2017 Outlook
Opportunities in non-traditional fixed income
and structured credit
Covered Topics
→→ Key drivers of the U.S. fixed income markets in 2017
→→ Views on the economy and interest rates with the new
administration
Contributors
Sreeni Prabhu
Chief Investment Officer
Brad Friedlander
Head Portfolio Manager
→→ Outlook for the mortgage credit market
Navid Abghari
Senior Portfolio Manager
→→ A deeper dive into floating rate loans and CLOs
Sam Dunlap
Senior Portfolio Manager
→→ Impact of the commercial real estate (CRE) market on
Matt Kennedy, CFA
Senior Portfolio Manager
CMBS in 2017
→→ Overall outlook for high yield bonds in today’s economy
→→ A look at investment-grade bonds, financial credits and
community bank sub-debt
Berkin Kologlu
Senior Portfolio Manager
Kin Lee
Senior Portfolio Manager
Colin McBurnette
Portfolio Manager
Clayton Triick, CFA
Portfolio Manager
1
. What have been the main drivers for the U.S. fixed income markets
in 2016, and what do you feel will be the key drivers in 2017?
14%
140%
13%
130%
12%
120%
11%
110%
10%
100%
9%
90%
8%
80%
7%
70%
6%
60%
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
U.S. Household Debt to Disposable Income Ratio
We expect the U.S. economic outlook to be favorable
if the Trump administration delivers on market
expectations of tax cuts, corporate tax reform,
large scale fiscal stimulus, and major deregulation
("Trumponomics").
We believe Trumponomics will
FIGURE 2: U.S. HOUSEHOLD SPENDING CAPACITY
U.S. Household Debt Service Ratio
What are your general
thoughts and outlook for
the U.S.
economy in a
Trump administration, and
whom do you expect to be
the industry winners?
Yield
S&P 500 Total Return
FIGURE 1: S&P COMPARED WITH 10-YR TREASURY
2016 was a tale of two halves and two completely
unexpected election results. The first half was driven
2016 Performance
by worries of a corporate credit default cycle led by
commodity-related credits, fears of a U.S. recession,
3.0%
15.0%
and a Chinese currency devaluation, all of which led
to a major risk-off environment.
Equities and other
risk assets were off to a tumultuous start in 2016.
2.5%
10.0%
The S&P total return index was down as much as
10.27% as of February 11 (Figure 1), marking the
2.0%
5.0%
worst start of all time. Risk assets began to recover by
the summer, but the Brexit vote surprised all market
participants and some feared the worst. The bid for
1.5%
0.0%
risk-free assets surged on the heels of Brexit, with
11/8 – Trump Elected
7/5 – 10-YR
the 10-year note yield closing at a 1.37% yield on
Treasury Low (1.37%)
1.0%
-5.0%
July 8, the lowest in its history.
“Lower for longer”
6/23 – Brexit
seemed here to stay, although ironically Brexit was
actually the catalyst for risk-on trades in the second
0.5%
-10.0%
half of 2016. The economic data began to improve
S&P 500 TR (LA)
2/11 – S&P 500
in the U.S., recession worries began to subside,
Low (-10.27%)
10-YR Treasury Rate (RA)
equities began to rise, commodities recovered,
-15.0%
0.0%
credit spreads began to tighten, and risk-free rates
Source: Bloomberg
began to rise off post-Brexit lows. “Lower for longer”
was still the widely held expectation in the U.S.
prior to the November election, but the Trump victory changed everything heading into year-end.
Inflation and growth expectations
completely changed, and the risk-free term structure repriced accordingly. We believe reflationary macro trends will continue in
earnest in 2017, buoyed by the rekindling of animal spirits thanks to the surprise Trump victory. The election outcome is expected to
pour gas on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) inflation fire smoldering throughout the post-crisis period, through greater
fiscal expansion, tax cuts, and deregulation-driven credit expansion.
It is still too early to predict what effect a Trump administration
will have, but expectations are high. All the above will be beneficial for our strategies as they should all drive higher-than-expected
inflation and growth in 2017. Our short effective duration profile should continue to benefit performance as U.S.
risk-free rates rise,
driven by increased inflation and growth expectations in 2017. Tax cuts and fiscal expansion should keep credit spreads stable to tighter
throughout the year as corporate earnings and ever-improving consumer balance sheets outweigh the effects of higher interest rates.
U.S. Household Debt Service Ratio (LA)
Source: Bloomberg
U.S.
Household Debt to Disposable Income Ratio (RA)
2
. be the final potent cocktail to rid the U.S. of the bitter taste of
deflation and anemic growth. The post-crisis expansion, now
in its 77th month, still has a long way to go as the consumer
credit box expands. Seventy percent of the U.S.
economy is
related to consumer spending, and wages have finally begun to
outpace inflation seven years into the recovery. Additionally,
household leverage is at its lowest level since 2002 (Figure 2).
Consumer credit expansion through mortgage credit has been
hindered due to tightening credit standards, but residential
mortgage guidelines have finally begun to relax (Figure 3). The
coming consumer credit expansion, coupled with the potential
of Trumponomics, will have some clear winners and losers.
We
believe the winners could include risk assets that perform well
in inflationary environments, such as equities, real estate, real
estate-backed assets, floating rate securities, short duration
assets, and high current carry credit spread assets. We believe the
losers could be duration-sensitive assets, particularly negatively
convex fixed income products such as agency mortgages.
FIGURE 3: MORTGAGE CREDIT LENDING REMAINS TIGHT, BUT IS LOOSENING
770
760
750
740
730
720
710
700
Newly Originated Weighted Average FICO Score
Source: Morgan Stanley
What are your views on U.S. interest rates in 2017, and looking
across the fixed income landscape, what do you feel will be the key
themes in finding attractive risk-adjusted returns in a potentially
rising interest rate environment?
With this rate view in mind, three overarching themes will
drive portfolio positioning across our strategies:
1.
8%
FIGURE 4: SPREAD VS.
DURATION-RELATIVE VALUE
Yield
7%
Spread / Discount Margin
We believe the FOMC will prove to be more hawkish than
expected in 2017, marking the first time in the post-crisis
period the FOMC will have been more hawkish than
market participants. Higher headline inflation data should
begin to pressure longer duration assets as the reset of
higher year-over-year crude prices flows through. Market
participants could begin to price in more than the two
FOMC hikes currently anticipated in 2017 if the growth and
inflation data begins to surprise to the upside.
We expect
this will lead to a higher yet slightly flatter risk-free curve
in the U.S. with rates increasing approximately 50-75 bps.
Minimize interest rate sensitivity with a bias toward
floating rate credit assets
2. Overweight structured credit relative to traditional
U.S. fixed income
6%
BBB- CMBS
5%
4%
Non-Prime Residential Loans
NA RMBS
3%
BBB CLO
BBB- Community Bank Sub-Debt
HY Corp
2%
IG Corp
Barclays Finance Baa Index
1%
0%
0
2
4
6
8
Average Life (Years)
10
12
Source: Angel Oak Capital, Wells Fargo, and Yield Book
Spread equivalent swap rate as of 12/31/16
3. Target less-levered sectors with positive credit fundamentals
Therefore, we remain overweight non-agency mortgage credit through both legacy floating rate non-agency residential mortgage-backed
securities (NA RMBS) and new non-prime residential mortgage loans.
Legacy NA RMBS remains attractive due to floating rate coupons, deeply
discounted dollar prices, and appreciating collateral. Non-prime newly originated loans stand out for their underwriting quality, low LTVs, and
historically wide credit spreads. Both sectors stand to potentially benefit from an inflationary growth environment driven by Trumponomics.
3
.
Targeted opportunities currently exist in non-agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (NA CMBS) and collateralized loan obligations
(CLOs) due to their recent underperformance relative to corporate credit. While corporate credit outperformed in 2016, many areas of
structured credit lagged over the same time period. In particular, BBB- investment-grade tranches of CMBS are attractive relative to BBB
corporates. For example, BBB- CMBS spreads are 450 bps wider than BBB corporate bonds, and 200 bps more than the trailing two-year
average.
CLOs also represent relative value due to their floating rate structure and wide spreads relative to traditional corporate credit,
particularly BBB-, BB-, and AAA-rated tranches. Within high yield and investment-grade corporate credit, we favor specific sectors that we
believe should benefit under a new policy regime, including regional financial credit, home builders, and building materials companies.
What developments do you see occurring in the mortgage credit
market in 2017?
FIGURE 5: HISTORICAL U.S. MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES
With or without Trumponomics, we believe the legacy NA
RMBS market in 2017 should continue to benefit from the
strong fundamental tailwinds of the broad-based housing
market recovery, improving credit performance, historically
low mortgage rates (Figure 5), and favorable supply/
demand technicals.
These tailwinds for the asset class
could strengthen even further if Trumponomics comes to
fruition. The expected pickup in growth from fiscal stimulus
and tax cuts would be very positive for the U.S. consumer
and borrower.
Most important, the deregulatory aspects of
Trumponomics may be even more beneficial to the legacy NA
RMBS market.
14
12
10
(%)
8
6
4
2
0
12-Month Voluntary Prepayment Rate (%)
Housing Price Index Loan-to-Value (%)
Significant deregulation would be expected to expand the
credit box, which has been historically tight since the financial
crisis. If the credit box were to expand, the ability for creditconstrained legacy NA RMBS borrowers to refinance would
U.S. Effective Rate of Interest on Mortgage Debt Outstanding
improve.
More flexible credit standards and the fundamentals
Source: Bloomberg
mentioned above are most noticeable in the prepayment
activity in our NA RMBS (Figure 6). The broad-based housing
recovery has resulted in solid improvement in home prices in
FIGURE 6: LEGACY NON-AGENCY RMBS VPR & LTV
the U.S. The combined effect of home price appreciation
110
9
and ongoing amortization has resulted in the Federal
Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index adjusted
105
loan-to-value (HPI LTV) reaching parity with purchase
8
100
price LTVs.
This has improved legacy NA RMBS borrowers’
ability to refinance and has increased housing turnover
95
7
in the U.S. (e.g., moving, upsizing, or downsizing homes).
Increased refinance and housing turnover activity in the
90
U.S. is illustrated by the increased voluntary prepayment
6
85
rate (VPR) of our legacy holdings.
The weighted average
market price of the legacy NA RMBS allocation is still at
80
5
a significant discount to par; therefore, an increase in
75
VPRs improves the yield of our holdings. Moreover, VPRs
increase the bond principal cash flow, which shortens the
70
4
weighted average life (WAL). In our view, this will be the
Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct -13 Apr -14 Oct -14 Apr -15 Oct -15 Apr -16 Oct -16
catalyst for increased appreciation in the legacy NA RMBS
HPI LTV (LA)
12M VPR (RA)
allocation.
As market expectations for VPRs increase, WALs
Source:Bloomberg; Angel Oak
shrink, and discount margins increase, market participants
will be willing to pay higher dollar prices. This opportunity
is best captured through floating rate below-investment-grade legacy NA RMBS, where improving economic scenarios and ratings upgrades should
lead to potentially attractive risk-adjusted total returns over the next two to three years.
4
. FIGURE 7: RELATIVE VALUE – LEGACY NON-AGENCY RMBS
375
325
Basis Points
We expect 2018
will most likely
be the first year of
positive net supply
in the NA RMBS
market.
425
275
225
175
125
75
Jan-14
Jun-14
Jumbo Fixed
Nov-14
Apr -15
Sep-15
Alt-A Floater
Feb-16
Option
Jul-16
Dec -16
BAML A Corp
Source: Bloomberg
In addition to the fundamental tailwinds, the favorable supply and demand technicals have continued to benefit the NA RMBS market
(Figure 7). The outstanding NA RMBS market is approximately $700 billion. At a conditional prepayment rate (CPR) of 15%, paydowns
would be approximately $105 billion in 2017. New NA RMBS issuance is expected to be approximately $62 billion in 2017, resulting in
negative net new issuance of approximately $43 billion.
While we expect the market to shrink in 2017, the good news is the NA RMBS
market is re-emerging, and we expect 2018 will most likely be the first year of positive net supply in the NA RMBS market. The current
supply forecast for new issue NA RMBS in 2017 is expected to consist of the following:
NA RMBS New Issue
2016 ($ billions)
2017 ($ billions)*
Single Family Rental (SFR)
5
7
Credit Risk Transfer (CRT)
13
15
9
10
NPL/RPL
30
30
Total
57
62
NA RMBS 2.0
While we expect the market to shrink in
2017, the good news is the NA RMBS market
is re-emerging, and we expect 2018 will
most likely be the first year of positive net
supply in the NA RMBS market.
*Source: Morgan Stanley
Most mortgage credit subsectors are currently attractive from a relative value perspective, but newly originated non-prime mortgages
and recent securitizations of these assets are especially interesting. As an example, Angel Oak’s most recent securitization, AOMT
2016-1, consists primarily of non-prime, non-qualified mortgage collateral with the following characteristics:
FICO*
WAC*
LTV*
DTI*
697
6.90%
74%
37%
*At origination
Source: Angel Oak
AOMT 2016-1 exhibits the favorable credit characteristics typical of the newly originated non-prime market.
We expect this subsector
will continue to offer considerable relative value for years to come, particularly in the lower parts of the capital structure. Moreover,
the non-prime new issue NA RMBS market is poised to be the fastest growing subsector of the new issue market. Finally, another area
of interest is the securitized non-performing loan market (NPL).
Principal loss to the senior tranches of NPL pools is low and the short
duration characteristics provide significant risk-adjusted total return outperformance potential in 2017.
5
. $6 billion moved into floating rate bank loan funds in the second
half of 2016. Do you expect this trend to continue, and how would
this impact the CLO market?
The percentage of loans trading above par is typically
a strong indicator of refinancing activity in the loan
market, and we expect this activity to continue in 2017,
pushing prepayment speeds higher. This is a major
challenge for loan investors and certainly one where
the CLO market differentiates itself, because CLOs have
good call protection and shortening maturities mean
higher yields given discounted prices in mezzanine
tranches of CLOs.
The technical picture for loans is expected to remain
strong. Issuance should remain relatively muted due
to limited M&A activity and regulatory pressure on
underwriters, while demand continues to be high as
investors look for floating rate exposure.
A stronger loan
market is a good catalyst for spread tightening in CLOs.
CLO creation will remain challenging, creating scarcity
value, and as a result new deals will need to be issued at
tighter spreads to make the economics work.
FIGURE 8: U.S. LOAN FUND HISTORICAL AUM
200
Loan Fund AUM ($B)
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16
Source: Wells Fargo
Loan Fund AUM
FIGURE 9: LEVERAGED LOAN MATURITIES
250
200
Maturities ($B)
High yield loan funds saw $6.8 billion of inflows
in 2016, which was a 6.1% increase in AUM and
represented the third-largest inflow (as a percentage
of assets) across all asset classes (Figure 8).* Even
during the risk-off move in early 2016, the bank
loan market held up remarkably well, especially
considering high yield bond spreads were nearing
credit crisis levels. This was an indication of positive
market technicals in the loan space as a majority of
bank loans are held by CLOs, which are never subject
to forced selling due to mark-to-market moves.
Also,
loan mutual fund outflows from fast-money reactive
investors had already occurred in previous years,
leaving a more stable investor base. Given this lack
of forced selling, good quality loans did not sell off
as much and larger price declines were contained
within the commodities sectors. The end of 2016 saw
a large chunk of money moving back into bank loan
mutual funds, and the likelihood of an even larger bid
for SMA allocations has pushed loan prices to new
highs.
Large overseas buyers have started investing
in this market as well, and better credit continues
to rally, with approximately two-thirds of the loan
market trading above par.
150
100
50
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
*Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
6
. What will be the drivers of CLO performance in 2017?
Following sharp declines in early 2016, the CLO market bounced back in a big way with spreads finishing at their tights for the year
across the entire capital structure. Still, on a relative basis, CLO spreads look attractive as there is room for further improvement given
post-crisis tights that were set in the early part of 2015. CLO tranches generally lagged the fund flow-driven rally we saw in corporate
bonds (both IG and HY) in 2016 and still remain cheap relative to high yield loans.
Our reasons for optimism on CLO performance are several. The macro picture supports being long credit risk.
Although there is a lot
of uncertainty, the potential for fiscal stimulus, tax reform, and a decrease in regulatory pressure points in the direction of economic
growth. These potential changes lead us to believe that inflationary pressures will increase. Economic growth is a fundamental positive
for owning U.S.
corporates.
Furthermore, three-month LIBOR currently sits at approximately 1%, and we believe the potential for further Fed hikes in 2017 will
continue to generate demand for floating rate assets. As a result, we expect relative outperformance versus corporate bonds that have
already experienced huge spread tightening and have limited ability to absorb rate increases via further tightening.
The fundamentals of U.S. credit look more typical of the end of a business cycle, with leverage on balance sheets relatively high.
Interest coverage is still in good shape, and any stress from higher borrowing costs appears to be manageable given current earnings
levels, and certainly so if earnings growth materializes.
Importantly, companies continue to push maturities forward, with refinancing
risk not material until 2019. In this kind of environment it is unlikely that we will see a broad-based spike in default rates.
We discussed the favorable technical picture in the high yield loan market and the secondary effect of limited CLO issuance, likely
below the 2016 new issuance amount of $72 billion for U.S. CLOs, which was already close to a 30% decline when compared with 2015
issuance.
The new risk retention rules requiring CLO managers to bring capital to the table will also be a hindrance for CLO issuance.
Just 50% of CLO managers already have risk retention solutions but others are highly likely to follow, as capital is a scarce resource and
will become a factor in the ability to do more deals. The CLO market broadened in appeal in 2016 with a large number of new investors
coming into the fold. Our estimate is that close to 50% of new issuance went into non-U.S.
buyer accounts. In addition to this, investors
with sticky capital, such as pension funds, insurance companies, and private equity and wealth funds, made allocations to the space in
2016. The broadening of the buyer base and shift in composition of capital from fast money to longer term capital may benefit the CLO
market.
Spread pickup relative to comparable asset classes, high floating rate carry, structural protections against defaults, and upside
under early redemption scenarios are all features that make CLOs attractive.
While CLO tranches further down the capital structure exhibit a high beta relative to corporate credit
spreads, we believe investors are compensated well for these risks and expect allocations to the sector
will continue, especially in investment-grade tranches where we see strong real-money sponsorship.
How is the pervading negativity in the commercial real estate
market impacting CMBS, and do you expect that to continue?
CMBS experienced high spread volatility in 2016, which resulted in the sector underperforming the broader fixed income market. For
example, CMBS conduit 3.0 BBB- bonds finished the year with an approximately -1% total return [Source: GS Economics Research]. A
disappointing second half of 2015 resulted in CMBS starting 2016 at attractively wide levels.
However, through the first half of 2016,
spreads continued to widen in sympathy with macro concerns and Brexit. Unlike other credit sensitive assets in the second half of 2016,
CMBS spreads remained stubbornly wide until the Trump election victory, when the increase in the 10-year Treasury yield brought in
yield buyers. This additional sponsorship resulted in spreads tightening in the fourth quarter and is a favorable tailwind for the start of
2017.
The commercial real estate headlines did little to help CMBS spreads in 2016.
Headwinds included the negative implications of e-commerce
for the bricks-and-mortar retail sector and the upcoming maturity of approximately $228 billion of 2007 CMBS originations. As a result,
investors began demanding higher risk premiums for deals that exhibited less favorable credit characteristics. Market participants also
began to differentiate between deals.
BBB- rated bond spreads priced in a range of approximately 425 bps to 700 bps in 2016.
7
. FIGURE 10: RELATIVE VALUE – CMBS BBB- SPREAD VS. IG CORP SPREAD
750
650
550
CMBS BBB- vs. IG Corp
Basis Points
In our view, we are in the sixth inning of the maturity wall
and this is not a new concern for the marketplace. CMBS
issuance in 2005 and 2006 was $166 billion and $198
billion, respectively.
The payoff rate for loans maturing in
2016 is already 85%. There should be more than enough
capacity between the CMBS lenders, banks, insurance
companies, and other financial companies to absorb the
remaining wave of maturities. Over the past two years,
the market has moved away from relying as heavily on the
CMBS market to refinance maturing loans.
CMBS lending
accounted for over 25% of commercial real estate lending
in 2014, but by 2016 it had fallen to approximately 7%
of that market as banks filled the void. In addition, the
implementation of risk retention will be a constructive
development for the asset class.
450
350
Average
250
150
50
Spread Differential CMBS (BBB) vs. IG OAS
-
We believe well-diversified investment-grade tranches
of NA CMBS offer compelling relative value in 2017 and
are poised to tighten back to historical averages on the
heels of a strengthening economy.
From a performance
perspective, if spreads on NA CMBS retrace half of their
widening from 2014 levels, this asset class could deliver
attractive total returns over the next year.
Average Spread Differential CMBS (BBB) vs. IG OAS
-
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
What is your outlook for high yield bonds in 2017 after such strong
returns in 2016?
After two consecutive years of subpar returns, the high yield asset class had its best annual return since 2009. Although we aren’t
expecting a repeat of the double digit returns of 2016, we are expecting high yield to have a respectable year in 2017, supported by
current valuations and expectations for a pickup in economic growth in an environment of rising interest rates.
Interestingly, the current characteristics of the market are similar to those seen in early 2013, a year in which high yield generated a
return of 7.42%.
The yield-to-worst on the index was 6.11% compared with 6.17% currently. Credit spreads were 526 bps compared
with 422 bps currently, but they tightened to 400 bps during the year and continued to tighten to their post-crisis low of 335 bps in
mid-2014. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 1.76% compared with 2.45% today but rose to finish the year at 3.03%, which is at the
high end of the range in which consensus estimates currently expect it to finish in 2017.
Today’s economic environment is fundamentally
sounder than in early 2013, with unemployment at 4.6% and inflation trending toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The incoming
administration’s aggressive goals of accelerating economic growth via increased fiscal spending on infrastructure, deregulation, and tax
reform appear conducive to further spread tightening in 2017 and support our return expectations.
From a relative value perspective, high yield continues to look attractive. The Bank of America U.S.
High Yield index credit spread
tightened 273 bps in 2016 to 422 bps. Given current employment conditions, wage gains, and expected improvement in economic
growth, we think high yield spreads can continue to tighten toward their post-crisis tights of 335 bps. Relative to price-to-earnings
multiples on the S&P 500, high yield valuations look very reasonable in light of our expectations for revenue and earnings.
The S&P
500’s trailing four-quarter price-to-earnings ratio is at 21x, and 17x estimated 2017 earnings. Based on consensus estimates, these
valuations already reflect earnings growth of more than 9% and 12% in 2016 and 2017, respectively, which would be the strongest
earnings growth since 2010 and 2011. Credit spreads on investment-grade corporate bonds as measured by the Bank of America Merrill
Lynch U.S.
Corporate Index are currently 130 bps relative to a total yield of 3.40%. This is only 44 bps more than their post-crisis tights
of 86 bps, leaving little room for spread compression to mitigate the negative effect of a move higher in interest rates. This compares
with high yield, where the yield is currently 6.17% with a credit spread of 422 bps, the combination of which could absorb the expected
increase in interest rates and still generate positive total returns.
Any credit spread tightening supports our positive outlook for high
yield returns in 2017.
8
. Given the expectations of a pickup in economic growth, higher inflation, gradually rising interest rates, and a stronger U.S. dollar, we
are focused on sectors and issuers that can be competitive and prosper within that environment. As an example, we are favoring sectors
that are less susceptible to imports, such as telecommunications. With expectations for continued employment improvements and wage
gains combined with financial deregulation and less restrictive lending requirements, we also like issuers that we believe could benefit
from a pickup in new home construction, including home builders and building materials companies.
Within your investment-grade corporate allocation, why are you
overweight financial credits, particularly regional and community
bank subordinated debt?
In the wake of the financial crisis, banks are more stable
FIGURE 11: BANK SUBORDINATED DEBT
due to higher capital requirements and increased
regulatory oversight.
In contrast to the broader
16
corporate sector, where leverage has steadily increased
15
to record levels, the banking sector today has 30%
14
more equity capital than in 2007. Banks also face far
13
more punitive requirements for taking riskier assets
12
onto their balance sheets, which has resulted in
(%) 11
improved asset quality, as measured by a consistent
decline in non-performing assets and charge-offs.
10
The outlook for banks is also particularly favorable.
9
First, higher interest rates are likely to have a positive
8
impact on bank earnings, especially the regional and
7
community banks. As rates rise, assets of smaller banks
6
tend to reprice faster than their liabilities, resulting
Q1-96
Q3-98
Q1-01
Q3-03
Q1-06
Q3-08
Q1-11
Q3-13
Q1-16
in an increased net interest margin.
Second, with the
new Trump regime, bankers are likely to see some
Tier 1 Common Capital (CET1) Risk-Based Ratio
Total Capital Ratio
regulatory relief. The additional regulatory burden
Tier 1 Leverage Ratio
that bankers have had to endure since the economic
Source: SNL
downturn has been overwhelming and has come at a
significant cost. Any regulatory relief is likely to result
in cost savings and enhanced efficiencies.
Finally, as highlighted above, we expect the U.S. economic outlook to be very favorable if the Trump
administration delivers on its promise of a large scale fiscal stimulus. Banks are likely to be among the biggest benefactors of such stimulus.
We believe the attractive spreads available for regional and community bank sub-debt offer one of the most compelling risk-reward
opportunities in fixed income today.
While super-regional and global banks tend to trade at credit spreads in the range of 100-150 bps,
smaller regional and community banks of similar credit profile trade at credit spread of 350-500 bps.
In the wake of the financial crisis, banks are more stable due to higher capital requirements and
increased regulatory oversight.
9
. © 2017 Angel Oak Capital Advisors, which is the advisor to the Angel Oak Funds
Must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. To obtain an electronic copy of the prospectus, please visit www.angeloakcapital.com.
Mutual fund investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. The Funds can make short sales of securities, which involves the risk that losses in securities
may exceed the original amount invested.
Leverage, which may exaggerate the effect of any increase or decrease in the value of securities in a Fund’s portfolio on the Fund’s Net Asset Value and therefore may increase the volatility of a Fund. Investments in foreign securities involve greater volatility and political,
economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. These risks are increased for emerging markets.
Investments in fixed income instruments
typically decrease in value when interest rates rise. Derivatives involve risks different from and, in certain cases, greater than the risks presented by more
traditional investments. Investments in asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities include additional risks that investors should be aware of, such as credit risk, prepayment risk, possible illiquidity and default, as well as increased susceptibility to adverse economic developments.
Investments in lower-rated
and nonrated securities presents a greater risk of loss to principal and interest than higher-rated securities. A non-diversified fund may be more susceptible
to being adversely affected by a single corporate, economic, political or regulatory occurrence than a diversified fund. Funds will incur higher and duplicative
costs when they invest in mutual funds, ETFs, and other investment companies.
There is also the risk that the Funds may suffer losses due to the investment
practices of the underlying funds. For more information on these risks and other risks of the Funds, please see the Prospectus.
Opinions expressed are as of 12/31/16 and are subject to change at any time, are not guaranteed, and should not be considered investment advice.
The Angel Oak Funds are distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect from loss in a declining market.
Earnings growth is not a measure of a Fund’s future performance.
Fund holdings and/or sector allocations are subject to change at any time and are not recommendations to buy or sell any security.
The Funds did not hold any of the securities mentioned as of 12/31/16.
ARM: Adjustable-rate mortgage.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Index: Tracks the performance of below investment grade, but not in default, U.S.
dollar denominated corporate bonds publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market, and includes issues with a credit rating of BBB or below, as rated by Moody’s and S&P.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. IG Bond Index: Tracks the performance of U.S.
dollar denominated investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued
in the U.S. domestic market. Qualifying securities must have an investment-grade rating (based on an average of Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch), at least 18
months to final maturity at the time of issuance, at least one year remaining term to final maturity as of the rebalancing date, a fixed coupon schedule,
and a minimum amount outstanding of $250 million.
Barclays Finance Baa Index: The index is the Baa component of the U.S.
Credit Bond Index. The index includes publicly issued U.S. corporate and specified
foreign debentures and secured notes that meet the specified maturity, liquidity, and quality requirements.
To qualify, bonds must be SEC-registered.
Basis Point (bps): One hundredth of 1%; used to denote the percentage change in a financial instrument.
Beta: A measure of a security’s sensitivity to market movements.
Cash Flow: The net amount of cash and cash equivalents being transferred into and out of a business, especially as affecting liquidity.
Collateralized loan obligation (CLO): A security backed by a portfolio of senior-secured floating rate loans made to corporations.
Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS): CMBS are backed by pools of individual commercial mortgages. The payments from all of the individual
commercial mortgages are distributed to the holder of the commercial mortgage security. Securities are structured into tranches with the higher rated
securities receiving payments first and the lower rated securities taking losses first.
Community bank sub-debt: Subordinated debentures of financial institutions with total assets of less than $20 billion.
Credit spread: The difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality.
DTI: Debt-to-income.
Duration: Measures a portfolio’s sensitivity to changes in interest rates.
Generally, the longer the effective duration, the greater the price change relative
to interest rate movements.
Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index: A broad measure of the movement of single-family house prices in the U.S. Apart from serving as an
indicator of house price trends, the House Price Index (HPI) provides an analytical tool for estimating changes in the rates of mortgage defaults, prepayments, and housing affordability.
FICO: The Fair Isaac Corporation, more commonly known as FICO, is best known for producing the most widely used consumer credit scores that financial
institutions use in deciding whether to lend money or issue credit.
Household Debt Service Ratio: An estimate of the ratio of debt payments to disposable personal income.
M&A: Mergers and acquisitions.
NPL: Non-performing loan.
Non-agency RMBS: Mortgage-backed securities sponsored by private companies other than government sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae or Freddie
Mac. Securities are structured into tranches with the higher rated securities receiving payments first and the lower rated securities taking losses first.
Non-prime residential loans: Loans where the borrower’s FICO score is below 680.
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E Ratio): The ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings.
RPL: Re-performing loan.
S&P 500 Index: An American stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.
Swap rate: The fixed rate that a receiver demands in exchange for the uncertainty of having to pay the short-term LIBOR (floating) rate over time.
At any
given time, the market’s forecast of what LIBOR will be in the future is reflected in the forward LIBOR curve.
Tranche: A portion of debt or structured financing. Each portion, or tranche, is one of several related securities offered at the same time but with different
risks, rewards, and maturities.
WAC: Weighted average coupon.
Yield-to-Worst (YTW): The lowest yield an investor can expect when investing in a callable bond.
Learn more at AngelOakCapital.com
info@angeloakcapital.com
Toll Free: 888.685.2915
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