it also outshined the large-cap segment in performance breadth
(outperformance across sectors). Consumer staples has the largest performance
spread (see Exhibit 6), with the S&P MidCap 400 outperforming the S&P 500 by
5.3% in annualized total return from January 1995 through August 2015.
Financials
and information technology had the second- and third-largest spreads, at 4.7% and
4.3%, respectively.
4
. Mid Caps: A Sweet Spot for Performance
September 2015
Exhibit 6: Annualized Total Returns
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Compared with the
large-cap segment,
the mid-cap
segment delivered
better returns during
the periods studied
in most sectors with
comparatively lower
risk.
S&P 500
S&P MidCap 400
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Annualized total returns from Dec. 30, 1994 through Aug. 31, 2015.
Chart is
provided for illustrative purposes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
CONCLUSION
Compared with the large-cap segment, mid caps delivered better returns in most
sectors with comparatively lower risk during the periods studied. This performance is
no guarantee of future results, but the historical record of the S&P MidCap 400
makes it an intriguing candidate for investors to consider.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
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SPIVA Scorecard, visit www.spdji.com.
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Mid Caps: A Sweet Spot for Performance
September 2015
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